Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 190715
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
215 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING ONE DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST
THROUGH THE MIDWEST/GULF COAST REGIONS...LOW PRESSURE SLIDING
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE SWRN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE CWA SITS BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NERN CONUS AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...ALLOWING FOR AT TIMES GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS WHICH HAS
AFFECTED THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY IS FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF
DIMINISHING...QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL IT CONTINUE TO DO SO
AND HOW FAR WILL TEMPS BE ABLE TO CLIMB THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THAT SFC BOUNDARY
ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...AND WHILE SOME OF THAT ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING WITH
THINKING THAT WILL DIMINISH AS IT MOVES EAST...ESP WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUES INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS TOMORROW...WITH ANY ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH 00Z.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE
SURFACE PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH SRLY WINDS
CONTINUING AS THE TROUGH AXIS IF ANYTHING SHIFTS A TOUCH
EAST...BUT IS STILL WEST OF THE CWA. WARMER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...WHILE
NOT OVERLY AMPLIFIED...STARTS SLIDING EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
TOMORROW FORECAST TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH READINGS NEAR
90 ACROSS THE SWRN HALF/THIRD OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CHANCES AND TIMING OF POTENTIAL RAINFALL
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO...A CONSIDERATION OF HEAT
INDEX FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM IS NEEDED.

A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE THE MAJOR FEATURE TO CONTEND
WITH FOR THE LONG TERM. ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...CONVECTION COULD
FIRE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
SEVERE PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT SOME OF THIS COULD BE SEVERE WEST
OF THE CWA IF IT DEVELOPS. A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET COULD VERY
WELL MAINTAIN CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AS THE JET COULD
BE NEAR 50 KTS WEST OF THE CWA. AS THE CONVECTION AND THE JET
MOVES EAST...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE AS THE JET AXIS CREEPS
INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ABOUT PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...AND ENSEMBLES FROM THE GFS ARE
BARELY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. KEEPING THE CAUTIOUS NATURE OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH NOT GOING TOO HIGH FOR CHANCES HERE...AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW FOR NOW...SO NOT GOING MORE THAN SLIGHT
CHANCE HERE...OR GENERALLY FOR ANY PART OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE LONG TERM...TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB ARE
GENERALLY NOT FAVORABLE TO CONVECTION...PLACING A LID OVER THE CWA
WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST BETWEEN 15C AND 17C...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS
A MINOR BREAK TOWARD FRIDAY. DAYTIME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CWA IS
NOT LIKELY AND MOST OF ANY CONVECTION WILL OCCUR AT NIGHT...IF
IT OCCURS AT ALL. THERE ARE SOME LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATING A
POSSIBLE BREAK IN THE LID TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE
FORECAST...HOWEVER.

A SIMILAR SITUATION COULD OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PLAINS
CONVECTION MAKING ITS WAY INTO OUR CWA OVERNIGHT...BUT THE JET
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...AND MOST MODELS KEEP THE LID OVER
OUR CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...SO NOT GOING MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION HERE...AND NOT MENTIONING SEVERE.

WE COULD SNAG A NIGHT TIME STORM AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...BUT THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST BY
THE TIME THERE WILL BE ANY CHANCE OF THE LID BREAKING.

WE SHOULD GET SOMEWHAT OF A COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY WITH THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM
FRONT BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THEIR WAY UP
FOR FRIDAY. THE FRONT MAY BE JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FRIDAY TO GIVE
US A SHOT AT SOME CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SOME
MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT WEAKNESS POSSIBLE IN THE CAP. THIS MAY BE
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT WE BARELY HAVE A SCANT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN OUR NORTHERN CWA...SO I WILL NOT BE GOING OUT ON
MUCH OF A LIMB FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 09Z TAFS THROUGH 09Z EARLY SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

UPDATED TAF FOR KEAR AS STRATUS AT THE IFR LEVEL HAS DEVELOPED
AND IS RAPIDLY SURGING TO THE NORTH AND EAST. IF TRENDS CONTINUE
WILL NEED TO INCLUDE SOME IFR CLOUDS FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS
MORNING FOR KGRI ALSO.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...FAY


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