Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 250822
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
322 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS OVERALL CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

CURRENTLY MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF RA IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA
WITH MORE SPOTTY PCPN FARTHER NORTH. STACKED LOW TO PROPAGATE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN TODAY. AS IT DOES STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MN AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHEST RAIN
AMOUNTS SHIFT INTO THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE RAIN WILL CONTINUE OFF AND
ON FOR HIGH POPS BUT RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER. WILL CONTINUE
WITH HIGH POPS MOST OF THE REGION. MINIMAL THERMAL RECOVERY
EXPECTED WITH MOST AREAS SEEING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.

AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT PCPN SHOULD BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. COLUMN
COOLS HOWEVER WITH CLOUDS MINIMUMS WILL RANGE IN THE 30S ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK.

RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE FA TUESDAY AND ANY LINGERING SHRA SHOULD
GRADUALLY END. GRADUAL DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN FROM NE TO SW
HOWEVER ANY SOLAR POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NE. WILL SEE
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT
MON APR 25 2016

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NEXT UPPER LOW TO TRACK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THIS TIME BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WITH
THIS NEXT LOW WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR S-SW FA. TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN BLO AVERAGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OPENING AND LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE PRIMARILY IN THE SOUTH
EARLY IN THE DAY. IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE MORE SUN AND WARMER
TEMPS IN THE NORTH DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER
WAVE. THE OVERALL PATTERN FAVORS UPPER LEVEL LOWS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES. ND/MN
WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN END OF THESE LOWS AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE`LL
SEE ONE ON THURSDAY AND ANOTHER OVER THE WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW THE
WEEKEND UPPER LOW LOOKS TO STAY TO THE SOUTH...OR PERHAPS CLIP THE
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO
CONTINUE INTO MON AFTN. EXPECT IFR CIGS OR LOW END MVFR CIGS IN
RAIN AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE PD. VSBYS RANGING FROM 3-4 SM TO
P6SM IN RAIN.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE



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