Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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347
FXUS63 KLBF 201837 AAA
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
137 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Pacific high pressure will continue to build into Western and North
Central Nebraska today. Tonight an arctic front...currently near
Calgary...will back into Nrn Neb. The model consensus suggests rain
changing to snow across the north. The SREF has a 60 percent
probability of measurable snow by morning and this is consistent
with the GFS and NAM. Snow production will have to occur above 700mb
where temperatures are favorable for snow growth and the NAM and GFS
show this.

The temperature forecast follows a blend of guidance plus bias
correction which was spiked with the RAP...HRRR and HRRR EXP models
for highs around 60 north to lower 70s in the southwest. Lows
tonight fall into the 30s.

The GFS shows very strong frontogenesis favoring rain and snow
across Nrn Neb tonight. This will be quite necessary given the dry
air at the lower levels. The snow accumulation process will have to
overcome ground temperatures in the lower 40s which suggests no
significant travel hazard other than accumulations of slush on the
roads.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

A band of mid level frontogenesis will gradually weaken Tuesday
across north central Nebraska. Decent lift and saturation are noted
until around noontime, and precipitation looks definite through late
morning. Buffer soundings do indicate precipitation in the form of
wet snow, especially where the heavier precipitation rates occur.
Will mention snow in the forecast, and have up to one inch
accumulation. This would mainly occur on grassy surfaces due mild
temperatures in the 32 to 35 degree range.

Another wave moves across late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Again
it appears northern Nebraska favored for precipitation, but some
chance farther south as well. Potential for another rain snow mix or
just wet snow. Possibly another inch of slushy accumulation late
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Then the attention turns to a significant storm slated to cross the
area late Thursday through Friday. All models and the GFS ensemble
mean suggest moderate to heavy precipitation for much of western and
north central Nebraska. Moist and unstable air Thursday afternoon
and evening could support thunderstorms, then a steadier rain
develops late Thursday night into Friday. Strong north winds also
develop Friday. Sounding profiles suggest a close call between rain
or snow, and it`s quite possible a changeover to all snow could
occur Friday morning. Accumulation would be tricky due to surface
temperatures a few degrees above freezing. This will be one to
watch. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Visual flight rules over western Nebraska this afternoon and early
evening. A cold front will move south into northern Nebraska early
Tuesday morning with areas of snow along and north of a line from
KIEN to KONL into Tuesday morning. In these areas of snow expect
MVFR ceilings and visibilities.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Power



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