Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 251749

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
149 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Upper level disturbances will move northeast along a stationary
front this weekend and bring chances for showers and storms
through Sunday. Rain will become more widespread Sunday as the
upper low moves over the area. Highs south of the front over much
of northern Indiana will reach the 60s to around 70s today, with
only 40s and 50s north of the front.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

A deep upper low was over eastern Oklahoma early this morning
with a stationary front extending northeast from the associated
surface low into northwest Indiana. The marine layers of both Lake
Michigan and Lake Erie were accentuating the cold air behind the
front given lake water temperatures in the 30s. Have lowered highs
in the northeast corner of the forecast area from Hillsdale to
Wauseon where an east flow was spreading chilly air west. Given
this scenario, these northeast highs may still be too warm.
Otherwise, impulses from the upper low will move northeast and
bring more showers and storms to the area, especially over
northwest Indiana and far southwest Lower Michigan. The upper low
should lift over the forecast area by late Sunday favoring
widespread showers and storms. Severe weather is not expected,
but locally heavy rainfall may cause limited flooding.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

A series of upper level system will eject northeast out of the main
upper trof this upcoming week and bring several chances for rain
through Friday. The best chances for rain over the forecast area at
this time will coincide with the arrival of these short wave trofs
and appear to be Monday night and then Thursday through Friday.
Temperatures will be above normal each day with a high chance for
readings staying above freezing all of next week. Severe weather
chances appear low, but rainfall amounts this upcoming week may
total more than an inch.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 139 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Distinct warm front located near both taf sites with KFWA in the
warm sector and KSBN in the cooler air. Area of showers and
isolated storms have shifted north of both sites, which may allow
for a mainly dry afternoon. Hi res models still suggest
development of additional showers and storms late afternoon into
tonight as low pressure moves closer. VFR conditions have
dominated past few hours and present indications are (albeit low
confidence) that return to MVFR/IFR conditions may wait until
after 6Z. No mention of thunder has been added, but threat will be
there and may warrant at least a VCTS mention if indications of
development are apparent.




SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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