Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 252341
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
641 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 639 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Skies to continue to clear from NW-SE. No changes needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Surface trough over northeast zones continues to produce isolated
showers vcnty of Baudette MN down to Park Rapids MN with some
sprinkles possible across portions of w central MN into the
southern RRV. Forecast challenge for this evening will be any
remaining precip ending, sky trends and overnight lows.

Strato cu should begin to break up and clear out in the 01Z to 05Z
timeframe across w central MN, with showers ending in the late
aftn as sfc trough moves into n central MN and solar angle
decreases. Expectation is for mostly clear skies after midnight.
Sfc high moves across SD and into srn MN by 12Z Friday, resulting
in NW winds shifting back to SW and some warmer air advecting in
on Friday for daytime highs in the mid to upper 70s. Moisture
advection increases from the southern plains through the day on
Friday, and warm advection showers/elevated storms lift from SD
into s central ND in late afternoon. Have some POPs entering SW
zones from the 21Z to start of long term period.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Friday night through Saturday...An upper trough moving through the
Northern Plains and into Minnesota will be pushing through, with a
weak surface trough axis moving into the region. Precip should be
entering the southwestern counties at the start of the period with
warm air advection out ahead of the main surface trough, with fairly
good rain chances continuing into Saturday as the main system passes
through. Instability is not very high on Saturday due to ongoing
rain in the morning, but will have to watch for better CAPE and
maybe more intense storms if there is more clearing during the day
than expected. Temps will be affected by the precip, with low temps
in the mid to upper 50s and highs will be limited to upper 60s and
low 70s.

Sunday through Thursday...An upper ridge will be starting to build
into the central CONUS as a trough digs into the west coast. Temps
should be warming back up to near or slightly above seasonal
averages. Models all have some weak embedded shortwaves moving
through, but as usual differ on timing. With the position of the jet
it seems at this point most of the precip will be in the northern
half of the CWA. Kept the blended solution which has some slight to
chance POPs for most days at least in the northern counties.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Clearing continues to spread from NW-SE with VFR cigs now roughly
across the SE half of the fa. Most areas to be clear or close to
by mid evening. Winds will diminish becoming variable overnight.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Voelker
SHORT TERM...Speicher
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...Voelker



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