Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 271849
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1249 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

SNOW HAS STARTED OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF ND...ALTHOUGH MORE IS
SHOWING UP ON RADAR THAN REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS POINT.
STILL...WITH KISN SHOWING VIS DOWN TO 1SM IN SNOW THINK WE SHOULD
GET A DECENT BAND MOVING IN BY THIS EVENING. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR MODELS TRENDING A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WILL WAIT FOR ECMWF AND NEW MESO MODEL RUNS BEFORE
FINAL ADJUSTMENTS AND CHANGES TO HEADLINES. ALSO BUMPED UP HIGHS A
BIT IN THE CENTRAL CWA AND DOWN A BIT IN THE EAST BASED ON CURRENT
TEMP TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 958 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TIMING OF CLOUDS AND SNOW MOVING IN
LATER IN THE DAY. THINK THAT IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET UNTIL AFTER
00Z...WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW TONIGHT THEN CONTINUATION OF
ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT...AND PREFER THE NAM THAT HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL START OUT VERY COLD WITH TEMPS BELOW ZERO. WE
COULD GET INTO WIND CHILL ADVY CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING...BUT WITH WINDS UNDER 10 MPH WON/T ISSUE HEADLINE ATTM.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT A
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR
WEST...BUT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND VERY COLD WITH HIGH IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET WILL
COINCIDE WITH STRONG WAA IN THE 850-700MB LAYER AND FGEN. THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN ORGANIZED BAND OF SNOW THAT SHOULD FOCUS ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A BAND OF 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW
FROM DVL- GFK INTO BJI AREA...AND THERE COULD BE A LOCALIZED
REPORT OF 5. THIS COUPLED WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
25MPH OVERNIGHT...COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING
SNOW IF WINDS INCREASE A BIT MORE. WE WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STARTING 00Z IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...THEN AT 03Z FROM
GFK-BJI CORRIDOR AND RUN IT UNTIL 18Z FRI TO CAPTURE THIS FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIP. TEMPS WILL WARM ENOUGH IN THE FAR SOUTH FOR SOME
MIXED PRECIP LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS THE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOULD END FRIDAY MORNING AND LINGER A BIT INTO FRI AFTERNOON IN
THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

FOR FRI NIGHT...WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE NORTH AND THERE COULD
BE MIXED PRECIP IN THE NORTHER 2/3 OF THE REGION. EXPECT MOST OF
THE MEASURABLE QPF TO BE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND IN
CANADA...NEAR THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE. TEMPS SHOULD WARM ON SAT
AND COULD REACH NEAR FREEZING...PERHAPS INTO THE MID 30S IN THE
SOUTH IF THERE IS ANY INSOLATION AT ALL. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL...SO SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

ON SAT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
BY SAT EVENING. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SOME BLOWING SNOW GIVEN
THE CLASSIC ARCTIC TYPE SOUNDINGS AND SOME MOISTURE AVAILABLE...SO
MORE POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS IN OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. A 1040MB SFC HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE DAKOTAS...WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH LOWERING
THICKNESS VALUES. HOWEVER...THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE SHORT LIVED
AS THE UPPER PATTERN CHANGES AGAIN. THE UPPER TROF ROTATES E ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE TO REBOUND...AND RETURN
FLOW BEHIND THE SFC RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. ANOTHER WAVE CROSSES THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN AND ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF
COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND BRING MVFR TO IFR CIGS
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECLINE IN DVL AROUND 00Z...THE RED RIVER VALLEY AROUND 03Z...AND
INTO SITES IN NORTHWEST MN (BJI/TVF) BY MIDNIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW WILL KEEP VSBYS AND CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH 12Z TO 15Z
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     FRIDAY FOR NDZ008-016-027-030.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     FRIDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-026-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     FRIDAY FOR MNZ001-002-004-007-008-013>017-022>024-027-028-
     031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...SPEICHER






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