Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 192022
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
322 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

IDESPREAD RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF
THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGE
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH TONIGHT AND DECENT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...AND KMCK HAS ALREADY TALLIED OVER ONE HALF OF
AN INCH OF RAIN THIS AFTN.  INSTABILITY IS LACKING FOR THIS PCPN
EVENT AND WE ARE JUST LOOKING AT RAINFALL WITH NO TSTM ACTIVITY.

THE UPPER WAVE REACHES NORTHERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT WITH RAIN
CONTINUING THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE RAIN WILL LIFT OUT ON
WEDNESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THE EARLY AFTN WILL BE
PRECIPITATION FREE AND HAVE LINGERED SMALL POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SC NEB. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO HOLD FIRM AND COMBINED WITH THE COOL
AIRMASS TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS JUST AVERAGING IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH...BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME CLOUDS
AROUND THE AREA. STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COOL AS IT WOULD BE IF IT WAS CLEAR. THE SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL EVEN THOUGH THEY WILL BE
WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. AFTER THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST THE WINDS TURN TO
THE SOUTH AND MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREADS ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME THERE IS LITTLE INSTABILITY SO HAVE
JUST SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE SHOWERS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT
THERE IS A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY...BUT STILL EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY THEN OPENS
AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE SOME
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES THROUGH...BUT THE MAIN IDEA IS THE SAME WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND MAYBE LINGERING INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP A LITTLE AND WARM INTO THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND LOWERED CEILINGS TO THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AS MVFR CEILINGS
HAVE SETUP OVER THE AIRPORTS. UPSTREAM OBS WITH THE DISTURBANCE
ARE SCATTERED IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND DECIDED TO TEMPO SCT/BKN AS
SOME OF THE OBS HAVE BEEN IN AND OUT WITH MVFR CEILINGS TODAY. THE
WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...BEDA


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