Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 220438
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1138 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

...Update for 06Z TAFs...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)

Fabulous weather for outdoor activities was observed today over
extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. A Canadian
airmass kept humidity levels low and temperatures in the upper 70s
and lower 80s.

Look for cool temperatures tonight with lows in the 50s. Light
southerly breezes will commence under mostly clear skies.

The southerly winds combined with sunny skies on Monday will warm
temperatures into the low to mid 80s. There are only slight
chances for rain late Monday night over southwest Missouri and
southeast Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

Rain chances will increase by Tuesday, and continue through the
rest of the work week. Moisture transport from the Gulf will set
the stage for scattered showers and thunderstorms. This southerly
fetch will also bring a warm front through the area resulting in
warmer temperatures and more humidity.

While scattered storms are possible Tuesday through Wednesday
night, Thursday could offer the better coverage of rainfall. A
cold front will sag into southern Missouri, becoming a focus for
convection. Will need to watch the Thursday afternoon period for
the possibility of organized storms. From a perfect prog
standpoint, there could be a sufficient cape - shear combination
for severe storms.

The GFS and ECMWF suggest that a summertime high will build into
the region from the southeast by next weekend. This will bring
another period of heat to the Ozarks, with temperatures back into
the mid and upper 80s. Guidance doesn`t suggest 90s, but I do
think we could see some areas warm back into the lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Light easterly to southeasterly winds can be expected to continue
through much of the day Monday. VFR conditions are expected, with
mostly clear skies.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Boxell



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