Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 182016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
216 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Issued at 215 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Temperatures were slightly cooler today than we had yesterday,
especially where we have had mostly cloud cover. Still, readings
were well above normal for this time of year with normals from the
mid 40s to low 50s. The upper level low which brought some light
showers, mainly to the eastern Ozarks overnight and early this
morning has shifted to the east of the area, but some cloud cover
remains in place. Upper level ridging should begin to build into
the area from the west later today and tonight.

The main forecast focus will be with near record to record
temperatures on Sunday (see climate section below) and then with
showers/thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday night.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 215 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Upper ridge will begin to push east into the area tonight along
with some weak low level warm advection, which should increase on
Sunday. Once again, mild temperatures are expected tonight with
low from the mid 40s to around 50. Highs on Sunday will approach
or eclipse record readings.  (see climate section below).

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

The upper ridge axis will be short lived over the area and should
slide to the east on Sunday night allowing for a stronger
southwesterly flow aloft to develop with approaching trough.
Better low level moisture transport and warm air advection will
take place so that likely showers with scattered thunderstorms
will be possible in the western CWA by the 06-12z Mon time frame.
The better instability and lift with the shortwave will be on
Monday across the whole CWA. Most of the shortwave trough should
push through the area by 12z Tue, with only low pops remaining in
the far eastern CWA Tue morning.

More above normal temperatures will be in place for much of the
remainder of the week, but a stronger storm system will begin to
push into the area on Thursday night into Friday and will bring
the next round of showers and thunderstorms to the region.

Cooler temperatures are then expected for Friday into Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1123 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

An upper level low was moving across the region today and will
bring periods of MVFR to IFR ceilings to terminals across the
region today. Low cloud cover is expected to fill in across the
region around sunrise Sunday morning with MVFR to IFR ceilings
widespread over the region as a front nears the region.


Issued at 215 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Record Highs/YearFeb 18thFeb 19th    Feb 20th
Springfield 74/194871/2004     77/2016
Joplin78/198675/2011     78/2016
West Plains         77/1986     73/1981     76/2016
Vichy-Rolla         72/1991     70/2004     75/2016




SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
CLIMATE...Lindenberg is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.