National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KFGF 251000
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND PCPN CHANCES. MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST.

RADAR RETURNS DIMINISHING RAPIDLY AND WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO START
THE DAY WITH A DRY FORECAST. DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE A BIG
BEARING ON TEMPERATURES. AVAILABLE IMAGERY SHOWING CLOUD COVER
WELL UP INTO CANADA BUT THIS CAN BE DECEIVING AT NIGHT. MIXING
WILL BE LIGHT BUT THERE IS SOME WARM ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
WITH LACK OF SNOW COVER THERE SHOULD BE A MODEST RECOVERY.

IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH NOSE OF 150KT JET MAXIMA WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME -SN TO THE NE FA TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT IN OVER DOING QPF WITH LAST SEVERAL EVENTS SO WILL KEEP
SNOW AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH LOW NORTH OF FA RESPECTABLE
WARM ADVECTION AND MIXING WILL RESULT IN STEADY OR RISING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE.

WITH EXCEPTION OF FAR NE REGION WILL BE DRY AND MILD MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

SHOULD SEE A BREAK FROM THE ALMOST DAILY SHORT WAVE PASSAGES WE
HAVE BEEN SEEING AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE A LONG WAVE
RIDGE WAS OVER WESTERN CANADA. WESTERN CANADA RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY
OVER THE PERIOD. EASTERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES A BIT. SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW IN THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF WAS
TRENDING SLOWER WHILE THE GFS WAS TRENDING FASTER OVER THE LAST
COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED ALL FOUR DAYS. TEMPS INCREASED A
DEGREE OR TWO FOR WED. TEMP INCREASE TWO OR THREE DEGREES

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

NORTHEAST FLOW SET UP AT DVL AND CIGS HAVE RISEN INTO UPPER MVFR
RANGE...WITH ALL OTHER SITES IN THE VALLEY AND NORTHWEST MN VFR.
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW AT DVL...MORE LIKELY
AT FAR...THAT COULD BRING VSBYS INTO THE 3 SM TO 5 SM RANGE. OTHER
THAN THAT...LOW VFR DECK WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUN AFTN.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER