Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 220438
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1138 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A PLEASANT DAY ACROSS KANSAS...WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING OVER
EASTERN COLORADO. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
CLOUDS ARE INCREASING OVER WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES HAVE BEEN PRESENT THROUGHOUT KANSAS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
60S WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM IS ABUNDANT
PRECIPITATION AND FLOODING.

A SYSTEM IS BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHWEST OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS SYSTEM HAS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF VORTICITY THAT WILL
BREAK OFF OF IT AND MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH WILL HELP TO
SPARK OUR ACTIVE PERIOD. PLEASE SEE THE HYDRO SECTION FOR A MORE
DETAILED DISCUSSION ON THE RAIN/FLOODING CONCERNS.

TONIGHT - FRIDAY:
THE FIRST OF THE DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARDS
KANSAS TONIGHT...SPARKING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION DOWN INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS SLIGHTLY..CLOSER TO 09Z-12Z RATHER THAN
06-09Z. THE FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE OVER DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON EXITING TO THE EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS THIS IS
HAPPENING...LEE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
RETURN AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BECOME MORE PLENTIFUL.

FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY:
BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MORE
PLENTIFUL...ALLOWING FOR MORE INSTABILITY AND THUS MORE
THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY TRACK EASTWARD
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BY LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY...EXPECT THE
MAIN AXIS OF PRECIPITATION TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS...DRYING
OUT TO SOME EXTENT OVER CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY:
BY THIS PERIOD...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1.5 SO
STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES
WILL CONTINUE TO TOWARDS THE AREA AND AT THIS TIME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE TRAINING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE POTENTIAL OF UP TO 2-3 INCHES COULD FALL
DURING THIS PERIOD OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

TOTAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD COULD SEE UPWARDS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHICH WILL EXACERBATE FLOODING
CONCERNS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE HYDRO ORIENTED.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE DRIER...BUT ANOTHER CHANCE ON MONDAY NIGHT.
OTHER THAN THAT THERE ARE PERIOD CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES MOVING OVER THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DISCREPANCIES WITH THE GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED SO HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION DETAILS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT IS
PROGGED TO LIFT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. A LARGE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST
ARRIVING AFTER 09-10Z AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST 19-21Z.
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY
LOWER FRIDAY EVENING WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE HYDROLOGIC
CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN ABUNDANCE OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ARE ANTICIPATED BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY...BUT THE
BRUNT OF THE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST KANSAS...SOUTH OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE ACROSS
THE FLINT HILLS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. POSSIBLE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER CENTRAL KANSAS
SOUTH TO A HARPER...NEWTON...MARION LINE. 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN
ARE POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF THAT LINE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WITH
THE MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FLOODING WILL OCCUR EASILY. THE
RAINS WILL IMPACT RECREATIONAL ACTIVITIES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
ALL SHOULD HAVE A WAY TO RECEIVE WARNINGS SHOULD FLASH FLOODING
OCCUR. ALSO EXPECT QUICK RUNOFF INTO RIVER BASINS AND RISES ON
SOUTHEAST RIVERS. SOME RIVERS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT RISES WHICH
MAY ALSO IMPACT RECREATIONAL ACTIVITIES ALONG THE RIVERS AND ALL
PARTIES SHOULD BE BE PREPARED TO RECEIVE WARNINGS SHOULD A RIVER
FLOOD WARNING BE ISSUED. HAVE HELD OFF OF ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WARNING AT THIS TIME...BUT DO EXPECT ONE TO BE ISSUED WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...MAINLY FOR AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    50  61  55  67 /  30  80  60  70
HUTCHINSON      48  61  55  66 /  40  80  60  60
NEWTON          47  60  52  65 /  30  70  60  60
ELDORADO        48  61  53  67 /  20  80  60  70
WINFIELD-KWLD   50  61  53  70 /  30  80  60  70
RUSSELL         47  60  54  67 /  50  70  60  50
GREAT BEND      48  60  54  66 /  60  80  70  50
SALINA          49  62  55  66 /  20  60  60  50
MCPHERSON       47  60  54  66 /  30  70  60  60
COFFEYVILLE     48  65  53  74 /  20  80  50  70
CHANUTE         47  65  53  71 /  10  80  50  70
IOLA            47  65  53  70 /  10  60  50  60
PARSONS-KPPF    48  65  54  73 /  10  80  50  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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