Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 140646

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
146 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

Issued at 138 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

Lingering light snow and flurries across northeast Indiana and
northwest Ohio will diminish during the overnight hours. Skies
will clear or partially clear across the area overnight, with the
exception closer to Lake Michigan across northwest Indiana and
extreme southwest Lower Michigan where lake effect clouds and
lake effect snow showers are expected to develop later this
morning into early this afternoon. Snow accumulations with the
lake effect are expected to be minor, with the more notable lake
effect accumulations likely confined to extreme northwest
Indiana. Otherwise, cold conditions can be expected today with
highs from 20 across south central Lower Michigan, to around 30
across west central Indiana. Additional light rain and snow is
expected this weekend with another system that will move through.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 326 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

Another in a series of clipper type of systems will race across
the area tonight. The surface low should track near the
Michigan/Indiana border. The best chance for accumulating snow is
north of the low track. South of this area over most of northern
Indiana and northwest Ohio, have trended snow amounts down where
very dry air entrainment, max upward velocity outside of the
dendritic zone and warmer boundary level temperatures may greatly
limit snowfall. Gut feeling is that it will be hard to get more
than an inch of snow accumulation southwest of a Laporte to Warsaw
to Lima line. The front will race across the area this evening,
with sustained winds briefly around 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph.
Have decided not to issue a wind advisory due to the short nature
of this event; which could best be handled in a Special Weather
Statement. Otherwise, the system will race out of the area early
tonight, with lake effect snow showers developing over the far
west part of the area. Snowfall amounts over far west Laporte
county should be generally up to 2 inches.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

One more fast moving system should bring some light snow
accumulations to the northern portion of the area Thursday night
and Friday. Snowfall amounts should generally be under 2 inches.
After this system passes, milder weather will follow with high
temperatures rising well above freezing as the upper level flow
becomes more high zonal. Weak systems may bring a light mix of
precipitation early next week, but heavy snow is not expected.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1255 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

Skies have partially cleared across northern Indiana due to strong
synoptic subsidence behind departing short wave, although KSBN
will likely remain on eastern periphery of low cloud deck due to
increasing lake influence overnight. Did include tempo MVFR cigs
at KSBN but possibility does exist that KSBN could remain
scattered with bulk of lake effect clouds to the west. Variable
conditions between VFR/MVFR anticipated at KFWA over the next
several hours before subsidence wins out with trend to clearing
skies toward daybreak. Winds should also diminish overnight as sfc
reflection shifts off to the east. Quiet weather expected the
remainder of the period with only notable concern on evolution of
far northwest Indiana lake effect band. Confidence in this band
reaching KSBN is very low at this time and will continue to omit
mention with the 06Z TAFs.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LMZ043-046.



SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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