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000
FXUS63 KFGF 222357
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
657 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BECOMES MORE SO AS RIDGE
AND TROUGH AMPLIFIES A BIT. COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOW IN THE FIFTIES.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALSO IN THE FIFTIES. WILL LOOK AT TEMPS AT NEXT
UPDATE. TWEAKED WINDS UP A BIT FOR TONIGHT BUT STILL LIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO MOVE OVERHEAD BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

CHALLENGES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE TEMPS AND CLOUDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS SE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WITH LITTLE MIXING AND GOOD
CLEARING WILL SEE EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING OVERNIGHT. CENTER OF
THE HIGH REMAINS IN S MANITOBA SO SOME MIXING EXISTS AND WILL NOT
MENTION ANY FOG IN THE GRIDS...EVEN WITH THE HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS
FROM LAST NIGHTS STORM BUT PASS ALONG THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT
SHIFT.

SFC HIGH WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS FEWER CU
THAN TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY A NEAR PERFECT NORTHERN PLAINS SUMMER DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING POP CHANCES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS WESTERN FA AS PWATS/INSTABILITY ADVECT IN WITH 500MB
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENING POTENT SHORT WAVE.
INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGHEST IN WESTERN DAKOTAS AS UPPER LOW
PINWHEELS ABOVE THE ALBERTA SASKATCHEWAN BORDER THRU FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN BETTER
AGREEMENT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD RATHER THAN AT THE BEGINNING AS
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT ONCE MORE TO AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS A BIT FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF AND THE GEM IN BETWEEN. WITH A FAIRLY HIGH AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY...KEPT SOME 20-40 POPS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE TAPERING THEM OFF LATE SUNDAY AS EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS
THE UPPER LOW COMING THROUGH. TEMPS BY SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER
THAN SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND TEMPS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES AS WE SETTLE INTO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VISIBLE LOOP/SURFACE OBS SHOW FEW CUMULUS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. LIGHT WIND EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT UNDER A CLEAR SKY. CUMULUS SHOULD REFORM WED BY
LATE MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...HOPPES