Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KFGF 202347
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
647 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MAIN LINE OF SEVERE STORMS HAS MOVED WELL OFF TO OUR EAST...BUT
SOME ADDITIONAL STORMS FIRING AS THE NEXT VORT LOBE MOVES DOWN OUT
OF CANADA. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY LEFT TO WORK WITH...ONLY ABOUT 250
J/KG...BUT SOME THUNDER AND EVEN PEA SIZED HAIL IS POSSIBLE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN VALLEY. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AND MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE VORT
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO MN. ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THIS. CLOUDS
WILL HANG AROUND IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES BUT THE WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A CLEARING TREND. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOWS IN
THE 40S IN THE WEST TO 50S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE ANY SEVERE WEATHER THAT LINGERS INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND ALSO ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO TONIGHT. AS OF
MID AFTERNOON THE SFC BOUNDARY HAD SHIFTED TO A KROX TO KFSE TO KBWP
LINE. ALL THE CONVECTION WAS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY.
SPC HAS PORTIONS OF THE FA AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN A SEVERE TSTM
WATCH UNTIL 8 PM...BUT THESE STORMS SHOULD CLEAR THIS FA BY 4 TO 5
PM AS THEY ARE MOVING EASTWARD AT A GOOD CLIP. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
OVER THE KDVL REGION CLOUDS WERE THINNING BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WERE
BREEZY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE AREAS OF COMPACT
SPINNING...ONE OVER CENTRAL/SE ND AND ANOTHER ONE UP OVER THE
MANITOBA LAKES REGION. MODELS SHOW THE FIRST WAVE PUSHING INTO
CENTRAL MN BY EARLY EVENING AS THE WINNIPEG LAKES WAVE DROPS INTO
NORTHWEST MN. THIS SHEAR AXIS HOLDS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY
PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME SHOWERS TO HANG AROUND MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST MN. WOULD ALSO EXPECT MORE CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE VALLEY
WITH LESS TO THE WEST. THE WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE KDVL REGION
WILL PROBABLY PUSH TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING AND THEN
DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP SOME SHOWERS AROUND
OVER NORTHWEST MN ON SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST TO MATCH OTHER ADJACENT OFFICES. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DROP
OFF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR MONDAY INTO MON NIGHT WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN COMING ON TUE. WITH THE TUE SYSTEM BETTER CHANCES
SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE.

FOR WED THRU SAT...WILL START OUT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FA
ON WED MAINLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST BY THU. THIS WILL SET UP A
TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY. THEREFORE AFTER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS WED IT LOOKS
SEASONAL FOR TEMPS WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PCPN THU INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

KBJI AND KGFK WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY PRECIP AS THE TAF
PERIOD STARTS BUT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FOR
MOST LOCATIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS STARTING TO DROP OFF IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. SREF AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LOWER CIGS
MOVING DOWN OUT OF CANADA AND INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...SO
INCLUDED SOME MVFR CIGS FOR KGFK...KTVF...AND KBJI LATER TONIGHT.
ALL SITES SHOULD BECOME VFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD TOMORROW.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW 12
KTS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...JR






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.