Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 142011

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
311 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

The main concern for the rest of the afternoon and early evening
will be the increasing winds across the region. As a cold front
pushes southeast, winds will shift to the north and become quite
blustery. Sustained winds will be in the 30 to 35 mph range, with
gusts up to 45 mph mainly between 4pm and 7pm. Winds will slowly
diminish throughout the remainder of the evening. Any lingering rain
showers/drizzle will also dissipate as the remainder of the
afternoon and evening progresses. New precipitation totals will be

For the remainder of Saturday night and Sunday...high pressure will
build into the region bringing a return to dry weather. Clearing
skies tonight combined with decreasing winds will allow overnight
temperatures to drop into the upper 20s across the eastern Panhandle
and the low 30s elsewhere. Mostly sunny skies return on Sunday as
well with high temperatures rising into the low 60s across the
entire forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Models in good agreement for the mid and extended forecast. ECMWF
mirroring GFS run from yesterday. Ensemble means are zero and 1
standard deviation for highs and lows through the period. Pacific
high pressure at the surface Sunday night into Monday as the upper
trough moves east into the Great Lakes. With ridging over the
western CONUS the forecast area will be in northwest flow with weak
waves moving across the northern plains. Gulf will remain closed
through Thursday so waves that do move through will be working with
Pacific moisture and will mainly be high and some mid clouds.
Pattern shift begins Wednesday Thursday time frame as strong system
moves out of the Gulf of Alaska and strengthening high over the
Southeast CONUS.

What does this mean for western Nebraska? Above normal temperatures
through the period some 5 to 15 degrees F above normal and lows 5 to
10 degrees F above normal. Dry through the week with chances
increasing through next weekend as a deep trough approaches from the
west and the Gulf opens up.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

The main aviation concern over the next day will be the increasing
winds this afternoon. Winds are expected to increase to near 30
knots sustained and gusts up to 40 to 45 knots. The best chance
for peak wind gusts will be around 22Z Saturday to 00Z Sunday.
Winds will then diminish during the evening hours. Winds will
remain near 10 knots for the reminder of the overnight period and
into Sunday morning. Any lingering rain showers/drizzle around
this afternoon will also end in the evening with dry weather and
VFR conditions returning to both terminals.




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