Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 200251
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
951 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 946 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

What showers/sprinkles there are coming out of southern Canada are
having a tough time making it much past the border so trimmed
back on pops and should be done in an hour or so anyways. Farther
south still potential for some light rain mainly south of I-94 as
upper trough/wave rotate through the north central US. Latest
model guidance not so robust with rain potential in deformation
zone so eased off on pops across the eastern fa towards morning.

UPDATE Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Weak returns continue across parts of the forecast area however
not sure they warrant any pops but will keep 20`s going. Did
remove thunder mention though. Cape 250j/kg or less with lifted
indices at zero or greater and nil shear. No other changes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Areas of very light rain and showers will move across far southern
ND and west central MN through the late afternoon and evening
hours...with an otherwise mild northwesterly flow persisting into
early evening.

Further north...fair skies will steadily give rise to increased
clouds and some widely scattered showers...perhaps even an
isolated thunderstorm this evening...from eastcentral and
Northeast ND into northwest Minnesota. A secondary cold front is
descending into the area through southern Manitoba and will
provide that bit of focus needed for showers to develop.

Saturday morning...the mid level H5 trof axis should shift into
western Minnesota allowing for some drying aloft over the eastern
Dakotas. However...surface low pressure digging into the western
Great lakes will likely develop and maintain a broad backwash
cloud deck and some very light rain showers reaching back across
Minnesota and into the Red River Valley. H5 ridging will steadily
build in aloft during the day... so skies should scatter out
though the afternoon. A cool and dry northerly flow will push
Saturday temperatures some 8 to 10 degrees below long term
seasonal normals.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

This period starts off with an upper level trough exiting the
area and cool high pressure settling in at the surface. With the
light winds and clear skies Saturday night...believe temps could
dip a bit below guidance. Expecting lows in the lower 40s in some
areas. Some bias corrected models even have upper 30s across parts
of NW MN. Warm air will push into the area on Sunday/Sunday
night...bringing mainly mid to upper level clouds to the area.

The area will rebound from the cool spell rather quickly...with
80s expected again by Monday. An upper ridge will drift through
the area Monday night...followed by an upper trough on Tuesday.
This upper trough could bring strong to severe thunderstorms to
the area on Tuesday/Tuesday night...but there is still some
uncertainty in the details this far out.

Another cool snap is expected for the end of the week...when
highs in the low to mid 70s are expected. However...the potential
exists for lows in the 40s and highs in the 60s on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

VFR conditions overnight with very low chances of any pcpn. Low
convective temperatures tomorrow with moist layer so will likely
see MVFR CIGs developing in the am lifting to VFR in the
afternoon.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Voelker
SHORT TERM...Gust
LONG TERM...Knutsvig
AVIATION...Voelker



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