Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 160542
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1142 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

OBVIOUSLY THE PARAMOUNT FOCUS ON THIS SHIFT HAS BEEN THE
ONGOING...ESSENTIALLY TWO-PART SNOW EVENT. ALTHOUGH VARIOUS TWEAKS
TO TIMING/SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN MADE TODAY...THE GENERAL
EXPECTATION OF WHAT WAS EXPECTED 12-24 HOURS AGO HAS LARGELY
WORKED OUT. NOT AS MUCH TIME TO GO INTO DETAIL AS USUAL...SO WILL
HIT MORE OF THE MAIN POINTS.

STARTING OFF WITH THE PRESENT AS OF 4PM/21Z...WE ARE WELL INTO
"ROUND 2" OF THIS SNOW EVENT...AS AT LEAST A FEW BANDS OF OF SNOW
CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST. AS
COVERED IN THE UPDATE DISCUSSION EARLIER TODAY...THE MAJORITY OF
STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ACTUALLY OCCURRED DURING THE FIRST ROUND
OF MORE ISENTROPIC-LIFT INDUCED SNOW THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THESE VARIOUS AFTERNOON BANDS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
LESS THAN 1 ADDITIONAL INCH IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY KS ZONES
WHERE EVEN A HALF INCH MAY BE HARD TO COME BY. AT THE
SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT HAS SLICED THROUGH ROUGHLY HALF OF THE
CWA ALREADY...WITH NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO SUSTAINED
SPEEDS GENERALLY 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
IT...ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER SPEEDS IN THIS RANGE ARE FAIRLY BRIEF AND
ONLY JUST BEHIND THE MAIN FRONTAL SURGE. TEMPS AT THIS TIME HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE TEENS FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST WHILE HOLDING ON IN THE
20S MOST AREAS AND NEAR-30 SOUTHEAST.

LOOKING AHEAD THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING...OPTED TO
KEEP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 9PM FOR SEVERAL NEB
COUNTIES ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 281...AS ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 1 INCH...THE COMBINATION OF
LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS WITH INCREASING WINDS COULD AT LEAST RESULT IN
MODEST TRAVEL ISSUES. WOULD BE NOT BE SURPRISED IF ONCOMING
EVENING SHIFT OPTED TO CANCEL AT LEAST PARTS OF THIS ADVISORY
EARLY ONCE THE STEADIER SNOW STARTS TAPERING DOWN. BY 9PM
THOUGH...ANY REMAINING ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED
TO MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST 1/4 OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY SOME FLURRIES
POSSIBLE POST-MIDNIGHT IN KS ZONES AS THE FORCING SINKS SOUTHWARD
WITH THE PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ZONE OF MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD HAVE TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE IN
THE 1.5 TO 3.5 INCH RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FAVORING NEB
COUNTIES EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 WHERE THE FIRST ROUND THIS MORNING
WAS MOST ROBUST.

OTHERWISE LATER TONIGHT...A VERY GRADUAL NORTH-TO-SOUTH CLEARING
SHOULD OCCUR...ALTHOUGH ESPECIALLY MID-HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO
MOVE OUT. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE VERY COLD...NUDGED UP LOW TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY SOUTH...AIMING FOR SINGE DIGITS IN MOST NEB
ZONES AND CLOSER TO 10 IN KS ZONES. COMBINED WITH STEADY NORTHWEST
BREEZES OF 10-15 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...OVERNIGHT WIND
CHILL READINGS SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE -5 -15 RANGE ACROSS THE
CWA...BUT REMAIN AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES AWAY FROM ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

BRIEFLY TURNING TO SUNDAY DAYTIME...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER BATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS
INVADES NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT. LEFT OUT ANY
PRECIP MENTION...AS ANY FLURRY POTENTIAL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD DESCRIBED BELOW. BREEZES SHOULD GENERALLY
AVERAGE 10-20 MPH AND HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON...TURNING MORE
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY. ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMING
ALOFT COULD MOVE IN ON THE WESTERLY BREEZES...SNOW COVER SHOULD
HELP TO COUNTER-ACT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY...SO WITH CONFIDENCE
BEING FAIRLY LOW OPTED TO MAKE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AIMING HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S MOST AREAS...BUT SOME LOW
30S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

