Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 221741
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1241 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
ACROSS THE RED LAKES AND LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON... WITH AN ISOLATED THUDERSTORM POSSIBLE IN THE MIX.
MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SEASONBLY MILD. NO SIG CHANGES TO
FCST PACKAGE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN, THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE SIMILAR AND
FASTER THAN THE NAM AND THE GEM. NAM WAS THE SLOWEST MODEL. AT THE
SURFACE, THE ECMWF WAS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION OF THE SET. WILL PREFER
THE ECMWF.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MT/ND
BORDER. SHORT WAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MAN THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE SCATTERED PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
TODAY.

ALSO WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY TODAY, THEN WEAKENS A BIT. TROUGH
MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND
INTENSIFIES AGAIN AFTER 72 HOURS.

ALSO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SAT/SAT NIGHT/SUN AND PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP. 700 THETA-E RIDGE ALSO MOVES OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE
WATER RISES TO TO OVER 2 INCHES BY SAT. WILL ADD THREAT OF HEAVY
RAIN FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

/MON THROUGH FRI/
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT IN AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK WITH A
CHANGING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...HOWEVER THE GFS IS FASTER WITH A
SHARP SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK. IT IS ALSO
MUCH DRIER WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CWA. DRY POPS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA (MOST OF ND AND NW MN) ON
MON/TUE SEEM REASONABLE WITH UPPER PATTERN KEEPING BEST ENERGY FROM
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. BY WED/THU THE GFS BUILDS A
RIDGE OVER SASKATCHEWAN WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT FURTHER WEST WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS AND ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED. DAY SIX SHOWING SOME LIGHT
PRECIP OVER AREA WITH THE NW FLOW PATTERN BECOMING DRY AT
NIGHT...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE FOR NW UPPER FLOW PATTERN. FOR LATE
IN THE WEEK THE GFS CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER AND MB...KEEPING THINGS DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE
ZONAL FLOW WITH WAVES MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. WILL LOWER INHERITED
CHANCE POPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN MODEL
SOLUTION BEGIN ON FRI...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A STRONG LOW BRINGING
PRECIP TO THE AREA AND THE ECMWF CONTINUES THE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN...GIVING ME VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN SOLUTION FOR DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY
WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT. OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS...WITH SPOTS OF SCT CLOUD COVER OVER LAKES
COUNTRY. EXPECTING SOME SOLAR TO PENETRATE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS RAISING CIGS A BIT...BUT 925MB AND 850MB FORECAST MOISTURE
FIELDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PERSISTENT CIGS THRU THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THEREFORE...WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE AIR
MASS...WILL RAISE CIGS A BIT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD.
LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET WILL ALLOW CIGS TO FILL IN...AND WILL
MAINLY DROP DOWN TO IFR...WITH SOME MVR CIGS MIXED IN. SOME AREAS OF
PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT LOOKING TO BE
PREDOMINANT AT THE TAF SITES ATTM.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPKINS






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