Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 210351
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
951 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

TWEAKED CLOUDS A BIT MORE AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES. TEMPS IN THE
EASTERN TIER ALREADY BELOW ZERO WILL DROP ANOTHER FEW DEGREES BUT
SHOULD START TO LEVEL OFF AND THEN RISE AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE.
TEMPS IN THE WEST SHOULD STAY IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MADE SOME TWEAKS TO CLOUDS...AS STRATUS TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST HAS
BEEN SLOW TO START MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. BUT THINK WE SHOULD STILL
START TO SEE SOME MORE CLOUD TOWARDS MORNING. SOME SPOTS IN MN
HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW ZERO...SO LOWERED LOWS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. THINK THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN AS WINDS PICK UP AND CLOUDS MOVE IN. TEMPS OVER THE WEST
AND CENTRAL SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE AND EVEN IN THE EAST UNDER THE
SFC RIDGE THEY SHOULD LEVEL OFF FROM THEIR SHARP DROP THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD
TRENDS AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER FAR EASTERN
ND...SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA BY TOMORROW
MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANT VARIATION FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BE IMPACTED BY WARM ADVECTION
AND POSSIBLY CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN CWA. THE GEM IS THE WARMEST
TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. WILL TREND TOWARD THE COLDER
SOLUTIONS AND USE A MODEL BLEND FOR THIS FCST.

TONIGHT...SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. DVL
HAS ALREADY SWITCHED TO SW WINDS AND VELOCITIES SHOULD STAY AROUND
10 KTS IF NOT PICK UP A BIT. THOSE SW WINDS WILL WORK INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF CWA
IN NORTHEASTERN MN TOMORROW MORNING....AND ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY SUNRISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY. LOOKING FOR A 10
TO 15 DEG TEMP GRADIENT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH STEADY TO RISING
TEMPS IN THE WEST AND TEMPS FALLING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT IN THE
FAR EAST. TRICKY CLOUD SITUATION TONIGHT AS SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVER SASK AND ALB SINK INTO DAKOTAS HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT
ON HOW MUCH IT WILL IMPACT TEMPS IN THE WEST. ALSO SOME REMAINS
OF LAST NIGHTS LOW CLOUDS STILL OVER CNTRL SD...WITH SW FLOW THESE
COULD ADVECT INTO SW ZONES TONIGHT. HOWEVER A DRY AIR MASS OVER
OUR CWA...WITH SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS...SHOULD HELP ERODE
ENCROACHING CLOUDS. ISENTROPIC CHARTS DO SHOW SOME LIFT OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT BUT CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS TOO HIGH FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD. OVERALL THEME THEN WILL BE A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE WEST AND SW NEAR MORNING.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT....SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS
AREA WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEGIN A BRIEF WARMUP. MODELS
DIFFERING HOW WARM IT WILL GET TOMORROW...WITH GEM BEING WARMEST.
HAVE USED MODEL BLEND AND WENT WITH MUCH COLDER SOLUTION GENERALLY
IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE FAR WEST. WILL BE BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS BUT WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY SAT NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM KICKS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. DAKOTAS WILL BE
IN WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE
MID 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY AS SFC
LOW MOVES INTO MANITOBA. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF GULF MOISTURE.

THIS EARLY PERIOD SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. THE MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME WITH HOW THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SYSTEM
WILL INTERACT. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM
FURTHER EAST...LEADING TO LESS INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN
SYSTEM. AT THE VERY LEAST...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE WINDY
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. IF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER
WEST...THIS WILL LEAD TO EVEN STRONGER WINDS AND MORE SNOWFALL.
NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE IS STILL VERY LOW. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE CLIPPERS AND
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE A BAND OF MVFR STRATUS TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...BUT THE BAND
HAS BEEN FALLING APART IN SOME AREAS AND ONLY SLOWLY STARTING TO
MOVE NORTH AND EAST. SREF HAS BEST PROBABILITIES OF LOWER
CATEGORIES STAYING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES...SO
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR FOR NOW BUT INCLUDED SOME 5000 FT CIGS
AROUND KFAR. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE LOWER CIGS AS SOUTH WINDS
BEGIN TO BRING SOME MORE MOISTURE INTO OUR VERY DRY ENVIRORNMENT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST AND COULD BECOME BREEZY LATE IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...JR






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