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000
FXUS63 KLBF 280528 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1128 PM CST WED NOV 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED NOV 27 2013

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
FIXED ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST.  THIS PLACES THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS CURRENTLY
USHERING SW ENERGY SOUTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.  AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHILE A
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
WARM DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS HELPED PUSH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...WITH
KVTN...KIML AND KTIF ALL RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S ALREADY TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED NOV 27 2013

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING
CLEARING THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WITH INCREASED MIXING...TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT SHOULD RUN SOME 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH
TEENS AND LOW 20S ANTICIPATED BY DAWN. WEAK TO NEUTRAL LL CAA
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL PUT A DAMPER ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO RUN TOO COOL WITH THE
EXPECTED VALUES...BUT WILL TREND THE FORECAST DOWN SLIGHTLY...WITH
LOWER 30S ANTICIPATED FOR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND LOW 40S
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHWEST. PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAIRLY
LIGHT SFC WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION
FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHERLY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED NOV 27 2013

ON FRIDAY...H85 TEMPS WILL WARM BY ABOUT 6C FROM THURSDAY. WINDS LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS WARMING TO THE LOWER 40S NORTHEAST
TO THE LOWER 50S FAR SOUTHWEST. ONE CONCERN TO LIMIT HIGHS WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS ALONG WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDINESS. CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR IN THE WEST EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT MAY NOT CLEAR OUT
IN THE EAST.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND...DRY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. THE UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
ZONAL. THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
NERN U.S. AND EASTERN CANADA WILL BECOME FAIRLY ZONAL AS WELL INTO
THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS MAINLY FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL SEND AN ARCTIC FRONT INTO
MONTANA MONDAY AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY TUESDAY. WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH TUESDAY HAS SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR INTO NEBRASKA. THUS HIGHS STILL IN
THE MID 40S FAR SOUTHWEST TO THE MID/UPPER 30S NCTRL. MAINTAINED A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS EAST AND RAIN/SNOW NORTHWEST. A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z
ECMWF DIGS A CLOSED UPPER LOWS FROM IDAHO INTO NORTHERN UTAH
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE SOLUTION FOR LIGHT SNOW
POTENTIAL. BY WEDNESDAY...COLDER WITH HIGHS MID/UPPER 20S NCTRL TO
LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST WED NOV 27 2013

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE STRATUS DECK MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE DAKOTAS INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING GENERALLY EAST OF
KVTN TO KBBW. CEILINGS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND 18 HUNDRED
FEET. WITH THE TRAJECTORY KVTN MAY BE JUST ON THE PERIPHERY BUT
HAVE INCLUDED IN TAF THIS MORNING. DON`T BELIEVE THAT STRATUS DECK
WILL MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF KLBF TAF.
NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JACOBS
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...POWER