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000
FXUS63 KFGF 111611
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1011 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013

THE MAIN CHANGE THIS MORNING WILL BE TO EXTEND THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z...AS WINDS INCREASE TODAY WITH SUB ZERO
TEMPS. TEMPS COULD ACTUALLY WARM SOME OVERNIGHT AS LIGHT SNOW AND
CLOUDS MOVE IN...SO NOT EXPECTING A WIND CHILL HEADLINE AFTER 00Z
BUT WILL MONITOR. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS AND LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK. MODELS IN FAIRLY AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL USE
BLEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL DRIFT SE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY EVENING. AS IS DOES WESTERLY FLOW/WARM
ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER A COLD START
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. FAVORED WARM ADVECTION IN COMBINATION WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE WILL BRING WARMEST
TEMPERATURES TO THE WESTERN FA. CONCERNING WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE CURRENT ADVISORY THROUGH NOON. COULD SEE A BREAK IN ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF CLOUD
COVER PARTS OF THE NE FA MAY NEED ANOTHER ADVISORY BUT WILL LET
DAY SHIFT MONITOR AND DECIDE.

FIRST IN A SERIES SHORTWAVES ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING JET STREAKS
WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION TONIGHT. GENERAL MODELS CONSENSUS
INDICATING BAND OF LIGHT SNOW AFFECTING MAINLY SW HALF OF FA. AS
IN THE PAST IMPULSES ONLY A DUSTING EXPECTED. ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP SOME WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NE CORNER OF THE FA WHERE LESS CLOUDS ANTICIPATED.

THURSDAY WILL LIKELY SEE A PAUSE IN ANY -SN BEFORE NEXT WAVE
APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY. COLUMN CONTINUES TO SLIGHTLY MODERATE
SO ABOVE ZERO TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013

STRONGER WAVE TO AFFECT FA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR BEST
CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. FAVORED AREA AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE
DVL BASIN WHERE A COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE AND WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT INCREASED POPS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BITTER COLD TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WARMING TREND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING BEST CHANCES
FOR LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN MID-
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIMES AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT-WAVES.
MAJOR ACCUMULATIONS NOT EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A FEW INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH EACH EVENT. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH A REINFORCING COLD DUMP BEHIND SATURDAY NIGHT/S FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HIGHS NOT LIKELY TO RISE ABOVE ZERO AS A 1028 HPA SURFACE
HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE
QUITE NICELY ON MONDAY WITH RAPIDLY RISING THERMAL PROFILES. HIGHS
IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. WARM-UP DOES APPEAR SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS TUESDAY BACK
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013

SKIES WILL START OUT SKC WITH INCREASING VFR CLOUDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH REGION HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO ADD SNOW TO ANY TAF SITES AS WILL BE SPOTTY
AND LIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...ROGERS/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER