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428
FXUS63 KFGF 242045
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
345 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Satellite shows the 500 mb low in southeastern Minnesota.
Secondary vort max noted dropping south toward Fargo and is the
edge of an area of scattered showers/drizzle that has been
dropping south from Manitoba. This activity will focus tonight
more over northern MN as drier low level air from central into
southwestern Manitoba helps to bring some clearing to our western
fcst area overnight. Lows in this area will be in the lower 40s.
No fog is anticipated as this area has received little rain and
airmass moving in is drier. Thicker clouds and shower threat east
of the Red River, while in the RRV itself some partial clearing
psbl late tonight. Main shower threat this evening.

Sunday will another 500 mb vort max drop south-southeast northern
Manitoba into nrn Minnesota. Combined with some sunny breaks,
there should be enough forcing for isold-sct showers to form, esp
in MN. Though will have low pops west into the RRV. Milder Sunday
with highs in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

The extended looks to be quiet to start...with northwest flow
aloft and high pressure at the surface moving into the region.
Monday looks to be a beautiful day with sunny skies, light winds,
and highs in the 70s. Southerly winds increase for Tuesday with an
upper ridge moving east across the region. An upper short wave
trough will quickly follow the upper ridge...and will likely
support late afternoon/early evening thunderstorms across central
ND ahead of the associated surface low. Models hint at this
thunderstorm activity moving east from central ND and across the
forecast area overnight, reaching north-central MN late in the
night. Although the best shear will be ahead of the best
instability, some storms may be severe Tuesday night. This will be
the next chance for a large part of the region to get significant
rainfall as well.

The upper trough will likely be just moving through the region by 7
AM Wed with the ECMWF a little more progressive than the GFS. The
GFS has the surface low over BJI by 7 PM Thu, with thunderstorms on
the backside through the Red River Valley. So...there`s some
uncertainty regarding thunderstorms chances on Thursday, especially
in the RRV. After Thursday, an active pattern will keep showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast across parts of the region through
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Expect MVFR cigs GFK/DVL/TVF into the evening with locally reduced
vsbys to IFR range in drizzle. BJI area to see conditions lower
later this aftn/tonight with some IFR cigs/vsbys psbl. DVL on the
MVFR/VFR edge but will see improving conditions tonight. North to
northwest winds continue 12 to 25 kts, diminishing tonight.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...Knutsvig
AVIATION...Riddle