Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 232309
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
609 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 604 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

Widespread significant flooding will continue over northwest
Indiana and southwest lower Michigan with record crests on several
rivers. Rain will return to the area late tonight, mainly south of
Route 6 and overspread the area during the day Saturday. A wintry
mixremains possible Saturday morning along and north of Route 6.
Additional rainfall will have limited impacts on river levels at
this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 340 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

Surge of isentropic lift and moisture still expected to move into
southern areas tonight, but looks to be slower with band of
precip currently almost to the Ohio river into NW Arkansas.
Greatest chances through 12Z Sat and even into much of the day
Saturday will likely remain near/south of US 6 and possible even
to US-24 given a few of the model trends. Main push of precip for
all areas still appears to be more Sat night as strong upper
trough finally ejects out of the SW states. Heaviest axis of
rainfall still looks to remain over SE areas and even there
amounts may not be as high as previously advertised. As a result,
overall river forecasts should remain unchanged with rainfall at
most delaying cresting/falling of levels.

With regards to mixed precipitation late tonight into Saturday
morning soundings would suggest at least a brief window for
rain/snow mix vs earlier concerns of freezing rain along and north
of US 6. Still concerned there could be a touch of ice but will
all depend on how fast precip arrives in the north and sfc temps,
which are now forecasted to be a bit higher overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 340 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

Much needed breather in store starting Sunday into mid week as
overall flow deamplifies somewhat. There will be a fast moving,
weak and moisture starved disturbance Sunday night, but no pops
warranted. Little in the way of cold air behind either system with
500 mb heights quickly increasing with highs well into the 50s by
Tues and Weds.

One more dynamic system looks to impact the region late in the
period. Models varying greatly on strength and speed with GFS
much stronger and faster with swath of rain mainly across SE
areas Weds into Thursday. ECMWF slower (Thurs into Fri) and brings
quick shot of rain to everyone. Afternoon forecast leans towards
GFS at this point, but wouldn`t be surprised if a slower trend
evolves.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 604 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

IFR/LIFR cigs will persist through the first 12 to 18 hours of the
forecast. CIGS will lift after 12Z as rainfall spread northward
through the region. Boundary layer winds will increase and shift
to an easterly direction overnight with peak winds between 4 and 9
UTC.
&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lewis
SHORT TERM...Fisher
LONG TERM...Fisher
AVIATION...Lewis


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