Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 161028
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
428 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Expect a breezy day as the surface pressure gradient increases and
wind will blow from the south, giving us highs in the 50s with
plenty of sun. Tonight warm air and moisture advection increases
dramatically, with stratus, fog, and even drizzle possibly
forming, at least in our southeast as a strong low-level jet
develops. Temperatures will likely rise during the night in our
southeast. There is hardly agreement among short-range models with
drizzle development, with the NAM being most aggressive placing
this farther northwest into our CWA, including areas southeast of
the tri-cities. Considering our recent past, I believe that the
NAM is on to something.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Still on track for some probably precip Friday night as a
significant wave tracks through. Temperatures have trended
warmer, thus nixing much of the snow that used to be in the
forecast, not that there was a whole lot in previous forecasts to
begin with. There could still be a skiff of snow late Friday night
in our far west and northwest. Went with CONSALL wind behind the
front for Saturday, which beefs it up a bit.

After this, it is a dry forecast, despite another small wave
pulling through sometime around Monday night and another perhaps
Wednesday morning. Moisture will be so limited that the forecast
stays dry. For now, it appears temperatures will be seasonable,
and perhaps above normal after the last trough mentioned as an
upper high in the west builds behind the shortwave trough, with
highs in the mid to upper 50s forecast for day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Thursday)
Issued at 1140 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Main issue will be low-level wind shear on Thursday evening.
Strong low-level jet develops early and looks likely to cause
significant low-level wind shear.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Heinlein


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