Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 010555
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1255 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE W THRU DAYBREAK. THERE IS A BAND OF
SHWRS/SPRINKLES AND AN EMBEDDED TSTM OR TWO FROM TIF-IML-GLD.
THERE IS A SLGT CHC SOME OF THIS COULD MOVE INTO THE WRN FRINGE OF
THE FCST AREA BEFORE DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

SMALL ISSUES TO DEAL WITH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. FIRST IS WHETHER
TO INCLUDE VERY SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. CAN I SAY FOR SURE IT WILL RAIN...NO. CAN I SAY FOR SURE
IT WON/T RAIN...NO. THAT WAS THE FINAL DECISION ESSENTIALLY. WEAK
H7 TROUGH AND MID LEVEL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL MIGRATE VERY
SLOWLY INTO AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HAVE INCLUDED 15-20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT IN
THE FAR NORTHWEST AND HANGING AROUND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. INSTABILITY IS WEAK BUT HAVE KEPT
THE ISOLATED STORM RISK WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES INCLUDING THAT.
SEEM LIKE ITS MORE SHOWERS. THIS IS A VERY LIGHT EVENT...PROBABLY
NO MORE THAN SPRINKLES MOST AREAS SO A 15-20 PERCENT RISK AT MOST
SEEMS REASONABLE.

OTHER THAN THAT...LOOK FOR INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ALL AREAS
TUESDAY. SOME AREAS ALREADY GUSTING OVER 20 MPH TODAY. FEW MORE
CLOUDS AROUND IN NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA MAY KNOCK A DEGREE OR TWO
OFF TEMPS...BUT PRETTY WARM OTHERWISE. ABOVE NORMAL.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIODS WILL FEATURE VARYING WEATHER FROM
WARM/WINDY TO SOME CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...TO MAYBE PATTERN
CHANGE FOR LABOR DAY.

THE PATTERN ALOFT AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
FEATURE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RIDGING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
HEADING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR TSTMS.
MODELS ARE NOT IN COMPLETE IN AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH THE NAM QUICKER WITH THE SYSTEM AND
SUGGESTS THE BETTER CHCS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR
AREA FASTER TUESDAY NIGHT THAN THE GFS. MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON THE
ORIENTATION OF THE LLVL JET WITH THE NOSE OF THE JET ORIENTED MORE
NORTHEAST PER NAM VS MORE NORTHERLY ON THE GFS. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL ATTM AND HAVE CARRIED POPS
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA INITIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CONVECTION
SHIFTING EAST TOWARD WEDNESDAY.

FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND THROUGH AROUND
THE SATURDAY TIME FRAME THE FORECAST TURNS WARM AND WINDY. THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF THE WESTERN TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS...
AVERAGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S CELSIUS. THE SFC GRADIENT WILL
BE TIGHT ACROSS OUR REGION AHEAD OF A WESTERN TROUGH ALONG THE
HIGH PLAINS REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE TIGHT SFC GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND DEEP MIXING PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL
RESULT IN SEVERAL DAYS OF BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL RISE
ABOVE NORMAL...AVERAGING IN THE 80S AND 90S WITH DAILY READINGS
DEPENDENT UPON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM
MID WEEK THROUGH SATURDAY ARE NOT EXACTLY ZERO IN THE WAA
REGIME...HOWEVER BETTER CHCS FAVOR LOCATION TO OUR WEST ALONG THE
SFC BOUNDARY.

ON SATURDAY THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD EDGE FARTHER EAST FROM
WESTERN NEBRASKA AND CHANCES FOR STORMS START TRENDING UP TO SOME
DEGREE...HOWEVER IF EARLIER MODEL TIMING HOLDS THE BEST CHCS FOR
STORMS FAVOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AS A COLD FRONT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH COULD
CROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WOULD BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT BY LABOR DAY WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING NEARLY 10C COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS BEING SAID...MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH
THE PATTERN BY DAY 7 AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON FRONTAL AND SYSTEM
TIMING AS 12Z ECMWF IS TRENDING MUCH SLOWER WITH SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUE NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

REST OF TONIGHT: VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS MOVING IN AT OR ABOVE 12K
FT. LIGHT S-SE WINDS. LLWS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE: VFR WITH MULTI-LAYERED SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN CLOUDS AT OR
ABOVE 12K FT. S WINDS INCREASE AND GUST 20-25 KTS AFTER 17Z. THERE
IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF SHWR/TSTM.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TUE EVE: VFR. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 12K FT. S WINDS DIMINISH
AND BECOME SE AROUND 10 KTS. LLWS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



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