000
FXUS63 KICT 211807
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
107 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Today...A hot and windy day is in store across the region. Low-
level thickness values will support high temperatures in the 90s
to near 100 degrees, hottest across central KS. Another round of
afternoon thunderstorm is expected to fire along an approaching
surface trough over western/northwest KS, with this activity
approaching central KS counties toward evening. Like yesterday,
instability and deep layer shear will support a handful of strong
to severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds into
central KS, although the highest severe risk will likely be over
western Kansas closest to initiation. Of note is slightly weaker
deep layer shear compared to yesterday, which may tend to limit
storm organization and/or hail threat very far east/southeast away
from the initiating surface boundary.

Thursday...One more day of hot weather Thursday, with another
chance of late afternoon and evening thunderstorms over mainly
northern and western KS, as a strong cold front approaches from
the north. Once again, and handful of strong/severe storms are
possible into the evening.

Friday...The cool-down begins Friday with highs in the 80s, as
Canadian high pressure starts building in from the north. Could
see a few showers/thunderstorms throughout the day Friday, as a
zone of mid-level lift sinks south across the Plains.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Saturday-Monday...Much cooler weather will continue Saturday-
Monday, as Canadian high pressure builds south across Mid-America.
High temperatures will be in the 70s- 80s, with mostly 70s
expected Sunday. Overnight lows will be in the 50s to low 60s.
There are chances for off-and-on showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms Saturday-Sunday, as the mid-level baroclinic zone
sets up over the Heartland. ECMWF is most aggressive with this
scenario Saturday, although there is quite a bit of uncertainty
surrounding precipitation chances this weekend between the
operational models.

Tuesday and beyond...Medium range consensus builds the heat and
wind back by mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Southerly winds of 20 to 30 knots will persist through early
evening before diminishing while remaining breezy overnight.
Storms developing across western KS may approach portions of
central KS this evening before diminishing, with the bulk of
activity remaining west of the area where better instability is
progged.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    94  69  92  70 /   0  10   0  10
Hutchinson      95  70  94  68 /  10  10   0  20
Newton          93  69  91  68 /   0  10   0  20
ElDorado        91  67  89  68 /   0  10   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   93  68  91  70 /   0   0   0  10
Russell         98  70  98  64 /  20  30  10  40
Great Bend      98  70  96  65 /  20  20   0  30
Salina          97  71  97  67 /  10  20   0  30
McPherson       95  70  95  67 /  10  20   0  20
Coffeyville     92  67  89  70 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         92  67  89  69 /   0   0   0  10
Iola            92  67  89  69 /   0  10   0  10
Parsons-KPPF    92  67  89  70 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...MWM