Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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116
FXUS63 KFGF 010532
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1132 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

.UPDATE...

Issued at 1132 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

No changes needed for the final evening update. Current radar
imagery does depict some echoes begin to move into the far western
forecast area. However, obs and webcams don`t show much of
anything reaching the ground any farther east than at least Minot.
Therefore, think the delayed timing incorporated earlier is still
reasonable.

UPDATE Issued at 1006 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

First item to update this evening was to decrease temperatures a
few degrees across the Devils Lake basin. Readings have dropped
off pretty quickly this evening but with thicker cloud cover
moving in from the west fairly soon, think they shouldn`t drop
too much more than they already have.

Otherwise, slowed down the arrival of the next wave of light
snowfall overnight per hi-res model trends by maybe just an hour
or two across the far west (Benson/Towner counties). Models
continue to indicate a gradual weakening of the forcing and
associated QPF/reflectivity progs as this area of snowfall
propagates eastward. Therefore, less and less confidence of
receiving an inch or more but still looks like the highest amounts
will be across the far west (maybe around an inch when all is
said and done).

UPDATE issued at 641 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Only minor tweaks needed with this update, mainly to cloud cover
as an area of clearing from roughly Fargo to Fosston to
International Falls/Baudette is taking a bit longer to fill in
than previously forecast. Other than that, things are in good
shape with the first wave of precipitation this evening staying
just south and east of the forecast area. As for the next wave
late this evening/overnight, timing still looks good for it to
begin impacting the far northwest/Devils Lake basin by midnight.
Will keep an eye on the latest hi-res guidance as the evening
goes on and make any tweaks with later updates.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)

Issued at 231 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Primary concerns for the long term period will be overnight lows
and chances for snow in the extreme southeast this evening as well
as light snow associated with an upper wave entering the
northwestern zones aft midnight.

High res models continue to show a band of snow redeveloping
across SW MN into NE SD in the late aftn into early evening hours.
ECMWF shows a Q-vector maxima push across this region, south of my
CWA, in the 00Z to 06Z timeframe...however, both the latest RUC
and HRRR keep the band out of the CWA although some very low QPFs
do clip SE Otter Tail. Plan on keeping a dry forecast in this
region. A weaker wave and associated Q-vector convergence maxima
then moves into the Devils Lake region after midnight. RUC/HRRR
modeled QPF not impressive with associated precip as it enters NW
zones in the 07Z to 09Z timeframe. Will keep highest POPs over the
northwest prior to 12Z and more broad spread POPs during the
tomorrow period...although QPFs will be negligible in the 12Z to
18Z period. Most snow accumulation expected to be vicinity of DVL.

Overnight lows will range from the single digits in the northwest
to around 20 in the far southeast. Tomorrow`s highs will range
from upper teens northwest to upper 20s in the far southeast.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)

Issued at 231 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Region initially in NW flow aloft with jet streak dropping through
the central Dakotas Wednesday night into Thursday.  Associated
surface low will drop just to the west of the forecast area. While
there is some f-gen forcing on east side of surface low track
moisture looks limited with precipitable H20 values less than two
tenths of an inch. This should limit snowfall amounts to the far
sw fa to a few inches or less at this time. Heights begin rising
towards the end of the work week as upper ridging shifts east.
Temperatures will respond rising well above average for the
weekend. precipitation chances look minimal through this period.
The next decent chance for precipitation will be late Sunday into
monday with the passage of clipper type system and cold front.
Temperatures look closer to average to start the upcoming work
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)

Issued at 1132 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Some higher level ceilings have worked their way into the majority
of the TAF sites but remain VFR at this time. Upper wave still
expected to slide across north central North Dakota overnight
brining an area of -SN into KDVL and gradually moving eastward.
Have included mention at KDVL by 08z and at KGFK sometime between
10-12z. Confidence still remains fairly low just how much sites
any further south and east will be impacted as hi-res models still
indicate weakening as the area of snow moves eastward. Regardless
of the snow, lower MVFR ceilings will also move into the area from
west to east throughout the overnight. Current north winds of
generally 5 kts or less will back a bit to the northwest on
Wednesday and increase into the 10-15 kt range.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Lee
SHORT TERM...Speicher
LONG TERM...Voelker
AVIATION...Lee



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