Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 240002
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
702 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

STUBBORN LOWER CLOUDS STILL HANGING ON ACROSS NORTHWEST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SULTRY AIRMASS TODAY AS WELL...WITH DEWPOINTS
AROUND 70 SEVERAL LOCATIONS. MOST MODELS TRY TO PUMP IN SOME DRIER
AIR FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH THE HRRR MOST
AGGRESSIVE. THAT COULD PROVIDE A LITTLE HUMIDITY RELIEF TO SOME
SPOTS IN THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA. AS WE WORK INTO
TONIGHT...THE PROSPECT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MUCH MUCH LOWER...BUT
NOT NIL. A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AND THAT COULD SUSTAIN
HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION...BUT ALSO SPARK A FEW OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED...BUT CAN NOT
TOTALLY RULE IT OUT.

SUNDAY SHOULD START WITH LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM LEFTOVER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE PLAINS. THESE MAY HOLD
OVER INTO THE POST SUNRISE HOURS OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE
AND 20 PERCENT CHANCES REPRESENT RAIN RISK WELL.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY. MODELS SEEM A BIT AGGRESSIVE...BUT SOMETIMES THAT DOES
WORK OUT. EXPECT A SHIFTING WIND...AND THEN A DYING WIND AS THE
FORECAST IS LEFT TO FLOUNDER IN THE SURFACE SURFACE WITH THE FRONT
WEAKENING WITH TIME. THE WEAK NATURE OF THE FRONT AND SOME WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY KEEP ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OR ALONG THE FRONT VERY SPARSE AND TOWARD EVENING
AT THE EARLIEST. HAVE KEPT SIMILAR IDEA OF LOWER DEWPOINTS BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT HAVE SOME DOUBT PLACES LIKE GRAND ISLAND
AND HASTINGS COULD DROP TO A SUB-60 DEWPOINT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THAT WOULD BE NICE BUT WE WILL SEE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIODS AS THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WITH WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT.

EXPECT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY EVENING
TO LIFT NORTHEAST...WITH A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WHILE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE THE
TRIGGER FOR SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA EARLY IN THE EVENING...EXPECT THE
BETTER CHANCES TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A
TRAILING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS AND A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSES ITSELF ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

AS THIS FIRST UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS WELL INTO CANADA...EXPECT A
SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW TO SLIDE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY MONDAY...MAINTAINING SOUTHWESTERLY
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
DECREASE SOME DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...KEPT SOME SMALL POPS IN
THE FORECAST AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MEANDERING
ACROSS THE REGION. THAT SAID...THE BETTER SHOT FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT...AS YET ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TRAVERSES THE REGION IN
CONCERT WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AIMED ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH SEVERAL THOUSAND JOULES OF CAPE IN PLACE
AND MODEST SHEAR VALUES FORECAST...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ACTIVE NIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM THE STATE
LINE NORTH. DUE TO SOME DISCREPANCIES IN MODEL DATA...
HOWEVER...ONLY WENT AHEAD AND ADVERTISED LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL
FOR MONDAY NIGHT IN THE HWO.

OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE
FOCUSED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL JET DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WHILE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...AT THIS TIME THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A COOLER...DRIER...AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION TO END THE
WEEK.

HYDROLOGY WISE...DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL AND SATURATED SOILS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA...CONTINUED WITH THE MENTION OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING THE HWO IN THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET KICKS UP JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ONCE THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH...WIND SHEAR SHOULD NO LONGER BE AN ISSUE. THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONT
AS IT PASSES. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MORITZ
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



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