Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 130530
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1130 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

A positively tilted upper trough will extending from Montana
through the Great Basin with a closed low over Nevada. A weak
disturbance exiting northeast Colorado early this evening will
bring a chance for light snow to areas est of Ogallala through
Ainsworth this evening. Snowfall amounts will mainly be a dusting
with up to a half inch possible. Flurries possible across the
southeast until mid evening. Lows around 10 above overnight. Some
clearing begins after midnight. On Tuesday, surface high pressure
drifts across the eastern CONUS, as the Western CONUS trough
fills yet remains stationary. Warm air advection will occur across
the region. With winds becoming southwest yet fairly light at
only 5-10 mph, mixing will be limited. This will hamper the
warmup, with highs near the previous forecast from 35-40 west and
30-35 east.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 200 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

A substantial warmup to occur Wednesday as the upper flow become
zonal ahead of an upper trough dropping into the Pacific
Northwest. 850mb temperatures rise to 4-9C by peak heating, and
westerly winds increasing to 15 to 25 mph across the Sandhills.
Highs from the upper 40s to 50 north and the low to mid 50s south.
Existing snow cover could hamper the warmup, so the potential for
cooler highs is certainly possible.

A cold front will move in Wednesday night. This will bring a
chance for light snow into north central Nebraska. From previous
forecasts, the snow chances and coverage area is much less. This
is primarily due to the models indicating less available moisture
and the system track further north across the Dakotas into
Minnesota. There is also some differences in how quickly the
colder air will arrive. Highs were raised to the upper 30s to
lower 40s near and south of I80, while far northern Nebraska only
reaches the upper 20s. Northwest winds will increase to 15 to 25
mph late morning thorugh the afternoon.

On Friday, winds will return to the southwest with a modest
warmup to the low 30s east and the upper 30s southwest. A further
warmup this weekend as a long wave trough drops south from western
canada into the northwestern U.S. This will bring mild
temperatures from the mid 40s to lower 50s Saturday, and 40s to
low 50s Sunday. A cold front is forecast to move into the area
Sunday. The latest ECMWF is slower with the cold front by over 6
hours than the GFS. Therefore highs have the potential to range
in the 50s, per European MOS guidance. The is a chance for light
snow Sunday night into Monday, mainly across north central
Nebraska. Monday looks to be much colder as an arctic airmass
begin to settle into the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

Expect mostly cloudy skies overnight with mid to high level
cloudiness expected across western and north central Nebraska.
Some IFR CIGS were present west of KOGA at fcst issuance time.
With easterly winds expected to persist into the overnight, this
area of low clouds is expected to remain west of the KLBF
terminal, even with a wind shift to southeasterly overnight. On
Tuesday, look for clouds to scatter out by afternoon with few to
scattered at 20000 to 25000 FT AGL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 200 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

Continued cold temperatures have caused ice to increase on the
rivers. This has caused localized ice jamming to occur. Known
areas this is occurring is on the North Platte river and South
Platte river at North Platte locations. For both locations, a
river statement was issued highlighting elevated river conditions
due to the ice. No flooding, which could affect residences is
expected.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Buttler
HYDROLOGY...Roberg



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