Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 182131
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
331 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)

Fog is likely tonight as temperatures will be pushed by increasing
dew points. We should experience areas of quarter mile or less
visibilities tonight. The evening and overnight shift will need to
monitor the possibility of a Dense Fog Advisory.

We`ll also experience increasing shower and thunderstorm chances,
particularly in the south central Missouri. NAM12 CAPE progs
suggest values getting up to 300 j/kg within a highly sheared
airmass. We don`t think severe weather is expected, although,
minus 20 levels fall to around 18,500 ft, which could yield a
small hail risk with some of the stronger updrafts. We think these
chances are very low but it`s something to monitor.

A few of these storms could linger into Thursday as an upper level
axis of low pressure swings across the state. Most areas will
likely remain dry with afternoon highs in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)

Upper level cyclonic flow persists through the late week periods
with a strong warming trend expected. Highs on Friday and
Saturday will warm into the 60s.

Rain chances enter the forecast again on Saturday as a large
closed off low approaches from the west. The track of this low
will follow slightly north of the Interstate 20 corridor.
Therefore the deformation precipitation will occur across
southeast Kansas and southern Missouri. Not much of a Canadian tap
will occur with this system, therefore, temperatures will remain
warm enough for all liquid precipitation through the upcoming
weekend.

A nice ridge of high pressure will build across the nation`s mid
section early next work week bringing mild and dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 119 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Visibility and ceilings have come up since
this morning with generally vfr conditions. Branson continues to
have a IFR ceiling which should improve slowly over the next few
hours. Guidance, in general, is in pretty good agreement
in redeveloping low clouds and fog tonight after 06z with a sfc
warm front just south of the area.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA


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