Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 282114
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
414 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE REGION SITTING IN BETWEEN
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE...ONE OVER THE MN/IA BORDER...THE OTHER OVER
THE DESERT SW. BEEN A CRUMMY DAY ACROSS THE CWA...DRIZZLE AFFECTED
NRN PORTIONS THIS MORNING...AND RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWING A NARROW
BAND OF LGT RAIN/SPRINKLES SLIDING N/NE THROUGH SRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. IN BETWEEN THAT...BEEN MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST AND COOL. AVERAGE
HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID 60S/NEAR 70...AND HERE WE
ARE AT 3 PM WITH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS MOST OF SC NEB
AND LOWER/MID 50S OVER NC KS. WINDS THIS MORNING WERE ON THE BREEZY
SIDE GUSTING NEAR 25 MPH AT TIMES...BUT HAVE TAPERED OFF CLOSER TO
10 TO 15 MPH AS HIGHER SFC PRESSURE HAS BUILT IN FROM THE NW.

THIS BAND OF -RA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH N/NE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND BEYOND THAT FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM TURNS
TO THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SWRN CONUS
SLIDING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TONIGHT...BEFORE TAKING A
MORE NORTHEASTWARD TURN AND ENDING UP ROUGHLY OVER CENTRAL CO BY THE
END OF THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW...WITH INCREASING LARGER SCALE
LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

ONCE THIS CURRENT BAND OF -RA MOVES THROUGH...MUCH OF THE CWA LOOKS
TO BE DRY WELL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AND FOR N/NERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...THEY MAY BE DRY ALL NIGHT. MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
WAS TO ADJUST TIMING OF THE POPS AND TIGHTEN UP THE N/S GRADIENT.
THE BEST CHANCES STILL EXPECTED TO COME DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
TOMORROW AND BE ACROSS S/SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NORTHWARD AND ESP EASTWARD EXTENT OF
PRECIP...AS SOME MODELS QPF FIELDS DONT SHOW A WHOLE LOT IN THOSE
AREAS. KEPT ANY THUNDER MENTION AS ISOLATED AND MAINLY CONFINED TO
SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...INSTABILITY IS PRETTY SAD.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S IN
THE NW TO LOWER 40S IN THE SE...WITH HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW ONCE AGAIN
WELL BELOW AVERAGE...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 40S NW/MID 50S SE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

OVERVIEW OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD:
IN THE SIMPLEST SENSE...WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VERY RAINY
STRETCH FOR A FEW DAYS (ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY
NIGHT)...FOLLOWED BY WHAT FOR MOST FOLKS WILL BE A WELCOME DRIER
AND WARMER STRETCH ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY-THURSDAY. THIS STILL
LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY DECENT "RAIN EVENT" CENTERED ON FRIDAY
NIGHT-SATURDAY...WITH MOST OF THE CWA EXPECTED TO TOTAL SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN 1.50-3.00". OBVIOUSLY FOR THOSE WHO MISSED OUT ON DECENT
AMOUNTS BACK ON TUESDAY THIS MIGHT ACTUALLY BE GOOD NEWS...BUT WE
SUSPECT THAT FOR MOST FOLKS THIS WILL NOT BE A VERY WELCOMED
RAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE SEPARATE CORRIDORS WITHIN BOTH THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CWA THAT RECEIVED 2-3+" EARLIER THIS
WEEK. PLEASE SEE THE SEPARATE "HYDROLOGY" SECTION BELOW FOR
FURTHER COMMENTS REGARDING POSSIBLE FLOODING CONCERNS.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...A SEASONABLY-COOL STRETCH WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 40S/50S WILL PERSIST INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY-SUNDAY BEFORE A
GRADUAL WARM UP COMMENCES WITH HIGHS BY NEXT WED-THURS PROGGED TO
BE BACK INTO THE 70S. AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...MAINLY 40S ON MOST
NIGHTS...BUT ESPECIALLY SOME OF OUR FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES
WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE UPPER IF NOT MID-30S MOST EVERY NIGHT
BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SUB-FREEZING TEMPS
ARE NOT CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NIGHTS
SUCH AS SUNDAY NIGHT AND/OR MONDAY NIGHT COULD EVENTUALLY YIELD
SOME PATCHY FROST CONCERNS...AGAIN MAINLY IN NORTHERN/WESTERN
COUNTIES. ON A RELATED NOTE...WE WILL START ISSUING SPRING
ADVISORIES/FREEZE WARNINGS AS NEEDED NEXT WEEK NOW THAT THE
CALENDAR IS FLIPPING TO MAY.

ITEMS THAT ARE CURRENTLY INCLUDED OR MAY EVENTUALLY NEED
INCLUDED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO):
FOR NOW...ONLY NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT-
SATURDAY AND THE AFOREMENTIONED POSSIBLE FLOODING CONCERNS ARE
INCLUDED IN THE HWO PRODUCT. FOR NOW...THE ONLY OTHER FORESEEABLE
ITEM THAT MAY NEED ADDED OVER THE COMING DAYS IS THE
AFOREMENTIONED POSSIBILITY OF OVERNIGHT FROST...BUT FORECASTED
LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO TREND DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES FOR
THIS TO BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN.

