Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 261130

630 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 303 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

A stationary front remains draped near the I-70 corridor early
this morning and continues to provide a focus storm development as
a shortwave trough moves across eastern Kansas. Further to the
west...another storm complex has developed over western Kansas
ahead of another shortwave trough. These disturbances will help
nudge the I-70 front south across the forecast area through the
day. Will keep higher end precipitation chances going through the
day. Temperatures may get a little warmer than previously expected
along the AR/southeast KS borders. Otherwise will keep the lower to
mid 80s going for max temperatures.

Precipitation chances will decrease from northwest to southeast
through the evening as the front and upper level disturbances
shift southeast of the region.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

Much drier conditions are expected for Saturday as high pressure
spreads southward from the upper Midwest. Temperatures and
dewpoint temps should average around 10 degrees lower than todays

From Sunday through the middle of the workweek...upper level
northwest flow becomes well established...bringing continued
cooler conditions. The latest models show a clipper system moving
across the area on Sunday night and Monday. This will bring us a
fairly quick shot of storms with the highest chances mainly
northeast of Springfield.

Another clipper system may impact the area around
Wednesday/Thursday. Exact timing this far out on these type of
systems is pretty tricky, so went with mainly slight chance to
chance pops through midweek.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS: Surface frontal boundary will continue
to shift southward across the taf sites today. Convective complex
will accompany the front through the morning hours, with perhaps
some strengthening this afternoon in areas south of interstate 44.
KJLN and KSGF will be affected through the morning hours, while KBBG
will likely see convection from late morning through the afternoon.
Timing all hinged on the movement and position of the front. Expect
mainly VFR to MVFR ceilings this morning, with IFR conditions
possible in any of the convective elements.

For tonight, latest guidance hinting at the possibility of post
frontal status developing as column cools. Did go ahead and mention
some MVFR ceilings at both KSGF and KBBG after 06Z. Otherwise,
convection looks to be south KBBG by early evening.


MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until Noon CDT today FOR MOZ055>058.



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