Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 240515
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1115 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

AT H5 CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. LARGE AREA OF SNOW FROM
WISCONSIN TO NORTHEAST COLORADO. BUILDING BERMUDA RIDGE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM EAST TEXAS TO FLORIDA.
STRONG WESTERN CONUS RIDGE FROM BUILDING HIGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE WESTERN PROVINCES OF
CANADA. CLOSED GULF OF ALASKA LOW MOVING INTO VANCOUVER.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

WITH SNOW COVER IN THE SANDHILLS...CLEARING SKY AND DECREASING
WIND...WE WILL LOWER THE EXPECTED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST...WHICH CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  BANDED SNOW
STRUCTURES THAT CURRENTLY ARE SEEN ON REGIONAL RADARS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO  DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  EXTENSIONS
OF OUR CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...AM NOT ANTICIPATING A EARLY CANCELLATION OF THE HEADLINES
EITHER...AS NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER CONTINUE TO
CREATE REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.  THE HEADLINES WILL EXPIRE AT 00Z
THIS EVENING.

TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGING WILL NOSE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND CALMER CONDITIONS.  SNOW
WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT.  WHERE
A FRESH SNOWPACK LIES /NW NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS/...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO TANK.  WILL UNDERCUT
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES IN THIS AREA....WHICH SUGGESTS
SINGLE DIGIT LOWS.  ELSEWHERE...ENOUGH CLOUDINESS AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.  ON
WEDNESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SIGNIFICANTLY...YIELDING
CALMER CONDITIONS.  A CRAIG COLORADO HIGH TAKES UP
RESIDENCE...PROVIDING FOR A GENERAL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WIND FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST...WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF MID 30S RETURNING TO OUR WESTERN ZONES.  ONCE
AGAIN NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WAS UNDERCUT BY A DEGREE OR TWO WHERE
ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS FALLEN.  OTHERWISE WITH SINKING AIR IN
PLACE...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.  A
POTENTIAL CONCERN HOWEVER IS THAT THE NAM KEEPS THE BL SATURATED
OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH STRATUS KEEPING BOTH HIGHS AND
LOWS IN CHECK...ATTM...FAVORING AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AS THE GFS
IS SUGGESTING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS. WILL
USE A BLEND OF NAM AND GFS THROUGH THE MID TERM AND GFS AND ECMWF
FOR THE LONG TERM SOLUTIONS. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MODELS 850MB
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
THEN DIVERGE FROM THERE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH
GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE CHRISTMAS DAY SYSTEM BUT SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING OVER THE SOUTH HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND 20 WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST DUE
TO THE CLEARING. COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHWEST PANHANDLE THROUGH
THE MORNING. HAVE HELD OFF START OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
AFTERNOON OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY. 850MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET FROM 12Z
9C TO -5C BY 23Z. H5 WAVE IS OPEN AND POSITIVELY TILTED. STRONG
250MB JET 120KT+ FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND EAST. DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND 850MB LOW CLOSES
OFF OVER WESTERN COLORADO. STRONG BERMUDA HIGH WILL EJECT SYSTEM
TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FROM CHAPPELL TO
ONEILL. FAST MOVING SYSTEM. HAVE GONE WITH HPCQPF AND A 13:1
RATIO. GIVES ABOUT 3 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
LINE. SURFACE LO OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS DEEPENS QUICKLY THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY AND IF ANYTHING SHOULD LIMIT NORTHEAST PROGRESSION
COULD PUT OUT MORE SNOW. WINDS WILL BE STRONG WITH THE SYSTEM AND
COULD SEE AREAS OF BLOWING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SNOW ENDS FRIDAY MORNING OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH A FALLING THROUGH THE DAY PATTERN. 850MB TEMPERATURES
FALLING TO -12C THROUGH FRIDAY MIDNIGHT AND THEN WE GET ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE GONE WITH COLDER
GUIDANCE OVER SNOW COVERED AREA AND CLEARING SKIES. NEXT COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH MUCH COLDER
AIR. HAVE GONE FAIRLY DRY WITH THE FRONT FOR NOW AND TEMPERATURES
ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S MONDAY AND TEENS ON
TUESDAY BUT COULD BE COLDER. JUST TRENDING DOWN FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

CEILINGS OF 1000-1500 FEET AGL WILL CONTINUE ERODING FROM THE WEST
AS THE SURFACE LOW MAKES ITS WAY EAST TO THE MISSIPPI VALLEY AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES. WIND HAS ALREADY DECREASED TTO 12KT OR LOWER
MANY AREAS WITH A FEW SITES LIKE VTN AND LBF LESS THAN 10KT. THERE
IS NO REASON TO EXPECT THE TREND TO CHANGE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER





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