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000
FXUS63 KFGF 110438
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1138 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

NO CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE. ADDED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE UPCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM FOR FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND TEMPS. THE NAM/ECMWF HAVE BEEN ON THE SAME
PAGE WITH THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS BEING TOO COLD AND
NOW TRENDING TOWARD THE NORTH AND WARMER OVERALL. THIS WOULD MEAN
MAINLY RAIN WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

FOR TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN FAIRLY ACTIVE NW
FLOW ALOFT. THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS...MAINLY AFTER 06Z IN ALL AREAS. THERE COULD BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SPRINKLES/SHOWERS THIS EVENING MAINLY IN THE
NORTH. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING
TONIGHT...SO ALL LIQUID PRECIP EXPECTED.

ON FRIDAY...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY ASIDE FROM PERHAPS SOME
MORNING SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS AROUND
OR PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH SIMILAR THERMAL FIELDS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...A HYBRID LOW WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH AND SPREAD
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH...MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SOME SNOW LATE.
THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FAR NORTH WITH AN
INCH...PERHAPS 2 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN SAT MORNING. MOST OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS RAIN THOUGH...WITH AROUND 0.25 UP TO
0.50 INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

ON SATURDAY...PRECIP WILL WRAP UP TO THE NORTH IN THE COLD
AIR...AND SOME MORE RAIN/SNOW IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER INCH OR SO IS
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTH...WITH MAINLY RAIN TO THE SOUTH. THERMAL
FIELDS WILL BE TRICKY THOUGH WITH RAIN/SNOW LINE TOUGH TO PINPOINT
AND ANY SNOW ACCUMS LIKELY HELD DOWN UNLESS A HEAVY BAND OF SNOW
DEVELOPS NEAR MID LEVEL FGEN IN THE NORTH. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR
THOUGH...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY MELT FAIRLY QUICKLY...BUT
THERE IS SOME COLD AIR TO WORK WITH SO STAY TUNED.

ON SAT NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION WILL CHANGE ANY RAIN TO SOME SNOW
BEFORE ENDING. THE MAIN PART OF THE PRECIP EVENT SHOULD END BY SAT EVENING.

FOR SUNDAY...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH COOL NORTHERLY
WINDS. IT SHOULD BE DRY THOUGH WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE BY
AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
SWING THROUGH THE FA EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN SLIGHT PCPN
CHANCE AND WELL BLO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. FOLLOWING TROUGH PASSAGE
REGION WILL GO BACK INTO NW FLOW ALOFT MAINTAINING WELL BLO
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BUT GENERALLY DRY. MODELS DIVERGE ON
SOLUTIONS AFTER MIDWEEK SO NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON PCPN CHANCES
OR LOCATIONS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES BY LATER HALF OF WORK WEEK BUT PROBABLY STILL BLO
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

LOOKS LIKE MID LEVEL CEILINGS WILL BE AROUND FOR A GOOD PORTION
OF THE NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A SCATTERED BREAK FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
CLOUDS START INCREASING AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT BIGGER SYSTEM
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. KEPT THINGS SIMPLE AND JUST WENT WITH A
BROKEN MID LEVEL DECK FOR NOW WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. SPEEDS MAY
GET UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS IN A FEW PLACES FRI AFTERNOON BUT MODELS
DISAGREE QUITE A BIT ON SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS. ONLY MENTIONED PCPN
AT KDVL FOR NOW AS IT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU APR 9 2014

THE MAINSTEM RED RIVER...ALONG WITH MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA
TRIBUTARIES...CONTINUE TO RESPOND TO THE SPRING SNOW MELT. MOST OF
THE REMAINING SNOWPACK IS LOCATED IN NW MINNESOTA AS INDICATED BY
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND CONTINUED WARM WEATHER IS HELPING
ERODE IT. RISES ARE BEING SEEN AROUND ROSEAU AND MALUNG...BUT THOSE
LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE.

A NEW RIVER FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR HALLOCK AS THE SNOWPACK IN
NW MINNESOTA CONTINUES TO ERODE. RELEASES FROM LAKE BRONSON ARE NEAR
1000 CFS AND RIVER LEVELS MAY FLUCTUATE FROM 804 TO 806 FEET.

THE RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR SABIN HAS BEEN CANCELED. THE RIVER
APPEARS TO HAVE CRESTED AT JUST OVER 12 FEET AND HAS NOW RECEDED
BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A HIGH
WATER NOTICE. FOR OTHER POINTS IN FLOOD...FORECASTS LOOK GOOD AT
THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST WHICH WILL HELP ALLEVIATE THE FLOODING SITUATION.

WATER CONTINUES TO COVER A PORTION OF HWY 81 NEAR MINTO CAUSING THE
ROAD TO BE CLOSED...WITH SEVERAL CITY BLOCKS AFFECTED IN MINTO
ITSELF. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED CAREFULLY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES. THE PARK RIVER AT GRAFTON IS STARTING TO RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW
THE LATEST FORECAST...BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE LATER IN THE WEEK.

AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS EFFECT FOR WALSH COUNTY. COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED THAT MANY COUNTY AND TOWNSHIP ROADS
REMAIN CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. SOME TOWNS
INCLUDED IN THE WARNING ARE GRAFTON... MINTO...PARK RIVER...
ARDOCH...CONWAY...EDINBURG AND FORDVILLE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/VOELKER
AVIATION...GODON
HYDROLOGY...HOPKINS