Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 210024
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
624 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 556 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Updated the forecast to include the mention of lower visibilities
in the forecast as well as to issue a dense fog advisory through
midnight tonight. So far...we have seen numerous sites at least flirt
with dense fog criteria for the past couple of hours...and with
the HRRR showing this fog not going anywhere for several more
hours...thought it would be sound to have an advisory out to at
least cover the evening hours. This fog should diminish in
coverage and intensity from west to east late in the night as the
low level flow begins to shift and become westerly...so may need
to fine tune the advisory later as some western areas clear
out...with eastern areas of the advisory possibly in need of an
extension for a couple of hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 326 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Visibility is extremely variable across the forecast area this
afternoon with some sites still below a mile while others are over
six miles. Clouds are consistent across the area.

The main concerns for the short term is the fog for tonight and
chances for some light precipitation.

An upper level wave is moving through the area this afternoon and
tonight with that will be a chance for mainly light precipitation.
In this case, the temperatures are warm enough this afternoon and
into the evening that it will be rain, but as the temperatures cool
during the overnight hours, there will be some rain/snow mix.
Precipitation will be ending during the overnight hours. The south
winds across the area continue to bring in moist air into the area
and as the temperatures cool during the evening there is a better
chance for some fog again. The fog will continue into Saturday
morning. At this point the winds from the west should keep the
visibility from getting as low as it has the past couple of nights,
but will have to see if it is strong enough to keep the visibility
from dropping. On Saturday the clouds will linger in the morning and
even some patchy fog, but by afternoon there will be some clearing.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 326 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

The biggest concern during this period continues to be the winter
weather potential early to mid week next week.

Saturday night through Monday will be fairly mild and quiet weather.
There is a surface high that moves through the area. Temperatures
will be in the 40s to lower 50s for highs and lows will be mostly in
the 20s.

The main interest will be during the Monday night to Wednesday
morning time frame. An upper level low moves into the plains states
Late Monday night and finally moving out of the area Wednesday.
Models continue to have different paths for the system. The GFS has
been further to the north than the ECMWF. With the further north
track, there would be little precipitation for the north central
Kansas portion of the forecast area. The ECMWF solution gives a
little more precipitation to areas south in the forecast area.
Continue to go with something in between and still have
precipitation across the entire area, but the best chances will be
in the northern part of the forecast area. The next concern will be
precipitation type. As the precipitation gets started Monday night,
the temperatures are cool enough that snow should be possible.
During the day, most of the snow should mix with or change to rain
for much of the forecast area. The far northwest may still have a
mix during the afternoon. Then, as temperatures cool off during the
evening the rain mixes with and changes to snow across the area.
With the different tracks of the low, the timing for moving
precipitation out of the area is also in question. Have kept some in
the north and east during the morning, but that should remain snow.

Wednesday afternoon through Friday should be another quiet period,
but temperatures will be a bit cooler than this weekend. There will
be northwest flow across the area and some in and out clouds. Highs
will only be in the 30s with lows in the teens.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 556 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Generally poor conditions will persist at the terminals through
much of the overnight hours...although there should be some minor
improvement late in the night as the low level flow shifts more
westerly and subsequently visibilities begin to improve. By
daybreak...expect CIGS to also begin to lift...with VFR
conditions likely at both sites by late morning.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until midnight CST tonight for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-061>064-074>077-085>087.

KS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Rossi
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...Rossi


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