Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 200455

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1155 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

Issued at 315 PM CDT Thu May 19 2016

Closed low over the Pacific Northwest. Ridge from the northern
plains into central Canada. A strong wave moving across the
central and southern plains with convection from south central
Kansas to east Texas. There is closed low over the northeast conus
with an upper trough along the eastern seaboard.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Thu May 19 2016

Some isolated thunderstorms developing along eastern plains of
Wyoming will move into the Nebraska Panhandle this afternoon and
possibly into the western Sandhills this evening. With instability
some increasing moisture along the trough will keep thunderstorms
in the forecast. Stratus and drizzle possible early Friday
morning but boundary layer looks to be mixed and will leave
drizzle out for now. Cloud cover and southerly winds will keep
lows in the upper 40s to around 50. Stratus will linger through
the morning and temper forecast highs over southwest into north
central Nebraska. Highs generally in the 70s. Strong cap and have
left mention of thunder out of the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Thu May 19 2016

Fog looks to be a concern early Saturday morning. Strong warm air
and moisture advection. Cap fairly strong Saturday with
temperatures rising into the 70s late afternoon dependent on cloud
cover. Southwest into south central Nebraska looks to be favored
late afternoon into early evening as stronger wave moves across
northern Kansas from the upper low to the west. Better dynamics
moving across western Nebraska through Sunday evening as upper low
to the west shears out over the northern plains pushing a strong
cold front through western Nebraska. Highs in the low 80s and dew
points rising into the lower 60s ahead of the front. PW`s above
normal and half inch qpfs may have to be increased. With upper low
stalling out over south central Canada through the first part of
the week chance and slight chance pops continued for thunderstorm
development over western Nebraska. Temperatures in the 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Thu May 19 2016

Weak disturbance moving out of Wyoming tonight. Can not rule out
a few isold showers however coverage and duration not warranting
mention in TAFs. Also could see some valley morning fog although
winds stay up and concerns if the fog will be although that
widespread. Have included a tempo group for 3SM which may be
accompanied by IFR cigs, however kept the cig SCT for now and
will monitor closely. Winds increase again in the morning with
VFR conditions expected tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening.


Issued at 315 PM CDT Thu May 19 2016

River gages in Colo suggest an increase in flows on the South
Platte River. A strong thermal ridge will develop this weekend
from the southern into the central Rockies. Snowmelt in the
Rockies will eventually cause a rise on the South Platte river in

Controlled reservoir releases continue to cause minor to moderate
flooding of the North Platte river. There are no significant changes
to the North Platte river forecasts east of Lisco. The North Platte
river at North Platte will rise to near 6.5 feet this weekend as
result of an additional 500 cfs release from Lake McConaughy.


.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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