Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 142337
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
537 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

...Update to Aviation for 00Z TAFs...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 221 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Has been a rainy day across far southern CWA, however there was a
sharp gradient between rain/low clouds and mainly mid/upper level
cloudiness. The thicker cloud cover and rain has kept temperatures
in the upper 30s to low 40s, while other further north,
temperatures have risen into the mid 40s to low 50s. The clouds
and precipitation were a result of a shortwave pushing slowly east
across the southern plains and was also responsible for producing
severe storms along the Texas Gulf coast earlier today. Focus near
term will be with the clearing tonight, but will shift to fire
weather potential for the last half of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Rain will continue this evening, but only along the MO/AR border
counties across far southern MO. The low will track east across
northern AR, with precipitation ending by midnight. Clearing sky
should take place from northwest to southeast through the
overnight hours. Lows will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s, with
the coldest temperatures where the clouds clear the quickest over
the northwest CWA and the warmest to the southeast.

Should see plenty of sunshine on Wednesday, with coldest part of
the air mass shifting to the east of the area and upper level
ridging starting to nudge into the region.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 221 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Main warming trend will begin on Thursday as better low level warm
advection sets up across the area. With continued dry conditions
across all but far southern MO recently, there will continue to be
some elevated fire weather concerns for the afternoon hours in the
latter part of the work week. Temperatures should warm back into
the 60s on Thursday and upper 60s to low 70s on Friday.

An upper low will lift northeast from the southern plains this
weekend, but the moisture should remain to the east of the low
with minimal to no precipitation chances.

A secondary system will then lift into the area late in the
weekend to early next week and will provide a better chance of
showers/thunder to the region, but with blocking pattern setting
up, the timing of this may still be in question.

Temperatures through the weekend and into early next week should
remain mild with highs in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 537 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

An area of rain continues to track across Arkansas into far
southern Missouri early this evening. The rain along with MVFR to
IFR conditions will continue to impact the KBBG site early this
evening. The rain will spread out of the area later this evening
with improving flight conditions. Otherwise VFR conditions are
expected at the TAF sites.

Winds will be out of the north to northwest through out the TAF
period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Wise



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