Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 231750

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
150 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Issued at 150 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Very warm conditions will continue through Tuesday with high
temperatures 85 to 90. Markedly cooler air will build into the
region late week as a series of cold fronts move through the area.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Sunday)
Issued at 150 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Little substantive change this period as broad ridging sfc and aloft
recenter through the ern OH valley. While low level thermal trough
holds firm...backed sfc flow continues to draw in considerably drier
air and expect to see about a cat lower dewpoints tomorrow aftn.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 150 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Deep wrn trough will bifurcate late Mon with primary impulse lifting
out through ND as leftovers cutoff over srn AZ. Shallow/frontolytic
nature of cold frontal boundary with ewd extent not to mention
timing bodes little support to continue with low chc pops and will
drop with this fcst cycle.

Secondary sw trough follows and sharply amplifies sewd through the
wrn lakes Fri with a more substantial cold push lingering into Sat.
Will follow the blend here wrt pops esp up near lake MI as
substantial lake aggregate trough expected to develop supporting a
good chance for lake effect rain showers particularly Fri night into
Sat morning. Will generally undercut temps DYS7-8 given GFS/EC 850
mb temps crashing to near 0C and quite the contrast to todays 20C


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 104 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Sfc high pressure centered over the lower Grtlks expected to
remain nearly stnry through Sunday resulting in light e-se flow
across nrn IN. Drier air in low levels progged to advect nw into
our area tonight, which should limit br/fg development to less
than that of this morning when both SBN/FWA briefly had mvfr
vsbys. Visible imagery indicates cu field developing over central
IN/IL attm. Airmass quite warm aloft so just expecting a few
diurnal cu at the terminals.





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