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000
FXUS63 KSGF 120445
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1145 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. AS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR AND
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE BUILD ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT NO PRECIP HAS BEEN INDICATED BY RADAR AS OF
YET. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM
ALONG THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
MISSOURI BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY WITH THIS PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT. MLCAPE WAS ABOUT A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG WHICH MAY PRODUCE
SOME RUMBLES  OF THUNDER BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON.

A COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN FOR OVERNIGHT. WINDS
SHOULD STAY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...JUST ENOUGH
TO KEEP WIDESPREAD FROST FROM BEING AN ISSUE. BUT THERE WILL BE A
RISK FOR PATCHY FROST IN PROTECTED AREAS AND VALLEYS ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSOURI AND ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE PLATEAU.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S PERHAPS A FEW MID 30S
READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST SPOTS WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TOMORROW.
SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOLER THAN IT WAS TODAY. MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A
DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO WARM UP THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
AROUND SEASONABLE VALUES IN THE MIDDLE 70S. A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT
OF THE WIND ON TUESDAY WILL REALLY BOOST AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE
MIDDLE AND EVEN UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

12Z SUITE OF MODEL OUTPUT OFFERS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER AS A CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE WEAK
UPPER LOW...AND WHETHER OR NOT A COLD FRONT CAN MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST (GFS/GEM ARE IN FAVOR WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THIS FEATURE TO OUR NORTH). REGARDLESS...THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS
INDICATE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ARE MORE QUESTIONABLE
GIVEN WANING UPPER SUPPORT AND WILL SIDE WITH CLIMATOLOGY (SLIGHT
CHANCE) FOR THE TIME BEING.

TEMPERATURE WISE...NOT LOOKING AT ANY BIG SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES AS
THE OVERALL FLOW WILL BE ZONAL. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD RESULT IN AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL ALSO
BE AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE GIVEN PROGGED 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS CELSIUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH SOME
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRIFFIN
LONG TERM...GAGAN
AVIATION...SCHAUMANN