Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 010859
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
359 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND THEN CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TOMORROW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUES FOR THE PERIOD.

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO WESTERN MT WILL MOVE OUT INTO
THE WESTERN PLAINS TODAY...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE CWA INTO NORTHERN MN. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S IN ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN TIER THIS MORNING. THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY LIMIT
INSOLATION A BIT TODAY...BUT WITH A WARM START AND THE THERMAL
RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...WE SHOULD
GET PRETTY TOASTY. SOME SPOTS IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
SHOULD EVEN GET ABOVE 70 DEGREES. THERE SHOULD BE SOME PRETTY
GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THINK THAT TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY DROP.

WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW ALONG WITH
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS MAY BE AN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE WIND SPEEDS REACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THERE WILL BE GOOD
MIXING...BUT WINDS ALOFT WILL BE AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS INSTEAD OF
AROUND 40 KTS. THINK THAT WE WILL BE QUITE BREEZY BUT WILL KEEP US
JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW. WITH THE WINDS THOUGH AND
DRY AIR...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE AN ISSUE.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MIXING AND CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR TONIGHT. THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING
SOME LIGHT PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...AND
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ON
THURSDAY AND WITH NORTHWEST WINDS STILL RATHER BREEZY IT WILL FEEL
RATHER RAW IN COMPARISON TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SETS UP BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE DOWN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...ALONG WITH A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR. SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MAYBE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPS WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE 20S WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE ECMWF TRIES TO BRING
A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND GEM ARE DRIER. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME
LOW POPS FOR RA/SN SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS AND GEM BRINGING A
STRONG UPPER LOW THROUGH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS
A BIT SLOWER BUT ALSO PRETTY WET WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THIS POINT WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BECOMING GUSTY ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED APR 01 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH SERGEANT COUNTY. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTING ABOVE 35 MPH
AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...WARM SFC TEMPS EXPECTED NEAR OR ABOVE 60
WILL HELP HUMIDITY VALUES FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH AREAS OF LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES POSSIBLE. THE
COMBINATION OF VERY GUSTY WINDS...LOW LOW HUMIDITIES AND DRY FUELS
MAY LEAD TO RAPID FIRE GROWTH. THEREFORE...THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...TG
FIRE WEATHER...HOPKINS







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