Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 200832
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
332 AM CDT Wed May 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

A shortwave and an associated inverted sfc trough that extends
from central KS into eastern OK will continue to move ene through
our area later this morning and early this afternoon. The deepest
convection with this feature has been to our sw over OK into west
central AR with only occasional lightning with the precip over
eastern KS. Will maintain showers isolated tstm wording in the
elevated warm advection ahead of the sfc trough.

As the precip exits, cool (almost "raw") blustery conditions are
expected with low stratus and some drizzle late in the day into
the nighttime hours. Looks like the low clouds will hold on for
much of the area with the potential for some stratus build down
fog overnight in some areas, especially in higher Ozarks terrain.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Thu will be unseasonably cool but quiet with sfc high pressure
centered over the area by late afternoon/evening. Wouldn`t be
shocked to see low clouds still hanging on in some areas early in
the day.

A longwave trough over the western CONUS will slowly shift east
into the Rockies over the upcoming weekend with smaller scale
waves/impulses moving through and then east of the larger scale
trough. With an overall downstream upper level ridge building
over the region and an associated sfc high off to our east,
initial higher (but still limited) chances for precip will be
more confined to our western cwfa versus the east late Fri and
Sat.

As the longwave trough opens up and shifts east, mid level height
falls/better synoptic scale lift and deeper moisture will move
into our area with better chances for shower/tstms late Sat night,
Sunday, and Mon. This is time frame to watch for gradually
mounting rainfall totals and possible flooding, particularly over
the western cwfa.

The aforementioned shortwave moves through the area by late
Mon/Tue with lower rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

Ceilings will lower overnight with rain developing as a low
pressure system approaches from the west. MVFR conditions will
deteriorate to IFR by sunrise across much of southern Missouri. A
few thunderstorms may also be embedded within the rain. Ceilings
may then improve into the low-end MVFR category Wednesday
afternoon as the rain comes to an end behind a passing cold front.
Low-end MVFR or IFR will then persist into Wednesday evening.
Surface winds will remain out of the east before switching to the
north behind that front on Wednesday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Schaumann






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