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507
FXUS63 KFGF 271745
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1245 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Lowered high temps under the clouds from Cavalier to Grafton to
Grand Forks to Detroit Lakes. Cloud line expected to remain nearly
stationary if not to move back to the west some as forcing from
upper wave rounds parent low over the Great Lakes. Showers ongoing
this afternoon from Lake of the Woods south to the Bemidji and
Park Rapids areas through early evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Will let current frost advisory ride...although not all areas
within the frost advisory will actually observe frost.

Potential for frost will be the main impact for this period. The
region will remain in a relatively dry airmass as the upper low to
the north of the great lakes begins to propagate southward. Water
vapor imagery indicates a stronger wave rounding the upper low
that will bring forcing/clouds/showers to areas east of the valley
today. Anticipate temperatures into the 60s with sunshine (along
and west of the valley) and mid 50s under clouds (east of the
valley). Main challenge for today will be the westward extend of
the cloud cover. For tonight...upper/lower ridging builds into
the region leading to ideal radiational cooling conditions. Most
guidance indicates dew point values mid to upper 30s...which seems
reasonable given upstream observations. These conditions should
lead to at least patchy frost where sky is clear (most likely
along and west of the valley).

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Wednesday-Thursday...Ridging dominates the pattern across the
region leading to very few impacts. The airmass will be slightly
warmer with max temps in the 60s to near 70F and min temps
remaining near 40F or slightly warmer.

Friday-Monday...The end of the work week and beginning of the
weekend will bring the last few dry and quiet days before
precipitation chances return for the second half of the period.

Upper level ridge axis will finally begin moving off to the east on
Friday and Saturday as an upper trough comes onshore near the
Pacific Northwest. Both days will bring quiet conditions with a fair
amount of sunshine as the ridge takes its time pulling away from the
area, although a bit breezy as the pressure gradient tightens
between systems.

Long range models then exhibit some disagreement on the timing and
location of the upper trough moving across the western CONUS and a
surface low developing ahead of it. Therefore, a general blend of
slight chance/chance PoPs through the end of the period will suffice
as an active pattern returns to the region.

Temperatures will continue to be a bit above average with highs in
the upper 60s/low 70s and lows upper 50s/low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

MVFR CIGS at TVF and BJI with tempo GFK this afternoon. Uncertainty
abounds with CIGS and clearing this evening into the overnight.
With SFC and 500mb ridging coming into the FA from the west will
have erosion of clouds from northwest to southeast.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/Lee
AVIATION...JK