Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 162348

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
648 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Deep southerly flow is in place across the central US today,
helping to again boost temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Low
level moisture advection is being offset by boundary layer mixing
over much of the region this afternoon; this drier air, combined
with a capping inversion aloft, is keeping cloud cover at bay.

A dryline is currently aligned from the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles into western Kansas, where it merges with a cold front
that extends north into the eastern Dakotas. Widespread
thunderstorm activity is expected to develop along that dryline
this afternoon, with convection lifting northeast across much of
Kansas late this evening into the overnight hours. A few remnant
thunderstorms may make it into the far western/northwestern
portions of the CWA by daybreak tomorrow, though this potential
is far from certain. There is a limited risk for a few stronger
storms should convection survive this far east.

In addition to thunderstorm chances tonight, southerly winds will
remain gusty overnight, especially in and around Springfield,
where local terrain effects will enhance southeast winds.

An upper level low will then lift northeast across Kansas and
Nebraska tomorrow, nudging a weak frontal zone southeast into the
forecast area. At this time, it looks like the capping inversion
will be strong enough to preclude significant thunderstorm
development on Wednesday for much of the forecast area, though a
fair amount of convection is expected just to our north (roughly I-70
northward), and a stray storm or two is possible across the SGF
CWA. We will also be flirting with Wind Advisory criteria across
the Osage Plains tomorrow, and an Advisory may eventually be

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Much of Thursday looks to be dry before more a messy stretch of
rain and thunderstorm activity commences late Thursday night. A
slow moving upper level low will move across the southern Rockies
and into the Central Plains Thursday through Sunday. Multiple
rounds of thunderstorms are expected from Thursday night through
Saturday before a cold front finally moves through the area
Saturday night or early Sunday.

There will be both a severe weather and hydro/flooding risk
associated with this activity. The severe weather risk will
largely depend on the amount of instability that can develop
between rounds of thunderstorms, as deep layer shear should be
ample for storm organization. With a multitude of boundaries in
the area, all storm modes will be possible. Exact timing and areas
affected should become more clear over the coming days.

Concerning the flood risk, it appears that 1.5 to 3 inches of rain
will be possible through the end of the weekend. While we`ve had
some time to dry out, the ground remains fairly saturated, with
the water table running high over much of the area. This
additional rainfall may contribute to some renewed flooding of
creeks, streams, and other flood prone areas.

Once the front clears the area on Sunday, a day or two of dry and
seasonable weather is expected before chances for precipitation
increase again by the middle of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Strong low pressure will move from eastern CO
to eastern Neb during the taf period. TAFS are VFR with lowering
vfr ceilings expected after 06z. However, showers/tstms to the
west of the area are expected to move east and weaken with time,
affecting the KJLN area as early as 08z-09z then KSGF/KBBG 12z-
14z. Confidence is not high enough at this point to go any higher
than VCTS at the taf sites. Strong south to southeast sfc winds
are expected to develop with gusts of 30-40 kts expected at KSGF
and KJLN.




LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.