Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 151601
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1001 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 954 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Reports have been arriving of freezing rain/drizzle as far south
as Detroit Lakes, and even Fergus Falls is reporting some BR at
the AWOS site. This is in addition to some FZDZ up in the
northeastern counties. GOES 16 RBG image shows some breaks in the
low, supercooled water clouds moving towards DTL, so think that
the FZDZ in west central MN should be short lived. Further north,
there are some higher clouds to act as feeder-seeder and generate
a change over to snow showers. Overall there will be a decrease in
rising motion for the rest of today as the shortwave kicks east.
Think that our eastern counties will see a short period of FZDZ
before ending, but that will be enough to bring slick roads. Expanded
mention of FZDZ in the grids further south and put out a graphic
highlighting the threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 355 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Surface trough just east of the forecast area will intensify
today as the system moves east. 100 to 160M height falls are
expected today as upper system also intensifies. System closes
off at lower levels. Wrap around precip over southern MAN will
move across the northeast zones today. Also precipitable water
was around a third of an inch and will decrease during the day
except in the northeast zones where precipitable water will
decrease late today and tonight.

East-west cross section indicated a nearly adiabatic boundary
layer this morning. Most of the cold advection is occurring
around 900 hpa. So expect winds to be up today and will
increase winds. Winds will back off after sunset. Fog loop
indicated breaks in the low clouds over parts of central and
western ND and in southern MAN. However southern MAN clear
spots may fill in with clouds with developing system. Some
clearing will be possible this afternoon and tonight mainly
over the southwest zones.

Return flow will occur Thu with winds gusty again but out of the
south at 20 to 30 knots.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 355 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

An upper level ridge will be centered over the Upper Mississippi
River Valley on Thursday night, drifting east across the Great Lakes
region. An upper level wave will be moving east across the prairie
provinces and the Northern Plains states Thursday night as well. A
strong frontogenesis band will develop over eastern ND and push
northeast into far northern MN ahead of this wave. Models hint at
warmer temps aloft with this feature, which may result in sleet or
freezing rain across northeast ND. Liquid precipitation of 0.10" to
maybe 0.25" on the upper end look to be possible at this time. If it
was snow it might be and inch or two but if it`s freezing rain or
sleet, it could be a big problem. Plenty of uncertainty exists
still, however.

As the upper level trough passes...so does the surface low and cold
front. Still, highs are expected to be in the 30s for the most part
on Friday. A stronger push of cold air comes Friday night...keeping
highs in the upper teens and 20s for Saturday. After Saturday, a dry
warming trend is expected until Monday night/Tuesday when another
push of cold air will drop south from Canada, perhaps along with
some snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 659 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Satellite indicated a cloudy sky over much of the area. However
some breaks were located over parts of northeast ND, parts of
western and central ND, and over far southwest MAN. Expect a
mostly cloudy sky for today and tonight. MVFR condition were
located over most of the area. Some MVFR conditions were located
over the far northeast zones and VFR conditions in the far
southern zones. Expect most MVFR conditions for today. Conditions
should slowly improve overnight. Cigs should rise into the VFR
category for most of the area by 12Z Thu.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...Knutsvig
AVIATION...JH



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