Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 210000
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
600 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

FOR THE MOST PART...A QUIET 24 HOURS APPEARS IN STORE...WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT NON-FREEZING DRIZZLE
MENTIONED IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THAT
BEING SAID...THERE ARE PLENTY OF TRICKY LITTLE FORECAST ISSUES TO
CONSIDER...AS BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD COVER (MAINLY OF
THE LOWER STRATUS VARIETY FRIDAY) ALSO LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS.
THERE ARE ALSO SOME HINTS THAT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG COULD TRY
DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO EVEN INSERT INTO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
AS SOME OF THIS FOG POTENTIAL MAY BE DUE TO
OVERDONE...MODEL-FABRICATED SNOW COVER (MORE ON THAT BELOW).

STARTING OFF WITH THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 3PM/21Z...AND NOT THAT
ANYBODY IS COMPLAINING BUT WE HAVE ANOTHER DAY WITH AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY-WARMER-THAN-EXPECTED TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE
THE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW PACK MAINLY CONFINED TO
HAMILTON/YORK/POLK COUNTIES. UNDER ESSENTIALLY WALL-TO-WALL
SUNSHINE PER VISIBLE SATELLITE...HIGH TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTHEAST...UPPER 30S/LOW 40S CENTRAL
AND MID-UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN KS ZONES. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA REVEALS
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL AREA...AS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS REMAINS IN BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN UPPER JET BRANCHES...ONE
ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE BROAD TROUGH SLOWLY DEPARTING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS...AND A SOUTHERN BRANCH ALIGNED FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO TX. UPSTREAM OF THE LOCAL AREA...A
FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF
TRAVERSING THE ROCKIES...WHILE A STRONGER WAVE IS WELL TO THE WEST
COMING ONSHORE THE CA COAST. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOCAL AREA
RESIDES ON THE BACK-SIDE OF A ROUGHLY 1024 MILLIBAR RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED OVER THE NEB/IA BORDER AREA...WITH THIS RETURN FLOW
RESULTING IN AFTERNOON BREEZES GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS
FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.

LOOKING FORWARD INTO THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE
HIGH IN DRY CONDITIONS AND WANT TO RE-EMPHASIZE THAT THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT WE HAD GOING IN THE
FORECAST 1-2 DAYS AGO WAS REMOVED BY THE PREVIOUS NIGHT SHIFT AND
REMAINS OUT. THIS IS BECAUSE MODELS ARE AT LEAST IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT ANY APPRECIABLE DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
REMAIN SAFELY SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE. HIGHER UP
THOUGH...AT LEAST A MODEST INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST LATER IN THE NIGHT.
THAT BEING SAID...SKY COVER WAS REDUCED CONSIDERABLY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...GENERALLY EXPECTED TO AVERAGE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING
AND PARTLY CLOUDY LATER IN THE NIGHT (EXCEPT BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY TOWARD SUNRISE IN SOUTHWESTERN AREAS). IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVEL BIG PICTURE TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED FAIRLY LOW
AMPLITUDE CENTRAL ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...TURNING FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AT THE
SURFACE...BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AS
THE RIDGE AXIS DEPARTS FARTHER EAST...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT CONTINUING TO AVERAGE 5-10 MPH. ALTHOUGH
THIS SORT OF SETUP IS SOMETIMES CONDUCIVE TO AT LEAST LIMITED FOG
FORMATION...FEEL THAT THE LIGHT BUT STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZES
SHOULD LARGELY MITIGATE THAT POSSIBILITY AND GIVEN THAT NEITHER
THE RAP13/HRRR SUGGEST VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MOST/ALL OF
THE NIGHT WILL FOREGO ANY FORMAL MENTION. IN ADDITION...MODELS
SUCH AS THE 12Z/18Z NAM APPEAR TO BE OVERDOING NEAR-SURFACE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY TONIGHT IN PART DUE TO A GROSSLY OVERZEALOUS
SNOW COVER INITIALIZATION OF AT LEAST 2-3 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN/EASTERN CWA...MEANING THAT IN SOME PLACES THE MODEL
IS ASSUMING THERE IS MORE SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND THAN WHAT
ACTUALLY FELL LAST WEEKEND! SO WHILE CANNOT RULE OUT FOG
POTENTIAL WITH CERTAINTY TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH THAT
ITS NOT IN THE FORECAST. LAST BUT NOT LEAST FOR TONIGHT...MADE
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPERATURES AS THINGS COULD FALL FAIRLY
QUICKLY THIS EVENING BEFORE STEADYING OUT OR EVEN RISING SLIGHTLY
LATER TONIGHT AS BREEZES TURN SOUTHERLY AND HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE IN.
THE NET RESULT IS A RANGE FROM UPPER TEENS NORTHEAST TO LOW-MID
20S SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.

