Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 151146
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
546 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 321 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Broad ridging within zonal flow will help bring the sun out with
seasonably warm temperatures. Highs should be in the lower to mid
50s, despite the cold front passage from last night. I do expect a
bit of gustiness to the wind from the northwest as low-level lapse
rates increase, especially for our northeast where winds aloft are
a bit stronger. Lows tonight should be in the upper 20s to near
30, which is quite typical for this time of year. I favored
CONshort temps, dewpoints and wind for during the day.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 321 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Flow becomes more amplified aloft later in the week.

Models are still trending slower overall with the trough moving in
Friday/Friday night. There is a split among solutions from longer
range models, but short-term models are favoring more amplified
and slower, which tips the scales toward a slower solution. This
would mean that we could potentially stand a better chance at
getting a skiff of snow Friday night.

I favored CONSALL wind through Saturday, ahead and directly behind
the cold front coming through through Saturday, which gives us
stronger wind speeds than what was advertised by initialized
grids.

Temperatures still look either mild or at least seasonable to the
extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Thursday)
Issued at 540 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

VFR conditions are forecast. LLWS looks like it has ended this
morning, but a low-level jet late tonight will develop, with the
axis potentially just far enough east by 12Z to affect KEAR
somewhat, but not enough to include any LLWS in the forecast.
It is something to watch in future forecasts, however. Wind may
gust some in the afternoon, but not anticipating enough of a gust
for a new FM group.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Heinlein


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