Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 221744

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1244 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Increased sky cover just a bit with sct high base cu development
otherwise no changes.

UPDATE Issued at 933 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

No significant changes to ongoing forecast. Delayed clouds
entering the far ne slightly. Canadian radars indicating returns
approaching the far northern portion of the nw Angle so will keep
some low pops going there.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Region will be in cyclonic flow aloft, with surface ridging
propagating in from the west as the upper low propagates eastward
today. A resultant dry airmass will lead to sunny skies across
much of the region. The Baudette area (and adjacent portions of NW
MN) will be close enough to the upper low for clouds and isolated
showers. Did need to increase winds from the model blend as model
soundings indicate an adiabatic layer to over 850mb with 25-30
knts available to mix. Thinking gusts to 30 mph. For
tonight...light winds and mostly clear sky should lead to min
temps in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Wednesday-Thursday...Northwest flow aloft with a building ridge by
later on Thursday. The ECMWF, GFS, and NAM all indicate a weak
upper wave at some point Wednesday afternoon to bring the
potential for showers. Exact timing, location, and intensity
uncertain, and kept the idea of 20 PoPs east of the Red River
Valley. Otherwise, expect dry weather. Temperatures near, or just
slightly below normal.

Friday-Monday...Long wave trough remains over the northeast
Pacific and Gulf of AK. Another long wave trough remains over
eastern North America. Upper level ridge forecast to build over
the southwest US. Short waves will move across central and
southern Canada through the period.

Both the ECMWF and GFS were trending slower and farther south
with the last couple model runs. The ECMWF was faster than the GFS
with the northern stream by the end of the period with the
current model run. Will blend the models.

High temperatures were decreased a degree for Sun and Mon. Highs
were decreased one to three degrees for Sat and little change to Fri
high temps from yesterdays forecast.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

VFR through the period with diminishing wind this evening.




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