Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 192013
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
313 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND STRENGTH WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM
FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

WV LOOP SHOWS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE
MORNING ACTIVITY MOVING OFF INTO MN WHILE THERE IS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER MT. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND THE SECOND MORE WEAK WAVE WILL COME INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OFF FROM THE
RED RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN MN...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING INTO THE CWA. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ALL HAVE SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED PRECIP ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. AFTER CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY...THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA HAS FINALLY CLEARED OUT AND GAINED SOME
SFC BASED INSTABILITY. THERE HAVE BEEN TOWERING CU AND A FEW RADAR
RETURNS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS IN OUR NORTHERN CWA
WHILE THE CAP HAS REMAINED IN PLACE FURTHER SOUTH.

THINK THERE WILL BE SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY IT
MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN PARTS OF ND AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE COMES OUT OF MT...AND
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY MOVES EAST. THERE SEEMS TO
BE SOME DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE UPPER SUPPORT AND THE BEST
INSTABILITY...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OF SEVERE BUT
SOME ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ANY
CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL TAPER OFF BY LATE EVENING.

TOMORROW...A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO
WESTERN MN OUT OF CANADA. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WESTERLY
WINDS...BUT A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE CWA BY
PEAK HEATING. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A HUGE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...WITH SFC BASED CAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG ON
THE HIGHER END OF THE MODELS...BUT FORCING WITH THE INCOMING
SHORTWAVE WILL BE VERY STRONG. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WIND AND
HAIL POSSIBILITIES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL ALSO KNOCK
DOWN TEMPS A BIT CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE WESTERN PLAINS AND WE SHOULD HAVE SOME LINGERING CLOUD
COVER...SO KEPT LOWS AROUND 50 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET AS WE
TRANSITION FROM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO A RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND FROM THE UPPER 60S
ON SUNDAY INTO THE LOW 70S ON MONDAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION.

WILL START OFF THE MON NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD WITH 500MB
RIDGING OVER THE FA...BUT WILL HAVE A 500MB LOW CUTTING THRU THE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP MON NIGHT
DRY BUT HAVE SOME PCPN CHANCES TUE THRU WED NIGHT. AS THE LOW PASSES
OFF TO THE EAST WILL BE LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER AGAIN FOR THU/FRI.
TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK CLOSE TO NORMAL EARLY ON...BUT BECOME A LITTLE
WARMER AGAIN BY THU/FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FIRST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING HOW SOON THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
EXIT KFAR/KTVF/KBJI. THINK KFAR/KTVF SHOULD OCCUR BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON WHILE KBJI MAY TAKE JUST A LITTLE LONGER. AFTER THESE GO
THINK ONLY SOME MID LEVEL SCT-BKN CLOUDS WILL REMAIN. LAST THING TO
WATCH WILL BE THE WIND SWITCH. SOUTH-SW WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE
TO THE WEST-SW AND THEN FINALLY WEST TO NW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WIND
GUSTS HAVE DIED DOWN SOME AT KDVL/KGFK WITH THE MOST GUSTINESS AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY OR ACROSS OUR MN FA RIGHT NOW. NEXT MORE ORGANIZED
BAND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD GET GOING ACROSS THE KDVL REGION BY SAT
MORNING SO WILL ONLY MENTION AT KDVL FOR NOW.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...GODON








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