Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 250443
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1143 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

There is a severe thunderstorm watch for portions of northeast ND
until 5 am. However the storms out west of Minot are moving quite
fast and should be into areas west of Devils Lake not long after
midnight. Still uncertain how much of the area will be affected,
but strong winds and hail are the main threats. Quite a bit of the
high resolution guidance is showing the activity west of Minot
lifting NE into southern Manitoba. However will have to watch and
see.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Main forecast challenges will be convective/severe potential
tonight and again Saturday afternoon. Main model differences
revolve around when cap will break allowing convective initiation
from anytime from mid/late afternoon to late evening depending on
model solution. Waiting game ahead.

For tonight global GFS/ECMWF models continue with convective
initiation farther south and earlier across the fa in warm
advection zone. These models even develop convection well within
high CIN area as far south as FAR. NSSL and HRRRX cams on the
other hand hold off on initiation with strong cap and develop
convection mid to late evening on fringe of cap across the far
north or even into southern Canada. Even farther south GFS showing
high CIN values with convective temperatures in the mid 90s.
Upper support lags with upper low still way back west in Montana.
So at this time am leaning toward later/farther north cam
solutions which make more sense. Will see in the next few hours.
With potential convection heavy rain concerns for far northern
valley into adjacent areas of NE ND and NW MN. These areas already
saturated and additional heavy rains will cause issues. At this
point there is enough uncertainty to hold off on any flood watch
headlines however this could change quickly if global models
verify and will need to monitor closely. Late tonight could see
another round of convection propagating in from the west however
low level jet not all that impressive so not sure how this
convection will hold together. Mixing and warm column will result
in warm and somewhat muggy night.

Will likely see some degree of convection Saturday morning with
general consensus over NW MN. Severe threat Saturday afternoon
will hinge on location of cold front. Still appears to be 2-4
hour window east of the valley for some severe potential. If so
expect convection to be east of the fa by 00z. Base on timing of
FROPA warmest temperatures will be along and east of the valley
with cooler readings to the west.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Models in good agreement with low pressure system occluding along
the Manitoba Ontario border with PCPN wrap-around showers limited to
areas along the international border Saturday night. During the day
Sunday showers are expected to develop farther south...mainly along
and to the north of HWY 2...as low convective temps are reached
under cool air aloft. Thereafter PCPN chances through the week will
be limited as NW flow aloft keeps instability and or deep moisture
to the south and west. Slight chances for some convective activity
return in the afternoon Wednesday to Friday with confidence and
coverage limited. Temperatures will be seasonal with highs in the
mid to upper 70s with a few 80s possible toward the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Not much change to the previous set of TAFs. Looking like best
chances for any thunder after midnight will be at KDVL. As the
frontal boundary works across the area this afternoon there could
be more thunder chances at KBJI. Otherwise expect to see gusty
west winds behind the front for the afternoon into early evening.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...Godon



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