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000
FXUS63 KFGF 290904
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
304 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES. EXCEPT
FOR THE SATURDAY SYSTEM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL
MODEL PREFERENCE.

WILL END ZR HEADLINES AT FORECAST ISSUANCE. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. NO PCPN CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED BY OBS AND RADAR CLEAR. COLD
ADVECTION LEVELS OFF THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER MODELS SEEM A LITTLE
TOO QUICK IN DECREASING CLOUDS SO TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WILL BE MINIMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN THIS EVENING. WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND
RETURN FLOW AFT MIDNIGHT SHOULD SLOW TEMPERATURE DROP FROM VALLEY WEST.

WILL CONTINUE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH WEAK WAVE. WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST MILD DAY
FOR A WHILE AS COLUMN WARMS PRIOR TO CFP FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING SHARP COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MODELS DIFFER ON SNOW POTENTIAL SATURDAY. GFS/ECMWF CLIP THE
SOUTHERN FA WITH -SN WHILE NAM/GEM FARTHER NORTH. WITH
UNCERTAINTY LEFT CURRENT POPS AS IS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN. MEAN JET POSITION WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...A WEAK WAVE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR -SN...WITH THE REST OF THE PERIOD REMAINING
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CIGS AT KDVL AND KGFK HAVE GONE UP TO MVFR A BIT SOONER THAN
EXPECTED. OTHER SITES REMAIN IFR OF LOWER AND KTVF AND KBJI
CONTINUE TO REPORT SOME BR IN THE 3 TO 5 RANGE. THINK THAT
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. SPED UP THE IMPROVEMENT A BIT AND HAVE ALL SITES
BUT KBJI MVFR BY 09Z AND EVENTUALLY VFR CONDITIONS MOVING IN BY
MORNING AS THE CLOUD DECKS SEEM TO BE HIGHER UPSTREAM IN CANADA.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER BREEZY FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.

MN...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR