Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 172326 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
626 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Primary concern tonight is the wind potential into the evening
hours, and subsequent impacts on low temperatures.

A strong surface low (~991mb to 993mb) over Eastern Nebraska/Western
Iowa early this afternoon, will quickly move into the Upper
Peninsula of Michigan by the early morning hours on Tuesday. As
this area of low pressure moves to the northeast, a Pacific Cold
front will race across the Northern High Plains. High pressure will
swiftly begin to build in across the Central Rockies, which will
result in strong pressure rises across Western and North Central
Nebraska during the late afternoon hours today and into the early
evening hours tonight. Wind gusts in excess of 30kts are possible
generally west of a United States Highway 183 line through the late
afternoon and early evening hours. Winds will gradually decrease
during the nighttime hours as the sharp pressure rises transition
off to the east...with winds become `light` at around 5 to 15kts near
sunrise tomorrow. While CAA will be ushering in cooler temperatures
throughout the nighttime hours tonight...temperatures won`t fall off
to fast due to mechanical mixing. Believe the best opportunity for
temperatures to `fall off` tonight, is during the early morning
hours on Tuesday when winds decrease to around 5-15kts, at which
time an ideal drainage setup will be in place across most areas.

Surface high pressure (~1018mb 1019mb) over Southwestern Wyoming
during the early morning hours on Tuesday, will slide east onto the
High Plains by the afternoon hours tomorrow. Winds for most of the
daylight hours will be from the west to west northwest in response
to the movement of this high, but will back to the southwest near
sunset as the high lifts off into the Iowa/Missouri region. High
temperatures will be near normal tomorrow, with increasing mid to
high clouds in the afternoon hours ahead of an approaching shortwave.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

An upper level trough will cross the region Tuesday night through
Wednesday night. Highest pops near 40 percent Tuesday night into
Wednesday will be across north central Nebraska. Slight chance
pops extend as far south as the Interstate 80 corridor. As the
upper level trough digs deeper across the Plains on Wednesday,
cooler air will continue to move into the area. 850 mb
temperatures will drop into the 5-8 C range resulting in surface
temperatures from 55 to around 60.

As a strong upper level ridge builds across the western US on
Thursday, strong surface high pressure to build across the
central Plains. Highs remain slightly below normal in the lower

Dry and quiet conditions will prevail for the remainder of the
week and into the weekend as the broad upper level ridge builds
into the central conus. Expect a warming temperature trend into
the weekend as temperatures rise to the low and mid 70s by
Saturday. Upper ridge axis propagates over the central conus by
Monday for yet another day of mild highs in the upper 60s to lower
70s. Across the west Coast, an upper trough with onshore flow
sets up again.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Sfc observations suggest the strong winds underway this aftn could
weaken with the loss of heating after sunset...around 00Z. The
dry sfc air suggests the 40-50kt winds just off the sfc would
decouple this evening.

Weak sfc high pressure across WY will build east overnight and
through Neb/KS Tuesday. Very dry air will remain in place during
this time presenting VFR across all of Western and Ncntl Neb.


Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Critical to near critical fire weather conditions are expected for
the remainder of the afternoon hours today and into the early
evening hours tonight. A strong Pacific cold front was moving across
Western Nebraska this afternoon, and switching southerly winds to
the west. Above the surface, a very potent jet was nosing onto the
High Plains, with strong mechanical mixing transferring some of this
momentum to the surface. As of early this afternoon, wind gusts in
excess of 40kts were occurring over the Nebraska Panhandle. While
minimum relative humidity values have been higher that expected for
most of the daylight hours, the dry downsloping nature of the
westerly winds combined with intense mechanical mixing, will inhibit
relative humidity recovery this evening, especially across
Southwestern Nebraska. Any range fire that becomes established in
the cured fuels, even with less than ideal relative humidity values,
will have the potential to burn out of control given the very strong


Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for



LONG TERM...Roberg
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