Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 161148
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
648 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION EVENT THAT IS PROGGED SAT
INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS QPF
EVENT...THAT SHOULD PROVIDE BENEFICIAL RAINS FOR AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE VALLEY.

FOR TODAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN AREAS
AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT AND IT COULD BE BREEZY AT TIMES IN THE VALLEY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER TODAY...AND WINDS NOT AS
STRONG...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY FIRE WEATHER ISSUES. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DRYING
COLUMN. TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

ON FRIDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING.
THERE WILL BE ABOUT 25KT TO MIX IN THE NORTH...AND IT WILL BE
PRETTY DRY. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR ANY FIRE WX CONCERNS IF WINDS
GET STRONGER THAN PROGGED SINCE RH VALUES SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...EXPECT ANOTHER DRY NIGHT WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

ON SAT AND SAT NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE KICKER WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST...ALONG WITH PWATS POOLING SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1 INCH. THERE
SHOULD BE A BAND OF QPF WITH RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING SATURDAY AND
MOVING NORTH WITH STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INCREASING
LLJ. WE WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS BY SAT NIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF
THE VALLEY...WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 0.50 INCH OR MORE OF
BENEFICIAL RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

FOR SUN THROUGH WED...LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH AMPLIFY OVER WESTERN
CANADA/ONTARIO- GREAT LAKES AREA THIS PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CLOSES OFF AFTER DAY 5. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF WAS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THEN
THE GFS. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF WERE TRENDING SOUTH AND WEST
OVER THE LAST COUPLE RUNS WITH UPPER WAVE CLOSING OFF. SO MOST OF
THE PRECIP HAS BEEN SLOWED DOWN. WILL BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASE A DEGREE OR SO ON SUN AND WED AND DECREASED
A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MON. HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ONE TO THREE
DEGREES FOR TUE FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTH BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. WINDS COULD GUST TO NEAR 20KT AT TIMES NEAR THE FRONT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK






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