FOR THE FRIDAY DAYTIME HOURS...WILL AGAIN EMPHASIZE THAT
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS IS NOT OVERLY HIGH...AS THERE COULD BE QUITE A
GRADIENT IN CLOUD COVER FROM WEST (SUNNIER) TO EAST (CLOUDIER) ACROSS
THE AREA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
BIG PICTURE...THE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE HEART OF THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...WITH MID
LEVEL SATURATION SERIOUSLY LACKING THERE IS ALMOST NO CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP...AND MODELS ARE IN ALMOST UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT
ON THIS. THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
SLUG OF LOWER LEVEL STRATUS LIKELY BASED IN THE 1000-2000 FT
RANGE WILL INFILTRATE MUCH OF MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE
BEST CHANCES FOR LEGITIMATE LIGHT DRIZZLE PRODUCTION UNDER THIS
STRATUS DECK SHOULD REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA ALONG A PATH FROM
CENTRAL/EASTERN KS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NEB...THERE COULD BE JUST
ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE LOCALLY THAT HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF DRIZZLE TO FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MORE SPECIFICALLY...HAVE CONFINED THIS DRIZZLE
MENTION MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A HEBRON-MANKATO-OSBORNE LINE.
FORTUNATELY...IT APPEARS THAT BY THE TIME ANY LIGHT DRIZZLE WOULD
POSSIBLY FALL IN THE LOCAL AREA THAT TEMPS SHOULD BE STARTING TO
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING...SO THUS HAVE STEERED CLEAR OF ANY FREEZING
DRIZZLE MENTION. EVEN IF LIGHT DRIZZLE DOES NOT ULTIMATELY
MATERIALIZE...THE LOWER CLOUD DECK SHOULD PROVIDE MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO CLOUDY SKIES FOR ROUGHTLY THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY...WHILE IN NORTHWESTERN AREAS THE DAY SHOULD START
OUT RATHER CLOUDY DUE TO MAINLY MID-HIGH CLOUDS BUT THEN START
CLEARING SOMEWHAT DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE.
THE NET RESULT IS WHAT COULD BE A SHARP CLOUD COVER GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THIS TRICKY SKY COVER...HAVE TAKEN A BEST-
STAB AT HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW LEANING SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE 12Z 4KM
WRF-ARW...WHICH DOES NOT APPEAR TO SUFFER FROM MAJOR SNOW-COVER
ISSUES. THIS RESULTS IN A DECENT WEST-TO-EAST GRADIENT AIMED FROM
UPPER 30S FAR EAST...LOW-MID 40S CENTRAL AND MID-UPPER 40S
WEST...WITH COUNTIES SUCH AS FURNAS MOST FAVORED TO HIT 50. FOR
SEVERAL WESTERN COUNTIES...THESE LATEST HIGHS REPRESENT A 3-5
DEGREE INCREASE VERSUS PREVIOUS FORECAST. WIND-WISE DURING THE
DAY...ITS MUCH THE SAME AS TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF
SOUTHERLY BREEZES A FEW TICKS EITHER SIDE OF 10 MPH AND GUSTS TO
AROUND 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY LIES WITH A COUPLE
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FRIDAY
NIGHT...MODELS ARENT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT...SHOWING THE STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE DESERT SW...AND A
LEAD SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
CONTINUED TO KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT DRY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THAT WAVE
TO THE EAST...BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL WHETHER OR NOT OUR SERN
CORNER GETS CLIPPED BY SOME LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE. JUST NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO HAVE A MENTION GOING AT THIS POINT.

