Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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510
FXUS63 KGID 301714
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1214 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

OVERVIEW...IT WAS A RAINY NIGHT AS WAS EXPECTED WITH WIDESPREAD
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL OF AROUND 1 INCH OR MORE ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR GENEROUS
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST ALONG THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS
BORDER AREA TODAY. IT WILL BE A VERY COOL...CLOUDY...AND AT TIMES
RAINY DAY.

RAIN...THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH
THIS MORNING AND LIKELY EXIT OUR FORECAST AREA TO THE NORTH BY
AROUND 10 AM. LOW CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS OF UNDER 1000 FT AGL ARE
LIKELY ALL DAY THANKS TO THAT UPPER LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE LOW TODAY...BUT
WILL NOT BE AS PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD AS WHAT WE HAD OVERNIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE AT CATCHING SOME OF THESE ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE ACROSS NEBRASKA ZONES AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80.
FURTHER SOUTH OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...THE MOISTURE PROFILE IS
LOWER AND A LIGHT DRIZZLE MAY BE MORE LIKELY AT TIMES WITH ONLY
VERY MINOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH THE DAY. THE UPPER LOW
WILL ENTER SOUTHWEST IOWA LATE TONIGHT AND EXPECT WE COULD
CONTINUE TO HAVE WRAP AROUND RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH THE
NIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN ZONES.

COLD...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
AND RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES
TO THE LOWER 50S OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

SNOW...ALRIGHT DO NOT WORRY THE SNOW SHOULD STAY JUST WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE CLOSE AND CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN ACROSS WESTERN
DAWSON COUNTY. THE SFC AND NEAR SFC LAYER IS JUST A LITTLE TOO
WARM FOR SNOW WITH OUR COOLEST SPOT (WESTERN DAWSON COUNTY) LIKELY
ONLY SEEING TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE MID 30S AT THE COOLEST
POINT. THAT SHOULD KEEP THIS GENERALLY A RAIN EVENT EVEN ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

BIG STORY: UNSETTLED WX THRU TUE BUT WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT. THEN
A NICE WARM-UP MID-LATE WEEK.

ALOFT: A VERY COMPLEX FLOW SUN...WITH UPR LOWS EXITING THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND OVER THE DESERT SW AND A CLOSED HIGH DEVELOPING OVER SW
CANADA...WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SIMPLE AND STRAIGHT-FWD NEXT WEEK. A
RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES WITH TROFS OVER THE E PAC AND
ERN USA. SOME PROGRESSION WILL BEGIN THU WITH THE RIDGE MOVING OVER
THE PLAINS FRI.

THE UPR LOW OVER THE DESERT SW WILL WEAKEN WITH A PIECE OF IT
EJECTING ACROSS KS/OK SUN NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
RAIN TO N-CNTRL KS.

BEFORE THE LONGWAVES SIMPLIFY...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FLOW EVOLUTION MON-TUE. IN PARTICULAR...WHAT HAPPENS TO THE TROF
OVER THE CAN PRAIRIES SUN? THE EC CONTS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON CLOSING
IT OFF AND ROTATING IT ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND THE SE QUADRANT OF
THE CLOSED HIGH OVER ALBERTA...FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO WY/CO. THE
00Z RUN REMAINS CLOSED BUT INSTEAD DROPS IT DUE S INTO NEB/KS MON
NIGHT INTO TUE. THE GFS/GEM RUNS NEVER CLOSE IT OFF AND TAKE THE
TROF INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WPC IS SHYING AWAY FROM THE STRONGER EC
SOLUTION. REGARDLESS...A BROAD TROF WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU TUE.
THEN NW FLOW WED-THU.

SURFACE: WEAKENING LOW PRES WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE E AT 12Z/SUN
WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRES DROPPING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS HIGH WILL
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE NRN USA MON BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS TUE-WED. MEANWHILE...A POTENT CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE
INTO THE ERN USA. ITS WRN FRINGE SHOULD REMAIN E OF THE FCST AREA.
HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT E OF THE REGION THU-FRI. LEE
CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES SAT.

SOME DAILY DETAILS...

SUN: THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL BE OVER SE NEB AT
DAWN AND EXITING E AS IT WEAKENS. PLENTY OF STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN IN
ITS WAKE. ANY BREAKS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD FILL BACK IN WITH STRATOCU
WITH CHILLY AIR ALOFT.

THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STEADY DEFORMATION RAIN WILL BE EXITING S-
CNTRL NEB AT DAWN...BUT PERIODIC DRZL COULD LINGER BEHIND ESPECIALLY
BEFORE NOON.

ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S (MORE THAN 10F BELOW NORMAL).

SUN NIGHT INTO MON: A LITTLE -RA COULD SNEAK INTO N-CNTRL KS. IF IT
DOES...AMTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THE PROBABILITY IS LOW FOR NOW.

FOG: AM NOT QUITE AS CONFIDENT AS 24 HRS AGO SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING. MULTI-MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUD
COVER COULD REMAIN. IF CLEARING DOESN`T OCCUR...RADIATING PAST THE
CROSS-OVER TEMP IS OFF THE TABLE WITH NO FOG. CLOUD TRENDS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED. ANY CLEARING IN LIGHT WINDS AND FOG COULD BE A
PROBLEM FOR THE MON AM COMMUTE.

MON SHOULD BE A NICE IMPROVEMENT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS.

TUE: STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN WITH THE EC. DRY FOR NOW...BUT IF THE
EC IS RIGHT SOME AFTERNOON SHWRS COULD BE IN THE OFFING.

WED-FRI: DRY WITH A VERY NICE WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST. LOW CLOUDS ARE
DOMINATING THE FORECAST...BUT AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES
NORTH...CEILINGS ARE RISING FROM IFR TO MVFR. EXPECT THIS TO
PERSIST FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY UNTIL PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO
DEVELOP AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD. EXPECT CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO SOME RESPECT TO DECREASE TO IFR OVERNIGHT. OFF AND
ON RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE.
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND CEILINGS SHOULD RISE
TO MVFR AGAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...BILLINGS WRIGHT



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