Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 221100
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2016

Mostly clear skies and dry conditions are anticipated through
tonight due to an upper level ridge building over the Rockies
today shifting into the Plains tonight. Meanwhile, an upper level
low is progged to move into the Pacific Northwest today then into
the Intermountain West tonight. Lee troughing will develop across
eastern Colorado in response to this low leading to winds shifting
to more of a southerly direction this afternoon and continuing
overnight. Slightly above normal temperatures are expected today
and tonight with highs today reaching into the mid to upper 70s
with lows in the low to mid 50s tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2016

The upper level low mentioned in the short term will continue to
trek eastward into the Northern Rockies Saturday then into the
Northern Plains Monday. Mid to upper level cloudiness will
increase as this feature approaches with a slight chance of
thunderstorms across far western Kansas late Saturday afternoon
into the early evening hours. This chance of precipitation shifts
into north central Kansas overnight Saturday as a cold front
sweeps through a majority of western Kansas by sunrise Sunday.
Models then suggest this front to stall out across central Kansas
and northern Oklahoma Sunday. A few storms could form along this
feature in the afternoon across south central Kansas but I believe
a majority of the activity will be across eastern Kansas. Very
strong southwesterly winds are anticipated across western Kansas
Saturday then shift to more of a west to northwest direction
Sunday behind the aforementioned front. As for temperatures, highs
Saturday look to be well above normal and soar into the low to mid
80s then reach into the upper 70s to around 80 degrees Sunday.
Lows Saturday night are expected to range from the upper 40s along
the KS/CO border to upper 50s across central and south central
Kansas.

Mostly clear skies and dry conditions are expected across western
Kansas Sunday night into Monday as high pressure dominates the
region. However, this will be short lived as the next system moves
into the western United States Sunday night then into the Central
Rockies by Tuesday morning. An area of low pressure will develop
and intensify across eastern Colorado Monday into Tuesday as this
feature approaches with increasing cloudiness Monday night. This
area of low pressure then moves into southwest Kansas Tuesday with
a chance of thunderstorms across northern and central Kansas
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Southwestern Kansas looks to
remain on the dry side of this system. In addition, the atmosphere
looks to become very unstable across south central Kansas and
central Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon and a few severe storms may be
found in this area. This system will need to be carefully watched
as time passes to see if any storms look to affect the CWA. Dry
conditions return to western Kansas Wednesday into Thursday, but
models suggest yet another storm system moving into the area late
next week into the weekend. Highs Monday and Tuesday look to reach
into the 70s then decrease into the upper 60s Wednesday and
Thursday. Lows look to dip into the 40s with the exception of
Sunday and Monday night when lows in the low to mid 50s will be
possible across portions of central and south central Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Winds will
increase over far southwest Kansas this afternoon with south winds
gusting to 20-25 knots by 20z at the Garden City terminal. LLWS is
expected to develop later tonight as 40-45 knot winds develop off
the surface.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  76  54  85  56 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  77  54  86  53 /   0   0  20  20
EHA  78  55  85  51 /   0   0  20  20
LBL  79  54  87  55 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  75  53  85  57 /   0   0  20  30
P28  77  50  84  58 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Gerard



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