Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 251114
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
614 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THERE`S NOT MUCH TO SAY CONCERNING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE NEXT
24 HOURS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT BREEZES. BASIC SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS
FOCUSES AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW ACROSS ONTARIO WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. THE PLAINS
ARE IN NEARLY NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. MID LEVELS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ARE DRY...AS THE
MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE GULF REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS TEXAS. WARM AIR ADVECTION IS SEEN ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE BUT
IS NOT CENTRALIZED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS OF YET. AT THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE IS CONTINUING TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL VARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A
DIRECT RESULT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR UPPER 70S NORTHEAST OF THE TRI CITIES AND
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 IN PORTIONS OF ROOKS AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES.
ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE COULD BE LOWERED A DEGREE OR
TWO...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF TEMPERATURES GO THE OTHER WAY A
DEGREE OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL GIVE NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS AT 850MB ARE ONLY 25 KNOTS. EXPECT
THERE TO BE A SOUTH BREEZE...BUT NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG. THE SOUTH
WINDS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES A LITTLE.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE. THERE IS A VERY WEAK WAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM THAT MAY
BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
EXPECT THE BETTER CHANCE WILL BE ON THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WITH THE
UPPER WAVE DEEPENING AND DEVELOPING INTO A LOW IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...EXPECT THERE TO BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THERE COULD BE A FEW MAINLY IN THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH
THE MUCAPE IS FAIRLY STRONG...THE SURFACE BASED CAPE TO 3KM IS
AROUND 100 J/KG. THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES TO THE EAST AND EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER ON THURSDAY...BUT THE
COOLEST DAY WILL BE FRIDAY.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN THE WESTERN CONUS. EXPECT A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...SALTZMAN


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