Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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238
FXUS63 KFGF 171000
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
400 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

Temperatures continue to be the main forecast challenge. Yesterday
925mb temps peaked at -2C to -4C across the FA, with winds in the
5 to 10 mph range. Highs were extremely variable, with Hallock in
the valley only hitting 12F, while Lake Itasca State Park in the
trees (which may be a tad high) reached 44F. SSW sfc winds should
get a tad higher today with models indicating 925mb temps rising
to 0C to +2C, or about 2 to 6C warmer than yesterday. Overall this
will result in another very mild day, and kept the warmest highs
from Baudette to Bemidji to Park Rapids and the coolest highs
along the eastern edge of the Red River Valley. Sfc winds look to
stay rather steady into tonight, enough to keep any mention of fog
out of the forecast. There could still be some around, but
doubting there will be much.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

Very mild air holds over the FA Wednesday and Thursday. The
warmest temps at 925mb seem to peak Wednesday and drop a little by
Thursday. Sfc winds look lighter on Wednesday and Wednesday night,
which could lead to some fog again Wednesday night. Winds then
become steadier again by Thursday into Thursday night. However,
this could be an advection fog or stratus type scenario, so if
anything forms south of the FA it could move northward. Hard to
forecast this with much confidence this far out, so will continue
to watch how the melt scenario progresses.

For Friday through Monday...Long wave trough remains off the
Pacific Northwest and west coast of Canada. Long wave trough over
the Desert Southwest shifts east into the Great Plains. Downstream
ridge builds over the Great Lakes and Hudson Bay. A fairly active
pattern is expected with many short waves moving through the flow.
A chance for precip through much of the period.

The ECMWF was trending south while the GFS was trending farther
west. The ECMWF was a faster solution than the GFS. Will blend the
models.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1141 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Issue thru 14-16z will be ground fog potential at BJI/TVF sites
where risk is highest. GFK/FAR may get some but risk is
considerably lower. Some IFR conditions at TVF/BJI psbl due to the
fog but otherwise VFR. South-southwest winds picking up some Tues
aftn to 8-15 kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon/Hoppes
AVIATION...Riddle



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