Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KFGF 161507
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1007 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

BAND OF MID CLOUDS ACROSS MANITOBA INTO FAR NRN MN. AREA DEFINED
WELL BY LATEST RAP MODEL AND SHOWS CLOUDS HOLDING IN THAT AREA
THRU THE DAY. OTHERWISE SHOULD BE SUNNY.  TEMPS ON TRACK.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE BAND OF MID
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN FA NOW. OTHERWISE NEXT CHANCE
OF PCPN LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE DELAYED...ARRIVING MORE THU
AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT. AS MENTIONED THERE IS A BAND OF MID
CLOUDS NOW MOVING INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. MODELS KEEP
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN A NW TO SE BAND TODAY...MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE THERMAL GRADIENT AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE UNDER
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP MORE CLOUDS
MENTIONED IN THE FAR NORTH AND NE. SHOULD SEE MORE SUN IN OTHER
AREAS WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. SOME OF THESE MID
CLOUDS MAY ALSO LINGER INTO TONIGHT IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA ALONG
WITH PRETTY LIGHT WINDS. MAY EVEN BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS AROUND THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION SO DID ADD THAT TO THE
FORECAST THERE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED. THE TIGHTER THERMAL
GRADIENT ALSO PUSHES INTO THE NORTHEAST FA ON WED WHICH SHOULD
BRING A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS TO THE NORTH AND NE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

START TO SEE RETURN FLOW WED NIGHT WITH STEADY WARM ADVECTION IN
ALL AREAS. THIS WILL SET THU UP TO BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
MORE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. INCREASING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN FAIRLY BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SCALE BACK ON PCPN CHANCES SO DID REMOVE THEM FROM THE THU
MORNING TIME FRAME. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS AREA THU
AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN SFC FOCUS STILL BACK OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. 700MB TEMPS RISE TO +10C OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ND WITH VALUES A LITTLE LOWER INTO NORTHWEST MN. THIS MAY CAP ANY
CONVECTION WITH THE SFC FORCING OUT WEST. HOWEVER WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY DID KEEP WITH CONTINUITY AND LEFT THE ISOLATED THUNDER
POTENTIAL THU AFTERNOON. THE WARM 700MB TEMPS CREST OVER THE FA
THU NIGHT ALONG WITH STEADY 850MB WARM ADVECTION/INCREASING
MOISTURE VALUES. THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
FA BY FRI MORNING BRINGING A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON NIGHT...THE PERIOD WILL START WITH SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH A SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE. EACH MODEL
RUN INDICATES MORE SCATTERED NATURE TO ANY CONVECTION FRIDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON SAT...AND THERE COULD BE MORE SHOWERS. DRIER
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SEEING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER OVER TOWARD
THE UPPER AND LOWER RED LAKES. THESE MAY SINK A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT OF KTVF/KBJI FOR NOW AND LET THE DAY
CREW SEE WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE SUN COMES OUT. THERE MAY ALSO BE A
FEW LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUT IF THESE DO DEVELOP THEY
WOULD BE WELL IN THE VFR RANGE. WINDS OVERALL LOOK PRETTY MINIMAL.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...GODON






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.