Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 261207
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
707 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

AT 08Z...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRAIL TO THE WEST ACROSS
NCTRL NEBR BUT HAVE SHOWN RECENT TRENDS OF SLOWLY DISSIPATING AS
THEY DROP SOUTHWARD. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RESIDES
ACROSS PARTS OF KS AND MO. UPSTREAM ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS...MT
AND WYOMING SKIES ARE CLEAR IN MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES IN WRN
NEBR RANGE FROM 59 TO 64 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

TODAY...THE H5 UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX AT 12Z
TO BE LOCATED IN WRN IA. UPSTREAM...THERE WILL BE CHANNELIZED
VORTICITY TODAY. WHILE THIS WOULD SEEM SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF FA AS INDICATED BY THE
HRRR AND RAP MODELS...LATEST NAM AND GFS ARE DRIER. A CROSS
SECTION ACROSS EASTERN AREAS SHOWS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVBL
EXCEPT THAT GENERAL SUBSIDENCE NOTED. CURRENT FCST IS DRY
TODAY...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. CURRENT BAND
OF SHOWERS EAST-WEST ACROSS CHERRY COUNTY TO HOLT COUNTY
CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND EXPECTED TO DISSIPATED BY
12Z. THERE IS HOWEVER INCREASING COVERAGE OF STRATUS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SANDHILLS INCLUDING THEDFORD ATTM. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWS
AREA IS DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS
COVERING NCTRL NEBR. ANY STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT
AFTER 15Z WITH SCT TO BKN STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED TODAY. HIGHS
TODAY NEAR PREVIOUS FCST FROM 77 TO 81 DEGREES. WINDS STEADY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

LOOKING SYNOPTICALLY ACROSS THE CONUS...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
INTENSIFY ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE NRN INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS.

TONIGHT...UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NWRLY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SKIES EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER FROM 55 TO 59 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

THIS WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A RIDGE
DOMINATE THE WESTERN CONUS AS A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...HOWEVER THE RIDGE
RIDING SHORT WAVES/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL /MORE SUMMER LIKE/ WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE THE
CREST OF THE RIDGE AND CAUSE A SFC LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE ALONG
WITH A TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS. MODELS STILL DIFFERING ON THE STRENGTH OF
LOW PRESSURE AND HOW STRONG THE CAP WILL BE. THUS STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY. THE LATEST GFS HAS GONE
DRIER WHILE THE ECMWF HAS INCREASED QPF ACROSS THE AREA. ONE
AGREEMENT IS A SLIGHT BOOST OF TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

SOME LIFR CEILINGS EXIST ACROSS WRN NEBR...MAINLY NEAR THE KLBF
TERMINAL. RECENT LIFR CEILINGS HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF KVTN WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. AT KLBF...DURATION OF LIFR CEILINGS ARE
PROBLEMATIC. UPSTREAM CONDITIONS AT TIF HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR AND
THE AREA SURROUNDING KLBF CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH. MVFR CEILINGS
ARE FORECAST AT 13Z...IMPROVING TO VFR BY 15Z. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR TRENDS AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

CURRENT FLOOD WARNINGS FOR BRADY ON THE PLATTE RIVER SYSTEM AND
LEWELLEN ON THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER SYSTEM REMAIN IN PLACE. RIVER
LEVELS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL. THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AT ROSCOE
IS CURRENTLY JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 8.9 FEET AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE FLOOD ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE. THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AT NORTH PLATTE IS CURRENTLY
NEAR 12.35 FEET AND WILL ALSO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE FLOOD ADVISORY TO CONTINUE. RECENT RAINFALL FROM LAST
EVENING DOES NOT APPEAR TO CAUSE CONCERN FOR ANY RISES...ONLY A
SLIGHTLY LESS FALL IN STAGE IN THE NEAR TERM. RIVER LEVELS ALONG
THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER UPSTREAM OF LAKE MCCONAUGHY ARE ELEVATED
NEAR ACTION STAGE AT LISCO WHILE REMAINING ABOVE MINOR FLOOD
STAGE AT LEWELLEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG






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