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000
FXUS63 KFGF 021557
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
957 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

LIKE YESTERDAY TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE. ONLY
SPOT STILL IN WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA IS THE KDVL REGION DOWN
TOWARD VALLEY CITY BUT THIS WILL END PRETTY QUICKLY. WILL GO AHEAD
AND CHANGE THE WIND CHILL WARNING TO AN ADVISORY FOR EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT RANSOM COUNTY. WILL RUN THE ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT WHEN
CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE IN THE WEST AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER HUDSON BAY/QUEBEC WILL HAVE A
VORT LOBE ROTATE THROUGH ONTARIO TODAY. GETTING WARM ADVECTION WITH
VORT LOBE PASSAGE. FOG LOOP INDICATED INCREASING CLOUDS OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. SOME UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA
FORECAST TO  RETROGRADE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WATER VAPOR LOOP
VERIFIES THIS ACTIVITY.

WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR MON AND MON NIGHT AND
AGAIN TUE NIGHT WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH.

HIGH TEMPS WERE BUMPED UP A COUPLE DEGREES FOR TODAY...MON...AND IN
THE SOUTH FOR TUE. ALSO LOW TEMPS WERE INCREASED A COUPLE DEGREES
FOR TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. INCREASE LOW TEMPS IN THE SOUTH COUPLE
DEGREES FOR WED MORNING AND DECREASED A FEW DEGREES IN THE EAST WITH
FEWER CLOUDS.

INCREASED POPS MON MORNING OVER WESTERN ZONES AND INCREASED SPEED A
BIT FOR MON AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT. INCREASED SPEED OF PRECIP FOR
TUE NIGHT.

WIND CHILL WARNING CONTINUE FOR THE MORNING AND MOST AREA THIS
MORNING HAD WIND CHILLS LESS THAN 40 BELOW. SO WILL KEEP WARNING
GOING UNTIL NOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN. ZONAL TYPE FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. BEFORE THIS
TRANSITION OCCURS...THERE WILL BE A FEW SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THE
PAC NW BRINGING SNOW CHANCES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH EXACT TIMING OF
SNOW CHANCES AND AMOUNTS...AND STUCK WITH THE MODEL BLEND. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LATER IN
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TOWARD NORMAL
VALUES...ALTHOUGH STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

A CLEAR SKY WAS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME MVFR CIGS WERE LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WITH WARMER ROTATING AROUND THE SYSTEM. FOG
LOOP/SURFACE OBS SHOWED A BAND OF MVFR CIGS OVER ON THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HUDSON BAY/QUEBEC UPPER LOW. THE
CLOUDS MAY ENTER THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
MVFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-053-054.

MN...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...HOPPES