Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 201130
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
630 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2016

Updated for aviation below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2016

We will get a reprieve from the active weather pattern early this
week as cooler and drier air has filtered into the region behind
yesterday`s cold frontal passage. With high pressure spreading
in from the west, lots of sunshine is anticipated today with
cooler highs in the 70s. It will be breezy, though, with diurnal
mixing up above 850 mb, where winds will remain in the 20-30 kt
range today. Mostly clear conditions will persist tonight with a
few of the cooler locations possibly dropping into the upper 40s
(low to mid 50s elsewhere).

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2016

The region will remain under the influence of northwest flow aloft
and surface high pressure on Tuesday. Temps may climb a few
degrees higher compared with Monday with rather light winds.

The next chance for showers/storms will arrive Tuesday Night into
Wednesday as an upper level shortwave trough passes across the
region. Currently expect storms to form across the northern high
plains late Tuesday near a surface trough as the upper trough
approaches. Showers and storms should then push eastward into the
region later Tuesday Night into Wednesday in conjunction with the
upper wave/surface boundary. At this point expect the severe
threat to be limited with overall modest moisture/instability, but
there is still some uncertainty with details as would be expected.
High pressure will begin to build back into the area on Wednesday
Night.

An upper ridge will bring dry weather on Thursday before a strong
upper low moves across southern Canada or the northern tier of the
CONUS on Friday into the weekend.  ECMWF is further north with track
of upper low than the GFS, however both models indicate a more
active pattern from Friday through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2016

VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours. Northwest winds
will increase this morning with gusts in the 20-30 kt range
through afternoon (highest over MN terminals) before rapidly
subsiding early this evening.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAM/Speicher
AVIATION...JAM



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