Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 110527
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1127 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 820 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Temperatures have been staying a few degrees warmer than expected
so far this evening. This is largely due to winds staying in the
8-13 MPH range at most places. Some mid level clouds are moving
into the area out of South Dakota as well. For these reasons, I
went ahead and bumped up low temperatures for tonight by 2-4
degrees. Hourly temperatures have been adjusted to hopefully match
this trend a bit better.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

The primary forecast concern will center around the extreme fire
danger this afternoon across much of the area and then again
tomorrow primarily across our northern Kansas counties. See the
fire weather section below for more information.

A strong cold front will move through Monday morning resulting in
falling temperatures by afternoon with strong and very unpleasant
north northwest winds. Temperatures will actually remain rather
mild tonight for this time of year just ahead of the cold front
with lows generally around 30 degrees. This will be around 10
degrees above our normal lows.

High temperatures on Monday could reach the mid to upper 40s
across south central Nebraska with mixing along and just behind
the front late Monday morning or around noon and then temperatures
will begin to fall during the afternoon as winds increase,
possibly gusting to 45 mph. There will be strong mixing behind the
cold front. Kansas counties should see highs in the low 50s
before temperatures also begin to fall there by early afternoon.
This will be another dry frontal passage.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

The current pattern of an upper level ridge over the western
United States and an upper level trough across the eastern United
States will persist throughout the forecast period. The upper
ridge will become less amplified with time gradually flattening
out some. We will continue to see weak moisture starved shortwaves
tracking through within the northwesterly flow regime bringing
occasional short lived cooler shots of air while we remain dry and
overall abnormally warm.

Monday night...Will be one of the cooler nights behind Monday`s
cold front, but lows will still be above normal in the lower to
middle 20s.

Tuesday...We start to see more of a downslope westerly wind
component that will begin to warm up western zones, while eastern
zones remain cool, but everyone will still be well above normal
with 40s east and 50s west.

Wednesday and Thursday...Another cool front will push through
Wednesday, but it will be a glancing shot of cooler air with a
reinforcing shot of colder air on Thursday. With mixing on
Wednesday we might actually be warmer than Tuesday in the 50s for
most areas, but we do expect a cool down back into the 40s for
Thursday with that secondary cold front.

Friday through Sunday...We remain warm and dry with highs
generally in the 50s with prevailing downslope warming winds.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Monday)
Issued at 1121 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Dry weather with VFR conditions currently forecast for this TAF
period, main concern lies with winds. LLWS potential increases
later tonight and winds aloft increase, continuing into the early
morning hours, before a sfc cold front moves through the region.
This front will usher in stronger northwesterly winds, lasting
through the afternoon hours, with gusts at times near 45 MPH not
out of the question. Winds should taper off this evening. Cloud
cover is expected to increase later this morning, with ceiling
heights dropping, but at this point kept things VFR. Will have to
see how models trend with later today, some higher end MVFR
ceilings may need to be added.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 512 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Monday...RH values will be much higher tomorrow across most areas
due to the cooler temperatures behind the morning cold front.
However, our far southwestern Kansas counties could see enough
time ahead of the cold front and enough mixing to still get RH
values down close to that 20 percent criteria. The wind will be
stronger across the entire area on Monday behind the cold front
with strong mixing. Have collaborated with surrounding weather
service offices to issue a fire weather watch for Phillips,
Rooks, and Osborne counties where the RH will also be low in
addition to the strong winds. Confidence is not as high as I would
like with this watch especially if temperatures end up being
colder, which is certainly a possibility.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...Fire Weather Watch from 11 AM CST Monday through Monday
     afternoon for KSZ005-017-018.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mangels
SHORT TERM...Wesely
LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...ADP
FIRE WEATHER...Wesely/Mangels



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