Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 180508
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1208 AM CDT Mon May 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

After early morning severe storms, a much calmer day has been
observed across the region today. Airmass recovery has been slowed
considerably by ample mid/high level cloud cover, which is just now
starting to exit from west to east. Mesoanalysis shows marginal deep
layer shear (30-35kt) and surface based CAPE on the order of
500-1000 J/kg. However, when looking at mixed layer CAPE, values
drop considerably, into the low hundreds. With an overall lack of
focusing mechanisms and weak thermo in place, it will be rather
tough to get more than just scattered shower and storm development
over the next few hours. Severe weather is not expected with
anything that can develop.

Heading into tonight, models continue to hint at some shower and
thunderstorm potential across south central Missouri. The NAM is an
overly aggressive outlier. This is likely due, in part, to not
handling the current low level environment all that well (dewpoints
across the area are not in the 70s). As a result, that solution has
been discarded. At this time, the best PoPs have been placed across
south central Missouri, but if trends continue, PoP values will need
to be lowered area wide for the rest of this afternoon through
tonight.

A cold front will move into the area from the north first thing
Monday morning. The airmass change will lag a bit, as a result
another day of near or above average high temperatures is expected.
The potential for scattered showers and storms remains for areas
along/southeast of the I-44 corridor through the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

A cooler airmass will enter the region Monday night, setting the
stage for what will likely be a period of at or below average
temperatures for the remainder of the workweek.

Quiet weather conditions Monday night and Tuesday will be short
lived as another disturbance moves through the area Tuesday night
and Wednesday bringing a very good chance of rain and embedded
thunder to the region. Severe weather is not expected with this
activity.

Well below average temperatures are expected Wednesday and Thursday
with highs in most areas in the 60s. Temperatures will begin to
moderate Friday, returning to at/above average next weekend as the
upper pattern returns to an unsettled state and opens up low level
southerly flow.

Rain chances will increase next weekend as yet another closed upper
low moves from the central Rockies into the Plains. Will need to
keep an eye on the potential for robust convection given this
pattern coinciding with the holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

Confidence is increasing that fog will develop late tonight as
winds become light. MVFR conditions will be likely with pockets of
IFR developing. Isolated areas of LIFR will be possible. The fog
will then lift early Monday morning as a cold front moves through
the region. VFR conditions are expected by late morning with light
north to northwest surface winds.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann





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