Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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493
FXUS63 KICT 110550
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1150 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

PRONOUNCED COMPRESSIONAL WARMING HAS BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL
& SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...WHERE W-NW 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS HAVE BEEN
COMBINING WITH SUN-DRENCHED SKIES TO SEND TEMPS SOARING INTO THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IN MANY AREAS W OF I-135.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

TONIGHT & THU:
A BROAD INVERTED CANADIAN SFC RIDGE THAT THIS AFTERNOON IS ALIGNED
WITH THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER WILL PUNCH S/SE ACROSS THE UPPER
MS VALLEY & GREAT LAKES REGIONS. WHILE THESE AREAS CATCH THE BRUNT
OF THE CANADIAN AIRMASS INJECTION...THE ONSETTING COLD ADVECTION
BENEATH ~1,000FT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INDUCE V-E-R-Y L-O-W STRATUS
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NW CORRIDOR OF THE KICT CWA VERY EARLY THU
MORNING. (RUSSELL, BARTON & LINCOLN COUNTIES.) TO `AIR` ON THE SIDE
OF CAUTION HAVE ASSIGNED "PATCHY FOG" TO THESE AREAS TILL ~9AM THU.
AS THE BROAD INVERTED CANADIAN RIDGE CONTINUES TO SURGE SE ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY THU AFTERNOON...A NE/SW TEMP GRADIENT WOULD SET UP
ACROSS KS. WITH THE NLY LOWER-DECK FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL & SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS QUICKLY SHIFTING TO THE S/SW EARLY THU AFTERNOON THE
STRATUS WOULD SCOUR FROM CENTRAL KS DURING THIS PERIOD...SOON
ENOUGH FOR TEMPS IN THESE AREAS TO REBOUND INTO THE 45-50F RANGE.

THU NIGHT-SAT:
EVEN STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER
SASKATCHEWAN & MANITOBA LATE THU NIGHT WILL THEN SPREAD S/SE
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS FRI & FRI NIGHT THEN ACROSS THE UPPER & MID-
MS VALLEY ON SAT. WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE THIS WEEKEND A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED NE-SW TEMP GRADIENT WOULD
DOMINATE. THE GRADIENT WOULD SHARPEN FRI NIGHT & SAT AS THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS SPILLS ACROSS THE MO & MID-MS VALLEYS. HAVE LOWERED SAT`S
MAXES FOR ALL AREAS....ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE CWA
WHERE LOWER-MID 30S ARE NOW ASSIGNED.)

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

SUN-MON NIGHT:
A LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW MIXTURE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NEARLY ALL AREAS
GENERALLY E OF I-135 SUN MORNING WITH A CHANGE TO ALL LIGHT RAIN
SUN AFTERNOON AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SPRINTS SE FROM THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS TO THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE GFS & ECMWF WITH THE LATTER DEPICTING A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER-
DECK WAVE SCOOTING SE ACROSS TX & OK SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE WAVE
STRENGTHENING FURTHER AS IT DIGS ACROSS THE ERN RED RIVER ON MON.
CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGING THAT`LL
MOVE E ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN BROADENING AS
IT SPREADS TOWARD THE PLAINS MON NIGHT & TUE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY
FAVORED. REGARDLESS...ALL LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE VACATED THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

TUE-WED:
WITH A 2ND (& STRONGER) UPPER-DECK RIDGE CROSSING THE PACIFIC COAST
ON TUE THEN ACROSS THE ROCKIES TUE NIGHT & WED WARMER WEATHER WOULD
RETURN TO THE REGION AS LOWER-DECK FLOW SHIFTS FROM A WLY TO A SWLY
COMPONENT AS MID-WEEK APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VERY LATE
TONIGHT FM THE NW IN WAKE OF A BACKDOOR FRONT. LATEST SATELLITE
LOOPS SHOW LOW CLOUDS IN EXTREME NORTHEAST CORNER OF KS...SIMILAR
TO 00Z NAM AND LATEST RAP. THIS IS CLOSE TO 00Z TIMING AT
KRSL/KSLN AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS AT OTHER SITES. DOES APPEAR THAT
KHUT/KICT MAY BE GRAZED BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO BKN.
SOUTHERN END OF CLOUD BANK HAS BEEN VFR BUT...STILL THINK MVFR IS
MOST PROBABLE GIVEN UP SLOPE COMPONENT AND CLIMATOLOGY. SLOWED
BURN OFF SLIGHTLY GIVEN BOTH WEAK AND UPSLOPE FLOW AT KRSL/KSLN.
NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE THRU KRSL/KSLN/KGBD AND KHUT NEAR END OF
FCST. -HOWERTON

&&
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE THU & FRI AS A CANADIAN
AIRMASS PUNCHES S/SE ACROSS THE UPPER & MID-MS VALLEY. THE MUCH
COOLER AIR WOULD LOWER THE GRASSLAND FIRE CONSIDERABLY THE REST OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    29  47  31  50 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      28  48  31  47 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          28  46  31  47 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        28  46  30  48 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   30  49  31  51 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         27  47  31  45 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      29  51  32  47 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          27  45  31  45 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       28  46  31  46 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     27  46  29  48 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         25  43  28  46 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            24  41  27  44 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    26  45  28  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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