Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 240545
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1145 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1142 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Continued minor cloud tweeks. Otherwise forecast in good shape.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 216 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

With the main winter storm system to brush by to our south tonight
into Friday, the main forecast challenges will be clouds and wind
chills tonight. This afternoon and evening, cloud cover should
decrease a bit from the northwest and northeast as drier air
moves in from the north. Short term models hint at a low level
deck creeping in during the pre-dawn hours Friday over the
northwest, but remaining cloud cover in the southern half of the
area should decrease as the aforementioned storm system moves
away to the east Friday.

With cold air advection forcing temperatures to gradually fall but
models varying a bit in cloud cover, there is still some uncertainty
as to how far temperatures will plummet tonight. Went with a blend
that brings overnight lows into the single digits (north RRV) to the
middle teens (south RRV). Between cold air moving in and wind
staying up overnight, wind chills will fall to near or slightly
below zero Friday morning. Expect temps to recover fairly well
tomorrow with highs in the upper teens to upper 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 216 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

An upper low over the upper MS valley will depart the area Fri night
and bring zonal flow aloft to the region Fri night into Sat...with
generally dry weather or a few flurries across portions of far
northeastern ND.  An upper wave associated with a H500 low in
northern Sask/MB then swings across the northern tier Sat
night...bringing a chance for some snow showers over the Devils Lake
Basin overnight. NW flow aloft then brings generally dry but cool
weather Sun and Mon before arrival of potentially the best chance
for accumulating snowfall in the long term period.  As the upper
pattern turns southwesterly a wave out of the northern Rockies by
early Tue.  There is currently significant difference between the
GFS and ECMWF on the timing and amplitude of the upper wave and the
Canadian is very bullish with moisture, which if realized could be
problematic over the RRV.  However, confidence low at this point
given model inconsistencies.  Will remove the likely POPs in the
late Tue aftn and early evening hours while keeping the highest POPs
across w central MN late Tue night.  In general a longer period of
light snow looks possible but the blended solution is being impacted
by the overly bullish GEM.  The work week should generally see highs
in the upper 20s to low 30s with the overnight lows in the mid to
low teens.  This will continue the slow down of the spring melt
brought about by record breaking temperatures last week.  CPC
guidance continues this cool trend into the Day 8 to 14 range, where
signals are indicating higher probabilities of cool and moist in
that timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Dealing with remains of MVFR stratocu in the southern RRV and
parts of wcntrl MN. These have been in and out of Fargo. As
continued north winds bring in drier airmass at 850 mb will
continue to see less of these stratocu and do expect VFR cigs for
the majority of the time this period at all TAF sites. One slight
flaw is area of 4-5k ft agl clouds Rolla to just west of Winnipeg.
These are slowly moving east and southeast and may for a time
move into DVL/GFK late tonight/friday morning. North winds 5 to 15
kts overnight 10-18 kts Friday.



&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 216 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Oslo forecast to go to moderate flood stage by late Sat or early
Sun. Todays river level was not rising as fast as expected an so the
forecast was shifted to a slower rise and a later crest. Note: ice
jamming is not figured into the forecast. With the cooler weather
forecast may change.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...BP
LONG TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...Riddle
HYDROLOGY...Hoppes


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