Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 180520
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1220 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun Sep 18 2016

Well-defined shortwave moving into central Kansas early this
morning, taking the convective potential with it. Lingering
thunderstorms across Ellis/Rush counties as of midnight will
depart east shortly.

High pressure builds strongly into SW Kansas today, with 500 mb
heights reaching 587-589 dm by evening. As such, a clear sky will
prevail with few if any clouds and a light SW wind. Atmosphere
warms strongly today, with an 850 mb temperature change of +7C
over yesterday. This coupled with weak downslope will deliver high
temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90. A clear sky continues
with light winds tonight. Lows Monday morning ranging from the
upper 40s across western Hamilton county, to the upper 60s across
eastern Barber county.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2016

Upper level ridging builds across the southern CONUS during the early
part of next week with the upper level westerly flow shunted
northward into the northern Plains and southern Canada. A shortwave
moving east along the US/Canadian border on Monday will push a
cold front south into the central Plains, possibly as far south as
I-70, on Monday afternoon. With a drier airmass in place by then,
the potential for storms looks minimal. Daytime high temperatures
should be up into the 90s during the first part of the week.

By mid week. the upper high gets suppressed a little farther south while
upper level southwesterly flow increases over the central Plains.
A shortwave lifts out over the central Plains on Wednesday. There
is some potential for perhaps some nocturnal storms across western
Kansas early Wednesday morning. This wave could push a boundary
into western Kansas during the day, providing focus for more
additional storm development. Temperatures should be cooling off
back into the 80s later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Sep 18 2016

Convective potential has ended for the night as shortwave moves
east of SW KS. Excellent flying weather expected on Sunday, as
high pressure builds strongly into the region. VFR/SKC. Few if any
clouds and light winds.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  88  60  93 /  20   0   0   0
GCK  55  89  57  91 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  55  89  56  92 /  20   0   0   0
LBL  57  90  55  92 /  20   0   0   0
HYS  57  88  61  91 /  30   0   0   0
P28  60  89  66  93 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Turner



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