Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 202336

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
636 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

The pattern aloft featured an upper trough moving into the Rockies,
shortwave ridging edging onto the high plains and a low pressure
system in the upper midwest region. At the surface, high pressure
was sliding south along the high plains with another ridge axis
building south from the Dakotas.

Temperatures have risen nicely this afternoon into the 60s, aided by
good insolation and deep mixing which has produced wind gusts near
30 mph at times. Wind speeds will subside heading into tonight
and shift to an easterly direction as the surface ridge axis
migrates east of the Missouri River. Upslope flow and increasing
lift as the upstream upper trough moves into the intermountain
west are expected to generate rain showers tonight primarily
along the high plains. Models suggest some of this precipitation
may affect portions of our western zones and have maintained
small pops.

On Friday, the closed upper system tracks across Kansas, bringing a
solid rain shield across much of Kansas. North of this system,
dry air to the north and east will keep much of the Nebraska
portions of our area dry. North central Kansas could see rain
amounts of a tenth or two from Friday through Friday night.
Forecast models are in agreement with the upper system edging
into southern Missouri Friday night with rain ending across Kansas
west to east.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Heights rise across the plains behind the departing system Friday
night and Saturday. Temperatures Saturday should be near or just
below seasonal readings with highs in the low/mid 60s. Will still
need to keep an eye on low temps Saturday night, close to being
cold enough for a frost mention, but remain borderline at this
time. A better warmup is on tap for Sunday with highs near 70,
but winds will strong/gusty from the south in a tightening
pressure gradient.

Models have trended dry again for Monday with the trough and cold
frontal passage as a shortwave trough translates across the northern
plains. The pattern becomes more progressive Tuesday through
Thursday with intermittent chances for rain as a couple of systems
cross our region. There are still some model differences in the
timing/track that will be resolved with time, but we do see at least
some chances for rain.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Increasing cloudiness is expected in advance of an approaching
wave. Most, if not all rain associated with this system should
remain south of the terminals, with most of any rain arriving in
the afternoon, if at all. VFR conditions should prevail, although
ceiling will gradually lower with time.




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