Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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325
FXUS63 KLBF 031000
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
400 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

H5 ANALYSIS TONIGHT HAS A CLOSED LOW IN THE VICINITY OF LINCOLN
NEBRASKA...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE SSW INTO SRN NEW MEXICO
AND FAR WESTERN TX. DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WAS
NOTED OVER THE BAHAMAS WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NWD INTO SRN NEW
ENGLAND. WEST OF THE TROUGH...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED
FROM JUST OFF THE COAST OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON...NWD INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA. PER CURRENT WV IMAGERY...THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...WHICH WAS LOCATED OVER SERN NEBRASKA...HAS MOVED TO THE NE
AND WAS ROUGHLY LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL IOWA AS OF 3 AM CST.
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING LOW...LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FROM
SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...SOME LIGHT
SNOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE BLACK HILLS TONIGHT...AND HAS
APPROACHED THE PINE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF
NEBRASKA. VISBYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LIGHT SNOW HAVE BEEN IN
THE 5 TO 7 MILE RANGE OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN IOWA...WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
NOTED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF NEBRASKA. FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...THIS GRADIENT HAS RELAXED OVERNIGHT...WHICH HAS
ALLOWED WINDS TO DIMINISH INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE.
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CST RANGED FROM 17 DEGREES AT OGALLALA TO
25 DEGREES AT THEDFORD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

THE THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST TODAY...AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN FORECASTING CHALLENGES. FOR
TODAY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE BLACK
HILLS...WEAK LIFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PINE RIDGE THIS
MORNING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE...CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME WEAK LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC
LAYER THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS LAYER REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...SO EVEN MEAGER LIFT WILL SUPPORT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
INVOF THE PINE RIDGE THIS MORNING. WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE PINE RIDGE THIS MORNING. LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS LIGHT SNOW AS LIFT IS VERY
MEAGER THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON...LIFT WEAKENS
SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE DENDRITIC LAYER DRIES
OUT...SO WILL END ANY CHANCE FOR SNOW BY MID AFTERNOON. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOWCOVER...HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. THE MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR HIGHS TDY AND WERE
UTILIZED. THE ECMWF GUIDANCE SEEMED TOO WARM FOR TDY WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND WAS DISCARDED. FOR
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER AND SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WEST AT UNDER 10 MPH. SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT...AND WITH THE
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE...A GOOD SETUP IS IN PLACE FOR COLD
TEMPERATURES IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. LOWS WERE
DECREASED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT FROM THE INHERITED
FCST TO BETTER REFLECT THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. FOR NORTH
PLATTE...LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 3-5 DEGREES BELOW ZERO AS
A GOOD COLD AIR DRAINAGE SETUP EXISTS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE LINGERING EFFECT
OF THE DEEP SNOW COVER FOR A LARGE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE ARE
ALSO A FEW DISTURBANCES TO WATCH.

MODEL 850 MB TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW 0C UNTIL SATURDAY...THEN JUST
A LITTLE ABOVE 0C FOR A DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT KNOCKS THEM BACK
DOWN TO NEGATIVE TERRITORY. THE MEX MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE COOLING EFFECT OF THE SNOW...WITH MOST HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S OVER THE DEEPER SNOW COVER. THE EC MOS
GUIDANCE IS OPTIMISTIC WITH HIGH INTO THE 40S AND 50S. THINK THE
HEAVY SNOW COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BEING ABLE TO WARM
MUCH...AND BEING OVER 6 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...AND PARTS
OVER A FOOT...EXPECT THE SNOW TO IMPACT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM
FORECAST. THUS HIGHS ONLY INTO THE 30S...EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN
AREAS WILL LITTLE SNOW COVER...WHERE TEMPS GET SHOULD BE ABLE TO
WARM INTO THE LOWER 40S. LOWS WILL BE COOL TO COOL
SEASONAL...HOWEVER AS DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...IF TIMING
IS OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD BE MILD THANKS TO CLOUD COVER.

MODELS BRING THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH
THE 00Z AND WILL INTRODUCE SLGHT CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THE PASSAGE.
UNSURE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH THIS PACIFIC
SYSTEM...BUT THE LOWER LEVELS MAY SEE AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE DUE
TO THE SNOW MELTING/SUBLIMATING. SYSTEM IS WEAK AND DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP WHICH SHOULD BE SNOW AS TEMPS COLD
ENOUGH THROUGH THE COLUMN.

BRIEF RIDGE FOR SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE GFS/CANADIAN ARE STRONGER THAN THE EC AND DIG THE
OPEN WAVE FURTHER INTO KS. THE DEEPER/SOUTHERN TRACK COULD RESULT
IN A BETTER SHOT AT LIGHT SNOW. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AND SEE
WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND.

RIDGE REALLY AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE FLOW BECOMES NEARLY NORTHERLY. ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER RIDES S
ACROSS THE PLAINS. OFTEN WITH A PATTERN LIKE THIS A SIGNIFICANT
TEMP GRADIENT FROM WARM WEST TO COLD EAST DEVELOPS. THIS ALSO
COULD BE ENHANCED BY THE SNOW COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

WINDS WILL DECREASE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED TO AROUND 10SM.
DRIFTING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN. SNOW HAS ENDED FOR THE
MOST PART AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE INTO VFR CATEGORIES
TOWARDS SUNRISE. NORTH WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...POWER



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