Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 110110
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
710 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 704 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

tightly wound 500 mb short wave in central Saskatchewan headed
southeast and will pass thru eastern ND later tonight. Sfc low
will move southeast and be near Pembina toward midnight and then
southeast of Bemidji by 12z Monday. Warm advection band of
precipitation moving quickly east thru northeastern ND. Dry
airmass sub cloud layer doing its thing to make precipitation
quite light. But ptype is an issue. Sfc temps 33-34 into DVL/Cando
and obs indicate some very light rain. It is colder east of there
so we are expecting a transition to some light snow. Fast moving
precip band shouldnt leave much accumulation. Still looking for
steadier/longer lasting snow from Winnipeg into Roseau, Bemidji,
Baudette area and that is where 2-3 inches still likely overnight.

Cold advection in the low levels pretty good Monday 12-15z into
the nrn/cntrl RRV. Winds to mix is about 30-35 kts and some snow
showers likely with cold push though short lived. So idea for a
short lived period of snow showers and blowing snow is still
looking good for much of the RRV Monday morning.

Been tweeking timing of precipitation and temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 253 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

The longwave pattern continues across the US with a northwesterly
flow regime in place over the Northern Plains. An embedded shortwave
trough can be seen on water vapor imagery on the
Alberta/Saskatchewan border in Canada rounding the top of the upper
level ridge and move to the southeast. This shortwave will progress
through the Northern Plains bringing an increase in cloud cover and
snow showers for the remainder of the afternoon and into tonight.
With mid level warm air advection as the main forcing mechanism,
snowfall will primarily be focused to the east and north of the
track of the surface low... over the northern Red River Valley and
into northwest Minnesota. Northwest Minnesota will see much of the
snowfall with accumulations of 1 to 3 inches possible.

One half inch to one inch of snowfall accumulation is possible
across eastern North Dakota as a cold front brings strong winds and
snow chances overnight. Recent NAM guidance suggests low level
temperatures will warm to just above freezing this evening before
midnight in the Devils Lake - Valley City region. With maximum
temperatures aloft of 0 - 3 C, a snow sleet mix will be possible.
Reduced visibilities could occur across eastern North Dakota if snow
showers are accompanied by strong winds. This could lead to
impactful conditions if it coincides with the Monday morning
commute. Precipitation is expected to end across the region by mid
day Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Monday night... Surface high pressure builds into the area overnight
into Tuesday with light northwest winds Monday night... becoming
light and variable early Tuesday. With clear skies and a freshened
snowcover overnight in northwest MN...temperatures there should drop
into the low single digits and zero degree range for Tuesday morning
...while holding in the teens over eastern ND. Expect increased
clouds on Tuesday as a muddy northwest flow pattern remains locked
over the area. Temperatures should recover to near seasonal normals.

The next weak clipper system in the northwest flow pattern should
transit the area from Wednesday into early Thursday...and bring
another dusting of light snow. The 12z NAM and GFS are fairly
consistent with timing and intensity of this system, while the ECMWF
pushes the system through a bit earlier on Wednesday. The current
consensus forecast tends to follow GFS timing most closely.. and
thus Thursday in mainly cloudy but dry. Temperatures should rebound
quickly after Tuesday mornings chill... with Highs on Wednesday
ranging from the mid 20s over the Lake of the Woods to the mid 30s
over southeast ND. Thursday should cool by around 5 degrees or so, f
be about 5 degrees cooler following the following the weak clipper
system.

A somewhat stronger clipper system is indicated for the coming week
end... with additional light snow and wind possible. Models favor a
deamplified H5 longwave pattern over the CONUS from late week into
the weekend. Precip chances and amounts could increase under a
flatter H5 flow... while temperatures should remain quite mild for
the season.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 704 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

VFR conditions many areas to start with -sn becoming likely into
NW MN overnight. Winds turning north-northwest Monday 10-14z
period over NE ND/RRV and gusty. Some MVFR cigs as well for a time
but clearing does work south as quite a bit of drier air at 850 mb
pushes south.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...Gust
AVIATION...Riddle


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