Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 290234
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
934 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLOUD COVER PERSISTING OVER THE
AREA. HRRR AND RUC SHOWING A DELAY IN MOVING CLOUDS OUT OF THE DVL
BASIN SO ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS FOR THIS UPDATE. OTHERWISE...REST OF
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL PREFERENCE TODAY.

FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS EVENING IN ALL BUT THE FAR NW. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
WAHPETON TO BAUDETTE LINE...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND THE BEST
LIFT WILL BE. HAVE LINGERED POPS A BIT LONGER IN THE EAST THROUGH
MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NW TO SE. THERE SHOULD BE
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP IN THE NORTH
DURING THE MORNING...THEN IN THE SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE MLCAPES OVER 1500 J/KG...SO A FEW
STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYERED
SHEAR WILL BE WEAK THOUGH...LESS THAN 20 KT...SO EXPECT PULSE TYPE
STORMS WITH PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL AND/OR BRIEF WIND GUSTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

FOR SATURDAY...IT SHOULD BE A DRY AND SEASONABLE DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

FOR SAT NIGHT...A FAIRLY CLASSIC ELEVATED CONVECTIVE EVENT IS
POSSIBLE. A LLJ WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KT INTO CENTRAL ND
AFTER 00Z SUN...ALONG WITH SHOWALTERS FALLING TO AROUND -4C SAT
NIGHT WITH 40KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN
ELEVATED MCS MOVING FROM SW TO NE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A
FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT.

ON SUNDAY...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN THE EAST AND SOUTH. THERE WILL BE AMPLE DEEP LAYERED
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED THE EASTERN AREAS IN A DAY4
OUTLOOK...SO WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND WHICH
AREAS RECEIVE INSOLATION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU...MODELS IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT EARLY IN
THE PERIOD WITH ZONAL UPPER AIR PATTERN AND A FRONT EXITING THE
REGION...WITH MOST ASSOCIATED CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA BY SUN
NIGHT. MAIN DIFFERENCE IS DEPTH OF UPPER LOW OVER WRN
ONTARIO...WITH GFS SHOWING A DEEPER LOW THAN ECMWF. CONSALL
YIELDING CHANCE POPS BACK INTO THE VALLEY WITH THIS EXITING
SYSTEM. WITH 12Z MODEL RUNS FASTER THAN THIS AND NO COORD ISSUES
TO MY WEST...WILL LOWER POPS IN THE VALLEY TO 20S OR DRY. MON
THROUGH WED THEN GENERALLY DRY...WITH A FEW MINOR SHORT WAVES
YIELDING SOME LOW END POPS...AND SEASONAL TEMPS BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM
WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS SRN CANADA AND BRINGS A CHANCE FOR TSTMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

EXPECT MOSTLY -SHRA TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN VALLEY WITH SPOTTY
SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH. CIGS CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE AS THEY BOB
BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN VFR/MVFR INITIALLY...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO
FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT DROPPING CIGS INTO MVFR/IFR TERRITORY.
AREAS OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED BUT NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW VFR AT
THE TAF SITES ATTM. A SFC TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AND
SWITCH WINDS TO THE SW...THEN NW NEAR END OF TAF PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPKINS
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPKINS






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