Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 301758
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1258 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

PARTIAL CLEARING PUSHING INTO THE FAR NORTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. FEEL ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVE HAS ABOUT PUSHED THROUGH SO TRIMMED POPS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

BASED ON UPSTREAM/LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY AS
WELL AS SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE FEEL ANY POTENTIAL FOR
MEASURABLE PCPN WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

FCST ON TRACK. ENHANCED CLOUDS ASSOC WITH LEADING EDGE OF SHORT
WAVE MOVING SOUTH ENTERING NE ND/FAR NW MN ATTM. SEEING A FEW WEAK
RETURNS ON RADAR WITH THIS AND PORTAGE MB REPORTS -SN AT 11Z. SO
IDEA OF A FEW SPITS/FLURRIES WITH SHORT WAVE SEEMS REASONABLE NRN
VALLEY AND NW MN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

ONE 500 MB SHORTWAVE NEAR FARGO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SFC LOW
NORTH OF VALLEY CITY. AS THIS WAVE AND SFC LOW PASSES EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH THRU THE EARLY
MORNING. LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN
MINNESOTA MAINLY BEMIDJI AREA SOUTHWARD THRU MID MORNING. UPSTREAM
IS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL RAPIDLY DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM
CENTRAL MANITOBA TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. EXPECT A FAST MOVING
SURGE OF COLD AIR TO DROP THRU THE AREA TODAY...WITH NORTH WIND
GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS THIS AFTN. SC WITH THIS FEATURE UPSTREAM
AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP ON OBS AT DAUPHIN MANITOBA. THIS CLOUD BAND
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MODELS HINT AT SOME
LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS WAVE MAINLY NRN RRV THRU NW MN.
SKIES WILL CLEAR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER NE ND AS STRONG DRYING
OCCURS IN THE LOW LEVELS DUE TO COLD ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL RISE
SOME TODAY BUT LIKELY STABILIZE OR FALL A FEW MID TO LATE AFTN.
HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO ERN/CNTRL ND BY 12Z FRIDAY AND WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND DIMINISHING WIND EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S. SUNNY FRIDAY AS HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WINDS SETTING UP FRI LATE AFTN IN ERN
ND. COOL DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS TO INCREASE FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE INTO MONTANA. VERY DRY AIRMASS
AT THE LOW LEVELS SO NO PRECIP THRU SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL
MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM PROPAGATES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE REGION LATER
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE A DAY OR
SO LATER. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND MOSTLY LIQUID
(ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW FLAKES COULD BE POSSIBLE). TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MOSTLY MVFR CIGS WERE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN MAN.  OCCASIONAL VFR CIGS AROUND 4 THOUSAND FT
WERE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. CLOUDS WERE MOVING TO THE SOUTH
AROUND 40 KNOTS. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO MOVE SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS MAY RISE A BIT INTO THE 25 TO 35
HUNDRED FT CATEGORY FOR AREA THAT CURRENTLY HAVE CIGS AROUND 15
HUNDRED. SKY SHOULD CLEAR OFF AFTER SUNSET EXCEPT IN THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES WHICH SHOULD CLEAR OFF LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL ALSO
SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER






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