Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 162026
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
326 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

The blend of the HRRR models and the RAP appear to be lifting the
upper level cold pool and resultant showers/isolated thunderstorms
northeast too quickly by 2 or 3 hours. With the loss of heating and
collapse of the boundary layer at sunset, the showers should
dissipate.

Weak high pressure will build in tonight produce clear skies. Drier
air and lower precipitable water should stabilize the atmosphere.

The NAM will develop thunderstorms off the Cheyenne divide and Black
Hills Thursday afternoon. Very modest h850mb return flow develops
during the afternoon and sfc winds will be very light. The northwest
flow aloft near 35kt would support a multicell environment. SPC gave
Wrn Nebraska a 5 percent severe weather chance and the primary
hazard is strong wind gusts.

blended guidance plus bias correction produced lows in the 50s and
highs in the 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

The storm activity Thursday afternoon could grow upscale and the
model consensus suggested a chance to likely POP Thursday night
across Ncntl Neb. The best storm coverage and heavier rainfall might
remain north across SD or slip southeast into the eastern edge of
Ncntl Neb.

Better return moisture and forcing develops late Saturday and both
the NAM and GFS show some pretty good rain centers developing across
either Swrn or Ncntl Neb. Precipitable water increases to around
1.25 inches. Chance POPs are in place, mainly Saturday night.
500mb Winds aloft become zonal and decrease to around 25 kt, perhaps
lessening the chance of severe storm development.

The moisture remains in place Sunday and yet another upper air
disturbance is progged to set off showers and thunderstorms Sunday
evening.

The cloud forecast Monday continues to evaluate the potential for
high cloudiness which could partially obscure the eclipse.

The ECM and GFS shows subtropical moisture aloft moving across the
Rockies which could produce scattered or broken high cloudiness
around noon Monday. The GFS also indicates substantial low level
moisture and stratus across Wrn/Ncntl Neb leftover from heavy
thunderstorms across Ern Neb Sunday night. The ECM produces the
thunderstorms across SD but shows the same moisture in place like
the GFS. Thus, it is possible significant cloudiness will occur
Monday.

As a result, the sky forecast for noon Monday has been increased
from 35-40 percent yesterday, to 40 to 60 percent with the forecast
today.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

An upper level cold pool across Swrn Neb will continue to spark
showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. The activity
will shift slowly east and northeast this afternoon and exit Ncntl
Neb early this evening. MVFR/IFR cigs and visibility will
accompany the showers and thunderstorms until 00z. VFR is expected
all areas from 03z this evening through 18z Thursday.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...CDC


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