Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 141754
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1154 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 246 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2014
Low clouds with areas of fog and drizzle have redeveloped
overnight. It is most noticeable on the Ozarks Plateau and
slightly higher elevations this morning. Temperatures are mild
in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Most of the fog and drizzle will
dissipate by mid to late morning. Cloud cover may even break up a
bit by early afternoon before returning with the approaching storm
system late in the day.
Low pressure will develop and strengthen over southwest Kansas
this afternoon. Winds will become breezy today due to the pressure
gradient. Winds could gusts up to 25 mph especially over areas of
southeast Kansas and far western Missouri. Temperatures will warm
into the lower 60s for most locations.
A shield of rain with embedded isolated thunder will develop just
to our west and southwest this afternoon and begin to move into
southeast Kansas by sunset this evening. It will progressively
move eastward through this evening and overnight. Instability
around 100 to 200 MUCape will be enough for some thunder but no
severe weather expected. Average rainfall amounts will be around
half an inch with isolated amounts up to three quarters of an
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 246 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2014
The area of rain will be exiting the eastern Ozarks by
sunrise Monday morning. We will be dry slotted for much of the day
on Monday as the area of low pressure moves up into the Upper
Midwest by Monday afternoon. Wrap around clouds and either some
drizzle or light showers will be possible again late Monday
afternoon into Monday evening before the whole system lifts out of
this area Monday night.
After a mild weekend...colder and more seasonable temperatures return
for Tuesday through the end of the week. Dry weather will return
as well Tuesday and for much of the day Wednesday as a Canadian
high pressure centered over the Upper Midwest ridges down across
the Missouri Ozarks.
The medium range guidance points to a more interesting middle to
end of the week weather pattern. The models are having a hard
time with timing...placement of features...and overall shifting of
the split flow of the northern and southern jet. They are in
better agreement for a storm system to start affecting the area
with precip Wednesday night into Thursday.
Both the 00z runs of the GFS and ECMWF show a Canadian high
pressure centered over the Upper Midwest with steady cold and dry
air advection Wednesday into Thursday. At the same time...a
shortwave will be riding out of the southwest flow aloft Wednesday
night across the area. The GFS is a little quicker than the ECMWF
and the ECMWF is a little more bullish on QPF.
There are some temperature profile differences but the overall
message with this forecast update is...that the potential for some
light wintry weather is increasing for the Wednesday night into
Thursday time frame with the first of two systems for late week.
Temperatures will be below freezing late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning and there is potential for minor accumulations
and travel impacts. This forecast will be fine tuned over the next
couple of days.
The second system which will be the main system will be affecting
the area Friday into early Saturday depending on timing and
eventual track. The GFS is further northwest with the track and
faster and the ECMWF is further southeast and slower with timing.
The overall message for the Friday to Saturday system will be that
there is potential for additional light wintry weather with minor
accumulations possible. Amounts and exact precip types are
impossible to pinpoint down at this time with such uncertainty.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2014
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Some IFR conditions with ceilings
and/or fog linger at KSGF and KBBG but satellite trends indicate
that should improve in the near term. Low pressure over the OK
Panhandle region will reach nw MO by the end of the taf period.
Showers and possibly a low probability for lightning strikes will
spread west to east into the region from 00z-06z then quickly exit
within a few hours. Flight cats will likely remain mvfr while
showers occur with brief ifr possible in heavier showers. SREF
guidance does briefly increase the probability of ifr ceilings in
the wake of the precip, but then lifts ceilings after 12z. Gusty
se winds will veer to the sw late in the taf period. Maintained a
mention of low level wind shear in all tafs after 00z.