Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 080555
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
155 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A COOLER AND LESS HUMID NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEDNESDAY WILL
START OUT DRY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURNING IN THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH LITTLE REMAINING INSTABILITY ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WENT WITH AN ISO T MENTION THROUGH 00Z ACROSS THE FAR
SE FORECAST AREA.

FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH PRECIP GRADUALLY
ENDING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SKY COVER WILL VARY FROM MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OVERNIGHT. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS MIN T FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT...STILL EXPECTING LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE BACK NORTH INTO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY...IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE EJECTING
NE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FORECAST REFLECTS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. DECENT
MOISTURE RETURN IS NOTED INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF
THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z. THEREFORE...WENT WITH POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE THROUGH 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

POTENT SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE OVR W TX THIS AFTN WILL
LIFT OUT INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT. AGGRESSIVE THETA-E
ADVTN NWD OF POLEWARD OF 50KT LLJ SHLD PROMOTE VIGOROUS ASCENT
OVERTOP NWD RTNG FNTL BNDRY AND XPC WIDESPREAD RAIN/EMBEDDED
THUNDER AS A RESULT. THUS BRIDGED POPS HIGHER ALL AREAS
W/POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN ESP SHLD CLOSED LOW
LVL CYCLONIC CIRC INDEED DVLP AS MANY MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW.

OTRWS THIS SYS QUICKLY EXISTS NEWD ON THU AND MINORS OUT IN
PREVAILING DOWNSTREAM ZONAL FLW. DIFFICULT TEMP FCST W/LINGERING BUT
DECAYING CLD CVR IN THE AFTN AND POST FNTL CAA WEDGE YET KEPT
W/PRIOR NOTION OF GENERALLY MID 70S.

BRIEF LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING FOLLOWS THROUGH FRI BFR GIVING WAY TO
ANOTHER SW DISTURBANCE EJECTING NEWD OUT OF WRN US TROUGH. POP
DETAILS REMAIN QUITE MURKY FM MID-LT PD W/SIG DETAIL DIFFS NOTED AMG
MED RANGE GUIDANCE SUITE. AS SUCH ESSENTIALLY SMOOTHED BLENDED
SOLUTION TO ELIMINATE NOISE BUT RETAIN OTRWS IMPLIED UNSETTLED TONE
ESP IN LIGHT OF PENCHANT FOR A RING OF FIRE PATTN TO DVLP ALG NE
PERIPHERY OF RETROGRADING UPR RIDGE. WITHIN THIS
TRANSITION...SEASONABLE WARM TEMPS XPCD TO RTN THIS WEEKEND AND
BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 020-025 ACRS NERN IN OTHERWISE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE FURTHER DETERIORATION UNTIL MUCH LATER IN FORECAST PD.
FOCUS ON SHARP FRONTAL WAVE TO PUSH ENEWD THROUGH CENTRAL IL IN
LATE 6 HRS OF TAF PD. HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT AND STRONGLY
FORCED PARCEL ASCENT ABOVE COOL SHALLOW/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
FOSTER RAPID TOP/DOWN SATURATION...WITH CIGS LIKELY FURTHER
DETERIORATING INTO IFR RANGE NEAR/JUST BEYOND END OF CRNT FORECAST
VALID END TIME AT KFWA/KSBN RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MURPHY


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