Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 152135
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
335 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS LINGERING PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE SE
AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE
BLEND FOR FORECAST.

DEFORMATION BAND OF PCPN FROM EXTREME SE ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN
HAS SHOWN WEAKENING TREND AND HAS TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW
WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH RUC SOUNDINGS. FORTUNATELY WEB CAMS
WITHIN HEAVIEST BAND INDICTED ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS AND GOOD
VISIBILITY. AS SURFACE LOW PROPAGATES EAST THIS EVENING
DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN SHOULD FOLLOW WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING. WITH
EXPECTED TRENDS WILL EXPIRE CURRENT HEADLINES WITH FORECAST
ISSUANCE. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WHICH AT TIMES HAVE FLIRTED WITH
ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING.
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCURRING OVER MB LAKES REGION COULD WORK
INTO THE NORTHERN FA TONIGHT HOWEVER FOR THE MOST PART CLOUDS
SHOULD HOLD. CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD OFF SET COLD ADVECTION WHICH
LEVELS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT SO EXPECTING MINIMUMS A BIT ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. COLUMN GRADUALLY
DRIES OUT HOWEVER W-NW FA MAY BE THE ONLY AREAS WITH ANY POTENTIAL
FOR SOLAR. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY KEEPING MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES BLO AVERAGE.

AS HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TOMORROW NIGHT DIMINISHING WINDS AND
CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER FA WEDNESDAY AND DEGREE OF SOLAR WILL
IMPACT TEMPERATURES HOWEVER WITH COLD START TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE OUT OF THE TEENS.

COLUMN BEGINS TO RECOVER THURSDAY AND WITH SOLAR AND LACK OF SNOW
COVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB BACK TO AVERAGE.

FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...KIND OF A MUDDLED MID LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR FRI THRU SUNDAY. NOT MUCH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY TO WORK WITH. AT THE SFC...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUT STILL KEEPING SOME INFLUENCE OVER
THIS FA. THEREFORE ALTHOUGH MODELS KICK OUT SOME MINIMAL PCPN AT
TIMES WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WEST
COAST RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD UP A LITTLE RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW
IN THIS AREA. SFC PATTERN STILL UNCERTAIN AND THEREFORE PCPN FIELDS
DIFFER QUITE A BIT BETWEEN MODELS. DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES WILL
KEEP SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE
AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO STAY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND RELAX A LITTLE
BY EARLY EVENING...BUT NOT TOO MUCH. WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHER
SUSTAINED WINDS HOLDING THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A LITTLE LESS
GUSTINESS TO THE WIND. AFTER 12Z TUE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE. MAIN QUESTION IS CLOUDS AND CLOUD HEIGHTS. THERE ARE SOME
HOLES NORTH OF WINNIPEG BUT NOT TOO CONFIDENT ANY OF THESE WILL HOLD
TOGETHER AS THEY DROP SOUTHWARD SO HAVE STAYED ON THE PESSIMISTIC
SIDE. ROSE HEIGHTS SOME THRU THE AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING AGAIN
TONIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER





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