Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 112333 AAA
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
633 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Adjusted forecast a bit for isolated showers and storms in Devils
Lake area and lakes region of west central Minnesota. Expect
these to dissipate over the next few hours as diurnal heating
ceases.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Surface high to remain in place tonight. Some weak echoes continue
however at best likely only sprinkles so will mention over the
west and south remainder of the afternoon. Clearing overnight with
cellular nature of clouds. Temperatures not too far from last
night with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Shortwave will track southeast from Mt into the central plains on
Saturday. Models in good agreement with any rain during the day
likely just clipping the far sw-s. Considering shear and modest
instability will likely see T. Temperatures should be consistent
in the 70s to around 80 with coolest values over the south under
thicker clouds.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Precipitation chances will continue for roughly the southern half of
the area Saturday night and Sunday as an upper wave passes from
northwest to southeast across the region. The GFS has trended the
northern extent of the area of precipitation a bit further south
(closer to the ND/SD border) while the other models continue to hang
on to chances a bit farther north. After this wave clears the area,
the start of the new work week should bring quiet conditions for
Monday with upper ridging building in.

More widespread precipitation chances look probable in the Tuesday-
Wednesday time frame as another upper wave and associated
surface/frontal system track across the region. Models still vary
quite a bit on the intensity and timing of this system which could
prolong precipitation chances into the second half of the work week.

Highs in the 70s (possibly creeping into the 80s early next week)
will continue with lows in the 50s (or even milder in the 60s).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Diurnally driven scattered cu field will clear out this evening.
With high pressure taking hold of the region, VFR conditions will
persist through the TAF period. Expect high cigs in the southern
Red River Valley along and south of FAR-PKD Saturday.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BP
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Lee
AVIATION...BP



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