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000
FXUS63 KFGF 040414
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1014 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

THINGS ABOUT AS EXPECTED. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE AREA SHIFTED WEST
INTO FARGO AREA FOR ABOUT 2 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT WARMING WITH SFC
TEMPS RISING 2-3 DEG 01-03Z PERIOD... NOW OBS INDICATE MORE -SN AS
BETTER VERTICAL MOITION AND HIGHER CLOUDS COME IN FOR SEEDING. PER
RADAR...WHAT SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING IS UPPER LOW IN SE MONTANA WILL
MOVE EAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEASTERN BY 00Z THU. AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE IS ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO GENERATE SNOW..MOSTLY
LIGHT...BUT HAVE INVERTED TROUGH SET UP IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY
WHICH MAY CAUSE ENHANCED BANDS. NOW HAVE NOTICED ALL EVENING OF
NOT MUCH SNOW IN ABERDEEN AREA AND MODELS DO HAVE A LITTLE DRY
SLOT IF YOU WILL INTO FAR SE ND OR EVEN FAR WCNTRL MN THRU THIS
EVENT WITH FOCUS OF PRECIP FROM NAM/GFS/RAP MORE TOWARD THE
CENTRAL AND NRN RRV TO WINNIPEG AND THEN ANOTHER AREA AROUND
BEMIDJI. THUS DID UPDATE SNOWFALL TOTAL MAP TO ADJUST A
BIT....WITH CLOSER TO 4 FAR SE ND BUT KEPT GENERAL 5-8 CANDO-
COOOPERSTOWN-FARGO-FERGUS FALLS EAST.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 704 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

PUBLIC REPORTS INDICATE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE STILL IN THE CASS
LAKE MN-PARK RAPIDS-BADOURA-WADENA-STAPLES MN AREA SO WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF LIGHT SNIZZLE THERE TIL 06Z AS THE COLDER AIR
SLOWLY MOVES IN. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. CANADIAN/US RADAR COMPOSITE
SHOWS MAIN SNOW AREA ABOUT WINNIPEG THROUGH LANGDON-CAVALIER TO
BISMARCK. GET MUCH EAST OF THIS AREA INTO SE ND-NW MN JUST VERY
LIGHT SNOW. LATEST RAP/HRRR CONTINUES IDEA OF SLOW INCREASE IN
PRECIP AS SYSTEM MOVES EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE WINTER STORM MOVING INTO THE
AREA FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GOOD
ENOUGH AGREEMENT OVERALL SO THAT FEW CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST. MAIN QUESTION WILL PROBABLY STILL BE SNOW
AMOUNTS AND HEADLINES. AS OF MID AFTERNOON LOTS OF DIFFERENT
GRADIENTS ACROSS THE FA. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WERE RUNNING PRETTY
CLOSE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DESPITE THE FACT THAT THERE WAS
ABOUT A 20 DEGREE DIFFERENCE FROM CANDO TO KFFM. NEXT GRADIENT WAS
SKY COVER WHERE A HOLE HAS LASTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MANITOBA INTO
NORTH CENTRAL ND ALL AFTERNOON. SFC OBS ACROSS THE FA INDICATE
GENERAL LIGHT SNOW WITH A LITTLE FOG TOO. GUSTY WINDS STILL MAINLY
ACROSS THE KDVL REGION BUT WEB CAMS SHOW ONLY DRIFTING SNOW THERE.
WILL NEED MORE FALLING SNOW TO RESULT IN LOWER VSBYS. SPEAKING OF
SNOW THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS STEADIER SNOW STARTING TO MOVE
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST FA WITH KABR AND KBIS REPORTING LOWER VSBYS
IN THIS BAND.

THIS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE FA
TONIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA MAY NOT SEE THIS STEADIER SNOW UNTIL MID
TO LATE EVENING BUT SINCE IT IS ALREADY SNOWING WILL NOT SPLIT
HAIRS AND TRY ANY FANCY TIMING. IT IS LIGHTLY SNOWING NOW AND WILL
JUST INCREASE IN INTENSITY TONIGHT. LOOKING AT AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5
INCHES OR SO BY WED MORNING. AS FAR AS WIND POTENTIAL REALLY DO
NOT SEE MUCH INCREASE FROM WHERE IT IS NOW. HOWEVER AS STEADIER
SNOW MOVES IN VSBYS SHOULD DECREASE MUCH MORE FROM WHERE THEY ARE
NOW. RESTRICTED ANY MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE THE
STEADIER SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE FA ON WED...BUT GRADUALLY SHIFTING
INTO MN THROUGH THE DAY. SFC WINDS SHOULD FINALLY PICK UP A LITTLE
MORE IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY SO EXPANDED THE BLOWING SNOW MENTION
INTO THE VALLEY WED. AGAIN EXPECT LOWER VSBYS MORE SO DUE TO THE
FALLING SNOW THAN BLOWING SNOW. NOT SEEING THE REALLY HIGH GUST
POTENTIAL THAT SOME STORMS BRING. THAT IS NOT SAYING IT WILL NOT
BE BAD OUT IN OPEN COUNTRY. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT INTO
MN WED NIGHT TAKING MORE OF THE SNOW THERE. SHOULD CONTINUE TO
HAVE ENOUGH WIND TO GENERATE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING UP AND DOWN
THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MN. SNOW TOTALS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER
TOTALS OVER TOWARD KBJI. MAIN QUESTION MAY BE AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR OUT AROUND KDVL. CURRENT FORECAST
HAS ABOUT 4 TO 5 INCHES TOTAL THERE ALONG WITH THE STEADIER
WINDS. ANY LESS SNOW THAN THAT WOULD MAKE THE EVENT MORE OF AN
ADVISORY BUT WILL NOT ADJUST HEADLINES AT ALL AT THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

ON THURSDAY ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOULD MAINLY OCCUR OVER
NORTHWEST MN. WILL NOT MENTION ANY MORE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
BUT THIS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE. CAN ALWAYS ADJUST WITH LATER
FORECASTS. START TO SEE SOME PRETTY CHILLY WIND CHILL READINGS BY
THU NIGHT. ACTUAL LOWS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS HIGHS
ON FRI. MODELS SEEM TO HANG ONTO SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO FRI ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHEAST SO WILL SEE HOW THAT WORKS OUT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THE SFC HIGH CENTER MOVING INTO MN BY SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL DROP
DOWN TO NEAR 20 BELOW WITH HIGHS IN THE AFTERNOON STILL WELL BELOW
ZERO. MODELS ARE COMING INTO RELATIVE AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND BY SUNDAY THE
ECMWF AND GEM HAVE PRECIP CLIPPING OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COUNTIES. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACT TRACK AND ANY
PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT UNDER ARCTIC AIR SO KEPT POPS
AROUND 20-30 PERCENT FOR NOW. ANOTHER REINFORCING SHORTWAVE WILL DIG
DOWN OUT OF CANADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...DROPPING TEMPS BACK DOWN
AGAIN AFTER A VERY SLIGHT AND BRIEF WARMING INTO THE POSITIVE DIGITS
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

MOST SITES EXPECTING IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EITHER
IN CIGS OR VSBYS. EXPECT NORTH WINDS TO PICK UP GRADUALLY..BUT ANY
GUSTST TO 30 KTS HOLDING OFF IN GFK-TVF-FAR TIL AFTER 18Z WED.
VSBYS HIGHLY VARIABLE IN SNOWFALL AND WIND WHILE CIGS MORE STEADY
HOLDING MOSTLY IFR OR LOW END MVFR.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JR
AVIATION...RIDDLE