Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 130003

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
703 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

The batch of showers over the extreme southwest portion of
Missouri and southeast Kansas this afternoon is rather weak and
is struggling to overcome drier low level airmass advecting in
from surface high over the upper Midwest. Stronger storms remain
well to the southwest over the Red River Valley where better
moisture and low level forcing reside along the stalled front.

Further to the northwest...thunderstorms were firing up over the
central High Plains in western and central Nebraska...ahead of
an upper level disturbance and subtle surface trough. The latest
HRRR is not showing much of that activity making it this far to
the southeast tonight, but does keep some weak convection
associated with the northern edge of the eastern Oklahoma
shortwave over southern MO. So for now will continue trend of
gradual eastward spread of showers and storms, but if the trend
continues...central and west central MO will likely remain dry
through tonight.

On Sunday...the NAM and ECMWF show another area of precipitation
developing along the MO/AR border with the approach of another
upper level disturbance moving across the southern Plains.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

The upcoming week still looks warmer and wetter as the upper
level flow shifts from northwest to southwest with a large upper
trough moving into the western CONUS. This will lead to lee side
cyclogenesis and increasing southerly low level flow...along with
several disturbances moving over the region.

We will need to watch for the potential for stronger storms on
Tuesday and Wednesday as moisture, instability and vertical wind
shear increase across the region. A front will set up over
northwest Missouri and central Kansas by midweek, but will likely
not have much of a southern push to bring it this far south.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: An upper level disturbance that extends from
southeast KS into OK will move east into AR for this period. Dry
air will be in place with sfc high pressure extending from IA
south into KS/MO which will limit overall rain potential. Very
light rain will be possible with the best chances along the MO/AR
border. VFR ceilings are expected, but may see some mvfr if
enough moisture can saturate the lower levels. Rain (where it
occurs) overall does not look to have too much affect on
visibility unless an isolated heavier shower occurs.




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