Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 282323
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
623 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A LARGE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LIFTS EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
THE LOCAL AREA. WHILE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPILL ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND ANOTHER
WARM DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

MODELS HAD TROUBLE HANDLING ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING...BUT
GIVEN ITS VERY ISOLATED NATURE...THIS WAS REALLY OF NO SURPRISE.
DO NOT ANTICIPATE A REPEAT TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK TOMORROW AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED FURTHER WEST...IN ADDITION
TO THE FACT WE WILL HAVE A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL CAP AND MEAGER
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LOCAL LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...SIDED TOWARDS
PERSISTENCE WITH BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON MONDAY.
THAT SAID...WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZIER TOMORROW...AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN. LATE IN THE DAY...CLOUDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO INCREASE...BUT WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z...PULLED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR WESTERN FRINGES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OTHER THAN A FEW SMALL TWEAKS TO TEMPS...CLOUD COVER AND
POPS...PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY IN TACT WITH ANOTHER
BEAUTIFUL EVENING EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FALL DAY
TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST POINTS WILL INCLUDE THE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE THE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH BEGINS
MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW. MODELS HAVE THE TROUGH
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED TUESDAY AS IT PASSES OVER THE ROCKIES. A
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS
DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT
BEFORE EXITING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGER
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS STRETCH OF WEATHER MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. CAPE IS VERY LIMITED DURING THIS TIME...WITH
AVERAGE MOST UNSTABLE VALUES RANGING FROM A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS
THE STRONGEST WITH ALMOST 2500 J/KG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DURING
THE SAME TIME THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE SHOWING ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED
J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE. THE NAM IS CLEARLY THE OUTLIER IN THIS
SITUATION. CONFIDENCE FOR RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT IS VERY HIGH. THERE
VERY WELL COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE OUTLOOK
AREA BUT I AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRI-CITES WHERE THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY BE SITUATED. IN SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS WE COULD HAVE WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH AND HAIL AROUND ONE INCH
IN DIAMETER. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXTREMELY HIGH AND THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
WITH THAT BEING SAID...TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. CAPE IS LIMITED BUT BOTH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ADEQUATE TO GET PERHAPS A COUPLE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. ANYTHING THAT LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND/OR
DEVELOPS THURSDAY WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS OVER THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN SEASONABLE TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SLOWLY COOL THROUGH THE WEEK UNTIL WE BEGIN A
WARMING TREND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LOWS OVER THIS TIME WILL
FOLLOW SIMILAR SUIT. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDING DOWNWARD FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT RECENT GUIDANCE IS NOW SUGGESTING WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE WERE SITTING CLOSE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE 40S IN THERE FOR
LOWS BUT THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND WE COULD SEE A SIMILAR
COOL TREND BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST
NIGHT DURING THE SHORT TERM. THESE LOWS SHOULD BE MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS FOR POTENTIAL FROST...ESPECIALLY OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. ORD WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TO GET DOWN TO 37
DEGREES...BUT THE RECENT FORECAST HAS 40 DEGREES IN THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WIND MAY GUST A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...GUERRERO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN


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