Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 142300

500 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 113 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

Southerly winds were continuing to bring warm and moist air into
the Ozarks this afternoon. This will continue as a storm system
moves across the Plains today and into the area this evening.
Temperatures were well above normal for this part of the year with
most location in the middle 50s to middle 60s.

The storm system that will bring rain to the region was currently
producing rain and a few thunderstorms across Oklahoma and Kansas.
The system is expected to begin to impact the Ozarks by early this
evening and produce rain through much of the overnight hours.

Temperatures will move very little through the day Monday with
morning lows around 50 and highs only in the middle 50s. Rain
will continue through the day as the stacked slow makes its way
towards the Great Lakes with some lingering light rain continuing
into Monday afternoon. The system will also bring with it more
seasonable temperatures as Canadian high pressure slides south
across the plains and filters into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 113 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

The region should see a slow clearing trend starting late Monday
night and continuing through Tuesday and into Wednesday. Models
continue to indicate that this may be the only period this week
that the Ozarks will have a chance for some sunshine as another
storm system is expected to begin to impact the region as early as
late Wednesday night. Even with the mostly clear skies,
temperatures will be more December like with highs in the middle
30s to lower 40s both days.

The next system continues to make its way towards the area towards
the second half of the week. There remains some timing and
coverage differences with the models, but the overall trend is for
several rounds of precipitation beginning as early as Thursday
morning through Saturday morning. The temperatures at this point
would support periods of snow during the overnight with changes to
rain or rain/snow mix during the afternoons.

The system then moves east and is replaced by surface high
pressure with clearing skies and normal temperatures for late


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 455 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

Upper level system was located over southwest Kansas early this
evening with a steady south wind across the area in advance of the
surface low over western Kansas. The band of showers and embedded
thunder were pushing into eastern Kansas and should begin to
affect the TAF sites this evening. Have adjusted slightly later in
time with the arrival of the rain at the TAF sites from the
previous TAFS but the general trend of lowering ceilings back into
MVFR and IFR look good. Rain should begin to clear out of here on
Monday morning with ceilings rising back into MVFR and then VFR
during the day. Main aviation problem on Monday will be with
strong surface winds behind the low out of the west and then
northwest with sustained winds of 15 to 20 and gusts of 25 to 30
kts possible.




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