Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGID 240843
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
343 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

AS EXPECTED...CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA
/MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I 80/ EARLY THIS MORNING...THANKS TO
INCREASED WAA AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRONGER
LOW LEVEL JET NOSING IN FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE SLIDING EAST THIS MORNING...AS THE LLJ WINDS VEER WITH
TIME. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE ROCKIES...AND BY SUNRISE IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE MOVED INTO WRN PORTIONS OF NEB. SFC LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING
ALONG THE WRN PLAINS IS KEEPING WINDS ERLY ACROSS THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH MOST SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH...THOUGH THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 MPH. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IS
HELPING KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH...WITH 3 AM OBS IN THE UPPER
30 TO UPPER 40 DEGREE RANGE.

FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH MAINLY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL LIE WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA...ACTIVITY DRIVEN BY THE LLJ TAPERS
OFF...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS LIFT VIA
THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST INCREASES.
WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS LIKELY WITH TIME /ESP THIS AFTERNOON/.
THERE IS DECENT SUPPORT SHOWING THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE TO
THE EAST OF THE CWA BY MID AFTERNOON...SO PULLED POPS FROM 21-00Z.
DAY SHIFT WILL MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THINGS AND SEE WHETHER
POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED BACK IN ACROSS FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/
REMAINS DRY.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY LIES WITH FIRE WEATHER ISSUES...MAINLY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS A FAIRLY SMALL PORTION OF THE CWA.
AS THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH TODAY...IT WILL ALSO
BE PUSHING A SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA...AND SHOULD USHER IN
W/NWRLY WINDS AND DRIER AIR. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS ACROSS
THE FAR SWRN CORNER OF THE CWA...WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTIER
WINDS AND LOWER RH VALUES LIES. THE OVERALL TREND THE PAST FEW
MODEL RUNS HAS BEEN TO DECREASE WIND SPEEDS...BUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH LINGERS. WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
EXPECTED TO PUSH OUT OF THE WESTERN AREAS EARLIER...THEY WILL HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE TO WARM UP COMPARED TO THE EAST...AND FORECAST
HIGHS RANGE FROM NEAR 50 IN THE EAST TO UPPER 60S IN THE WEST.
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 20S...RH VALUES IN THE
FAR W/SW ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO NEAR/BELOW 20 PERCENT. DECIDED TO
UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RFW FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
DIDNT ADD ANY COUNTIES DUE MAINLY TO WIND SPEED CONFIDENCE BEING
LOW. AGAIN SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

THE MAIN CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM PERIODS IS THAT THE MIDDLE TO THE
END OF THE WORKWEEK TIME FRAME IS NOT LOOKING QUITE AS DRY AS
INDICATED 24 HOURS AGO. ON WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/UPPER MIDWEST REGION WILL SEND A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH THRU THE PLAINS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. THREE HOUR PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT ARE PROGGED
AROUND 5MB AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FOLLOWING FROPA. THE
FRONT MAY FOCUS SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS PRIMARILY FOR
OUR SOUTHEAST CWA DURING THE DAY.

A 1025MB SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND REINFORCES THE COOLER AIRMASS AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL BELOW FREEZING...INTO THE 20S WHICH ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON THURSDAY...THE PATTERN ALOFT AMPLIFIES WITH
THE WESTERN RIDGE MOVING FARTHER INLAND AND A 120KT H25 JET NOSING
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS...DEEPENING THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. AS
THE EASTERN TROUGH DEEPENS...COLDER AIR BACKS ONTO THE PLAINS AND
THE PRESENCE OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER JET WILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR A BAND OF PCPN TO DEVELOP. FOR THE
MOST PART THIS BAND OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER NARROW BUT
MODELS DIFFER ON LOCATION AND HAVE INCLUDED SMALL CHCS FOR PCPN
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA ATTM. GENERALLY EXPECT PCPN TO FALL AS RAIN
WITH SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. THIS BEING SAID...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM ARE COLDER AND IF TRENDS CONTINUE WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE A R/S MIX IF THE COLDER TEMP PROFILE VERIFIES.

FRIDAY IS LOOKING TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN THE COOLER AIR
EXITING TO THE EAST AND WARM AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS
SUGGEST PCPN MAY ALSO DEVELOP FRIDAY WITH UPPER JET STILL MOVING
THRU AND IN WAA. HAVE KEPT POPS SILENT FOR NOW AND WILL MONITOR
TRENDS.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE WESTERN RIDGE MIGRATES EAST AND
BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE
NORMAL INTO THE 60S AND 70S WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD LIES WITHIN THE FIRST
12 HOURS. ELEVATED CONVECTION ONGOING TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL
AREA...AND SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THAT TO REMAIN THE CASE FOR AT
LEAST A LITTLE WHILE LONGER...BUT BETWEEN THAT ACTIVITY PUSHING
NORTH AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST...EXPECT AT
SOME POINT THIS MORNING THERE TO BE SOME AFFECT ON THE TERMINAL
AREAS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...AND KEPT A VCTS MENTION
GOING...WITH JUST A TEMPO MENTION OF -SHRA. WILL SEE HOW THINGS
EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY. ALSO
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL
DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUED THAT MENTION.
CONDITIONS DO LOOK TO IMPROVE NEAR/AFTER MIDDAY...WHEN THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THINGS EAST OF THE TERMINALS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ082.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR KSZ005-017-018.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ADP



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.