Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 102331
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
531 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

AFTER A SEASONABLY NICE AFTERNOON...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RAPIDLY FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING THIS EVENING AS THE SUN GOES
DOWN...WITH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ROLL BACK IN ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS STRATUS...AND OPTED TO INTRODUCE THIS
INTO THE FORECAST AFTER ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WHILE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THE MORE DENSE FOG IS WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...THE
LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR IS INDICATING THIS MORE DENSE AREA OF FOG
COULD AT LEAST CREEP IN ON OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...AND THIS WILL BE SOMETHING FOR THE EVENING SHIFT TO
MONITOR AS NEW MODEL DATA COMES IN.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT LITTLE SHIFT IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MAKING ITS WAY OVER THE TOP
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AND THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST
TO INCH BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...BRINGING SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL STRATUS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS THE REGION
TOMORROW...WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKING AT THE OVERALL PICTURE...UPPER LEVEL NWRLY
FLOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE HUDSON BAY AREA KEEPS THE ERN CONUS UNDER BROAD
TROUGHING...WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS NORTH THROUGH THE
ROCKIES. AT THIS POINT...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THURS NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK JUST OFF TO THE N/NE OF
THE CWA. THE MAIN STORY THROUGH FRIDAY LIES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT...BEING PUSHED SOUTH BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH
TO THE N/NE. WHILE THE SFC PATTERN STARTS THE PERIOD OUT FAIRLY
RELAXED...THIS FRONT WITH USHER IN NRLY WINDS BY SUNRISE
FRIDAY...GRADUALLY TURNING MORE NERLY THROUGH THE DAY. COLDER AIR
STARTS TO ADVECT INTO THE CWA...AND DID LOWER FORECAST HIGHS FOR
FRIDAY...WITH NEAR 30 NOW IN THE NORTHEAST TO NEAR 40 IN THE SW.

CONFIDENCE IN THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY REGARDING PRECIP
CHANCES/LACK OF...IS NOT HIGH. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL REMAIN LOOKS TO
REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY...BUT THERE IS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR THE CWA TO
BE AFFECTED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN FLOW. LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING IS THE FIRST SHOT OF THIS ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH...WITH MODELS ALSO SHOWING THE CWA SITTING ON THE ERN
EDGE OF A 25-30KT LLJ SITTING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS HINTING
AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFFECTING MAINLY WRN
AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DIFFERING SOME
WITH THE OVERALL THICKNESS OF THE SATURATED LAYER...LEAVING THE
QUESTION WHETHER THERE WOULD BE ANYTHING MEASURABLE...OR IF IT WOULD BE MORE
FZDZ OR FLURRIES. HAVE A 20 POP/SNOW GOING AS WELL AS A SLGT CHANCE
FOR FZDZ. ONLY KEPT THE MENTION GOING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...THOUGH IF YOU BELIEVE THE NAM QPF FIELDS THERE WOULD BE
SOMETHING AROUND ALL DAY SATURDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
GO...SATURDAY STILL FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOCATED OVER NERN IA...WITH ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA NOT TOO FAR AWAY
FROM DOUBLE DIGIT BELOW ZERO TEMPS AT 850MB. EVEN WITH THE BRUNT OF
THE COLDEST AIR OFF TO OUR EAST...FORECAST HIGHS CURRENTLY RANGE
FROM NEAR 20 IN THE NORTHEAST TO LOWER 30S IN THE SW. LOOKING TO
SUNDAY...THE FORECAST IS DRY...BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH. MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 /PERHAPS 2/ WEAK WAVES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...JUST SOME DIFFERENCES
IN LOCATION. WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND BEFORE INSERTING POPS.
EXPECTING TO SEE REBOUNDING TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AS THAT COLDER AIR
PUSHES EAST AND WARMER TEMPS START TO BUILD IN...WITH 40S CURRENTLY
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE CWA.

THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...THE FORECAST REMAINS
DRY...WITH MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TAKING OVER THE WRN CONUS AND GRADUALLY BUILDING EAST. NICE
WARM UP CURRENTLY GOING IN THE FORECAST...WITH 50S FORECAST FOR
TUE/WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

CIGS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS UPSTREAM
STRATUS IN THE DAKOTAS MIGRATES SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION
OF SNOW MELT TODAY...WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARD
DAYBREAK AND EDGE OF STRATUS COULD PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY AS POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DENSE FOG. LOOKS LIKE STRATUS MAY
HOLD FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...FAY


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