Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 160451
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1151 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017

20Z water vapor imagery shows upper ridging along the Rockies with
an upper low over the Gulf of Alaska and an upper trough
approaching the Pacific Northwest coast. At the surface, high
pressure was centered over the southern MS river valley with low
pressure along the lee of the middle and northern Rockies. The
strengthening pressure gradient has allowed southerly winds to
become gusty around 30 MPH this afternoon across central KS.

For tonight through Friday, low level moisture should be on the
increase across south central and southeast KS with persistent
southerly winds advecting warm air north. NAM and GFS forecast
soundings continue to show stratus developing and moving into the
area by mid morning Thursday and lingering over southeast KS
through the morning Friday before a cold front moves south across
the state. There are mixed signals from the models on whether
there will be any vertical motion within the stratus for some
drizzle to develop. The NAM is most aggressive with the possible
drizzle while the GFS shows little if any vertical motion. Because
of the differences, have decided to keep any mention of drizzle
out of the forecast for now. Meanwhile a shortwave moving across
the upper mid west should push a cold front through the area
Friday. Models have trended faster with the frontal passage and
generally keep an impressive cap over the low level moisture.
Because large scale forcing with the front is not that
impressive, think lift alone may not be enough to overcome the
capping inversion. However some solutions develop some QPF across
southeastern KS as the front pushes into OK, which could simple be
from the low level saturation and the models trying to squeeze
out some drizzle or light rain. So have some small POPs through
the afternoon. Once the boundary moves through, dry air from the
north should help clear out the skies and remove any chances for
precip. Much warmer temps are anticipated for central KS with good
warm air advection. Models warm 925MB temps to around 21C which
is supportive of the current forecast of upper 70s and maybe even
a few 80 degree readings. East central KS is forecast to only warm
into the lower 60s due to mostly cloudy skies limiting
insolation. Highs Friday look to be in the mid 60s to lower 70s
as there doesn`t appear to be a great deal of cold air behind the
front.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017|

Saturday through Sunday looks to be dry with temps warming once
again as upper ridging sets up over the central plains and
southerly low level winds redevelop. Sunday looks to be the
warmest day with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. There is some
potential for temps to be a little to warm across southeast KS as
the GFS again wants to bring a stratus deck north with the low
level moisture return.

Another frontal boundary is progged to move through on Monday,
again will little synoptic scale forcing for precip. So POPs are
generally in the 10 percent range with the frontal passage. Upper
ridging is expected to redevelop by Tuesday as an upper system
digs into southern CA. The general trend in the models has been to
move this system east slower than what the 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM
depicted. Have introduced some chance POPs into the forecast for
Wednesday expecting this system to approach the plains. However if
models continue to trend slower, precip chances may actually be
more likely Wednesday night or Thursday. Temps should trend cooler
for next week as weak high pressure at the surface passes through,
but continue to look mild with highs in the 60s and 70s.Lows are
forecast to be in the upper 30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017

An increase in near surface/boundary layer moisture toward and
after 12z/Thu is expected to result in MVFR stratus/stratocu cigs
across south central and southeast Kansas, though
scouring/lifting out across south central Kansas by midday/early
afternoon. South winds will also increase on Thursday across the
entire area and become gusty. Lower MVFR stratus cigs should again
expand north and west across south central Kansas Thursday night.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017

Fire danger concerns will be elevated Thu and especially Sun.

South winds will be on the increase Thu across the entire area
with sustained speeds in the 20-25 mph range with higher gusts.
RH values Thu afternoon will range from around 25% over areas
along and west of Highway 14 to the 50s over southeast KS.
Currently going with very high fire danger for most of south
central KS into the Flint Hills Thu afternoon.

Fire conditions on Sun appear to be a bit more critical as very
warm temps will keep RH values in the 30-40% range with gusty
south winds. Grassland fire danger values are currently in the
upper end of the very high category and may increase if we
continue to raise high temps Sun.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    39  73  51  70 /   0  10  10  10
Hutchinson      39  75  49  69 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          38  71  50  67 /   0  10  10  10
ElDorado        39  70  52  69 /  10  10  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   41  73  53  72 /  10  10  10  10
Russell         38  81  44  67 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      39  79  45  68 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          39  76  49  68 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       39  74  48  68 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     37  65  54  72 /  10  10  10  20
Chanute         35  65  53  70 /  10  10  10  20
Iola            35  64  52  69 /  10  10  10  20
Parsons-KPPF    36  65  54  71 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TOP
LONG TERM...TOP
AVIATION...KED



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