SOMETHING TO WATCH THAT COULD THROW A FORECAST "SURPRISE":
ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS MAINTAINED RAIN AS THE SOLE
PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...A
FEW OF THE LATEST RUNS OF MAINLY THE ECMWF MODEL ARE BECOMING MORE
INSISTENT THAT MAINLY OUR FAR WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST COUNTIES SUCH
AS DAWSON/SHERMAN/VALLEY COULD COME PERILOUSLY CLOSE TO SEEING A
LITTLE WET/SLUSHY SNOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IN FACT...THE
LATEST NATIONAL SNOWFALL GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER (WPC) ALONG WITH THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM
NEIGHBORING WFO LBF NOW INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST 1" OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION WITHIN NO MORE THAN 25-50 MILES OF THE DAWSON
COUNTY AREA. AT LEAST FOR NOW...THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A BIT OF AN
OUTLIER WITH THIS POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AFFECTING OUR
WESTERN CWA THIS WEEKEND...WITH CONSIDERABLY LESS SUPPORT FROM THE
NAM/GFS AND SREF-BASED PRECIPITATION TYPE PROGS. AS A
RESULT...IT`S ALL RAIN IN OUR FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT THESE TRENDS
WILL NEED WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO MAKE SURE THE
ECMWF ISN`T ACTUALLY ONTO SOMETHING IN BRINGING GREATER SNOW INTO
OUR WESTERN CWA.

WITH THE MAIN POINTS COVERED...WILL FINISH WITH SOME VERY BRIEF
COMMENTS ON THE DAY-TO-DAY TRENDS:

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY DAYTIME: THIS FEATURES THE MAJORITY OF 1-3"
RAIN POTENTIAL MENTIONED BOTH ABOVE AND ALSO BELOW IN THE
"HYDROLOGY" SECTION AS THE NEXT NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER TROUGH
SWINGS INTO THE HEART OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PLENTY OF FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION AND PRECIP CHANCES (POPS) AS HIGH AS 90 PERCENT WERE
MAINTAINED...BUT INSTABILITY IS REALLY LACKING AND KEPT THUNDER
WORDING AS ISOLATED AND EVEN THEN NOT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. LOWERED
HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 2-3 DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: ALTHOUGH THE MAIN "RAIN EVENT" WILL BE OVER
WITH BY THIS TIME...THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL STILL BE LINGERING OVER
THE AREA AND GRADUALLY DEPARTING...KEEPING AT LEAST LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES ALIVE AND WELL.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: THERE ARE HINTS OF ANOTHER...WEAKER UPPER
SYSTEM BRUSHING INTO THE AREA. AS A RESULT...FAIRLY SMALL RAIN
CHANCES FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.

MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THESE LAST FEW
DAYS OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF HINTS AT
MAYBE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN AROUND THE TUESDAY
TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS TIME AS
A WARM-UP COMMENCES. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...MODELS NATURALLY
DIVERGE IN THE DETAILS BY THIS TIME...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS
THAT A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL SET UP WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS BETWEEN FLANKING TROUGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AM ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE OF THINGS THIS AFTERNOON...KEPT MVFR
CEILINGS IN AT BOTH SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS NOT HIGH.
VFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...BEFORE DROPPING BACK DOWN OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AS FAR AS PRECIP GOES...DEBATED INSERTING
A VCSH MENTION THIS AFTERNOON AS A NARROW BAND OF PRECIP MAY
DEVELOP/SLIDE NORTH...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DO SO.
BETTER CHANCES WILL BUILD NORTH EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...EVENTUALLY SPREADING OVER BOTH TERMINAL AREAS BY
MID/LATE MORNING. CURRENT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO THE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH OUT THE
PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 413 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

IN THE VERY SHORT TERM:
FORTUNATELY...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE NOTHING MORE THAN
NON-MEASURABLE SPRINKLES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12+
HOURS...ALLOWING A CONTINUATION OF A BRIEF DRYING-OUT PERIOD
BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS. HOWEVER...AT LEAST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...A VERY LOCALIZED AREAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL BUFFALO COUNTY DUE TO LINGERING ISSUES FROM
TUESDAY`S RAIN EVENT.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY:
DURING THE 48-HOUR PERIOD OF FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING
A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT OF GENERALLY 1.50-3.00" ACROSS THE
CWA...THE MAJORITY OF WHICH WILL FALL FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SITE-SPECIFIC RAIN TOTALS IS ALMOST ALWAYS
A BIT SHAKY...THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS THAT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
OF 2.50"+ WILL FOCUS WITHIN NEBRASKA COUNTIES WEST OF HIGHWAY 281.
FORTUNATELY...SHORT-TERM RAINFALL RATES (ESPECIALLY ON A 1-3 HOUR
DURATION) ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY AS HIGH AS WITH TUESDAY`S
CONVECTIVE EVENT...IN LARGE PART DUE TO RATHER WEAK CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...FOR PARTS OF THE CWA (ESPECIALLY THOSE
WHICH RECEIVED 2+" TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT)...THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN
EVEN OVER A 12-24 HOUR PERIOD COULD BE ENOUGH TO INSTIGATE AT
LEAST BRIEF FLOODING ISSUES. WE CONTINUE TO MULL OVER THE
POSSIBILITY OF A MULTI-COUNTY FLOOD WATCH FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME THE SETUP STILL APPEARS TO BE
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR A FORMAL WATCH GIVEN THAT WIDESPREAD (KEY
WORD "WIDESPREAD") FLOODING ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. OF
COURSE...THIS DECISION COULD BE SWAYED THE OTHER WAY IN LATER
FORECASTS. IN CLOSING: NO FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO EMPHASIZE THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST LOCALIZED ISSUES IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ADP
HYDROLOGY...PFANNKUCH



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