Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 182325
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
525 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS CLOUDS AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS AFTERNOON WATER
VAPOR SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ND. THIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST AND BE INTO NW MN FRIDAY. AREA OF CLOUDS ASSOC WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA ATTM. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION AS
DEEPER MOISTURE IS NOT PRESENT. BUT GOT A LAYER OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT TONIGHT AS TROUGH
MOVES INTO ERN ND. RADAR SHOWS A FEW WEAK RETURNS RIGHT NEAR THE
MINOT AND BISMARCK RADAR SITES AND WAS A FEW REPORTS THIS AFTN OF
LIGHT MIST IN NORTH CENTRAL SD AND EARLIER TODAY NEAR BISMARCK.
THINK AS THIS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR A FEW FLURRIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND TONIGHT SO INCLUDED. UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INTO NW MN FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
FLURRY MENTION AND CONTINUE A FLURRY/FREEZING DRIZZLE COMBO IN
PARTS OF WCNTRL MN AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANCE OF THAT
MAINLY FERGUS FALLS-WADENA AREAS. OVERALL THOUGH EXPECT A CLOUDY
SKY.

FRI SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO OUR EAST WITH LINGERING FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN ERN FCST AREA. ALL IN ALL ONLY VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS.

AS FOR TEMPS WENT A TAD WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS DUE TO
CLOUDS. AFTN TEMPS TO WARM UP SLOWLY INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SATURDAY WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP BUT CLOUDS LIKELY TOUGH TO
GET RID OF. SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE
TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA GIVING ONCE AGAIN SOME LIGHT
PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE RRV INTO MINNESOTA. ONCE AGAIN
SOUNDINGS WOULD SHOW SOME THREAT FOR A FZDZ/-SN MIX WITH THIS
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT SO INCLUDED TO MATCH UP WITH WFO DLH. TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND TO BE MILD RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY RESPECTIVELY WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORE SO TROUGH
DIGGING DAY5 AND THEREAFTER. THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET FORECAST TO DIG TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS MON THROUGH WED. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE
TRENDING FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER
THE ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ON MON BY A DEGREE OR SO. TEMPS WERE
LOWERED ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON TUE AND HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ONE
TO FOUR DEGREES ON WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

GENERAL TREND WILL BE LOWERING CIGS THIS EVENING...WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD). MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS...BUT SOME
GUIDANCE DOES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS
AND ADJUST IF NEEDED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG






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