Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 171804
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
104 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 608 AM CDT Wed Aug 17 2016

Patchy fog continues to develop this morning. Visibility will be
reduced for a while this morning, especially in low lying areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Aug 17 2016

Showers and thunderstorms to the northwest of the forecast areas
early this morning have been dissipating as they move into the
forecast area. Have kept a small PoP in the far north for a couple
of hours before day break just in case they hold together enough to
get into the area. Other than the cirrus from these thunderstorms
there is a little cirrus pushing into the southwest.

A weak upper level ridge will be found over the area today and into
tonight. There are a couple of models that try to bring some spotty
precipitation to the area mostly during the afternoon. The
temperatures are expected to reach the 90s and expect that the
models are trying to start some precipitation with the peak heating.
Most of the models keep the area dry and will continue with that.
For tonight, the ridge breaks down just a little but there is not
much of a wave that breaks it down. Have continued the dry
conditions for the night time hours as well.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Wed Aug 17 2016

Overview...Hot weather will continue into Thursday with highs
generally around 90 to the lower 90s. A noteworthy cold front will
track across the region on Friday bringing cooler weather and a
fairly good chance of thunderstorms, especially across our eastern
counties. Can not rule out a few isolated thunderstorms Saturday as
the main upper trough passes through, but most areas will likely see
several days of dry weather after our best chance of thunderstorms
Friday into Friday night. Highs will only be in the 70s this weekend
behind the cold front and then will slowly warm back into and
through the 80s early next week.

Thursday...There will be hot southerly flow out ahead of the
approaching storm system. Consequently, it will be another hot and
dry day. Can not rule out a late night storm rolling into our west
off of the high plains Thursday night. However, most areas should be
dry until the cold comes through on Friday.

Friday into Friday night...This is our forecast areas best chance at
getting widespread and appreciable moisture through the next 7 days.
However, thunderstorms are certainly not a guarantee especially if
we get an earlier in the day frontal passage as many of the forecast
models are hinting at. Timing of frontal passage will really be
everything. If the front passes more quickly as most forecast models
suggest then it will be our eastern zones that will once again be
favored for seeing heavier thunderstorms with appreciable rain. The
key time frame for thunderstorms will be 6pm - 11pm along the front.
Therefore, it`s possible our western zones may get missed or just
catch more isolated thunderstorms as they first begin to develop
during the afternoon, but then miss out on the heavier more
widespread evening precipitation. This will be one to watch with
some areas really needing the rain.

Severe threat: There will be decent instability for some storms to
possibly become severe despite marginal deep layer shear. Not
looking like a huge severe weather event, but a few severe
thunderstorm warnings may be needed late Friday afternoon and
evening.

Saturday...Will be cool with highs in the 70s as northerly flow
allows cooler air to continue to filter in behind the cold front.
Might see some isolated elevated showers or weak thunderstorms well
behind the front on Saturday as the 500mb upper trough tracks east
across the northern plains.

Sunday...Expect continued cool conditions and it should be dry
with subsidence behind departing upper trough.

Monday and Tuesday...The upper pattern appears more zonal with
nothing too cool or too warm...likely back into the lower to mid
80s. At this time precipitation chances appear to be nil to slight.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Wed Aug 17 2016

Low-level wind shear is the biggest concern overnight as a low-
level jet develops with an axis to to the west of the terminals.
This may be just close enough to throw KEAR into a situation where
we will need to mention this, while KGRI appears to be just far
enough away to not include low-level wind shear. There may also be
some reduced visibility, especially to the east of the terminals,
as evidenced by what happened this morning, but wind speeds from
the south should be stronger than wind this morning, so not
looking for too much reduction in visibility, especially as
compared to this morning. Some models indicate that there may be
some isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, but this
does not seem like a likely scenario.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JCB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...Heinlein



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