Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 172014

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
314 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Upper level data showing lower amplitude southwesterly flow
remains in place across the region, high pressure is settles
over eastern portions of TX, while low pressure spins over central
Canada and a broad trough sits over much of the western CONUS.
Had some scattered showers affecting primarily southern areas this
morning that have moved off/tapered off, and outside of a few
sprinkles moving in from the southwest, it`s been a dry afternoon.
At the surface, winds have been easterly through the day, thanks
to high pressure centered over portions of north-northeastern
NE/southern SD. Speeds have generally been on the lighter side,
around 10 MPH, but there have been occasional gusts near 15 MPH.
Certainly on the cooler side of things, esp compared to just a
couple days ago, with temps in the mid/upper 60s to lower 70s.

Looking to this evening/tonight and into tomorrow morning, main
concern lies with precipitation chances. Models continue to show
increasing chances overnight, mainly closer to/after midnight, as
another weak mid level shortwave disturbance slides in from the
southwest and there`s and increase in the LLJ/warm air advection.
Kept the higher chance/likely PoPs going, with many of the models
showing the central/eastern thirds of the CWA having the best
chances. Didn`t increase PoPs though, mainly due to some models
showing activity being more scattered in nature. Not expecting an
appreciable increase in shear/instability, so while thunderstorms
are expected, severe weather is not anticipated. The surface high
pressure currently in the area is expected to push off to the east
with time through the short term period, while a trough of low
pressure develops over the High Plains. Winds will becoming
increasingly south-southeasterly with time, with speeds remaining
on the lighter side, topping out around 10-15 MPH.

Some lingering PoPs remain into the morning hours tomorrow, but
confidence timing isn`t the highest, some models have activity
clearing the CWA by 12Z. Whether it`s earlier/later, the forecast
for the remainder of the day is dry once it pushes east.
Rebounding temperatures are expected as the cooler air mass from
this weekend pushes east, and forecast highs remain in the mid 70s
northeast to lower 80s west/south.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

The main story with the much of the rest of the work week is the
continued dry forecast. By 12Z Tuesday, models are showing a
reinforcement of the southwesterly flow aloft, as another stronger
storm system has moved into the Pac NW/western Canada. This system
has a broad influence over the western CONUS, amplified even more
as we get into Thursday as another piece of energy digs further
south and high pressure builds into the Midwest. Models are in
pretty good agreement keeping Tue-Wed-Thurs dry, even with a cold
frontal passage on Wed.

Tuesday is looking to be a noticably warmer and breezy day across
the area. A tightened pressure gradient is expected to develop
ahead the approaching cold front, and with increased mixing, SSW
winds of 15-25 MPH are not out of the question, with the stronger
winds likely across southern areas. With temps aloft continuing
to climb and better mixing, highs are expected to be at least 20
deg higher than they are currently, with mid 80s to lower 90s
currently forecast. Will also have to keep a close eye on fire wx
conditions Tuesday aftn, mainly west of a LXN/Beloit line, with
forecast RH values currently under 30%.

Tuesday night and into Wednesday are the periods most affected by
this passing front. Models are in pretty good agreement with the
timing of the front, bringing through most of/if not all of the
CWA by 12Z Wed. Agreement is also good with the better upper level
forcing pushing this front being well to the north of the CWA, so
the forecast remains dry. Outside of the ECMWF, models keep
precip in SD and points north. The main impacts on our CWA will be
the switch in winds to the north-northwest, drier dewpoints and a
brief break from Tuesday`s temps. Current forecast highs for Wed
are closer to normal, in the mid-upper 70s to lower 80s.

Conditions for Thursday may end up fairly similar to Tuesday,
warmer and breezy. Surface low pressure is expected to develop
on the lee side of the Rockies, getting winds turned back around
to the south. The tightened pressure gradient/increased mixing
potential returns, and speeds in the 15-25 MPH range will again be
possible. Mid 80s to lower 90s return for highs.

The weather pattern for the end of the work week and upcoming
weekend is looking to become more unsettled. Models are in pretty
good agreement showing a much more amplified upper level pattern
across the CONUS, but have some differences in the strength (the
ECMWF is a more organized cut off low at 500mb). Larger scale lift
will be on the increase across the Plains out ahead of this
western system, with the potential for lead shortwave
disturbances. Exact timing of any of these waves and location will
be dependent on exactly how this western system evolves, but this
looks to be the best chances of widespread rain we`ve had in a
while. Don`t have much confidence in highs at this point, if it
ends up being as wet as some models show, they will need to be


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Monday)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

VFR conditions forecast through the rest of this afternoon and
evening, but models showing the potential for lowering ceilings
overnight. A disturbance passing through the region will also be
bringing the chance for precipitation to the terminal areas,
mainly near/after midnight tonight. Do have MVFR conditions
developing later tonight and continuing through the early morning
hours. Winds through the period will start east-northeasterly,
gradually turning east, then southeasterly. Speeds look to top out
around 10 kts.




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