Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 251642
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1142 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

...18 UTC Balloon Release Scheduled...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1141 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are in the process of
developing across extreme southeastern Kansas as an area of
isentropic upglide taps into elevated instability. The coverage of
these showers and thunderstorms will continue to expand into early
this afternoon as they shift into west-central and eventually
central Missouri. The severe potential with this activity will be
fairly low...with hail up to the size of nickels being the primary
hazard.

The threat for surface-based thunderstorms will then increase later
this afternoon across extreme southeastern Kansas and southwestern
Missouri as a warm front continues to lift north across northeastern
Oklahoma and northern Arkansas. The initial convective mode will
still likely be supercells with an attendant large hail threat up to
the size of ping pong balls. There will also be a threat for an
isolated tornado as these storms will have a tendency to track east
along the warm front.

Convective mode will then become messy as we head into this evening
as overall thunderstorm coverage increases. While a few supercells
will certainly remain possible into this evening, line segments will
become increasingly likely due to increased large scale ascent and
cold pool conglomeration. Damaging wind gusts over 60 mph will be
the primary hazard with these line segments. Low level shear vectors
will also promote isolated tornado potential with any line segments
bowing towards the northeast (especially along the warm front). The
threat for severe storms will then diminish overnight

The current placement of the Flood Watch remains on track as we are
looking at the potential for a window of training thunderstorms near
that warm front this evening. Rainfall amounts of 1-2" with local
amounts up to 3" appear likely roughly along and south if I-44.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Our first round of severe storms in quite some time was observed
across the region Tuesday evening. Several hail reports were
received as relatively high based supercells sprinted eastward
across the region. Yet another active afternoon/evening is on tap
for the area today. Although the forecast for today/tonight is a
bit more challenging.

Effective front has shifted south of the area, with temperatures
and dewpoints falling through the 50s and into the 40s across much
of the area. Observing an increase in ground fog reports during
the past hour, especially in areas where rainfall was received
yesterday. This ground fog will be patch in nature, occasionally
dropping below 1 mile at times.

The big question for today is just how far north the boundary to
our south will travel. Blurring ones eyes when looking at the
entirety of the short term guidance, it looks like it will make it
close to the highway 60 corridor this afternoon. To the south of
the boundary, dewpoints in the 55-60 degree range are expected, to
the north of the boundary, upper 40s/low 50s will be common. As
was the case last night, a few models are a bit too aggressive
with producing low/mid 60s dewpoints south of the boundary across
southern MO. Given upstream observations, such values seem a bit
high. Regardless, steep lapse rates aloft will support mixed layer
CAPE values in the 1000-1500 J/kg range by this afternoon.

Large scale lift will gradually increase this morning, but ramp up
considerably this afternoon as surface cyclogenesis gears up over
Oklahoma and a strong, backbuilding upper level jet sets up near
the Great Lakes region. Initial convective development across
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas will likely be discreet
supercells given deep layer shear in the 40-50kt range. This
activity will lift north into extreme southeastern Kansas and
southwestern Missouri during the afternoon. Large hail will be the
main concern with this activity, however given the proximity of
the low level boundary and a decent low level jet, damaging wind
gusts and a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

The window of opportunity for discreet cells may turn out to be
fairly short. The Midwest will quickly become located in the right
entrance region of the aforementioned strong upper level jet.
Strong synoptic scale lift will result in a broad increase in
convection along/north of the low level boundary and storm mode
will come into question. Current expectations are for a shift in
storm mode to line segments, which will expand across the area
from late this afternoon into tonight. The risk of hail and wind
will continue. The risk for a few tornadoes will remain limited,
tied to mesovortex development with any line segments that can
surge/bow to the northeast.

The 00z suite of models continues to indicate a large swath of QPF
across the area, with between 1 and 3 inches of rain possible
through tonight. As a result, have expanded the flood watch
westward to the Oklahoma state line.

Widespread showers/storms will gradually shift to the southeast
with time tonight, lingering across southern Missouri into
Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Rain will gradually exit south central Missouri during the
daylight hours of Thursday morning. A mix of clouds/sun the rest
of the day along with cold air advection will result in
temperatures well below average for late March. Highs in the upper
40s/low 50s will be common, which is a good 10+ degrees below
average.

Northwest flow will set up over the region through at least the
first half of the upcoming weekend. This will leave the area prone
to the occasional frontal passage and passing chances at a few
light showers (possibly mixed with snow Thursday night and Friday
night). Temperatures will remain well below average into Saturday,
with moderation expected Sunday into early next week. 00z suite of
model guidance exhibits increased spread from Sunday onward, with
cutoff energy over the southwestern CONUS a prime reason for the
model variability. GFS is quite a bit wetter than the ECMWF,
especially just to our south. After conferring with surrounding
offices, will be downplaying rain chances for the time being until
there is better agreement amongst the models. For now, have gone
near climo PoPs and at/just above average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 606 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Pilots flying in and out of the Missouri Ozarks region will have
to watch for strong convection developing late today and this
evening. Shallow ground fog is causing some MVFR visibility early
this morning. This light fog will go away by 14z this morning.
Mostly VFR conditions expected through midday and the afternoon.
Light southeasterly winds this morning will become breezy and
gusty by late morning through the afternoon. Strong convection is
expected to develop by late afternoon into the evening. A cold
front will move through this evening and the winds will shift to
northerly and gusty tonight. Lingering storms and showers through
the late evening and overnight hours with ceilings dropping to IFR
overnight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH from 4 PM CDT this afternoon through Thursday
     morning FOR MOZ070-071-081>083-090>098-101>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Griffin




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