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000
FXUS63 KLBF 241611 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1011 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

UPDATED FORECAST FOR HIGHS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN TO MIX AND
WARM QUICKER THAN PREDICTED SO HAVE BUMPED MAX HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES GENERALLY OVER THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

NEAR TERM SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT...GFS SOLUTION SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN NAM SOLUTION AND HAVE USED A BLEND FOR PRECIPITATION
FORECAST. WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEAST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR
TODAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SOME FOR SNOW COVER WITH MUCH
OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND
FROM OGALLALA TO CURTIS. TONIGHT FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING OR MIXED PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT OVER THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS BUT NOT A REAL
CLEAR SIGNAL AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. CURRENT
INDICATIONS OF AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA FROM SPRINGVIEW TO BURWELL AND NORTH. THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA TO SEE MAINLY A DUSTING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

12Z WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.  SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  UPGLIDE TARGETING THE 280-295K LAYER
IS ENHANCED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHERE THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THE STRONGEST FGEN SUPPORT AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.
SNOW WILL BE MEASURABLE...BUT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 1 INCH RANGE AS QPF AMOUNTS
ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR A TENTH OF AN INCH.  THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
SHOW AN ADDITIONAL UPGLIDE AREA SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OFF TO OUR WEST.  THE GREATEST FGEN
IS TIED CLOSE TO THE FRONT RANGE...THUS ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES.  SO ALL IN ALL...THE GREATEST
CHANCES OF SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL BE
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ZONES AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE...WITH OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA SEEING LESS THAN A FEW TENTHS AT MOST.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL HELP FORCE A BAROCLINIC ZONE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY....BRINGING A STARK COOLDOWN TO THE
REGION.  HIGHS WILL BE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  H85
TEMPERATURES ARE SHOWN TO FALL IN THE MINUS 15 TO MINUS 20 RANGE
ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  LOWS BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...IF NOT SUB-ZERO.
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH ACCUMULATION OCCURS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...GOING LOWS IN THE MINUS 5 RANGE MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH.
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT SHOT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH.  SOLID MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FORECAST IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WHEN FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS/DPVA IS IN
PLACE.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT WOULD FAVOR SNOW.  FOR
NOW WILL KEEP WHAT THE CR-INIT PRODUCED...WHICH BASICALLY SUGGESTS
40 PERCENT POPS OR LESS OVER MUCH OF THE FA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THE BROAD-BRUSH APPROACH IS REASONABLE GIVE MODEL SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE INTO THE KONL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
OTHERWISE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO KVTN TAF SITE THROUGH MID
MORNING. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR CATEGORIES THROUGH
THE DAY. INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA OVER NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING
TOWARDS SUNRISE. HAVE LEFT OUT OF KVTN TAF FOR NOW.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GOMEZ
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...POWER