Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 190522
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1222 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 417 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

The main concern for this afternoon and tonight is the potential
for thunderstorms as well as continuation of the heat advisory
this evening.

A solid layer of low to mid level cu formed late this morning and
has persisted through much of the afternoon. This has held down
temperatures across much of south central Nebraska. Highs have
struggled to get up into the upper 80s and low 90s across the area.
If this trend continues an early cancellation of the heat advisory
may be possible, although southern portions are getting closer to
criteria.

Models have not been very consistent on thunderstorm chances for
today. The NAM has kept things mainly dry for our area while the
HRRR has had a line enter from our northwest with scattered
showers and thunderstorms around through much of this evening
through tonight into the early morning hours. Although any
widespread precipitation is not expected, have kept some lower
pops across much of the area to account for lingering showers.
The best chances to see any severe weather remains across
northwestern portions of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 417 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

The stretch of hot weather really ramps up tomorrow through
Friday with heat indices of 100 to 108 possible across the area.
Have upgraded southeastern portions of the CWA to a heat warning
to account for heat indices near or above 105 and low temperatures
overnight only dropping to the mid 70s. Have the rest of the area
in a heat advisory for tomorrow afternoon as the prolonged nature
of the heat is a bit more uncertain in these areas, especially on
Friday with an advancing cold front expected to start moving
through the area.

The upper level flow becomes more northwesterly as we head
into the end of the week with multiple weak shortwaves providing
us with slight chances for precipitation Thursday night through
Monday. With a front expected to move through on Friday, cooler
weather is expected into the weekend with highs back in the 80s to
lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Abundant low-level moisture may allow for patchy fog development
tonight. KLXN and KHDE are already down to 5SM. Winds may stay
just high enough to prevent the fog from becoming dense, though
Based on the HRRR/RAP, which are just starting to pick up on the
fog potential, EAR has the better potential to fall into MVFR
visibilities, so I`ve limited it to there for now.

South winds will be gusty tomorrow afternoon, gusting over 15
kts at times.

Tomorrow night looks like a good candidate for LLWS, but this is
just beyond the TAF period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT
     Friday for NEZ064-076-077-085>087.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>063-072>075-082>084.

KS...Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT
     Friday for KSZ006-007-018-019.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for KSZ005-017.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Petr
LONG TERM...Petr
AVIATION...Mangels



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