Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 101121
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
621 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES.

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS HAVE BEEN
STRONG AND GUSTY. AN HOUR OR SO LATER THE WINDS REMAIN GUSTY...BUT
HAVE DECREASED A BIT. WINDS THROUGH DAY BREAK WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FAIRLY BREEZY.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE DAY. DESPITE THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR TODAY.
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT A VERY COLD ONE AND TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD STILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES. THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND WINDS
TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH BUT REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WILL KEEP SMALL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WEST THIS EVENING AND ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW BY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER IS A BIT OF A CONCERN FOR FRIDAY AS SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOP. GOOD MIXING WILL HELP BRING DOWN DEWPOINTS A BIT...DESPITE
THE SOUTH FLOW TRYING TO BRING IN SOME MORE MOISTURE. AS THE
FORECAST STANDS...NEITHER THE WIND SPEED NOR THE HUMIDITY WILL BE
LOW ENOUGH TO DO MUCH MORE THAN MENTION IN THE HWO THAT THERE WILL
BE INCREASED FIRE DANGER.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
DEEPEN. USED CONSRAW FOR TEMPERATURE ON SATURDAY...AND FOR THAT
MATTER...FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE A DRY
LINE COULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CWA AND PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS BY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN ALONG THE COLD FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AS IT PASSES SOUTH. MUCAPES OF 1500 TO JUST OVER 2000 J/KG
SUGGEST THAT WE COULD GET AT LEAST A STRONG STORM. SUNDAY WILL BE
WINDY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE REAL PUSH FOR COLD AIR DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL SUNDAY. IT
WILL TAKE AWHILE FOR TEMPERATURES TO GET COLD ENOUGH TO START
TALKING ABOUT SNOW...BUT THAT PROBABLY WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW WILL OCCUR. IT IS STILL HARD
TOO TELL HOW MUCH SNOW COULD OCCUR...IF MUCH AT ALL AS THIS ALL
DEPENDS ON WHEN PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF COMPARED TO TEMPERATURES
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY BUT SEASONABLY COOL AS
TEMPERATURES AT 925-850 MB LAG A BIT WITH INCREASE OF TEMPERATURES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PRETTY MUCH ENSURE A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

NORTH WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DIMINISH AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST WINDS TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE SOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...BUT EXPECT THEY WILL BE BRIEF IF THEY OCCUR TONIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB



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