Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 260445
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1145 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Scattered clouds over ne nd but some increase in clouds expected
overnight along the canadian border. Do expect the showers
wrapping southeast to barely avoid getting into the nw fcst area
tonight. Otherwise idea of increasing clouds nrn fcst area and
isold showers far north along with 20-30+kt winds look good for
Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Forecast challenges concern low end pcpn chances and temperatures.
Models in good agreement overall.

Convection firing just east of the FA in line with HRRRX and NSSL
WRF cam solutions. Will keep some low pops on far eastern fringe
but think convection will be east. Otherwise gradual cooling
through the column overnight and with lower dewpoints temperatures
will be cooler and much less muggy. Windy conditions west of the
valley until sunset however for the most part should remain blo
advisory limits.

Upper low will continue to propagate east into Ontario tomorrow.
Wrap around shra grazes northern counties so maintained some low
pops. Any instability and cape confined right around the low so
went with just shra. Steady cold advection and clouds across n
half will hold temperatures close to or a bit blo average. Winds
again will be relatively stiff especially west of the valley and
could be borderline advisory.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Some backwash clouds and showers will persist across the northern
tier counties early Sunday night, then thin and dissipate by
Monday morning ...with fair skies and northerly blayer flow expected
through the day. Surface high pressure pushes across the Red River
Basin from Monday into midday Tuesday with generally fair skies...
light north winds and seasonably mild temperatures during that
period.

Late Tuesday into Wednesday... a southerly return flow develops
ahead of the next approaching shortwave trof. During this time an
H5 longwave ridge should be anchored back along the rocky mountain
front range... resulting in a dry northwesterly mid level flow. At
this time... the GFS is a bit faster and wetter with the return
flow Tuesday evening and even brings a bit of low level jet action
into the central Dakotas by early Wednesday morning. The current
forecast packages leans a bit more towards the slower and drier
ECMWF solution into the midweek. The highest rain threat this
workweek is on Wednesday.

Thursday into the weekend... Both the GFS and ECMWF push the next
cold front back down through the area by midday on Thursday...will
somewhat cooler conditions from Thursday into Friday. Both models
also bring a quick return flow late Friday... and scattered showers
back in for the coming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 656 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

A west to southwest wind tonight on the south side of the upper
low moving ENE thru central Manitoba. Some VFR high based cumulus
or mid clouds to increase across the northern fcst area but remain
scattered in coverage overnight at TAF sites near Hwy 2. Winds
will get going soon after 12z with west winds in the 20-30 kt
range sustained with higher gusts. A bit lower in Bemidji. Expect
a broken to overcast VFR CU deck over nrn 1/2 of the fcst area 15z
and afterwards into Sunday evening.




&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Gust
AVIATION...Riddle


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