Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 190525
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1225 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Gusty northwest winds will gradually diminish late this afternoon
into the evening, becoming light and variable overnight.

Also tonight, a weak shortwave will move through the area. This is
most evident in the 850-700mb heights and also on the 310K
isentropic layer. Short-term models have mostly all latched onto
the idea of light QPF with this wave. Therefore I`ve included
light showers from 3-12Z. With no appreciable instability to work
with, we shouldn`t have any lightning with this activity.

Overall, Monday will be similar to today, with mostly clear skies
and gusty northwesterly winds. High temperatures in the mid to
upper 80s will be a few degrees warmer than today, though.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Monday night into Tuesday afternoon should remain dry, although
slight chances for thunderstorms return to western portions of the
area late Tuesday afternoon into the evening as southerly flow
increases. The GFS shows a small area of ~2000j/kg of MLCAPE.
Despite a lack of upper-level support, we should have 0-6km bulk
shear of 40-50 kts. Therefore, if storms develop early enough, I
wouldn`t be surprised to see a few become strong to severe.
Showers and storms will likely continue into the overnight,
enhanced by a LLJ that gradually veers eastward overnight.

After activity ends Wednesday morning, the majority of the daytime
hours will be dry. A cold front will affect the area in the evening
and overnight, but ahead of this, high temperatures will reach the
mid 90s to near 100 degrees Wednesday afternoon. The
aforementioned front moves through in the evening, giving us
another chance for thunderstorms Wednesday evening and night.

An upper-level shortwave is forecast to move across the Central
Plains on Thursday into Friday. At this time, it appears that the
best chance for rain/storms during this timeframe will be Thursday
night.

A stronger front will move through associated with this wave,
which will bring us substantially cooler air for Saturday and
Sunday, but another quick-moving shortwave will give us a chance for
showers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Monday)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Mid level clouds will move through the terminals through day
break. There could be a sprinkle with the mid level clouds as they
move through. Clouds should diminish during the day.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...JCB



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