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000
FXUS63 KLBF 261751
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1251 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING RADAR RETURNS DIMINISHING AS SEEN ON KLNX 88D.
SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUDS BREAKING UP TO THE WEST...FROM THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF
REPRIEVE IN THE RING OF FIRE. NEAR TERM MODELS HRR AND
WRF...LINGER RADAR RETURNS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE
MORNING. HAVE RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS VALENTINE TO BURWELL AND
EAST BUT AM NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN THIS SCENARIO LOOKING AT
EASTWARD TREND ON SATELLITE AND RADAR. AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WARMEST TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
LOW TO MID 90S WHILE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE UPPER 80S. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
SANDHILLS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AS GUIDANCE WAS 3 TO 4 DEGREES TO
COOL YESTERDAY. COOL FRONT TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH WAVES MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF RING OF
FIRE INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVER
NIGHT. HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MID 50S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 60S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE RIDGE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
AT 12Z SUNDAY THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PLACING THE LOW
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. IT CONTINUES TO
DIG INTO THE TROUGH THROUGH 12Z MONDAY WHICH FURTHER AMPLIFIES THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS THE RIDGE OFF TO THE WEST BUILDS THROUGH
MONTANA AND INTO WESTERN CANADA. THIS PARTICULAR UPPER LOW THEN
GETS INGESTED INTO THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND QUEBEC.
MODELS STAY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LITTLE CHANGE OCCURRING
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NEXT WEEK IN TERMS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTH- NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH COOLER
AIR TO THE EAST AND HOT AIR TO THE WEST THE PLAINS WILL AREA
BISECTING THESE AIR-MASSES AND COULD SEE THE TEMPERATURES VARYING
BY DAY AS MINOR SHIFTS IN THE PATTERN MAY ADJUST THE LOCATIONS OF
THE WARMER VERSUS COOLER AIR.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES AT 850MB RANGING FROM 15C TO 22C ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WHICH LEADS TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S. THESE NUMBERS LOOK
REASONABLE AS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN THE TWO AIR-
MASSES...KEEPING THE MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WELL TO THE
EAST AND THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE THE WARMEST HIGHS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN SANDHILLS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES GOING INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA. THE AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WON/T BE INCREDIBLY DRY SO
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO STAY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. THEREFORE LOWS WILL BE NEAR THE NORMAL VALUES OF UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S.

THE BIGGER QUESTION OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE AGREEING WITH THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN...THERE
ARE MANY DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVES PASSING OVER
THE RIDGE AND INTO THE TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES AS WELL AS DIFFERENCES IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THESE
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH...ALONG WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVING OVER THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...IF USING A BLEND OF THE
MODELS...WOULD GET A FORECAST LITTERED WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH EACH PERIOD. THERE IS CONCERN THAT ENERGY MOVING THROUGH
THE TROUGH WILL NOT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION AS FAR WEST
AS CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHILE SHORTWAVES ADVANCING OVER THE RIDGE
MAY TAKE A PATH WEST OF THE AREA...FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE NEED FOR A DRY FORECAST
THROUGHOUT. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON THAT OCCURRING THOUGH SO EVEN
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF BETTER CHANCES...FEEL THAT THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST ONE OR TWO DAYS WITH A NEED FOR A MENTION FOR
RAIN. AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS ARE MOST CONSISTENT WITH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS NEBRASKA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SO HAVE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THOSE THREE DAYS RATHER
THAN ON EACH DAY OF THE PERIOD. SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AT 35 TO 45KTS.
INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH VALUES LESS
THAN 1K J/KG. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONVECTIVE WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...DON/T ANTICIPATE SEVERE STORMS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE GREATEST IMPACT TO THE AVIATION COMMUNITY TODAY WILL BE THE
PRESENCE OF STRATUS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...IMPACTING THE
KVTN...KTIF AND KANW TERMINALS. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
MVFR /OR LOWER/ CEILING LIFTING/CLEARING AFTER 20Z THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS STRATUS IS BUILDING SOUTH ATTM HOWEVER...AND IS QUESTIONABLE
IF IT WILL IMPACT KLBF. ATTM...WILL FAVOR GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES...OR AT LEAST VFR SKIES/CEILINGS AT KLBF THROUGH THE 18Z
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT UPDATE IF NEEDED. OTHERWISE THE WIND WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH TODAY/THIS EVENING...AND MAY BE A
BIT GUSTY...BUT WILL WEAKEN SOME OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...JACOBS