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000
FXUS63 KFGF 160455
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1155 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

AREA OF PRECIP ON RADAR TRYING ITS BEST TO SATURATE IN THE MINOT
TO CARRINGTON TO JAMESTOWN AREA AND AND OBS INDICATE SOME LIGHT
SNOW REACHING THE GROUND...MORE SO IN THE MINOT AREA. AS UPPER
WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST WITH RADAR SHOWING INCREASING ECHOES IN WRN
SD EXPECT SNOW AREA TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN FAR SE ND/WCNTRL MN.
SO KEPT IDEA OF LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT IN FAR SE ND/WCNTRL MN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY SNOW EVENT LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH
MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW BAND FOR WEDNESDAY. GFS/NAM/GEM HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WITH MAIN SNOW BAND. ECMWF REMAINS CONSISTENT
WITH LESS QPF THROUGH THE EVENT.

FOR TONIGHT MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
SPREADING NW-SE ACROSS THE FA. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT DEAL
OF UPPER FORCING AS MAIN WAVE JUST CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TOWARDS
MORNING AS WAVE APPROACHES H7 LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED OVER E
CENTRAL SD WITH FAVORED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND NORTH OF LOW. SO EXPECT NW-SE ORIENTED SNOW BAND TO
BECOME MORE E-W FROM EASTERN SD-WEST CENTRAL MN WITH COMMON ND
BORDER AREA ON NORTHERN FRINGE. OVERALL STILL LOOKING AT GENERAL
1-3 INCHES OVERNIGHT. MIXING AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE
DROP OVERNIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/ Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHIFTS
DUE EAST FROM E SD INTO S MN. THIS WILL PUT FAR SE FA ON NORTHERN
AND WESTERN FRINGE OF HEAVIER SNOW BAND. FOR THIS HAVE ISSUED
WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW. SNOW RATIOS AND IF WE
CAN GET TO OR ABOVE MELTING WILL HAVE A BEARING ON SNOW AMOUNTS.
SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO PULL EAST MID AFTERNOON.

ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL DIMINISH EARLY EVENING. NOT MUCH COLDER AIR
WRAPPING AROUND SYSTEM AND DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE TEMPERATURES BLO AVERAGE ESPECIALLY WITH NEW SNOW FALL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN THURSDAY AND WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER COLUMN
AND MID APRIL SOLAR TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER IN SPITE OF FRESH
SNOW.

REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS QUIET WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARM UP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR EASTER WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. INCREASING
THICKNESSES AS 500MB FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND 850MB WAA BEGINS
SATURDAY IN WHICH NWP INDICATES A POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF WAA PCPN
FROM WEST TO EAST TO CROSS THE AREA. ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY BEFORE MORE RIDGING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING 60S FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS SFC LOW MOVES INTO ERN SD BY 12Z WED
AND EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL 15 TO 30 KTS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS BEST SHOT OF ANY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS REMAIN IN
FARGO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK TIL ABOUT LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE KEPT VFR CIGS BUT COULD BE ISOLD MVFR CIGS AT TIMES DVL
BASIN INTO GFK-BJI AREAS. UNCERTAIN ON TIMING AND LOW CONFIDENCE
LEADS TO ME TO KEEP IT MOSTLY LOW END VFR THRU WED AFTN BEFORE
CLEARING MOVES SOUTH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE COLD NIGHTS AND COOL DAYTIME HIGHS ARE PUTTING A DAMPER ON
ANY ADDITIONAL RUNOFF. WAS ABLE TO ISSUE LAST FORECASTS FOR SABIN
DILWORTH AND GRAFTON. THE REMAINING POINTS IN HYDROLOGIC
STATEMENTS OR FLOOD STATEMENTS ARE ALL AT OR NORTH OF GRAND FORKS.
ONLY SITES STILL RISING ARE DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ON THE RED RIVER.
STILL ANTICIPATE THE COOLER WEATHER LASTING INTO THURSDAY WITH
SOME MODERATION COMING BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO MAINLY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MNZ030>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE
HYDROLOGY...GODON