297
FXUS63 KGID 270023
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
723 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

...Aviation and Key Messages Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flooding from Wed night-Thurs AM thunderstorm activity
  continues to impact parts of south central Nebraska. While
  additional rainfall is not anticipated across this area
  tonight, it may take several days for some of the most
  impacted areas to completely improve. Please see the latest
  flood warning/advisory statements for additional information.

- At least patchy fog probable late tonight-early Fri AM, but
  lower confidence on it becoming widespread and/or dense.

- Despite a small chance of thunderstorms mainly northwest of
  the Tri Cities Friday night, most of the area will remain dry
  over the next 48 hours.

- After a hot and muggy Saturday (Heat Index values will likely
  top 100) with only light southerly breezes, thunderstorm
  chances return to the entire area Saturday night, and a few of
  these storms could be strong to marginally severe across our
  Nebraska counties.

- The best chance for thunderstorms over the period will come
  with a frontal passage Sunday afternoon/evening. After a hot
  weekend, this front should cool temperatures back close to
  climo next week (mid to upper 80s) with periodic small chances
  for thunderstorms each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

A few thunderstorms have developed east of the local area this
afternoon along the boundary that moved across central Nebraska
overnight. While thunderstorm development is possible on the
back edge of this boundary for the next few hours, models keep
the bulk of this activity well east of the local area, and no
additional rainfall is expected this afternoon or tonight across
the flood affected areas.

Clearing skies, falling temperatures and light southeasterly
winds are then anticipated overnight, which combined with
elevated dew points and saturated soils will likely lead to fog
development across much of the local area by daybreak Friday,
and upped the fog wording in the current forecast and HWO. While
a dense fog advisory may eventually be needed, the 18Z HRRR
keeps dense fog coverage limited to only pockets of the local
area, so held off on any sort of headline for the time being.
That said, the evening shift will continue to monitor trends in
observations and model data, and would not be surprised to wake
up to a foggy start across the area Friday morning.

As we transition into the afternoon hours Friday, the next upper
level disturbance should move into western Nebraska, sparking
some High Plains convection. While not a sure thing that this
convection will hold together by the time it reaches central
Nebraska, maintained some small pops for a few hours Friday
night for areas northwest of the Tri-cities, with most areas
expected to remain dry. A better upper level disturbance could
then bring additional thunderstorm activity to most of south
central Nebraska Saturday evening/night, with even a slight risk
for severe weather being advertised across Valley and Greeley
counties. The best chance for thunderstorms will then come
Sunday night as a frontal boundary again reaches the local area
and becomes the focus for thunderstorm activity Sunday
afternoon/evening.

Ahead of the front Sunday night, temperatures will be hot
tomorrow afternoon through Sunday afternoon, with the peak
intensity expected Saturday. While this heat will not be as
intense as the last heat wave, it may be more stifling, as
winds will be much lighter and dewpoints likely higher as well.
Thankfully, the front Sunday night should help "cool"
temperatures back closer to climo for the remainder of the
forecast period, with high temperatures mostly in the mid to
upper 80s much of next week. In addition to the cooler
temperatures, periodic mainly small chances for thunderstorms
can be expected each day in a fairly messy west to northwesterly
upper level pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 723 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview (including winds):
High confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility through at least the
vast majority of the period, and high confidence in
rain/thunderstorm-free conditions throughout. Really the only
catch/caveat to VFR will be the possibility of overnight-early
AM fog that could quickly "tank" visibility and/or ceiling IF it
develops.

Winds will not be a significant issue, with speeds overnight
into the first part of Friday AM mainly at/below 6KT as
direction transitions from northerly, to easterly, to
southeasterly. By the afternoon, some modest breeziness will
kick in out of the south-southeast with sustained speeds up to
around 12KT/gusts to around 18KT.

- Fog potential/uncertainty:
This is one of those cases where the overall setup would appear
to support at least "some" fog development mainly a few hours
either side of sunrise (clear skies, wet ground from recent
rain, light east-southeast breezes, high relative humidity), BUT
most models/guidance only lend minimal-at-best support for sub-
VFR conditions. Previous TAFs might very well have been onto
something by including TEMPO LIFR conditions. However, this
forecaster just isn`t comfortable going quite that pessimistic
8+ hours out, so have (at least for now) opted for a prevailing
MVFR visibility 08-14Z with "hints" of scattered LIFR clouds.
However, will fully acknowledge here that at least brief
IFR/LIFR conditions are possible IF fog proves efficient in
developing.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Pfannkuch