Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 182355

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
655 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Stratus/low clouds have been slow to exit today, holding
temperatures down with most readings in the 70s across south
central Nebraska, with a few 80s in north central Kansas.

The pattern aloft depicted subtle southwest flow ahead of an upper
trough moving into British Columbia, while at the surface, a low
pressure trough was deepening along the front range of the
Rockies into the high plains region.

As we head into the evening, lingering low clouds will lift out
with steady southerly low level flow forecast through the
overnight hours. Models indicate the potential for isolated
convection overnight on the nose of the lowlevel jet which will be
oriented to our southeast, so have kept the dry forecast going
for our area with the better chances for this remaining to our
east/south. Have some concern for the development of fog given the
wet ground and high dewpoints, and light southeast wind
component. SREF probs and NAM visibilities both suggest the
northern half of our cwa may be more susceptible for fog and have
included patchy fog in the forecast.

Tuesday will be warm and windy in a tight pressure gradient/deep
mixing. The upper low in the Pacific Northwest translates into
Alberta with the upper trough digging into the northern and central
Rockies. The associated surface trough pushes east of the high
plains into western Nebraska and Kansas in the afternoon. Dewpoints
mix out, along and west of the boundary to the 30s/40s, with low
relative humidity values forecast below 20 percent for Furnas,
Phillips and Rooks Counties. The combination of low relative
humidity values, south wind gusts over 30 mph and favorable fuel
status across north central Kansas and southwest portions of south
central Nebraska have prompted a Fire Weather Watch for Tuesday
afternoon. Outside the Fire Weather Watch area, near critical fire
weather conditions are expected for locations west of a line from
Lexington, Nebraska to Smith Center, Kansas. Temperatures will be
noticeably warmer, reaching the upper 80s to mid 90s for highs.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

After a brief cooling behind a cold front Wednesday, warm weather
will settle in for the remainder of the workweek, followed by a cool
and wet weekend.

A cold front pushes southeast Tuesday night as the lead upper low
tracks across Canada and this boundary looks to move through dry.
High pressure builds south behind the front Wednesday and
temperatures will drop back to near 80F for highs in the slightly
cooler air. The surface ridge axis departs to the east Wednesday
night with return flow of southerly winds and warmer air returning
to the plains, ahead of an upper trough digging along the west
coast. The pattern will become highly amplified by the end of the
workweek with the plains in southerly flow aloft in between the
intermountain/western trough and an upper ridge from the gulf to
the Ohio Valley/Great lakes region. Thursday and Friday are
looking warm and windy with highs well above normal in the upper
80s/low 90s (normal highs average in the upper 70s this time of
year), with winds steady/gusty from the south.

Chances for rain ramp up over the weekend as the upper trough axis
edges farther east into the Rockies with the associated frontal
boundary aligning across the plains over the weekend and the
boundary will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms for
several days. Rainfall with this system looks to be fairly
widespread and amounts may potentially top one and two inches by
the end of the weekend. The frontal boundary is forecast to slowly
move southeast Sunday night into Monday, with rain chances
beginning to taper off in our northwest zones, but continue in the
southeast. Look for temperatures to trend cooler over the weekend
and into next week, dropping below normal by Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Wednesday)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Main impacts to aviation through this forecast period will be the
potential for fog Tuesday morning and breezy south winds Tuesday

Light southeasterly winds will be favorable for a radiation fog
to develop during the early morning hours. HRRR and RAP are coming
into line with the SREF for the most dense fog to be north and
east of the terminals. That said, I maintained a TEMPO group of
IFR visibility for KGRI because I am concerned that recent
rainfall may enhance the fog a bit into central Nebraska.
Nevertheless, fog potential will decrease as you move farther
westward, so I just 4SM visibility at EAR.

Whatever fog does develop will dissipate quickly as a stiff south
to southeasterly wind develops by late morning. Wind gusts during
the afternoon will likely range from 22 to 28kts.


NE...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for NEZ082.

KS...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for KSZ005-017.



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