Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 170433
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1133 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A stalled front was currently located just to our south near the
I-40 corridor. Clouds for the most part have held on for most of
the area with the far northwestern areas being the exception. A
mid level impulse located near South Dakota this afternoon will
move across the area by early Wednesday morning. A modest low
level jet will develop late tonight with elevated CAPE values
between 1000 to 2000 J/KG. Effective shear will be around 35
knots.

A cluster of convection will develop around southeast Kansas and
western Missouri after 3 am tonight through the early morning
hours on Wednesday. Initial storm development could lead to a few
stronger updrafts and marginally severe hail. The threat area for
that by tomorrow morning will be west of Highway 65. Average QPF
from storms tonight through Wednesday night will be around an inch
with isolated heavier amounts up to two inches possible across west
central Missouri.

This first cluster of convection will move off to the southeast
and be dissipating by late morning to midday Wednesday. The
frontal boundary will be oriented from northwest to southeast
roughly southeast Kansas to the Branson area by tomorrow
afternoon. There is some uncertainty about the chances for any
afternoon convection tomorrow. Temperatures will also be tricky
with lower 70s far eastern Ozarks to the lower 80s across far
southwestern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Another subtle impulse will generate another cluster or scattered
convection Wednesday evening into Wednesday night over the area.
Again a few isolated stronger storms can not be ruled out with
marginally severe hail being the threat. Will keep the chance for
additional scattered convection on Thursday with the boundary in
the area.

Upper level ridging will build in late Thursday into Friday with a
modest warming trend for the end of the week. A trough will
develop over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest by Saturday.
This will bring down a Canadian cold front with a chance for
showers and storms again late Saturday into early on Sunday.

There were some questions about the left over energy and moisture
from the tropical system affecting the southwestern U.S. being
pulled up into the trough and central U.S. It appears the leftover
energy and plume of tropical moisture will remain just to our
southwest across the upper Red River Valley region from the latest
12z guidance. Something to keep an eye on but likely will not
bring us any heavy rainfall across the Ozarks region.

Cold front clears through on Sunday bring cooler and drier weather
for early next week just in time for Autumn to begin late next
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1113 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

High Pressure over Eastern Missouri and Illinois will continue to
slide eastward as a warm front approaches the area from the
southwest and a weak upper level disturbance approaches from the
northwest. An area of low cloudiness over Northern Arkansas and
Southern Missouri will continue to bring VFR ceilings and possible
VFR forward visibility to BBG and possibly SGF into tonight while
a ridge of high pressure still dominates the area. A more
extensive area of cloudiness will likely develop late tonight due
to radiational cooling and moisture advection into the area.
Toward dawn shower and some thunderstorm activity will likely
develop across southwestern Missouri. This showery pattern will
likely persist well into tomorrow with some more redevelopment
later in the afternoon possible as a second impulse approaches
form the northwest.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Colucci





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