Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 142135

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
335 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

The warmth today didnt dissapoint with 40s for highs from Wahpeton
to Bemidji with mid to upper 30s over NE ND/NW MN. This will come
crashing to a halt as a cold front drops south tonight. Overall
precipitation behind the front is a tad weaker as once piece of
energy and higher snowfall moves east thru parts of S Manitoba
late aftn/early eve and another higher qpf area is in NW ND. Trend
too is for the snow in Manitoba/Saskatchewan to weaken some in
intensity as it drops south into E ND/NW MN overnight/Thu AM.
Based on input from WPC and using blended model qpf/snow ratios
1-2 inches is the most likely outcome NE ND/NW MN with less than 1
inch south...least in the far south. Winds will increase overnight
and be strongest in the Thu AM period with gusts 30-35 kts in the
RRV. Blowing snow issue is there for the AM commute but how poor
the impacts are is a bit uncertain. Chance we get way less snow
and with many fields bare it would be more dirt vs snow. Falling
temps Thurdsay with wind chills in the aftn 15 to 30 below.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Gusty winds Thursday evening will lessen bringing an end to blowing
snow potential. As the center of a high pressure moves south of the
region, winds back towards the west but remain breezy. This wind
should prevent maximum radiational cooling despite clear skies from
ridging aloft within a cold air mass Thursday night. However, breezy
winds will combine with overnight temperatures below zero to create
wind chills colder than -20 F possibly warranting hazardous wind
chill headlines into Friday morning. Temperatures quickly rebound
Friday with warm air advection expected ahead of an approaching wave
pushing high temperatures into the teens above zero. The approaching
wave will allow for breezy southwesterly winds to build Friday
afternoon possibly leading to additional patchy blowing/drifting
snow. A weak cold moves through late Friday into early Saturday
bringing a some chance of light snow. Effective mixing and low level
cold air advection behind the front will again harness elevated
winds out of the northwest during the day Saturday.

Upper level troughing begins to form over the western CONUS late
this weekend into next week. This will allow for zonal flow to build
over the Northern Plains around Sunday during its initial transition.
Both ensemble and deterministic guidance suggests a second, stronger
wave embedded within this flow to move out of the Pacific Northwest
into the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest. This wave will create a
surface low moving west to east across the region providing
snow/precipitation chances and possibly a fluctuation of
temperatures back to briefly above normal. As of now, the low looks
to move through Sunday. Run to run consistency is lacking in terms
of placement of precipitation with a trend to continue pushing
chances further south towards North/South Dakota border. With a
western trough building, this places the CWA under the influence of
southwest flow. Where the trough axis sets up will determine
additional precipitation chances from shortwaves riding within the
flow. This will also determine the temperature trend going into next
week. Thus the forecast reflects an extended period of broad, small
precipitation chances to last through early next week with below
average temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

VFR thru the early evening...then as the winds turn north-
northwest behind a cold front expect a sharp drop into low end
MVFR and possibly IFR cigs in the colder air behind the front
overnight into Thursday morning as it spreads from northwest to
southeast. Increasing north winds too with gusts in the 30-35 kt
range in the RRV later tonight/early Thu. Vsby reduction in light
snow and blowing snow expected as well as light snow spread south
and east. Timed front and low cloud/snow arrival in TAFs.




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