Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 052302 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
602 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

AT 19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVELING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH RIDGING BUILDING
INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE PRIMARY UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. MID LEVEL
ENERGY COULD GET PICKED OUT ROTATING AROUND THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW
ACROSS COLORADO...AS WELL AS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. NEBRASKA SAT
IN AN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE NOW OFF TO THE
EAST WHICH KEPT DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA AND SKIES SUNNY. LAPS
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INDICATE NEARLY FULL MIXING
HAS BEEN ACHIEVED...BUT WITH FULL SUNSHINE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
GO UP ANOTHER FEW DEGREES. CURRENT READINGS AS OF 20Z WERE IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S. ALSO SEEN AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH HAD
WORKED EASTWARD WHICH WAS BRINGING SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA.
AT 20Z THIS TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM ABOUT KICR TO KANW TO KMCK.
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH DEWPOINTS REMAINED IN THE 60S...WITH 40S AND
50S TO THE WEST.

DEWPOINTS WILL RECOVER TONIGHT...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO THE
MID 60S. WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE NORTH BY SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL STAY FAIRLY LIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD HELP THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE TO
COOL...BUT THE DROP WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE DEWPOINTS STILL IN
THE 50S AND 60S. DON/T EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COMPLETELY COOL TO
THE SATURATION POINT SO HAVE FORECAST LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND
60S.

THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MONTANA WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PUSH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE
TROUGH...HOWEVER GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA REMAINING ABOVE
22C...HIGHS AROUND 90 ARE STILL LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
MID AND UPPER 90S OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE WARMER AIR WILL
BE AS 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE 29C-31C. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE PASSING BOUNDARY AS MOISTURE WILL
POOL IN THE VICINITY AND THE CAP BREAKS. BELIEVE THE CHANCES FOR
ANY STORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...SOUTH OF A LINE FROM IMPERIAL TO BROKEN BOW.
STORMS SHOULD GET PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE EVENING THEN AS THE
BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AND STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE PASSAGE /PWATS LESS
THAN AN INCH/ AND FORECAST IS DRY EARLY ON. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE THE NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. A SWATH OF PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH WILL
HAVE TO OVERCOME THE DRY LOWER LEVELS...THUS ONLY INCLUDING A
SLIGHT CHANCE.

BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARRIVE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A
SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO WARM INTO UPPER 80S AND
EVEN SOME LOW 90S ACROSS FAR SW. MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES. THE BETTER
MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES AND WILL PLACE HIGHEST POPS
THERE.

COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A NOCTURNAL LL JET
HOWEVER SOME CONCERN ABOUT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. LOW POPS FOR
NOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT.

WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENS AND EXPANDS EAST FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. RIDGE
RIDING DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/HIGH PLAINS...AND WILL INCLUDE SOME ON AND OFF LOW POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH 21Z SUNDAY. FROM 21Z
SUNDAY ONWARD...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SWRN
AND SCNTL NEB.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC






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