Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 292127
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
327 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 326 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

At 20z...A center of surface low pressure extended across Minnesota
with a fairly tight pressure gradient across the Dakotas and western
Nebraska. Northwest winds in western Nebraska have been gusting to
around 40 knots at times. a persistent area of snow continued in
northern Sheridan County. A recent Cooperative observer north of
Gordon reported 3 inches of snow with visibility below a 1/2 mile.
temperatures ranged from the upper 20s northern Sheridan County to
the upper 30s in southwest Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Tonight...the upper level low in central Minnesota will track slowly
east tonight. Light snow and blowing snow will continue across
northern portions of the winter weather advisory area. The area will
remain near and north of highway 20 mainly west of Cody. Persistent
weak lift in the lee of the Black Hills along with upslope flow
along the Pine ridge will aid in new snow accumulations up to an
inch in northern Sheridan County. Areas of blowing snow to continue
near and north of Highway 20 as well. A chance for light snow as far
south as highway 2, with evening flurries further south across
western central Nebraska into central Nebraska.

Lows tonight will range from the lower 20s northwest to the upper
20s in the east. Northwest winds tonight will diminish slightly, yet
remain near 20 to 30 mph.

Wednesday...The upper level system will continue to have an effect
on weather conditions Wednesday, as it moves slowly into Wisconsin
and the western Great Lakes region. Still a chance for light snow in
northern nebraska, with a slight chance of light snow or flurries as
far south as highway 2. Any lingering light snow in the afternoon
should end by late afternoon.

Highs will remain near previous forecast from near 30 and the lower
30s north, to the lower 40s far southern counties of southwest
Nebraska. Considerable cloudiness will affect most of the area,
through the day with clearing skies into the southwest in the
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Wednesday through Friday...snow should continue across Nrn
Nebraska Wednesday...mainly along and north of highway 20. Another
snow band may set up along the black hills and press south into
northern Nebraska. The models show plenty of wrap-around moisture
and cold air advection which peaks Wednesday as h700mb temperatures
fall to -10C to -12C.

Winds at h850mb will decrease about 10kt to 35kt which supports
northwest winds in the 20 to 30 mph range and gradual clearing is
expected from the southwest. A check on the 500m AGL winds confirms
these speeds.

Bias corrected guidance suggested highs in the 30s to lower 40s.
Continue clearing is expected Wednesday night with lows falling into
the teens. The models show midlevel clouds lingering across Holt
county where lows in the 20s are expected with cloud cover in place.

The models continue to show mid level cloudiness with scattered or
broken coverage Thursday and low pressure will be sprawled out
across eastern Canada which pulls arctic air through the Central and
Northern Plains. Bias corrected guidance indicates highs in the 30s
to lower 40s Thursday with 30s across the board Friday as arctic
high pressure moves overhead and high clouds drift in from the west
associated with an upper level low forming across the Srn Rockies.

Saturday through Tuesday...a high latitude block will form across
the Arctic and this amplification is expected to send arctic high
pressure into Nebraska Tuesday preceded by moderating temperatures
Saturday and Sunday. The modest warm up is associated with a lead
short wave moving through the Northern Plains and which should send
a cold front through the forecast area Monday cooling highs
somewhat. H850mb temperatures rise to 5C Sunday night and then cool
sharply Monday and Tuesday.

Highs in the 40s would appear operative Saturday and Sunday. Highs
Tuesday would reach the 20s and 30s using a blend of the GFS and ECM
plus bias correction. The MEX and ECE guidance was cooler than the
blend. In fact...the ECE gives Valentine a high of 18F Tuesday but
North Platte 30F.

The GEF...GFS and ECM indicate snow Tuesday as a disturbance drops
through the Central Rockies and begins lifting toward Kansas and
Nebraska. The snow would likely be the result of the arctic front
dropping through Nebraska vs the upper level energy across the
Rockies.

WPC suggested QPF of 0.10 to 0.25 inches Tuesday and temperatures at
h700mb fall to around -10C supporting snow. POPs Tuesday are 20 to
50 percent for this forecast which is a bit lower than the previous
forecast. Remember day 7 forecasts can have large errors but arctic
cold fronts frequently produce light snow and the models are in
excellent agreement with this arctic air coming south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

MVFR ceilings should persist at KVTN through the entire taf
period. Visibility will be reduced to around 2sm at times, while
mainly range near 6sm or higher. VFR conditions should persist at
KLBF, although there will be intermittent light snow showers this
afternoon with visibilites remaining p6sm.

A storm system will promote strong winds across the entire forecast
area with gusts up to 35 kts, strongest in the western Sandhills.
Winds will lessen some overnight, however, expect strong breezes
to continue. Furthermore, snow is expected across the northern
third of the forecast area into Wednesday morning.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Wednesday for
NEZ004-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Roberg


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