Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 140846
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
346 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND CLOUD TRENDS. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND PREFER THE CONSISTENT GFS.

FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTH NEAR AN
UPPER LOW. EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE
AREA...WITH LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS AND WRAPAROUND COLD ADVECTION
STRATO CUMULUS. TEMPS WON/T RISE OUT OF THE 50S IN THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 60 IN THE SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...IT SHOULD CLEAR AND TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S. THERE COULD BE SOME FROST FOR SURE...BUT FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE OUT WITH A FEW CLOUDS AROUND. IF IT CLEARS OUT
TOTALLY...THE MORE WIDESPREAD FROST COULD BECOME A CONCERN AND
WILL MONITOR POTENTIAL.

ON MONDAY...WARMER AIR AND WESTERLY SFC FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL BOOST TEMPS FROM SUNDAYS READINGS...WITH LOW TO
MID 60S WEST AND NEAR 60 EAST WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE...THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM AS
THERMAL FIELDS CONTINUE TO WARM. IT SHOULD BE AROUND 70 FROM THE
VALLEY WEST AND A BIT COOLER FURTHER EAST.

WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY...NO SURPRISES TO THE LONG RANGE AS MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH NW FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING THURSDAY TO
MORE ZONAL FLOW AND BY FRIDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW. AS A RESULT
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOW 70S FOR HIGHS WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AS UPPER RIDGING INDUCES 850MB SOUTHERLY
LLJ THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SFC TROUGH DEPICTED ON MODELS SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS INDICATING SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL INCLUDE THUNDER MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

FOG LOOP/SURFACE OBS INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. A
CLEAR SKY WAS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN ND EXCEPT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. CIGS WERE AROUND 35 TO 55 HUNDRED FT ALONG THE BORDER.
HOWEVER ROLLA WAS AT 26 HUNDRED FT. THE MN SIDE OF THE RED RIVER WAS
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CIGS 5 TO 9 THOUSAND FT. EXPECT CIGS AROUND 4
THOUSAND FT OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND SUN. CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OUT OR DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
SUNSHINE SUN EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...HOPPES





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