THE LONG TERM WILL MAINLY BE A TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST...WITH A VERY HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE EXTENDING UP TO THE WEST COAST OF CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTRODUCES ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. WE MAY BE ABLE TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME FLURRIES WITH THIS BLAST...SO INCLUDED SOME IN THE
FORECAST FOR ROUGHLY THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR -
18 C IN THE TRI-CITIES AROUND 18Z MONDAY. WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT
LIKE THIS...OUR HIGHS WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE TEENS...AND MY
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE WILL SHATTER RECORD LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY...WHICH ARE 25 DEGREES FOR HASTINGS SET IN
1955...AND 20 DEGREES IN GRAND ISLAND...SET IN 1903. THE TREND IN
NUMERICAL MODELS IS DOWNWARD FOR TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WE WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF 15 TO 17 DEGREE RANGE
FOR MUCH OF OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES AND MAYBE STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER
20S FOR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WIND DIES DOWN A
BIT FROM THE WEST AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST AND TEMPERATURES
WILL DIVE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN JUST STRONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP US ABOVE ZERO...BUT IF THE SURFACE RIDGE HAPPENS TO
MAKE IT INTO THE CWA BY MONDAY NIGHT...WE COULD REALLY TANK AND GO
SUB ZERO...BUT NOT GOING THAT COLD FOR NOW.

THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG TO START THE DAY ON
MONDAY...WHICH WILL GIVE US A FAIRLY STIFF NORTHWEST WIND SUSTAINED
NEAR 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX A BIT
TOWARD LATE DAY AS THE 1034 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN.
NONETHELESS...WIND CHILL WILL BE COLD...AND PROBABLY IN THE -10 TO 0
DEGREE RANGE FOR MOST OF THE DAY...THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF
STIFF WIND AND UNUSUALLY COLD AIR.

AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE PERSISTENT
RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN AND WILL DEAMPLIFY BY
WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY...A TROUGH IS FORECAST IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES...BUT THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE GFS BRINGS THE TROUGH
A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN THE ECMWF...BUT STILL FAR ENOUGH WEST TO
KEEP ITS INFLUENCE OUT OF THE FORECAST. THIS EVENTUAL PATTERN CHANGE
WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARM-UP HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL
ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
BIT OF A SETBACK FOR THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT INTRODUCES COOLER AIR.
THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN BY SATURDAY TO GIVE US A
SPRINKLE IN OUR SOUTH AND EAST...BUT SIGNALS ARE NOT STRONG ENOUGH
TO PUT IN CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...AND IT ACTUALLY
LOOKS WARM ENOUGH TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR A CHANGE IF WE
ACTUALLY DO GET SOME PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DECREASING CLOUD COVER NEAR 15000FT AGL WILL BE NOTED THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER THEN
POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. ONE SET OF GUIDANCE GOES AS FAR
AS TO SUGGEST AN MVFR CEILING WILL BE REALIZED AT BOTH TAF SITES
STARTING AROUND 03Z MONDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT ANY SUCH CEILING INTO EITHER TAF. THE
SURFACE WIND WILL VARY BETWEEN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...SUSTAINED AT 8-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS.
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 40-45KT JET AXIS JUST ABOVE A RELATIVELY
SHALLOW DAYTIME BOUNDARY LAYER COULD PROMOTE A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AT BOTH TAF SITES 21-00Z...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
ANY SUCH WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN TOO WEAK TO INCLUDE IN EITHER
TAF. STILL SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THROUGH THE NEXT 18 HOURS.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 412 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

REGARDING OUR TWO PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES/GRAND ISLAND AND
HASTINGS/...HASTINGS MAY HAVE TIED A RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE
FOR TODAY...AS THE CURRENT RECORD FOR NOV. 15TH IS 26 DEGREES SET
IN BOTH 1997 AND 1935. IF THIS RECORD IS OFFICIALLY TIED...A
RECORD STATEMENT (RERGID) WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS EVENING. LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR TONIGHT APPEAR TO BE SAFE...BUT MAYBE ONLY
BY A FEW DEGREES.

LOOKING AHEAD...RECORDS FOR COLD MAXIMUM TEMPS FOR MONDAY THE 17TH
ARE ALREADY FORECAST TO BE IN JEOPARDY...MORE ON THIS AS IT NEARS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...BRYANT
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH



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