Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 170924

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
424 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

This section will be updated by 5 AM...please check back. We
apologize for the later issuance this morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 423 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

A slight southwesterly component to the flow aloft will dominate
through Wednesday in advance of the next upper trough. Surface
high pressure will move overhead Tuesday with light winds and
highs near 70. The next upper trough will move through Wednesday.
A secondary surge of cooler air will arrive as this disturbance
moves through. Temperatures will be closer to climatic norms, with
highs in the low 60s Wednesday and Thursday. As this disturbance
moves through there is enough lift to develop a few showers. The
best chances look to be north of I-80 during the day Wednesday.

Friday - Sunday:
A couple different surface troughs followed by surface high
pressure will move through causing a wind shift, but little else.
With a lack of moisture and upper level ridging dominating, the
forecast is dry. Highs will be in the low 70s with overnight lows
in the upper 30s and 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 104 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

General overview:
While confidence is high that VFR ceiling/visibility will prevail
through at least the latter half of the period at KGRI and quite
possibly the entire time at KEAR, there is considerable
uncertainty especially with regard to these first 9-10 hours, as
especially KGRI could rapidly "tank" to VLIFR conditions in dense
fog, potentially for several hours. Confidence is high in dry
/rain-free conditions at both sites. See below for more element-
specific details...

As already mentioned, these first 9-10 hours will be rather
challenging, as there is a good chance that especially KGRI will
see initially MVFR visibility deteriorate to at least IFR and
possibly VLIFR in dense fog. Meanwhile, KEAR is JUST far enough
west that "in theory" it should narrowly avoid fog issues, but
this is no guarantee either. The bottom line is, that while
confidence was not high enough to go prevailing VLIFR at KGRI, it
was introduced as a TEMPO from 08z-12z and could very well extend
a bit later, while KEAR has been left as VFR but will "hint" at
light fog potential with a "6SM BR" mention. Once boundary layer
winds turn more westerly by mid-late morning, confidence is high
in VFR from then on.

Surface winds/possible low level wind shear (LLWS):
The majority of these first 12 hours will feature a
light/variable surface wind, thanks to the presence of a weak
trough axis working across the area. Then, by late morning/early
afternoon, a pronounced increase in westerly breezes will take
place behind a passing front, with sustained speeds increasing to
at least 15-20kt and gust potential 20-25kt. These westerly
breezes will then let up somewhat during the evening. As for LLWS,
some models suggest there could be a period of "TAF-worthy"
LLWS centered around 03z tonight but given this is so far out
toward the end of the period and with plenty to deal with before
then, will hold off on including this for now.


NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for NEZ039>041-

     Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for

KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for KSZ006-007.

     Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for



SHORT TERM...Pfannkuch
LONG TERM...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Pfannkuch is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.