SATURDAY...LITTLE HAS CHANGED OVERALL...STILL LOOKING AT THIS TO BE
DRY...AND THE WARMEST DAY CWA-WIDE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT MAIN UPPER LOW MOVING EAST INTO THE
HEART OF TX BY THE END OF THE DAY SATURDAY WHILE FLOW OVER OUR AREA
REMAINING WESTERLY...WITH A FETCH OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIP CONTINUING TO AFFECT AREAS NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE E/SE OF THE
CWA. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HELPS KEEP WINDS OUT OF
THE S/SW THROUGH THE DAY. ALONG WITH THAT IS MORE MILD 850MB TEMPS
NEAR 10C...AND HIGHS ABOVE AVERAGE ARE POSSIBLE...CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTHEAST TO UPPER 50S IN THE SW.

THROUGH SUNDAY/MONDAY...THAT SOUTHERN CONUS DISTURBANCE TAKES A
SHIFT TO THE N/NE AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS SOUTH INTO THE
ROCKIES...EXTENDING FROM ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO FAR
NRN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. BY THE END OF THE DAY...MODELS SHOW THAT
SRN DISTURBANCE BECOMING PHASED IN WITH THE NRN LOW...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO END UP OVER ERN PORTIONS OF ND BY THE END OF THE DAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES PUSHING EAST...AND THROUGH MONDAY
IS STARTING TO PUSH FURTHER INTO MN AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY SOME WITH WHETHER OR NOT OUR FAR NERN
CORNER OF THE CWA IS CLIPPED BY SOME LIGHT PRECIP...AND HAVE SOME
LOW POPS GOING GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF AN ORD TO HEBRON LINE.
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY ARE TRICKY AS A SFC FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS
SYSTEM WILL MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH CWA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. WITH THE COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN...EXPECTING HIGHS TO BE COOLER
THAN SAT...BUT HIGHS STILL LOOK TO REACH THE 40S/LOW 50S. THE BETTER
PUSH OF THAT COLDER AIR COMES IN FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE
30S/40S. BOTH DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY BREEZY THANK TO THAT
COLDER AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES...WITH NWRLY WINDS IN THE 20
TO 25 MPH RANGE CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY...AS THE CWA
SITS IN THE WAKE OF THIS LATEST SYSTEM. BY TUESDAY MORNING...MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS
TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE CWA...AND MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BUILDING
IN BEHIND. WITH TIME...DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ARE STARTING TO
INCREASE...MAINLY WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGING OVER/JUST OFF
THE WEST COAST. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING
A NOTABLE CHANGE FROM MONDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S
IN THE NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SW.

LOOKING AHEAD TO WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY...UNFORTUNATELY AT
THIS POINT THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTIES YET TO BE
RESOLVED...THUS CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE.  AT 12Z WED
MORNING...WHILE MODELS AGREE WITH THERE BEING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...LOCATION OF THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS
DIFFERS AS DOES THE OVERALL AMPLITUDE OF THAT RIDGE.  THE GFS IS
MORE AMPLIFIED...SHOWING THE AXIS IN MORE OF A N/S ORIENTATION FROM
THE HIGH OFF THE BAJA COAST...REACHING WELL INTO WRN CANADA. THE
ECMWF/GEM ARE MORE OF A NW/SE ORIENTATION...WITH A DISTURBANCE
MOVING ONTO THE PAC NW COAST...ACCOMPANIED BY A HEFTY UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK. THE ECMWF CONTINUES ITS TREND OF THAT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLIDING E/SE...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL /PERHAPS A COUPLE INCHES FOR SOME?/ TO THE ENTIRE
CWA...MAINLY WED NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A SHOT
OF MUCH COLDER AIR. THEN THERE IS THE GFS...WHICH KEEPS THAT RIDGING
WELL IN PLACE...GRADUALLY SLIDING IT THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND ONTO
THE PLAINS FOR THANKSGIVING...KEEPING THINGS NOT AS COLD AND DRY.
LOT OF THINGS TO IRON OUT...BUT THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS AS WE
APPROACH THANKSGIVING NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON UPCOMING
FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

CEILINGS WILL LOWER FOR FRIDAY TO MVFR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
THAT HIGH AS TO HOW LOW CEILINGS COULD GO. THE NAM SUGGESTS LOWER
THAN THIS. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HEINLEIN


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