Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 260542
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1142 PM CST Fri Nov 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 239 PM CST Fri Nov 25 2016

Tonight and Saturday...A ridge builds across the region bringing dry
air to the forecast area. The main forecast challenge is how low the
temperatures will get tonight under dry, clear skies. Models suggest
temperatures in the low teens but current thinking is a similar
pattern to last night`s with lows in the upper teens and 20s. Highs
on Saturday will be well above normal with highs in the low 60s,
which is 15 to 20 degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 239 PM CST Fri Nov 25 2016

Upper level ridging will remain in place Saturday night with dry
conditions. During this time an amplified upper level trough will
dig across California into the Four Corners Region. On Sunday,
the leading upper level trough will lift northeast across the
Central Plains. This will bring a slight chance for light rain
showers late morning, then a chance for rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms east of a Valentine through Ogallala line.
Thunderstorm potential aided by steep lapse rates and weak
instability. The airmass will continue to remain mild with highs
around 50 north central to the upper 50s far southern three
counties in southwest Nebraska. A chance for evening showers and
rain or snow showers after midnight, mainly across north central.

The GFS, GEM, and ECMWF models each handle the position of a
closed 500 mb low differently. The ECMWF is farthest south across
southern South Dakota Sunday night and Monday, while the GFS
lifts the low from southeast South Dakota into southeastern North
Dakota. Due to the ECMWF maintaining this closed low across South
Dakota into southern Minnesota Monday into Tuesday, a slight
chance/low chance pops forecast will remain across north central
Nebraska. This system will bring some windy conditions Monday into
Tuesday along with a potential for light snow accumulations from
wrap around. Not expecting any significant snow accumulations with
up to an inch possible in current forecast.

The low pressure system to move slowly into the Great Lakes
Region Wednesday with a long wave trough digging south across the
the Southern Plains into the middle Mississippi Valley. This
amplified flow will bring northwest flow aloft to western Nebraska
and colder temperatures with highs from the mid 30s to low 40s
Wednesday and Thursday to the low to mid 30s Friday along with
dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1139 PM CST Fri Nov 25 2016

VFR conditions are expected all areas with a few high level
cirrus clouds. Winds will will be from the southwest at 5 to 10
kts through Saturday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Taylor



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