Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 280016
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
816 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A cold front will swing through tonight bringing much cooler air
in for Tuesday. Lows tonight will fall into the upper 50s to mid
60s...with highs on Tuesday only reaching the low to mid 70s. The
rest of the work week into next weekend will remain mainly dry
with temperatures averaging slightly below normal.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 809 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Cold front has just about cleared southern portions of the
forecast area. Latest radar data, suggesting a few showers trying
to develop across Van Wert/Wells county. Given high based nature
of this development, it might be a more a virga situation at this
time. An isolated shower will remain possible across the extreme
southeast through about 0100Z or 0130Z, but coverage and
probability at any one specific point still appears too low for
mentionable PoPs. Updated forecast will be sent around 0030Z to
refresh late afternoon wording and perhaps slow southward post-
frontal clouds a bit, but otherwise no notable changes to the
going forecast anticipated at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Late This Afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Secondary sfc cold front now just entering the southern Great Lakes
will push through the local area late this afternoon and early
evening. There has been just enough residual near surface moisture
and ample insolation (temps in upper 80s) to push SBCAPE values near
1000 j/kg (centered near the US-24 corridor). Overall weak
convergence/forcing with shallow sfc portion of front and dearth of
deeper layer moisture precludes a mentionable PoP for mid-late
afternoon. However, if any isolated showers would fire it would most
likely occur along/south of the US 30/24 corridors in IN/OH 19-22z.

Tonight into early Tuesday with feature the main surge of cooler air
as trailing mid-level trough axis from parent wave lifting into
Quebec swings through the Great Lakes region. There should be a
period of post-frontal BKN/OVC stratocu as associated moisture
pivots through later tonight into the Tuesday. Dry otherwise with
high temps on Tuesday significantly cooler in the low-mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A quiet weather pattern will take residence mid week through early
next week as the flow pattern transitions to a quasi northwest
flow regime. This will for the most part keep an active
instability/theta-e gradient well south-southwest of the region
through the period. The only real threat for a brief period of
rain/thunder will come Thursday Night into Friday as a vort lobe
rotates southeast on southern fringe of a larger scale negative
height anomaly centered near the Quebec/Ontario. Otherwise, expect
temperatures to remain near to slightly below average with low
humidity levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 809 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Drier low level air will continue to advect southward across the
area this evening behind a cold front. A few showers appear to be
trying to develop along this front, but any additional
development is expected to remain southeast of KFWA. Northwest
post-frontal winds of 10 to 15 knots will subside to around 5
knots after 02Z, with diurnal mixing increasing winds back into
the 10 to 15 knot range for Tuesday afternoon, with a few gusts to
20 knots possible. Only minor tweak was to slightly delay timing
of post-frontal MVFR stratocu a few hours, with best chance of
MVFR stratocu in the 10Z-17Z timeframe before bases mix back up to
VFR levels.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement from 1 AM CDT Tuesday through late
     Tuesday night for INZ003.

MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 2 AM EDT Tuesday through late
     Tuesday night for MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Marsili
SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Marsili


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