Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 061127
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
627 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWING THE CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...AS HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING HAVE
BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE ROCKIES AND SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
IS WORKING ITS WAY EAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO MN. AT THE
SFC...THE PATTERN IS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...THERE IS A TROUGH AXIS OVER WRN NEB...WITH A COOL FRONT
FURTHER N/NW. THIS WEAK PATTERN IS RESULTING IN LITTLE WIND ACROSS
ESP NEB...AND ACROSS THE NERN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
A TOUCH HIGHER...SEEING SOME OBS COME IN WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...SO WILL CARRY A MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING. COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF VISIBILITIES LESS THAN
1/2 MILE.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE MAIN FOCUS LIES
WITH THE HOT TEMPERATURES...THEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

LATEST RUN OF MODELS SHOWED NO NOTABLE CHANGES WITH THE BUMP UP IN
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THAT RIDGE TO OUR WEST
REMAINING THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER THERE A
COUPLE THINGS THAT CREATE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GET...ESP ACROSS SC NEB. ONE IS THAT SFC
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OFF TO THE N/NW...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SLIDING SOUTH TODAY...ENDING UP NEAR THE NEB/KS STATE LINE BY THIS
EVENING. THE OTHER IS THE DEWPOINTS THAT MAY BE REALIZED ACROSS
THE AREA...ESP ALONG THAT FRONT WHERE SOME POOLING OF MOISTURE MAY
OCCUR. THE HIGHER THE DEWPOINTS GET THE HARDER ITS GOING TO BE FOR
TEMPS TO CLIMB MUCH ABOVE THE LOWER/MID 90S...AND THE MID/UPPER
60S/NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO AFFECT LOCATIONS
ALONG I80...AND OUR ERN THIRD OR SO OF THE CWA. ACROSS OUR FURTHER
SWRN LOCATIONS...A BIT MORE MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN LOWER
DEWPOINTS...PERHAPS INTO THE UPPER 50S FOR SOME...AND TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO NEAR 100 DEGREES THERE. EITHER WAY...HEAT
INDEX VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 100 DEGREES
AND EXCEED THAT IN SOME LOCATIONS. CURRENT FORECAST VALUES REMAIN
BELOW HEAT INDEX HEADLINE CRITERIA...WHICH IS 105 DEGREES.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...THAT
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THOUGH ON THE WEAK SIDE...MAY PROVIDE
ENOUGH OF A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS A WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLIDES IN FROM THE NW. KEPT THE LOW POPS GOING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH TRIMMED BACK THE AREA...AS CAPPING MAY
VERY WELL KEEP THE PRE-00Z HOURS DRY. AS THAT DISTURBANCE MOVES
CLOSER THE CAP WEAKENS A TOUCH DURING THE EVENING...MAY SEE MORE
DEVELOPMENT. WHILE EXPECTING THERE TO BE GOOD INSTABILITY VALUES
OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE OVERALL FORCING AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ON THE WEAK SIDE...SO SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBILITY BUT CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MONDAY STILL
APPEARS TO BE OUR BEST SHOT AT RAINFALL OVER THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AS WELL AS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

THE PATTERN ALOFT STILL HAS RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
HALF WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DIGS IN FROM CANADA. THIS LOW WILL ALSO CREATE OUR BEST CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW MONDAY.
AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 1000 AND 3000 J/KG...AND
0-6 KM AGL BULK SHEAR VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 45 AND 55 KNOTS WILL
RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE WIND
MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...ANY EARLY CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON
WILL POSE A HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO THREAT. THESE STORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP INTO AN MCS BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH WIND BEING
THE PRIMARY THREAT GOING FORWARD. THIS WILL ALL BE BASED ON THE
TIMING OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND INITIAL CONVECTION.

BEYOND MONDAY...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL LOW CHANCE DAYS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT BEST SHOT AT
ANY RAINFALL OUTSIDE OF MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ANY OTHER DAY FOR RAINFALL. ESPECIALLY SEEING THE PATTERN
GOING FORWARD BY FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WHICH COULD ULTIMATELY LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID JULY.

MONDAY AND FRIDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. SOME LOCATIONS WILL FLIRT
WITH 100 DEGREES...MAINLY ACROSS OUR KANSAS COUNTIES. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH
HIGHS RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AS WE
CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

OUTSIDE OF SOME BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES FIRST THING THIS MORNING
AT GRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN THE FORECAST AT BOTH TERMINALS. ANY
CLOUD COVER PASSING THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS. LIGHT AND AT TIMES VARIABLE WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH TIME...AS A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST INTO THE AREA. SPEEDS DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS ONLY LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL MAKE A RETURN LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...GUERRERO
AVIATION...ADO


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