Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 171753

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1153 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Issued at 1153 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Vis satellite and sfc obs show the back edge of the stratus is N
of Hwy 6 and E of Hwy 281. It was moving E and increasing sun will
cont. There is still substantial (BKN) altocu and cirrostratus N
of Hwy 6. So the rest of the afternoon will be p/sunny in those
areas...then virtually sunny S of Hwy 6.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

The forecast is fairly active weatherwise through tonight. Early
this morning we see low stratus clouds lifting north through central
and eastern Kansas and Nebraska, in steady, moist southerly low
level flow ahead of an approaching trough. So far the steady and
gusty south winds have kept visibilities up, but as wind speeds
decrease toward daybreak as the surface boundary approaches,
lower visibilities in fog may materialize. The low cloud cover is
expected to remain across our eastern zones through mid to late
morning, before scouring out from west to east as the surface
boundary crosses our region.

Temperatures will be dependent upon how quickly clouds erode and
have lowered highs a few degrees in our east where clouds will
hold on longer and also lowered highs slightly in our northern
zones in the cooler post frontal airmass. While most of south
central Nebraska will see highs in the 50s/60s today, temperatures
will be warmest across north central Kansas where highs in the
70s still look reasonable.

Heading into tonight, good chances for precipitation exist in
increasing lift as a shortwave trough and stronger cold frontal
boundary cross the Central Plains. Rain chances increase during the
evening in our western zones, spreading east during the night, with
the timing of the main precipitation falling generally between
03Z and 10Z Saturday. The temperature profile initially is
warm/above freezing for the precipitation to fall as rain, then a
mix to rain/snow or a brief change over to snow is possible for
portions of our northern and central zones as cold air moves in
behind a stronger cold front. Overnight low temperatures are
forecast to remain in the 30s and ground temperatures are warm
which will limit snow accumulations. While decent chances for rain
and several hundredths to a couple of tenths of liquid
precipitation/rain is possible, confidence on accumulating
snowfall is lower given the rain/snow mix and warm ground. Have
went with some light snowfall amounts of generally one half inch
or less for locations north of Interstate 80 overnight. There is
some concern that a frontogenetic snow band could develop which
could lead to locally higher snowfall totals and will need to
monitor trends and thermal profiles.

Tonight`s cold frontal passage will be noticeable with pressure
rises behind the front averaging 6-8mb and winds will be
steady/gusty from the north overnight and will remain strong
through Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 240 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Saturday dries out pretty quickly in the early morning as the cold
front pushes well to the south and the mid level trough axis exits
to the east. The gusty north winds will linger through the day in a
tight pressure gradient with gusts over 30 mph expected. Have some
concerns for near critical fire weather conditions in north central
Kansas due to the gusty winds and drier airmass, however the latest
forecast is not quite as low on the afternoon relative humidity
values, with minimum RH`s closer to 30 percent.

The airmass moderates on Sunday as upper ridging expands east of the
Rockies. Temperatures are expected to recover nicely in the warmer,
dry air with highs forecast in the 50s Sunday afternoon. Will
again need to monitor Sunday for critical or near critical fire
weather conditions for our southern zones Sunday as both low
relative humidity values and winds are looking borderline for fire
weather conditions at this time.

Looking ahead into next week, the forecast is still looking dry
through the Thanksgiving Holiday. Monday features a continuation
of the warm temperatures, followed by a brief cooling Tuesday with
a cold frontal passage, then upper ridging and warm air expands
east onto the plains thereafter with a warming trend heading into
Thanksgiving. At this time, Thanksgiving is still shaping up to
be dry and mild with highs in the 50s and 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Saturday)
Issued at 1153 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Significant Wx: A period of IFR VSBYs likely in RA/SN tonight.

This Afternoon: GRI remains MVFR but this stratocu will exit E
shortly resulting in VFR for the rest of the afternoon with no
clds at or below 10K ft. EAR has been VFR since 16Z. N winds 10-15
kts. Confidence: High

Tonight: VFR to start with increasing/descending clds. CIGs should
lower to MVFR as a period of RA/SN moves thru with VSBYs possibly
as low as 2SM for 1-3 hrs. There is considerable uncertainty on
where the narrow bands of RA form and move...and temps will be
right on the threshold for SN. It is likely SN will be brief and
it may not even occur at all. N winds increase to 20-30 kts.
Confidence: Low

Sat thru 18Z: MVFR CIGs will probably linger until mid-morning
then becoming VFR/clearing. A few CU should form especially after
18Z. N winds 22-35 kts. Confidence: Medium




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