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000
FXUS63 KLBF 261003
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
403 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

H5 ANALYSIS ACROSS THE CONUS TONIGHT HAS A DEEPENING TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SWD TO THE GULF COAST. FURTHER
WEST HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED OVER NERN NEVADA WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING NWD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EXTENDED FROM EASTERN
MONTANA...INTO THE ARKLATEX. SIGNIFICANT HT RISES OF 100 TO 150
METERS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...SWD INTO NRN OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM AROUND ONEILL
SSW TO AROUND LEXINGTON AS OF 2 AM CST. WEST OF THIS FRONT...WINDS
WERE WESTERLY...AND WHEN MIXED...TEMPERATURES HAVE SURGED INTO THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S OVERNIGHT. INVOF OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
TEMPERATURES AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS EAST OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. FOR TODAY...VERY WARM H85 TEMPS WILL PUSH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WITH READINGS OF 7 TO 13C NOTED
THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL LEAD TO
GOOD MIXING THIS AFTERNOON FACILITATING HIGHS IN THE 60S...WITH
READINGS APPG 70 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FCST HIGH FOR NORTH PLATTE
TDY IS 67 WHICH IS 2 DEG SHY OF THE RECORD HIGH OF 69 SET IN 1951.
FOR BROKEN BOW...THE FCST HIGH OF 65 DEGREES IS 2 DEGREES SHY OF
THE 67 DEGREE RECORD SET IN 1934. FOR IMPERIAL AND VALENTINE...THE
RECORDS ARE 72 AND 71 RESPECTIVELY...WHICH ARE 4 AND 9 DEGREES
ABOVE THE FCST HIGHS TODAY FOR IMPERIAL AND VALENTINE. THE
COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AND MINIMUM RH/S OF
20 TO 25 PERCENT...WILL RESULT IN EXTREME FIRE DANGER THIS
AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. WILL HIT
THIS IN THE HWO AND THE FWF FCST TO BE RELEASED LATER THIS
MORNING. FOR TONIGHT...WINDS...WILL QUICKLY DECOUPLE AFTER
SUNSET...DIMINISHING TO UNDER 10 MPH BY MID EVENING. LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS AND A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL ALLOW LOWS TO REACH
THE 20S...EVEN IN LIGHT OF THE VERY WARM H85 TEMPS OF 10 TO 16C
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

500 MB RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER TEENS C. FORECAST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH 60S AND EVEN A FEW LOW 70S ACROSS SW NEBRASKA. MOST OF THE
AREA HAS NO SNOW AND SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS ARE
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND ONLY 5 TO 15 MPH SO MAY NOT SEE FULL
MIXING. RECORD HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION ARE LBF 67/ VTN 68/ BBW 74/
67 IML. MOST IN JEOPARDY ARE IML AND LBF AND POSSIBLY VTN.

COLD FRONT TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH 850 MB TEMPS
TO BEGIN TO FALL. NW WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAYTIME ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL AID IN MIXING THE STILL
MILD 850 MB TEMPS TO THE SURFACE. WITH THE FALLING TEMPS ALOFT
DURING THE DAY...THIS IS A TRICKY DIURNAL CURVE. COULD SEE EARLY
HIGHS THEN FALLING FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND LIKELY WILL SEE THIS OVER
NW NEB. THE GOOD MIXING AND FRONT BEING PACIFIC IN ORIGIN...TEMPS
REBOUND FOR WEDNESDAY STILL DECENT...AND HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD FOR THURSDAY. HIGHS GENERALLY
ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE MISS
RVR VALLEY FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
INCREASE...AND BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
ON THE INCREASE DUE TO A DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE
WARMING FOR FRIDAY. LIFT IS VERY MARGINAL WITH THE DISTURBANCE
AND COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON SPRINKLES BUT WILL CONTINUE THE DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW.

THE DISTURBANCE QUICKLY SLIDES EAST FOR SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS
DIVERGE QUICKLY FOR THE WEEKEND. A RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WEST
COAST...HOWEVER THE DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION VARIES. THE LATEST EC
26.00Z HAS TRENDED STRONGER...RESULTING IN MORE NORTHERLY FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE PLAINS. THIS IS A BIG CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO.
THE GFS HAS TRENDED ONLY SLIGHT STRONGER...HOWEVER THE ENSEMBLE MEAN
FOR THE GFS DID TREND STRONGER. THE EASIEST WAY TO SEE THIS IS
LOOKING AT THE MOS GUIDANCE. AT KLBF THE GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WAS IN
THE 40S 24 HOURS AGO...WITH THE MEX CONTINUING THIS TREND TODAY.
THE EC MOS NOW HAS A HIGH OF ONLY 20 FOR SUNDAY. THE ENSEMBLE
RANGE IS ALSO GREAT...WITH A STD OF 7 IN THE GFS AND 10 IN THE EC.
THUS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MODEL BLEND AND WILL WAIT FOR BETTER
AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MIDDLE CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST OF ONL-BBW BY 08Z AND UNLIMITED
CEILING AND VISIBILITY IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY
AND INTO MONDAY EVENING. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND 300-330
DIRECTION WILL INCREASE TO 12-16G21-24KT BY 16Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SPRINGER