Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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697
FXUS63 KGID 301758
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1158 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1146 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Updated the forecast this afternoon to bring flurries farther
south as satellite and radar indicate this. Also, although HRRR
precipitation does not pick up on this well, HRRR reflectivity
product does pick up on this and agrees with the southward
extension. I also increased sky cover and dragged it south
compared to the previous forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 359 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Satellite imagery showing the main upper level low pressure system
continuing to spin off to the northeast, current sitting over
central MN. Though accumulating precipitation remain north of the
CWA, can`t rule out a few flurries through this morning, mainly
across northern portions of the CWA. Partly to mostly cloudy skies
are currently in place, not expecting much change in that through
sunrise. At the surface, still have occasionally gusty
northwesterly winds, as the CWA remains influenced by the surface
low over MN. Gusts are at times between 20-25 MPH.

Models are in good agreement showing that main upper low making a
continued eastward push through the short term period, moving into
western WI by 00Z and further through the Great Lakes/Ontario
areas through the overnight hours. Will continue to keep the
mention of flurries going across northern portions of the CWA
through the morning hours, with models showing a lobe of energy
associated with the low passing just off to the north-northeast.
Looking like cloud cover will be sticking around through the day,
especially across the northeastern 1/2 to 2/3 of the CWA. Through
the evening/overnight hours is when we start to see more clearing.

At the surface, with the tightened pressure gradient remaining
thanks to the sfc low over MN, expecting the breezy conditions to
continue through much of the day. Northwest winds with speeds of
20-25 MPH and gusts around 30 MPH expected once again. Later in
the day, and esp into this evening/overnight, the pressure
gradient starts to weaken, and speeds will start tapering off. As
far as temperatures go, not expecting a notable change from
yesterday, with mid-upper 30s forecast for highs across the north
and lower-mid 40s across the south. Forecast lows tonight look to
fall into the upper teens to lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 359 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Storm System Overview...

Thursday-Sunday The next storm system will dig south across the
far western portions of the United States near the coast line on
Thursday and into Mexico by Friday. This storm system will weaken
as it eventually tracks into Texas by Sunday or Monday and should
be a non-player for our forecast area. We will see some moisture
make it as far north as Kansas ahead of the larger scale trough,
but most of the moisture will remain well south with the cut off
low portion of the system. Therefore, will continue to call for
dry weather for 90 percent of our forecast area during the
Thursday through Sunday time frame.

Monday into Tuesday...The next big upper level trough will dig
across the rockies and could bring some rain or snow, but more
likely snow if anything to the forecast area by Monday night into
Tuesday. There is significant model disagreement and run to run
inconsistency. The 29/12z, 29/18z, and 30/00z deterministic runs
of the GFS were all snowier than a majority of the ensemble
members, thus they were more of a worst case scenerio. The 29/12z
ECMWF was also much stronger with this storm system and thus
snowier, but the 30/00z ECMWF run completely backed off and is
nearly dry. Thus confidence in the forecast during this time frame
is low and odds are currently better that we will see little if
any preciptiation.

Temperatures...Cold weather is on the way...

The jet stream will largely be on top of...or south of our
forecast area through the period. However, the really cold air
should stay up over Canada until Tuesday or Wednesday next week
when regardless of whether we see much snow, noticeably colder air
should invade the central Untied States. Highs will generally
range from the upper 30s into the 40s Thursday through Monday.
Highs just beyond the end of this forecast period may be stuck
below freezing for a few days, which has not yet happened this
year and we will have to keep an eye out for that cold.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Ceilings could be a bit tricky this afternoon as KGRI is
especially on the cusp of MVFR/VFR. Any MVFR ceilings should begin
lifting northeast this afternoon, as well as ceilings in general
by tonight. Wind speeds will remain stout through the afternoon,
and then ease up with decreasing surface pressure gradient and
low-level lapse rates.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Heinlein
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...Heinlein



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