Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
320 FXUS63 KLBF 080557 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1257 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon through Thursday, with no severe weather anticipated. - Upper level ridging amplifies over the western United States late this week and into the weekend, with drier northwesterly flow developing aloft. - Temperatures remain below average in the 60s through Thursday, before warming back into the 70s/80s this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Currently, scattered showers have begun to develop across much of the Sandhills, with steep lapse rates aloft supporting at least meager instability amid a very dry boundary layer. Winds remain gusty from the west-northwest this afternoon, with the area still under the influence of a deep surface low over the Dakotas. For tonight, expect showers/isolated thunderstorms to persist through late this afternoon, before quickly waning after sunset with the loss of diurnal heating. Winds will weaken somewhat overnight as the aforementioned surface low continues to weaken over the Dakotas, and cold advection wanes near sunrise tomorrow morning. This will promote lows falling into the 30s across western Nebraska to near 40 degrees in central/north central Nebraska. By tomorrow, the large upper low anchored over the northern Plains will begin to slide southward, becoming centered overhead by tomorrow afternoon. This will usher in ample cold air aloft to steepen lapse rates in the mid-levels, and should result in the development of scattered showers/thunderstorms across the area yet again. Deep layer shear remains very weak to add to the very limited instability, so not expecting any strong storms tomorrow. With a very dry boundary layer yet again, QPFs will remain light, with locally up to a few tenths of an inch at best. A weak frontal boundary passes through the area in the afternoon, with winds returning west-northwesterly in its wake, with at least some increase in cold advection as well. This will knock ~5-10 degrees off today`s highs, generally in the 50s to low 60s. Winds also remain breezy from the northwest, with a belt of stronger H7 flow across western Nebraska on the western periphery of the mid-level low center diving southeasterly across northeast Nebraska. Gusts of 25-30 miles per hour can be expected for areas west of HWY 83. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 The area remains under the influence of the aforementioned upper low again on Thursday, with yet another round of showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon. As with Wednesday, not anticipating any strong storms, with little in the way of deep layer shear. By Friday, the upper low will finally exit the area off to the east, with upper ridging amplifying across the western CONUS. A cutoff low is progged to meander near the Four Corners late week into the weekend as well. Flow aloft transitions northwesterly, with at least a brief reprieve from precipitation chances anticipated. Low level flow locally finally transitions southerly by the weekend, with increasing warm advection boosting temperatures back into the 70s to low 80s. The aforementioned cutoff low will slowly push eastward into the central Plains by late weekend/early next week, and could bring the return of precipitation back to the area. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1254 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 A weakening area of upper level low pressure will drift southward toward Nebraska today. Ceilings will gradually lower from northwest to southeast. Any MVFR ceilings should be confined to far northwest Nebraska. Scattered showers will be possible across northwest and north central Nebraska. Winds will generally be from the northwest at 5-15 kt. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Brown LONG TERM...Brown AVIATION...Taylor