Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 111738
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1238 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

MAIN CONCERN REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON WILL BE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE EASTERN FA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ORIENTED FROM NEAR ROX
SOUTH TO THE ND/SD/MN BORDER AREA. AIRMASS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY UNSTABLE BUT REMAINS CAPPED. BASED ON CURRENT BOUNDARY
POSITION AND EXPECTED TIMING OF FROPA APPEARS TO BE A SMALL WINDOW
BETWEEN TIME CAP WEAKENS ALLOWING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND
WHEN BOUNDARY EXITS FA TO THE EAST. WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS
ACROSS THE FAR EAST WITH POTENTIAL. ALSO NUDGED MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES UPWARD A DEGREE OR SO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FA ALONG WITH EXITING SHORT WAVE.
SHRA ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL ND ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK IMPULSE
PROPAGATING INTO COLUMN OF DRIER AIR AND BEING IN DIURNALLY STABLE
TIME OF DAY RAIN CHANCES REMAINDER OF THE MORNING UNLIKELY. KEPT
WESTERN FA DRY AND LOWERED/LIMITED POPS TO THE FAR EAST STILL
BEING EAST OF SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING THE VALLEY. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 708 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SASK/MAN WILL MOVE INTO ONTARIO BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BETTER THAN 100+ M HEIGHT FALLS TO OUR NORTH. IN WAKE
OF UPPER TROUGH, A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THE GFS WAS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FEATURES AND WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.

MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN AT MID LEVELS TODAY.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE TODAY SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM WINDS
WITH THETA-E DEFICITS EXCEEDING 21C BETWEEN LOW AND MID LEVELS. IF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY OVER SOUTHERN SD AND SOUTHERN MN, THEN
MAY ROB MOISTURE SUPPLY IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED RIDGE BUILDING OVER WESTERN CANADA. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES TO MOVE SOUTH AND
AMPLIFY SAT NIGHT AND SUN.

VORTICITY LOBES WILL ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIP SUN NIGHT.

PERSISTENT RAIN FELL OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WARNING FOR EASTERN OTTER TAIL AND SOUTHERN WADENA COUNTIES THIS
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

00Z ECMWF/GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS PERIOD SO USED BLEND.
MONDAY WILL SEE THE STRONG UPPER LOW DROP INTO NRN MINNESOTA WITH
CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THOUGH WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
BUILDING QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WELL WITH DRY
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMBING CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

WIND SHIFT/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST...AND IS NOW
THROUGH ALL TAF SITES. THERE MAY BE SCATTERED CU BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...BUT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY
WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG





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