Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 120525 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1225 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014 AT H5 CUTOFF LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. MAINLY ZONAL FLOW FROM DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH
SOUTHEAST CONUS AND WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG THE CANADIAN US BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT 19Z SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST...AS WELL AS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM JUST OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST INTO WESTERN
MONTANA. OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOWED
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...AND LAPS DATA SHOWED TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
INDICATING A DECENT THERMAL RIDGE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 12.5C TO 18C FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
MONTANA DOWN THE LEE-SIDE OF THE ROCKIES INTO CENTRAL COLORADO.
ACROSS NEBRASKA...SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE STARTING TO PICK UP...WITH
MANY LOCATIONS SEEING GUSTS TO 20KTS.

FOR THIS EVENING...ONE PIECE OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE
NORTHWEST WILL DIG DOWN INTO WASHINGTON WHILE A SECOND PIECE
WILL PUSH EASTWARD...WHILE NOT GAINING ANY AMPLIFICATION. THIS WILL
KEEP ANY LIFT WITH THE SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THOUGH IT WILL PUSH THE SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY WEST OF THE AREA
ACROSS NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. THE IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE IS TO SWITCH
THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE
REGION.

ON SATURDAY THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND
A WEAKEN TO AN OPEN WAVE. ALSO...THE NORTHWEST SYSTEM WILL SEE THE
SHORTWAVE DIG FURTHER SOUTH INTO OREGON AND IDAHO. LEE-SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY FROM COLORADO INTO TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS INTO IOWA. CONVECTION ALONG THE WARM FRONT LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL DEPEND ON PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND HOW
FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO COME. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE CHANCES FOR STORMS SURROUNDING THE WARM FRONT WILL BE JUST
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...WITH BETTER OPPORTUNITIES OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. ALSO LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER THE PANHANDLE AS SOME WEAK ENERGY MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST SYSTEM. FROM LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
CROSS-SECTIONS...EVEN IF PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP OVER THE
PANHANDLE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE THERE IS
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR THE RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND UNTIL AFTER 21ZZ SO
BACKED OFF THE TIMING SLIGHTLY FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
ALSO...THERE IS JUST A BIT OF INSTABILITY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS SO PRECIPITATION TYPE CONTINUES TO BE THUNDERSTORMS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...LOOKING FOR HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY IN MOST
AREAS...WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEING A BIT LOWER AFTER THE PASSING
OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA WHERE PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE MAY STAY IN THE 60S.
OVER THE SOUTH...WARMER AIR WILL REMAIN /WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT
15C TO 17C SO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S LOOK GOOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE MID TERM...NAM MUCH COLDER. GFS
AND LATEST ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE MID AND EXTENDED
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON SENSIBLE
WEATHER FORECAST BASED ON GFS AND ECMWF. IF THE COLDER NAM
SOLUTION IS REALIZED FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED FOR QUICKER
CHANGE OVER AND MORE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME
SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE WIDE RANGE OF PTYPES. BREEZY WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE
DAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES NEARLY
STEADY OR FALLING SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE FOLLOWED A NON
DIURNAL TREND. CURRENTLY HAVE AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF GOING
WITH A 12:1 RATIO EXPECTED. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S SUNDAY. A
BIG CHANGE FROM SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S DEPENDING ON SNOW COVER...AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST. TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S NORTH
AND 60S SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE NEXT COOL FRONT DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY
NORTH AND POSSIBLY A MIX WITH TEMPERATURES AT 850MB FALLING TO
AROUND -5C THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL BE ABOVE VISUAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY EVENING. IN THE SOUTHWEST...WIND WILL START OUT 160-200 AT
12-14G19-22KT AND SWING AROUND TO 240-280 AT 12-14KT BY 09Z. THEN...
THROUGHOUT THE AREA...WIND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS A FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...CDC






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