Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 192038
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
338 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE AREA...WITH VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS.
SHORT TERM HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN DRIFT EAST
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS
CONFIRMS THIS THINKING...WITH QUITE A BIT IN THE WAY OF TOWERING
CUMULUS FROM CHEYENNE DOWN THROUGH THE DENVER METRO. SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KTS THIS EVENING...WHICH MAY
HELP SUPPORT STORMS AS THEY TRACK EAST. NOT EXPECTING COVERAGE TO BE
WIDESPREAD...AND DUE TO THE RIDGING ALOFT...NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON
HOW FAR EAST STORMS WILL MAKE IT. LATER TONIGHT...DECENT MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...AND EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT.

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM MODEL IS THE FARTHEST EAST WITH THE
TROUGH...WHILE THE NMM...ARW AND GEM REGIONAL HOLD THE TROUGH BACK
FROM ROUGHLY AINSWORTH TO IMPERIAL. DECENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS BY
AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE TROUGH...WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
APPROACHING 4000 J/KG. A BELT OF STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO
BE PRESENT BY AFTERNOON ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SYNOPTIC SET UP APPEARS SIMILAR TO
THE SUNDAY SEVERE EVENT...AND AGREE WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
GENERATE A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS INDICATE PROBABILITY/
COVERAGE OF 20-30 PERCENT IN THE SANDHILLS AND 30-40 PERCENT IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. SURFACE
BASED CAPE IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS PRETTY HIGH AT
3500-4000J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR (0-6KM) AROUND 30KT. WITH STORM MOTION
240-260 AT 15-25KT...STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
110-200. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING...THOUGH WE
WILL NOT INCLUDE THE MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH
FRIDAY...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEBRASKA.

FINALLY...SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A COOL FRONT COMES ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND THE PATTERN IS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE EASTWARD
INTO FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING...AND SOME ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE...NO MENTION IS WARRANTED IN
THE OFFICIAL TAF FORECAST. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...TAYLOR





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