245
FXUS63 KICT 070559
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1259 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms late this afternoon into early evening across mainly
  southern KS with additional storms coming out of northwest KS
  tonight.

- Another round of storms coming off of the High Plains for Mon
night into Tuesday morning.

- Seasonal temperatures continue with above normal highs
  expected for Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Currently have some shortwave energy moving into the Southern
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, another upper impulse is
sliding across the Northern Plains. Weak cold front extends from
Central MO to near KICT and into southwest KS.

Storms are expected to continue to develop along the front this
afternoon and sag south into the early evening, mainly affecting
southern and southeast KS. Damaging downburst winds, small hail
and pockets of heavy rain will continue to be the main threats.
Additional convection is expected to develop over southwest
Nebraska/NW KS early this evening and slide east overnight. Not
sure how far east storms will make it as there is decent model
consensus that they start to wane as they approach the western
flank of our forecast area. So for now will run with the highest
pops west of I-135 tonight. Confidence is low with regards to
convection during the day Mon. Moisture isn`t going anywhere, so
we will remain very unstable with minimal capping. Feel the
best chance for daytime storms would be for them do develop
along some remnant outflow or just east of a remnant MCV from
storms tonight. With low confidence, will not hit pops too hard.
Better storm chances will arrive Mon night as a weak upper
impulse lifts out of Central Great Basin, across the Central
Rockies and out across the Central Plains by late Mon afternoon.
Storms should first develop over central/southern Nebraska
early Mon evening, and race south and southeast overnight,
affecting most of our area after 06z Tue. Damaging downburst
winds and hail up to nickel size look to be the main threats
with this complex of storms Mon night.

We may see a few storms linger Tuesday morning, especially across
eastern KS. However after Tue, we should see an overall
decrease in storm chances through Thu, as upper ridging builds
to our southwest. Storm chances will then ramp back-up starting
Thu night into Fri as a series of impulses track across the
Central Plains, with a more potent shortwave forecast to slide
across the Northern Plains Fri, and should push a front down
into our area.

Prior to Thursday, temps look fairly seasonal for this time of year,
with a slight bump in highs for Thu with mid and upper 90s a good
bet. There is a good chance we will see cooler highs for Fri and
especially Sat as the front pushes down into our area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Challenges:
1) Potential for fog Monday AM in southern KS

2)Chances/location of storms Monday afternoon-evening

The complex of showers and storms should stay across western
Kansas for the overnight hours as is occurring based on radar
trends; some of the cloud cover could move into the western
sites (KRSL and KGBD). Light and variable winds should persist.
These light winds and available moisture from the evening
precipitation could lead to fog development across southern
Kansas into the morning hours. There is less confidence in the
occurrence at the TAF sites given rainfall amounts at those
locations with higher confidence outside of the vicinity; KCNU
would probably have the best chance given higher rainfall in the
neighboring county. It was decided to leave out the mention at
this time though. Another chance of afternoon showers and storms
exists with short term models highlighting central and southeast
Kansas by mid afternoon which is earlier than previously
thought. Since there is some uncertainty, a PROB30 was used to
at least have a mention for now. This may be changed with
upcoming issuances.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...VJP