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000
FXUS63 KLBF 140448
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1148 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...WITH A TROUGH LOCATED IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER
TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. SKIES OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS WERE CLEARING WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S
AND 80S. DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO SLOWLY ON THE RISE AS WINDS HAD
SWITCHED AROUND TO OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS A LEE SIDE SFC TROUGH
BECAME ESTABLISHED IN EASTERN COLORADO.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED PV ANOMALIES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...LEADING TO AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN.

STORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS A LEE SIDE SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
THETA-E VALUES HAVE BEEN ON THE RISE INTO THE REGION...WITH LOW TO
MID 50S DEWPOINTS WIDESPREAD AS OF 20Z. EXPECTING THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS
WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNSET. A 40KT LLJ WILL AID
IN KEEPING THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES EAST INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY WILL HELP SET THE STAGE
FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. MODELS ARE STILL FIGHTING TIMING ISSUES ON THEIR
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE NAM MUCH FASTER THAN THE
GFS/EC. A STOUT CAP WILL HELP HOLD OFF INITIATION UNTIL THE LATE
AFTERNOON WHEN SB CAPE VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASE
TO 3000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN 30-40 KTS SHOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
IMPERIAL TO AINSWORTH WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A FEW SEVERE
STORMS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING. MOISTURE WILL POOL BEHIND THE FRONT WITH INSTABILITY
RANGING FROM 1500-2500 J/KG OF MU CAPES. THE AREA WILL MAINLY
FOCUS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM GRANT THROUGH NORTH PLATTE...BROKEN
BOW AND BURWELL. THE STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED WITH BOTH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. SOUNDING INDICATED A DRY LAYER H6 TO
H85 WHICH WOULD ENHANCE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH STORM MOTION EAST TO NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

SATURDAY THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA. STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
LIMIT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S NCTRL TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. THERE
WILL AGAIN BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AS CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS UP.

ON SUNDAY...TIMING FAVORS BEST POPS OF 40-50 PERCENT DURING THE
DAYTIME AS TRAILING NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH A
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WITH POPS TRIMMED BACK TO
SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TRIMMED BACK TO NEAR
80S PARTS OF NCTRL WITH NEAR 90 STILL FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AS A CLOSED LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NW MOVED INLAND. PATTERN
WILL RETURN TO HIGH PLAINS AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPS FROM THE
LOW/MID 80S TUESDAY...THEN WARMING AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD
FOR MID WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD WARM TO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED PV ANOMALIES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...LEADING TO AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN.

STORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS A LEE SIDE SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
THETA-E VALUES HAVE BEEN ON THE RISE INTO THE REGION...WITH LOW TO
MID 50S DEWPOINTS WIDESPREAD AS OF 20Z. EXPECTING THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS
WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNSET. A 40KT LLJ WILL AID
IN KEEPING THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES EAST INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY WILL HELP SET THE STAGE
FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. MODELS ARE STILL FIGHTING TIMING ISSUES ON THEIR
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE NAM MUCH FASTER THAN THE
GFS/EC. A STOUT CAP WILL HELP HOLD OFF INITIATION UNTIL THE LATE
AFTERNOON WHEN SB CAPE VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASE
TO 3000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN 30-40 KTS SHOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
IMPERIAL TO AINSWORTH WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A FEW SEVERE
STORMS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING. MOISTURE WILL POOL BEHIND THE FRONT WITH INSTABILITY
RANGING FROM 1500-2500 J/KG OF MU CAPES. THE AREA WILL MAINLY
FOCUS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM GRANT THROUGH NORTH PLATTE...BROKEN
BOW AND BURWELL. THE STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED WITH BOTH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. SOUNDING INDICATED A DRY LAYER H6 TO
H85 WHICH WOULD ENHANCE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH STORM MOTION EAST TO NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

SATURDAY THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA. STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
LIMIT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S NCTRL TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. THERE
WILL AGAIN BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AS CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS UP.

ON SUNDAY...TIMING FAVORS BEST POPS OF 40-50 PERCENT DURING THE
DAYTIME AS TRAILING NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH A
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WITH POPS TRIMMED BACK TO
SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TRIMMED BACK TO NEAR
80S PARTS OF NCTRL WITH NEAR 90 STILL FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AS A CLOSED LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NW MOVED INLAND. PATTERN
WILL RETURN TO HIGH PLAINS AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPS FROM THE
LOW/MID 80S TUESDAY...THEN WARMING AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD
FOR MID WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD WARM TO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL STREAM INTO SOUTHWESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. ON FRIDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EXPECTED.
TIMING OF THE SHIFT WILL BE AROUND 18Z AT THE KVTN TERMINAL AND
AROUND 21Z AT THE KLBF TERMINAL. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA FRIDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB