Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 251105
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
605 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING
WITH ANOTHER CLOUDY...SEASONABLY COOL...AND OCCASIONALLY UNSETTLED
24 HOURS IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL AREA. EXPECT THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO CONTINUE TRACK EAST NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...PRIMARILY AFFECTING OUR LOCAL KANSAS
COUNTIES AND THE EASTERN FRINGES OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. ONCE
THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA DURING
THE LATE MORNING HOURS...THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL
SHIFT WEST TOWARDS THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO...FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY.

MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...BUT THANKS TO BUILDING INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE..COULD SEE SOME ACTIVE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...WITH MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA NOW HIGHLIGHTED IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER BY SPC. WITH CLOUD COVER NOT EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY...SOME QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY WILL ACTUALLY BUILD...BUT EVEN SO...WITH FORCING FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE...SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE...AND AT LEAST
MODEST INSTABILITY...EXPECT THE ENVIRONMENT TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS...MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND ESPECIALLY NEAR AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. WITH ALL THESE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE...LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALL APPEAR
POSSIBLE AND WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE MORNING HWO.

WHILE A SIGNIFICANT PORTIONS OF TIME WAS SPENT TRYING TO FIGURE
OUT THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIODS...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND MAINLY FINE TUNES WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE DONE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURE
WISE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR THE
MOST PART THIS AFTERNOON...AND FALL INTO THE 50S TONIGHT...RUNNING
NEAR OR JUST BELOW CLIMO IN MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE UPPER WAVE EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY. EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE EXITING DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. BY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE SOME SUNSHINE. THE DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE AREA.

THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AFFECTS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY. THE EAST
SHOULD STAY DRY DURING THE DAY...BUT AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA
THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. MUCAPE INCREASES TO 1500 TO
2500 J/KG LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

MODELS START TO HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF START OFF WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS ON THURSDAY...AS THE TROUGH
MOVES TO THE EAST...THE GFS CLOSES A LOW THEN BRINGS IT INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE TROUGH AN OPEN WAVE.
EITHER WAY...THERE ARE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE ECMWF HAS THE WAVE A LITTLE FURTHER
TO THE EAST AND GRADUALLY MOVES PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA. HAVE
KEPT SOME LOWER POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS DRY FOR SUNDAY
AS WELL...BUT THE GFS FINALLY STARTS TO MOVE PRECIPITATION OUT. WILL
LEAVE LO POPS IN THE EAST FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

PATCHY FOG NEAR KGRI WILL RESULT IN LIFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH
CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF DURING THE MID
MORNING HOURS...EXPECT MVFR OR NEAR MVFR STRATUS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. OVERALL...WINDS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT AWAY FROM ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY...WITH
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 12KTS OR LESS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ROSSI



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