Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 290226
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
926 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER ALL BUT THE FAR WEST THROUGH TONIGHT.
USING THE TIME/DISTANCE TOOL ON AWIPS...THE CLOUD EDGE SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE FAR WEST AROUND 11-12Z TIMEFRAME...AND NOT INTO THE
VALLEY UNTIL 18Z...IF THE SPEED CONTINUES. THEREFORE...HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH
TEMPS PERHAPS FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S FOR MOST AREAS. IF IT DOES
CLEAR OUT IN ANY AREA...THEN IT WILL BE COLDER...AND THIS COULD
OCCUR ON THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MAIN FEATURES WITH SMALL DIFFERENCES
ON PCPN AMOUNTS. USED A BLEND FOR FORECAST.

FOR TONIGHT UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST ALONG
WITH TRAILING LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH. MODELS INDICATING GRADUAL
DRYING OF THE COLUMN FROM WEST TO EAST. THE FAR NE NOT SHOWING ANY
DRYING UNTIL AFT 06Z SO -RASN TO LINGER LONGEST THERE. EVEN THOUGH
COLUMN DRIES LOWER LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST SO CONFIDENCE LOW ON
CLEARING TONIGHT. AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES IN WINDS WILL WEAKEN
HOWEVER CLOUDS LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR. IF CLEARING IS MORE AGGRESSIVE LATER SHIFTS WOULD LIKELY NEED
TO ADJUST MINIMUMS DOWNWARD.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR SOME AFTERNOON RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION. DEPENDING
ON THE DEGREE OF SOLAR WHICH IS SOMETIMES TOUGH TO TARGET THIS
TIME OF YEAR HELD TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CROSSES FA WITH BEST UPPER
SUPPORT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA INTO SD. MODELS SHOWING BIT OF A
SPREAD WITH RAIN AMOUNTS HOWEVER WITH BEST SUPPORT ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS ALONG THE SD/ND/MN BORDER AREA. WITH
BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTH KEPT PCPN ALL LIQUID. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH COULD END UP RELATIVELY MILD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE
OCT 28 2014

COLD ADVECTION PRETTY STEADY WITH BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS THURSDAY. WITH
BEST PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH COULD SEE A FAIRLY
RESPECTABLE THERMAL CONTRAST FROM N-S.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT. LATER IN THE NIGHT WINDS
WILL DROP OFF ALONG WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR CLEARING SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP WELL INTO THE 20S.

WILL COOL START AND LOWERING SUN ANGLE TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO
STRUGGLE TO 40 IN SPITE OF SOLAR. RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION IN
THE AFTERNOON FROM THE VALLEY WEST MAY HELP SOME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

EXPECT MVFR CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...THEN SHIFT SOUTH WED AFTERNOON.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING/THINNING OF CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WED FROM WEST TO EAST...BEFORE MID CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF NEXT
SHORTWAVE. HAVE GONE FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC AND FEEL CLOUDS WILL
LINGER ALL NIGHT EVEN IN THE WEST...BUT WE WILL MONITOR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK






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