Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 270547
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1247 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

ALOFT: AMPLIFICATION WAS UNDERWAY WITH AN ANOMALOUS /+2 SD/ RIDGE
AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE WRN USA. A SHORTWAVE TROF WAS MOVING
THRU TODAY AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT SHWRS/CLOUDS THIS
MORNING. THIS TROF WILL ESTABLISH DRY NW FLOW OVER THE PLAINS AS
IT DEPARTS TO THE E TONIGHT.

SURFACE: THE MAIN POLAR FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE SRN PLAINS NE
INTO THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS. HIGH PRES WAS OVER THE NRN PLAINS.
THIS HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SINK S AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW.

NOW THRU SUNSET: P/CLOUDY. ISOLATED HIT-OR-MISS SHWRS WILL CONT TO
DEVELOP BUT GRADUALLY WANE AFTER 22Z. MLCAPE IS GENERALLY BELOW
500 J/KG AND WILL ONLY DECREASE AS DWPTS LOWER.

TONIGHT: DIURNAL CLOUDS DISSIPATE LEAVING CLEAR SKIES. LOW TEMPS
ARE CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST.

SAT: M/SUNNY. VERY NICE WITH LOW DWPTS AND LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD
SEE FEW-SCT CU DEVELOP AND GRADUALLY BECOME FLATTER THRU THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

MAINLY A FORECAST TRYING TO DETERMINE WHEN WE MIGHT HAVE CHANCES
OF RAIN NEXT WEEK.

AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS IN STORE WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
TROUGH TO THE EAST. ALTHOUGH OUR CHANCES FOR RAIN APPEAR SCANT
WITH THE STRONG INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN RIDGE...WE COULD HAVE
POSSIBILITIES OF PRECIPITATION HERE AND THERE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD
MID-LATE WEEK WHEN IMPULSES MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES HELP BREAK DOWN THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE A BIT. TEMPERATURES
APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD IN THE 80S...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW WITH TIMING AND HOW GREAT THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
ARE LATER NEXT WEEK. WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BY
SUNDAY NIGHT....THIS FRONT COULD STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CWA...PROVIDING A POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR SOME RAIN...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH...BUT MOISTURE IS SEVERELY LIMITED AND NOT INCLUDING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER POTENTIAL
WAVE COULD MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY....WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE TROUGH POSSIBLY GIVING ENOUGH FOCUS FOR MORE
PRECIPITATION...AS WELL AS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS MODELS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD A RETROGRADE OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST BY LATE
WEEK. THIS COULD MEAN SOME RAIN BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

MID-LONG RANGE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS DIVERGE BY MID-WEEK...
WHICH KEEPS CONFIDENCE LOW FOR ANY KING OF COVERAGE OR TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS IMPULSES TRY TO MAKE THEIR WAY THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS
TO THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24
HOURS. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUD FREE SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS AN AREA
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
RESULTING IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ROSSI


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