Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 281136

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
636 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

Issued at 636 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Patchy fog has formed a bit further south than expected so
expanded mention down to Detroit Lakes and Fergus Falls area. Web
cams and obs shows that fog is very localized and not all that
dense, so will not need any headlines at this point. No other
changes for the morning update.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Temperatures and precip chances late tonight will be the main
issues for the short term.

Surface high pressure over the region has kept winds across the
CWA light and variable, with only a small amount of patchy fog
forming in the far eastern counties. Models are all in pretty good
agreement on 925mb temps in the teens and 20s moving back into
eastern ND. Not a lot of mixing with the surface high slowly
moving southeastward and winds remaining light. However, with
strong late June sunshine should get back up into the mid to upper
70s by this afternoon even with a cool start.

There is decent agreement on a weak shortwave moving through
southern Canada towards our northeastern counties tonight. Another
shortwave will be to the southwest over western ND and SD. Think
the northeastern shortwave is most likely to have an impact on our
counties, with some showers and thunderstorms clipping the Lake of
the Woods area during the early morning hours Wednesday. Continued
to keep some low POPs in that area. With increasing clouds lows
tonight should stay in the mid to upper 50s in all but the far
eastern tier which will be a bit cooler.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Wednesday through Thursday...Northwesterly flow aloft continues. The
main shortwave will be digging down into the upper midwest
Wednesday night but some weak shortwaves seem to be preceding the
main trough that drags down the cold front. Surface features are
weak for much of the day on Wednesday before the main cold front
comes down in the late afternoon and evening. The models all break
out precip, although exact placement of the heaviest activity
varies from model to model. Will keep mostly high chance POPs
area wide by Wednesday afternoon. With temps back up around 80
degrees, there will be some instability around 1500-2000 J/kg.
However, the better CAPE values along with high deep layer bulk
shear will be over southern SD, so think that much of the severe
potential will be over that area. The precipitation activity
pushes south and east Wednesday night and even lingers a bit into
Thursday morning as the cold front sags south. Surface high
pressure will build in again late Thursday and Thursday night to
dry things out. Thursday will be another cool day in the upper 60s
to low 70s with north winds and Thursday night will again see
temps drop into the 40s in some areas.

Friday through Monday...Long wave troughs remain over western and
eastern North America through the period. Long wave ridge over
the High Plains will shift over the Northern Plains by the end of
the period. Long wave ridge flattens after day 4 and becomes quite
zonal by day 7.

Reasonably good agreement is seen between the ECMWF and the GFS
through 84 hours. The GFS becomes a little faster than the ECMWF in
the extended. The ECMWF was generally trending slower while the GFS
was trending faster. Will blend the models.

High temperatures were decreased a degree or so for Fri and Mon.
High temps were increased a degree or so for Sat and Sun.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Patchy fog has affected KTVF and was restricting visibilities at
KBJI earlier this morning. Visibilities have been coming up and
down but should be on an improvement trend to stay as the sun
comes up in the next hour or so. After 14Z or so all TAF sites
will be VFR. Winds will be light and variable or from the
southwest during the period.


.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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