Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 241215
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
715 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 711 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE. VERY SHORT RANGE MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON HOW FAR
NORTH AND HOW MUCH SHOWERS WILL ADVANCE NORTH TODAY. HRRR/RAP A
BIT DRIER... HOP WRF FROM WFO MPX AND ARW-WRF A BIT MORE
AGRESSIVE FOR PRECIP INTO SE ND. RADAR AT 12Z SHOWS SOME VERY
LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE SD/MN BORDER IN THE ORTONVILLE AREA. THIS IS
PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH AND LIKELY FIZZLE OUT SOME THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL LIKELY FORM IN SD AND MOVE NORTH. SPED UP
POPS JUST A TAD FOR BLENDING WITH WFOS MPX/ABR...BUT OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ANOTHER DAY AND ANOTHER MODEL RUN WHERE NCEP MODELS...ALONG WITH
CANADIAN AND ECMWF...CONTINUE TO DELAY THE PRECIP ARRIVAL
NORTHWARD INTO ERN ND/NW MN. ALL MODELS ALSO ARE MUCH FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST WITH MAIN QPF FROM SYSTEM AND HAVE VERY LITTLE TO
NO QPF NORTH OF DEVILS LAKE-GRAND FORKS-THIEF RIVER FALLS. SO MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS ACCORDINGLY.

FOR TODAY...WILL SEE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER. NE ND/NW MN TO SEE STILL A GOOD DEAL OF SUN AND WITH A WARM
START...EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. THERE IS A NARROW
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PIERRE SD TO ABOUT BROOKINGS SD MOVING
NORTH. MOST MODELS HAVE THIS MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE ND BORDER
MIDDAY AND INTO SE ND/PARTS OF WCNTRL MN THIS AFTN BEFORE DRYING
IT UP. WILL DELAY ONSET OF POPS IN SE ND/WCNTRL MN TIL MORE LATE
MORNING-EARLY AFTN. ANOTEHR SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS UPPER AIR TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST AND SFC LOW MOVES
FROM WESTERN MISSOURI THRU IOWA TO EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. RAIN
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD BUT TRACK OF LOW AND
TROUGH IS A BIT FARTHER EAST AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING STRONG
IN MANITOBA..IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT ANY
SIGNIFCANT PRECIP WILL BE FARGO-BEMIDJI AND SOUTH AND EAST WITH
VERY LITTLE TO NONE NORTH OF DVL-GFK-TVF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVER WCNTRL-NCNTRL MN MONDAY NIGHT AS
SYSTEMS MOVES EAST. TUESDAY WILL START OFF DRY...BUT THEN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER JUST SOUTH OF A WEAK FRONT
NR A YORKTON-WINNIPEG-KENORA LINE TO GENERATE A FEW T-STORMS TUES
AFTN/NIGHT. LOOKS QUITE WARM WITH HIGH TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MAINLY ZONAL FLOW AT
BEGINNING OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS S MB INTO ONTARIO. BOUNDARY SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTH INTO A
WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS JUSTIFY LOW POPS FIRST OVER NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA MOVING SOUTH BY LATER WEDNESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER NORTH/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL HEAD
EAST THURSDAY FAVORING MORE SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF REGION.

BY FRIDAY COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER SUPPRESSING
PCPN TO CENTRAL PLAINS AND BRINGING BELOW SEASONAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS
IN 60S AND LOWS IN 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 711 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR EXPECTED TODAY...THEN SOME MVFR CIG OR VSBYS PSBL TONIGHT IN
FARGO AREA DUE TO RAIN AND MVFR CIGS. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
SPREADING NORTH TODAY AS LIGHT WINDS BECOME MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
PUT SHOWERS IN FARGO LATER TODAY THRU TONIGHT AS CHANCE IS
GOOD...DID NOT INCLUDE GFK-TVF-DVL DUE TO LOWER CHANCE. ALSO NOT
IN KBJI YET DUE TO UNCERTAIN TIMING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE



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