Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 151724
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1124 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 403 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Been another night of quiet conditions across the region, with
upper air and satellite data showing a well amplified pattern
across the CONUS. Areas of low pressure are located over the Great
Lakes and northwestern Mex, while a ridge axis extends from off
the coast of central CA into the northern Rockies...the result
being northerly flow across the Central Plains. Outside of a few
wisps of cirrus passing through, skies early this morning are
clear. At the surface, high pressure centered off to the west is
resulting in west- northwest winds across the CWA, with a weak
pressure gradient keeping speeds in the 5-10 MPH range.

No significant changes made to the forecast through the short term
period. Models are in good agreement showing upper level turning
more northwesterly with time. as that system over the Great Lakes
continues to push off to the east. Overall, little in the way of
cloud cover is expected. At the surface, winds will turn more west
then southwesterly through the day as the main ridge axis slides
off to the east, and a trough axis works its way east. Little
change in that is expected this evening/tonight. Speeds look to
top out around 10-15 MPH. Models also are in good agreement
showing increasing temps aloft building east today, and we should
see a nice bump up in temperatures. Current forecast highs range
from the mid 50s east to lower 60s west.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 403 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Little change in thinking from the past few nights.
Overall...expect high pressure to be in control the local
weather pattern through the end of the work week...with the first
west coast storm expected to bring a weak and dry cold front
across the local area Saturday...with increasing moisture ahead of
the more southerly secondary system...which is expected to bring a
chance for showers and thunderstorms to the local area late Sunday
night through Monday.

Temperatures through the period will be above normal...with the
warmest readings expected Thursday and Friday...when highs will
likely reach 70 degrees across a large portion of the local area.
The weak cold front on Saturday will only bring a modest drop in
temperatures...with highs likely still climbing into the
60s...with 60s then prevailing through at least the middle of
next week.

While there remains modest instability ahead of the secondary
system late in the weekend...limited thunderstorm chances to an
isolated nature...as this does not appear to be a set-up for more
widespread convection. Even so...a few thunderstorms appear likely
as moisture surges...instability builds...and some weak forcing is
realized.

As also mentioned yesterday...while fire weather does not look to
be a huge concern...near critical relative humidity levels are
expected both Thursday and Friday afternoons...with the saving
grace being the fact that winds are expected to remain light under
the upper level ridge with a weak surface pressure gradient in
place across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the forecast. Winds
will be west to southwest through the period and generally
light...around 10kts or so. High cirrus is possible tonight into
tomorrow.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...Rossi
AVIATION...Billings Wright



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