Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 222036
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
336 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015

...Increasing Potential of Heavy Rain and Flooding Saturday Night
through Memorial Day...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Initial shortwave will continue to lift north across the central
Plains into tonight. Initial band of showers will diminish as they
push east into drier air this afternoon and evening but additional
shower development is expected through the night in southeastern
Kansas into far western Missouri on the eastern periphery of
developing axis of moisture transport.

Shortwave ridging will build into Missouri Saturday as the upper level
trough continues to take shape out west. The deep moisture plume
will edge eastward on the eastern periphery of the western trough.
Rainfall during Saturday will impact mainly areas west of Highway
65. The eastern Ozarks may remain dry during the day Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

The coverage and potential for heavy rainfall will increase
Saturday night as moisture advection increases and the moisture
plume with precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches
shifts eastward. This trend will continue Sunday and Sunday night
with rainfall becoming widespread across much of the Missouri
Ozarks as the day progresses.

The heaviest rainfall will be focused in southeastern Kansas into
southwestern and west central Missouri through Sunday before
spreading east.  Rainfall totals of 1.5 to 3.0 inches are expected
by Monday generally west of Highway 65 with 1 to 2 inches to the
east. For this reason a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for areas
generally west of Highway 65 from Saturday night through Monday.
We will be monitoring for the potential expansion of this watch
during the weekend.

There is a marginal but conditional risk for strong to severe
storms Sunday. While shear profiles will become more favorable
instability will be in question.

Rainfall will begin to gradually taper off from the west Memorial
Day. However there could be ongoing flooding.

Models continue to advertise a continuation of unsettled weather
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Showers have broken out ahead of a mid level disturbance moving
over the southern plain states this afternoon. The 12z balloon at
SGF indicated a pretty dry air-mass out ahead of the approaching
precipitation shield. Precip is having a difficult time reaching
the ground and current thinking is that a majority of this precip
will not make it to the surface as the wave continues to push
eastward.

Additional light and scattered precip development will remain
possible throughout the period, however, exact timing is a bit
tough to pin down at the moment. Better chances over the JLN
terminal. VFR conditions expected through the period at all three
SW MO Aerodromes


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Saturday evening through Monday evening
     FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-077>079-088>090-093>095-101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Saturday evening through Monday evening
     FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Frye/Foster





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