Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 270855
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
355 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WITH A
SEASONABLY COOL MORNING FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING WAS TO INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON
AS BOTH THE FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPS AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...WHICH MEANS WE SHOULD SEE SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY GROW
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. SOME MODEL DATA SUPPORTS
THIS...WITH BOTH THE HRRR AND THE RAP INDICATING SOME SPLOTCHY
LIGHT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.

OTHER THAN INTRODUCING THE CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON...FEW
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY A FAIRLY SEASONABLE AIRMASS THAT IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
AT 12Z SUNDAY. THE PLAINS SITS UNDER NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...IN
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO WRN CANADA
AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NERN CONUS. A WEAKER SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING INTO NRN PORTIONS OF MN AT THE
START OF THE DAY...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING WEST/SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENDING
SFC FRONT MOVING INTO NRN NEB. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY FOR SUNDAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO THE
WI/IA/IN AREA BY EVENING. TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING FRONT HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH...WITH MODELS SHOWING IT PUSHING THROUGH ROUGHLY 2/3 OF
THE CWA BY 18Z...AND NORTHERLY WINDS CWA-WIDE BY EVENING. THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY REMAINS DRY...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO KEEP THE
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP JUST OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. THIS
FRONT USHERS IN THOSE NRLY WINDS AND KEEPS DPTS ON THE NICER SIDE IN
THE 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT DOESNT BRING IN A NOTABLE COOLER
AIRMASS. HIGHS FOR SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S
NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH.

THE FORECAST FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK /MON AND TUES/
REMAIN DRY. NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ON MONDAY...BUT A COUPLE SHOTS OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOK
TO BE MOVING INTO THE PAC NW REGION...AND AS WE GET INTO MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...SLIDE THROUGH THE MAIN FLOW AROUND THE EDGE OF THE
RIDGE...CAUSING IT TO DEAMPLIFY A BIT. AT THE SURFACE...THE PATTERN
ACROSS THE AREA IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND SUNDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH S/SWRLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
MON NIGHT/TUES AS LOW PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGH THE
HIGH PLAINS. UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR HIGHS.

MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST STARTS TO BUILD AS WE GET INTO THE
MIDDLE/END PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THOSE ABOVE MENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAKE THEIR WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STARTING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING LOWERS
THE FURTHER OUT IN TIME THE FORECAST GOES...PLENTY OF THINGS TO IRON
OUT IN THE COMING DAYS. HIGHS WED THROUGH FRI REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24
HOURS. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUD FREE SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS AN AREA
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
RESULTING IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI


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