Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 191239
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
639 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MIXING AND CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UP. WITH
CURRENT VALUES HAD TO RAISE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. NO
OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS LINGERING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL PREFERENCE.

BOUNDARY HAS CLEARED THE EASTERN FA AND -SN OVER THE FAR EAST
SHOULD TRANSITION TO FLURRIES WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
STILL A MORE ENHANCED AREA OF -SN MOVING ACROSS S CENTRAL MB SO
WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS VCNTY LAKE OF THE WOODS WHERE THERE IS
ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL.
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT TRICKY INITIALLY. FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER UPSTREAM S SASK. SOME BREAKS SHOWING UP HOWEVER WITH MOIST
LAYER BLO 700MB AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TEENS ANY
BREAKS SHOULD FILL IN FOR GENERALLY CLOUD CONDITIONS TODAY. SO FAR
CLOUDS AND MIXING HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES UP. COLD ADVECTION TODAY
NOT VERY STRONG BUT WITH CLOUDS HOLDING MOST OF THE DAY RECOVERY
WILL BE MINIMAL. WILL BE MONITORING TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THEN ALLOW A FEW DEGREE RECOVERY DURING THE DAY.

COLUMN UNDERGOES GRADUAL DRYING TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM W TO E WITH
THE FAR EAST HOLDING CLOUDS LONGEST. CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE
OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS SO THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MINOR
MIXING. CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE MAIN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES BUT WITH
COLD COLUMN SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE FA THURSDAY FOR QUIET BUT COLD
CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST WITH RETURN FLOW/WARM
ADVECTION INCREASING DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
EARLY TEMPERATURES DROP FOLLOWED BY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING
VALUES. FAR EAST WILL BE THE COLDEST AS LAST TO BE AFFECTED BY
MIXING AND WARM ADVECTION.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK WITH GOOD
MIXING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION.

LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME WITH LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT AT 84 HOURS. HOWEVER THE GFS BECOMES THE FASTER SOLUTION
FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. WILL PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF. SHORT
WAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUN WHILE CONCURRENTLY
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. WILL KEEP RELATIVELY HIGH POPS FOR THE SUN AND MON TIME FRAME.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR SAT AND SUN AND
DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FRO MON AND TUE FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

ALTHOUGH CIGS LIKELY TO COVER THE FA TODAY GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SOME LOWER CIGS ACROSS THE FAR EAST HOWEVER ANTICIPATE
CIGS RISING LIKE THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. BLUSTERY NW WINDS TO
CONTINUE IN THE 15 TO 30KT RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER





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