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000
FXUS63 KFGF 301453
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
953 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER QUIET DAY ACROSS THE FA WITH THE MAIN
QUESTION PROBABLY BEING THE DEGREE OF LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON CUMULUS FORMATION. THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE FEATURED
SCT-BKN CUMULUS OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE FA. THINNEST AREA HAS
BEEN OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. WILL BUMP UP CLOUD
AMOUNTS A LITTLE MORE OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE THE SAME AS ITS BEEN FOR THE
PAST WEEK WITH THE STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...TEMPS AND CLOUDS. NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AS BROAD SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER BETWEEN WESTERN
RIDGING/MONSOONAL ACTIVITY AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING.

SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED ONCE AGAIN IN THE DVL BSN SO WILL ADD A
PATCHY MENTION THRU 8AM.

FOR TODAYS MAX TEMPS WENT A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE COLUMN WARMS A TOUCH...THEN DOWN A
DEGREE OR TWO FOR THURSDAY. NONETHELESS HIGH TEMPS NEAR 80 BOTH
DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT LITTLE CHANGE FROM CURRENT
WEATHER PATTERN. POTENTIAL FOR A PCPN JUST EAST OF THE FA AS A
SHORT WAVE CLIPS ARROWHEAD OF MN. FRIDAY MAX TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE
A REPEAT OF THE PREVIOUS DAYS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE VERY QUIET PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT TO
A MORE ACTIVE ONE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE WESTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. THIS WILL HELP
PUSH A SFC FRONT INTO THE REGION...WHICH DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL
SOLUTION VERIFIES...WILL COME DOWN SOMETIME ON SUNDAY AND COULD
STALL RIGHT OVER THE CWA OR JUST SOUTH OF IT BY EARLY IN THE WORK
WEEK. WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACT TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARY...KEPT THE BLENDED POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT GOING WITH ONLY
SOME VERY MINOR TWEAKS. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL PEAK ON SUNDAY
JUST ABOVE AVERAGE BEFORE COOLING OFF AGAIN TO THE 70S FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR WITH FOG ERODING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AT DVL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...JK