Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 300234
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
934 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WILL AGAIN UPDATE THE FORECAST TO MATCH BETTER WITH CURRENT CLOUD
TRENDS. LOW CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY CLEARED OUT OF THE KDVL REGION BUT
THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH. THE FINGER OF CLOUDS THAT WAS
ALONG A GRAND RAPIDS TO ALEXANDRIA LINE HAS SHIFTED INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FA. THIS FINGER MAY CONTINUE TO EXPAND TO THE NORTH. NOT
LOOKING LIKE ANY AREA WILL STAY TOTALLY CLEAR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MAJORITY OF EASTERN CWA HAS
CLEARED OUT WITH WESTERN HALF CELLULAR IN NATURE. RADAR SHOWS
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL WELL TO
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA UP THROUGH DICKINSON
ND. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH INCOMING SYSTEM AND WILL USE A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND NAM DNG5 FOR
TEMPERATURES. FOR WED/THU TIMEFRAME THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH LOW POPS...AND WILL TREND TOWARD CONTINUITY FOR
THIS PERIOD.

TONIGHT...CELLULAR CLOUDS OVER EASTERN ND SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE
AS EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP AND ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
CIRRUS CLOUDS TO SOUTHWEST WILL WORK THEIR WAY TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM LOW MOVING NORTH WILL
KEEP WINDS WARM ENOUGH TO NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP TOO FAR INTO THE
30S IN THE CLEARER EASTERN ZONES.

TOMORROW...SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SD AND INCREASE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS STRONGEST IN THE DEVILS LAKE REGION. OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL
NEED TO EVALUATE FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL BUT CURRENT GRIDS ARE
BELOW CRITERIA.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE NAM IS SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
MOVING AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH DEF ZONE. THE GFS
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE AND FOR THIS REASON REMOVED
LIKELY POPS IN MY SOUTHEASTERN ZONES UNTIL MAIN PRECIP ARRIVES.
ULTIMATELY THE MODELS ARE TARGETING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHICH
INCLUDES MY FAR WESTERN ZONES. SFC LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO SRN
MB BY WED AM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WED AND THU...SFC LOW MOVES INTO MB ON WED AND WESTERLY FLOW SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON AMT OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTH AND HAVE KEPT LOW POPS IN PER
CONTINUITY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WED AFTN AND HAVE BUMPED
UP SFC TEMPS A FEW DEG ABOVE GUIDANCE ACCORDINGLY.

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...THIS PERIOD FEATURES A TRANSITION TO AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH/WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. ONE SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE
TO HELP IN THIS TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. USUAL TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BUT
GENERAL IDEA IS THAT OF BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD.THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN FAIRLY RAPID MOVEMENT OF SURFACE
TROUGHS/RIDGES AND ATTENDANT CHC POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY CLOSE TO EARLY OCTOBER MEANS WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES
EARLY WARMING BY END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TOUGH CALL FOR THE TAFS MAINLY DUE TO CLOUD TRENDS. ALWAYS A
TOUGH DECISION WHEN CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE THINNING WITH THE SETTING
SUN. SOMETIMES THE HOLES FILL BACK IN BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE
IDEA OF THE CLOUDS MAINLY HANGING IN AND AROUND KDVL. KBJI COULD
GET SOME PATCHY FOG WITH CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS OR THE CLOUD LINE
FROM KAXN TO KGPZ COULD LIFT BACK NORTHWARD. THE RED RIVER VALLEY
WILL BE IN BETWEEN AND WILL DELAY ANY INCREASE IN CLOUDS UNTIL
LATE NIGHT/EARLY TUE. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP ON TUE
MORNING AND LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT PCPN MAY WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD SO MAY ADD THIS TO
THE 06Z SET OF TAFS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...EWENS/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GODON





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