Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 120558
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1258 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances increase up to a 50% chance on Wednesday and
  continue through Thursday night. Thunderstorms will also be
  possible Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night.

- Cold fronts will push into the area on Wednesday and again on
  Saturday. High temperatures will range from the 40s to the 70s
  throughout the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 707 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

The Red Flag Warning was allowed to expire on time at 7PM CDT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

Today and tonight...

A surface trough has developed in the lee of the Rocky Mountains
ahead of an approaching upper trough. This surface trough extends
into Kansas and Nebraska and has resulted in gusty, southwest winds
across across most of the area due to a tightened surface pressure
gradient. These conditions have resulted in temperatures warming up
into the 70s this afternoon across south central and central
Nebraska and north central Kansas. Winds will weaken across far
western and northern portions of the forecast area this evening and
will gradually weaken across the rest of the area during the
overnight hours. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 30s and 40s
with the warmest temperatures across far eastern portions of the
forecast area.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...

A shortwave trough will move over Nebraska and Kansas on Tuesday
accompanied by a northerly wind shift. A surface trough will still
be present across the area so this wind shift will not have much
affect on temperatures. High temperatures on Tuesday will be a
degree or two cooler than the previous day. Winds on Tuesday are
expected to be lighter than the previous day. Low temperatures
Tuesday night will be in the 40s with mostly cloudy skies.

Wednesday through Thursday night...

An upper trough will begin moving over Nebraska and Kansas from the
west on Wednesday. A cold front is also expected to begin pushing
into the area on Wednesday. The increase in lift from the upper
trough and cold front will allow for a chance of rain and possibly
thunderstorms beginning on Wednesday. Rain chances will range from
around 15% to 50% during the day on Wednesday with chances
increasing to around 75% Wednesday evening and night. High
temperatures on Wednesday will generally range from the lower 60s to
mid 70s. Low temperatures Wednesday night will be in the 30s and
40s. The upper trough will extend from the upper Midwest to Arizona
on Thursday. A cold front, accompanied by gusty northerly winds,
will continuing pushing through south central and central Nebraska
and north central Kansas on Thursday. This will result in high
temperatures in the 40s and 50s on Thursday with rain chances (up to
70%) continuing. Low temperatures Thursday night are expected to be
in the 20s and 30s with rain chances coming to an end.

Friday through Sunday night...

A surface high will be present across the area on Friday with high
temperatures in the 50s and mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Low
temperatures Friday night will be in the 30s. Temperatures on
Saturday are expected to warm up into the 50s and 60s. A cold front
will push into the area during the day on Saturday as an upper
trough moves over the northern and central Plains and Midwest. Low
temperatures Saturday night are expected to mostly be in the 20s
with northerly winds continuing across the area. Temperatures on
Sunday will be cooler behind the front with highs in the 40s and 50s
and gusty, northerly winds. Temperatures in the low to mid 20s are
expected Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

- General overview for KGRI/KEAR:
This is a very high confidence period with regard to VFR
ceiling/visibility and precipitation-free weather, with only
varying degrees of passing high-level clouds mainly at-or-above
15K ft. Winds will also be a minimal issue, with sustained
speeds mainly at-or-below 10KT. That being said, a period of
modestly-strong low level wind shear (LLWS) will briefly linger
right away early this morning at KGRI.

- Wind details:
- Surface winds:
These first 6-8 hours early this morning and final 6 hours
Tuesday evening will feature the overall-lightest winds of the
period with sustained speeds mainly at-or-below 6KT and
direction overall-variable. In between, the middle portion of
the period (especially 14-23Z) will feature a slightly steadier
breeze ranging from north-northwesterly to north-northeasterly,
but with sustained speeds largely at-or-below 10KT/gusts mainly
under 15KT.

- Brief/lingering low level wind shear (LLWS) at KGRI:
Right out of the gate early this morning, will continue a formal
LLWS group at KGRI through 08Z. The far westerly edge of a
modestly-strong low level jet will continue to promote
southwesterly winds up to around 40KT in the 1-2K ft. AGL
layer...resulting in roughly 30KT of shear magnitude between the
surface and that level. Beyond 08Z, this low level jet axis
will depart far enough east to allow LLWS to weaken
considerably.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024

Low humidity values will again be present on Tuesday but will
not be as widespread as those today. Also, wind speeds will be
much lighter on Tuesday so fire weather is not expected to be as
high as a concern as today.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Thies
DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Pfannkuch
FIRE WEATHER...Schuldt/Thies


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