Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 010411
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1211 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY
FROM OUR AREA OVERNIGHT CAUSING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND CLEARING SKIES EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S... WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

STRONG WINDS AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO BEGIN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY TRANSITION TO QUIETER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.

UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIP SOUTHWARD TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. SHARP LOW LEVEL
TROUGH ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH
RESULTED IN SOME 60+ MPH WIND GUSTS FOR A FEW MARINE LOCATIONS
EARLIER TODAY AND WIND GUSTS IN THE 50 MPH TO 60 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE. DID ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR BERRIEN AND LA PORTE
COUNTIES EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL LET THIS CONTINUE WITH
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THE WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES IN EFFECT THROUGH
00Z WILL ALSO REMAIN INTACT WITH NO CHANGE ANTICIPATED.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AIDING IN TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS BY
00Z. AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST
INDIANA MAY BE THE LAST AREA TO SWITCH OVER TO ALL SNOW
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH BY THIS TIME MORE VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY BEGIN
TO TAKE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED FOCUS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ACROSS REMAINDER OF THE AREA...ELONGATED SYNOPTIC VORT MAX
ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA/SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND BECOME INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY MID/UPPER
LEVEL DEFORMATION. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING AS
THE UPPER PV ANOMALY SHIFTS INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH TROWAL-LIKE FEATURE AND SOUTHWARD DIGGING
OF UPPER WAVE PROMOTING PROLONGED FORCING...WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW TENTHS ACROSS EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA ALSO. ANY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY
ON GRASSY AREAS.

LATER THIS EVENING...MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
AFFECT AREAS ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE WILL
MAINTAIN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR EAST OVERNIGHT DUE
TO DIGGING NATURE OF AFOREMENTIONED WAVE. A FEW SNOW FLURRIES MAY
PERSIST ACROSS THE FAR EAST EARLY SATURDAY...WITH DIMINISHING
CLOUDS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
EASTERN AREAS MAY BE A BIT SLOW TO CLEAR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS TO PERSIST SATURDAY DUE TO LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH REMAINING ANCHORED ACROSS THE AREA...SUPPORTING
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

UPR PATTN ACRS NOAM IN A STATE OF EXTREME FLUX THIS PD AS INITIAL
DEEP TROUGH DVLPG ALG THE EAST COAST LIFTS OUT THROUGH THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. WHAT FOLLOWS EARLY ON THIS PD IS A RELAXATION INTO
LARGELY ZONAL FLW ACRS THE CONUS. HWVR FULL GAMUT OF 12Z GUIDANCE
HAS SHIFTED GEARS SIGLY W/SECONDARY SHARP TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACRS
THE ERN LAKES/NEW ENGLAND LT PD.

REGARDLESS EARLY PD WILL SEE SIG TEMP MODERATION AS SHRT AMPLITUDE
RIDGING BLDS BACK IN BY MON. FAIRLY STOUT LL THERMAL RIDGE WITHIN
INCREASING SWRLY FLW WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK TO JUST ABV NORMAL AND
WILL WARM PRIOR TEMPS A BIT MORE IN LIGHT OF AT LEAST 10C H85 TEMPS.
PRIMARY WX MAKER WILL BE NEW SW WRAPPING UP OFF COAST OF NRN CA
WHICH WILL GRAVITATE INLAND FRI NIGHT. PART OF THIS WILL BREAKOUT
NEWD INTO SRN CANADA BY MON AND PROPEL ANOTHER CDFNT EWD INTO THE
WRN LAKES/OH VALLEY BY TUE. GIVEN ROBUST LL MSTR RTN AND FNTL
DYNAMICS WILL CONT GENERAL LIKELY POPS IN THE TUE TIME FRAME. HWVR
IN CONTEXT OF MODEL IMPLIED SECONDARY DEEP TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACRS
THE ERN US TWD FRI...WILL MAKE SUBSTANTIAL CHGS IN LT PDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW DEEPENING ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST IS EXPECTED TO CONT TO IMPACT KFWA WITH MAINLY MVFR
CIGS OVERNIGHT. BAND OF SNOW WITH IFR CONDITIONS OVER NW OH WAS MOVG
WESTWARD BUT EARLIER ECHOES DISSIPATED OVER NE INDIANA AFTER
ENCOUNTERING DRIER AIR IN MID LEVELS SO PLAN TO LEAVE SNOW MENTION
OUT OF TAF. STILL CONSIDERABLE STRATO CU UPSTREAM OF KSBN OVER LWR
MI. EXPECT THESE LOW VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AT KSBN THROUGH THE
NGT WITH CLEARING EXPECTED EARLY SAT MORNING. THIS DRIER AIR NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH FWA AND CLEAR OUT LOW CIGS UNTIL AFTN. STRONG
NORTH WINDS SHOULD GRDLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY... THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE SAT EVE AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR INZ003.

MI...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...JT


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