Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 231724

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1224 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Issued at 324 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

UA analysis from earlier this evening had a trough of low
pressure extending from New England southwest into the Ohio Valley
and the Ozarks. West of this feature, a ridge of high pressure
extended from the four corners north into the northern Rockies. West
of the ridge, a trough of low pressure extended from the Gulf of
Alaska south to off the coast of northern California. A weak
shortwave was noted over northern California. At the surface: Low
pressure was located over central Montana with a cold front
extending east southeast into northern South Dakota and central
Minnesota. South of the front, a tightening surface pressure gradient
was noted across western Nebraska and has led to increasing
southerly winds across the west and northwestern forecast area
overnight. With increasing winds, 3 AM temperatures were in the
lower to middle 40s.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Over the next 24 hours, winds today
and fire weather concerns followed by the threat for light
precipitation tonight are the main forecast challenges. For today:
The shortwave over northern California will track into the
intermountain west today. Surface low pressure will deepen down
stream of the approaching shortwave across northeastern Wyoming.
With high pressure located over northeastern Oklahoma and deepening
low pressure over eastern Wyoming, the surface pressure gradient
will tighten significantly across western and north central Nebraska
this afternoon. Southerly winds will increase later this morning and
will approach 30 MPH by this afternoon. Based on bufkit soundings,
strong mixing potential exists with gust potential approaching 40 to
45 MPH this afternoon. In addition to wind, a fairly dry airmass
remains anchored across western and north central Nebraska. With
highs in the lower to middle 70s this afternoon and dew points in
the upper 20s to around 30, minimum rh will fall off to 20 to 25
percent this afternoon. Attm, the area of main concern for near
critical fire danger conditions is in the east where srly winds will
be the strongest and minimum relative humidity will fall off to 20
to 25 percent. Will plan on hitting the fire weather concerns in the
HWO with this mornings issuance. For tonight, low pressure will
track east into southern South Dakota, with a pre frontal trough
extending southwest into the Nebraska panhandle. Southerly winds
will continue, albeit with slower wind speeds than this afternoon.
None the less, with winds continuing overnight, lows will be mild
with readings in the mid to upper 40s expected. Later tonight, a
weak disturbance will lift from northern Colorado and eastern
Wyoming into western Nebraska. This will lead to an increased threat
for showers overnight in the northwestern forecast area. With a dry
boundary layer in place, will leave pops low.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

A shortwave trough will quickly move east across the Dakotas and
Minnesota Monday. This will glance northern Nebraska and there
appears to be just enough lift and moisture to maintain a low chance
for showers. Otherwise a cold front will surge southeast across the
region in the wake of the system, with winds switching to northwest
and gusty.

The first in a series of storm systems will track across the area
Tuesday into Tuesday night. GFS ensemble mean tracks a 700 mb low
near the Nebraska South Dakota border, and will keep the likely pops
for rain confined across northern Nebraska in close proximity to the
track. Enough cold air will be in place to allow some wet snow to
mix in with any lingering rain showers Tuesday night before the
system exits to the east. Reinforcing surge of chilly Canadian air
will filter into the region on the backside of the system late
Tuesday night into Wednesday.

The region will be in between systems Wednesday and a dry day is
expected. Despite some sunshine it will remain quite cool, with 850
mb temperatures ranging from 0C to 8C from northeast to southwest
across the forecast area. This will translate to highs ranging from
the upper 40s to mid 50s.

A stronger system will affect the area Thursday into Saturday. The
cold air will remain in place with highs mainly in the 40s with
perhaps some 50s across far southwest Nebraska. GFS ensemble mean
continues to advertise a closed low with beneficial rain possible.
Wet snow may mix in at night with the cold air in place.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

VFR anticipated for all terminals through the current TAF cycle.
Gusty south winds are forecast with a wind shift to northwest
behind a cold front early Monday morning. Wind shear will be
present at most terminals as the winds at the surface weaken some
overnight /due to loss of mixing/ but stay strong aloft. Overall
forecast confidence is high due to strong short term model




SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Jacobs is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.