Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 270314

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1014 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

Issued at 1013 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

wWll defined vort max in se nd with slow moving tstorms north of
it from valley city to fargo to detroit lakes at mid evening.
Heavy rain mostly but every so often we get a little burst of wind
in the 45 to 60 mph range. Once that happens the storm diminishes
and new storms fire up east of it along outflow. As vort max moves
slowly thru and into wcntrl mn would expect continued tstm
chances. bulk shear is very weak and thus the slow movement.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Main forecast challenge will be convective chances tonight into
Wednesday. As of mid afternoon, there were a few showers and tstms
across the area, but the main area appears to be working into the
SW FA. One thunderstorm cell near Valley City produced a funnel
cloud that appears to have briefly touched down. This cell was
nearly completely gone after a couple of volume scans. Now the
strongest cell appears to be just southeast of Bottineau moving
SE. As far as severe potential, just not looking that favorable.

In the area where the funnel cloud report was, there is a weak
boundary, but it has been cloudy all day. Along and north of
highway 200, it has been more sunny with some CAPE. However, shear
is very weak across the FA. Therefore an isolated severe storm is
possible, but it will generally be weaker convection overall. SPC
day 1 convective outlook keeps a marginal risk basically along and
south of Interstate 94, which looks fine. Some short wave activity
moving along the near zonal flow will keep some chances for
additional pcpn along and south of Interstate 94 into Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Thursday through Friday night will see relatively quiet weather with
weak 500mb nw flow...10 to 20 kts with SFC high pressure centered
across the northern plains. Seasonal temperatures are expected with
highs around 80 and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Saturday to Tuesday will have an increasing chances for convection
as 500mb flow becomes southwesterly allowing PWats to rise...adding
instability. Chances will be associated with any wave although
timing remains uncertain. Temperatures will rise into the mid 80s to
near 90 with lows in the mid 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1013 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

tstms playing havoc with fargo all evening. outside of tstm areas
vfr with high based cu and cirrus. winds light northerly except
near any storm. wednedsday daytime expecting much less risk of
storms and a north wind 5 to 15 kts with VFR conditions.


.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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