Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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069
FXUS63 KGID 251809
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
109 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 936 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

For the rest of today (through roughly 00z/7pm):
Confidence remains fairly high that the vast majority of the day
will remain rain/storm free across the vast majority of the CWA,
in the wake of the overnight convection that has moved off to the
east. Officially, only have only a slight chance of showers/storms
for the latter half of the afternoon only within roughly the
northwest 1/3 of the CWA, but this could easily hold off until
more-so early this evening as well. We have noted that SPC has
downgraded our severe risk to "Marginal" for this
afternoon/evening, and given the fairly weak forcing and lack of a
well-defined surface focus, this seems reasonable. However, as
evidenced several times already this spring, a Marginal risk does
not equal "No risk", and will still need to monitor for a few
severe storms to develop and/or move in from the west especially
during the 5-11 PM time frame.

Otherwise, the trickiest part of today may be cloud cover/temps,
as there is currently a sharp divide between sunny/mostly sunny to
the north and overcast to the south, currently roughly along a
Phillipsburg-Geneva line. There are hints that this enhanced cloud
cover in the south could remain pretty stubborn today or even
expand back north somewhat with time, but this isn`t overly clear
cut. Temp-wise, shaved a few degrees off highs in the southeast
CWA, but at least for now, still expect most areas to top out in
the low 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 427 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

The forecast over the next 24 hours is much easier forecast than the
last couple days as far as confidence goes. Mostly dry after the
ongoing convection clears out later this morning. Skies should clear
out somewhat to partly cloudy, and temperatures will get into the
lower to mid 80s for above normal high temperatures. Thunderstorms
are possible again later this afternoon.

Thunderstorms ongoing across the heart of the forecast area will
continue to push east this morning with marginally severe potential,
and possibly some minor flooding in areas receiving heavy rainfall.
HRRR simulated reflectivity has been doing a decent job handling
thunderstorms and their forecast last night and this morning. By
9am, we should be precipitation free across the outlook area. Later
this afternoon, there will be another chance for thunderstorms to
redevelop across western portions of the forecast area around 4/5 pm
along a cold front sagging south from a surface low over South
Dakota. Depending on the orientation and timing of the front, the
thunderstorms could be delayed a little or possible only hit
northern parts of the forecast area. Nevertheless, with most
unstable CAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg (GFS being a little
higher) and the front around, I see at least a chance for
thunderstorms to develop later if the timing of the upper level low-
amplitude shortwave is right. This pattern is difficult to discern
these low-amplitude shortwaves the last several days embedded in
this southwesterly flow aloft. Environmental shear will have the
potential to support severe storms capable of producing hail and
damaging winds as the primary threat. These threats will quickly
diminish in the evening as storms move eastward.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 512 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

The upper level longwave mean trough in the western United States
will persist through the long term as a stationary or nearly
stationary boundary hangs around or near our area. Thursday
afternoon and night, especially as a low-level jet develops in the
evening. Abundant moisture will continue to be available, so this
means several days of potentially inclement and severe weather,
along with near normal to a bit above normal temperatures. Highs
will generally be in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Confidence is generally average with regard to ceiling/visibility
through the period. Although VFR is currently advertised to
prevail, there are a few caveats to discuss:

Ceiling: Right away this afternoon, there is an outside chance
that at least a brief MVFR ceiling could develop as afternoon
stratocumulus develops. Beyond that, there is also an outside
chance of at least light fog/low stratus development late
tonight/Thursday morning, and this will need monitored.

Visibility: VFR should prevail the majority of the time, with the
main issue again whether or not any light fog forms late
tonight/early Thursday. Will "hint" at this potential by
advertising low-end VFR during this time.

Precipitation/thunderstorms: Odds are favored that both terminals
will remain void of thunderstorms. However, given an outside
chance of some activity moving in from the west this evening, will
introduce a generic "vicinity thunderstorm" (VCTS) mention from
02-06z tonight. Should any storms move in, a severe storm cannot
be ruled out.

Winds: Sustained speeds under 12kt are expected to prevail nearly
the entire time (unless thunderstorm influences become an issue).
In general, a south-southwest direction this afternoon will become
more variable tonight and easterly Thursday morning.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
SHORT TERM...Guerrero
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Pfannkuch



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