Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 170854

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
254 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

...Updated Short and Long term discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

A surface ridge axis will cross Kansas today as surface pressures
begin to fall along the lee of the Rockies. An upper level trough,
located around Baja California at 00z Tuesday. will continue to
deepen today as it moves northeast across the southwest United
States. Over the central United states a 700mb to 500mb
deformation zone across western Kansas will move very little early
in the day but as a northern upper level disturbance moves into
the northern Mississippi Valley early this evening and the
southwest United States developing upper low begins to approach
the southern Rockies this deformation zone will start to lift
northward towards the Nebraska border. Some moisture was present
along this deformation zone earlier tonight and in this area there
was also some light snow being reported at a few observation
sites. Will likely see some ongoing light precipitation continuing
in this area where the moisture and forcing is enhanced through
early this morning but little accumulation is anticipated. The
area favorable for this light precipitation will be west of
highway 83, especially west and north of the Garden City area.

As for temperatures today given the winds backing more to the
west during the day, the forecast 900mb to 850mb temperatures at
00z Wednesday, and clearing skies anticipated late day the latest
guidance appears reasonable with highs mainly in the 40 to 45
degree range.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 253 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

The developing trough of low pressure at the surface over eastern
Colorado will deepen mid week as an upper level low/trough crosses
the central and southern Rockies. The developing southern winds in
the lower levels will begin to draw some moisture back into south
central and portions of southwest Kansas early Wednesday ahead of
this upper wave which will give rise to some increase clouds and
possibly some very light precipitation. At this time given the
forecast moisture return the chance for any type of precipitation
appears small so will only introduce increasing clouds mid week.
With this increasing cloud cover which will is expected to linger
until the upper level trough/low finally moves east of western
Kansas late Thursday. This should place a brief pause on the
warming trend with highs both Wednesday and Thursday being in the
upper 40s to mid 50s. Lows Wednesday night may not be as cold as
what the latest guidance suggests given this expected cloud cover,
especially east of Dodge City.

From late week and through the weekend period a series of upper
level troughs will move out of the eastern Pacific and cross into
the Central and Southern Plains. The first upper level system is
forecast to move out into the West Central High Plains late
Friday. Improving lift will develop ahead of this upper wave based
on the 850mb warm air advection and isentropic lift. This will
give rise to our next chance for precipitation. At this time it
appears that the area more favorable for this precipitation will
be west central and north central Kansas.

For the remainder of the weekend the GFS and ECMWF both quickly
bring the next, stronger, upper level trough into the central and
southern Plains by Saturday night. Given the latest track of this
system and expected temperatures over western Kansas late this
weekend this will be our next chance for winter precipitation.
Precipitation type that far out with this progressive system is
still unclear so will stay close to what the latest guidance has
for now.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1137 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

The models are in good agreement with drier air in the lower
levels returning overnight. MVFR ceilings at midnight will
gradually improve through early Tuesday morning as a surface ridge
axis builds into western Kansas. VRF conditions are expected at
all three taf sites by 09z Tuesday. northwest winds at 10 knots
or less will gradually veer to the west between 15z and 18z


DDC  40  30  47  33 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  42  25  48  28 /  20   0   0  10
EHA  45  28  51  26 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  46  29  52  29 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  40  27  46  32 /  10   0   0  10
P28  45  30  52  35 /   0   0  10  10




SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.