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000
FXUS63 KFGF 262101
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
301 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE TEMPS AND THEN THE NEXT CHANCE
OF PCPN WED/WED NIGHT. LIKE PREVIOUS SHIFT DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE FOR THE WED/WED NIGHT EVENT GIVEN RECENT MODEL
PERFORMANCE. AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE CLOUD BAND HAS SHIFTED
ALL THE WAY DOWN THRU KFAR AND KBWP. TEMPS HAVE BEEN FALLING FOR
MOST OF THE FA AFTER LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS. FAR SW FA
IS THE ONLY SPOT YET TO SEE THE COOLING. WEAK SFC HIGH WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION TAKING OVER AGAIN.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEAR HOLES...QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE
WILL BE ANY FOG FORMATION. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS VERY LITTLE
SNOW COVER OVER EASTERN ND OTHER THAN POSSIBLY THE KDVL REGION.
THINK MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH THE WARM ADVECTION KEEPING ANY CLEARING MINIMAL.
ALSO WITH SUCH MINIMAL SNOW COVER DO NOT THINK THERE WAS MUCH
MELTING TO CONTRIBUTE MUCH MOISTURE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY.
THEREFORE WILL LEAVE FOG MENTIONED ACROSS THE FAR WEST/SW AND NOT
EXPAND THE MENTION FOR NOW. WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK AT IT. WILL SEE SFC WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH ON TUE AS
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES. STRAIGHT SOUTH WINDS NOT GREAT FOR
WARMING SO BEST WARMING SHOULD BE IN AREAS THAT SEE SUN. ANY
THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER TUE
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MODELS BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO AREAS NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR WED AND SINK IT SOUTH WED NIGHT. CURRENTLY EXPECT MAYBE
AN INCH OR SO AT MOST WITH THIS...BUT AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS IS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE OR TOWARD EVEN LOWER AMOUNTS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT ON THU BUT TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER.

FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TEMPS SHOULD COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BY
THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL NO MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED...WITH
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS WEEK AHEAD OF THE COOL DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

THERE IS A BAND OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS...AND THIS
BAND OF CLOUDS IS DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH AND WEST. NOT SURE IF THESE
CIGS WILL MAKE IT TO KDVL...BUT THEY SHOULD MOVE INTO KFAR THIS
AFTERNOON. NW WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY TO NEAR 25-30KT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE QUICKLY SUBSIDING THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...DK