Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 202300
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

...aviation updated...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

A strong upper level storm system will amplify across
the Rockies and southern plains through Friday. Surface
high pressure settling across the central plains this afternoon
will shift to the east tonight. Surface low pressure is expected
to develop on the southern high plains tonight and then move into
the southern plains Friday. Western Kansas will be north of the
front with ample elevated moisture so that widespread showers
with embedded thunderstorms are expected, on Friday. Thunderstorm
clusters over the southern plains may limit the intensity of the
rain showers this far north, but widespread amounts from a quarter
to a half inch are expected, with even heavier amounts possible
in central Kansas. Highs may only reach into the upper 40s to
mid 50s given the cloud cover and rainfall.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

A drier airmass will move into western Kansas Friday night
into Sunday with continued cool temperatures. Reading in the
mid to upper 30s are expected Saturday morning with highs
in the upper 50s Saturday. Patchy frost is possible Sunday
morning given expected clear skies and light winds with lows in
the lower to mid 30s. A warming trend will commence Sunday with
highs warming into the upper 60s Sunday and lower 80s Monday. A
weak cold front will pass Monday night with highs falling into
the mid 70s by Tuesday and Wednesday. Progressive shortwave
troughs are expected to pass across western Kansas next week and
into next weekend. It is still too early to tell whether any of
these will amplify enough to bring low level moisture, with severe
storm chances or significant rainfall into central or western
Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

VFR conditions will continue this evening and into the overnight hours.
Flight reductions down to IFR is expected by late morning as stratus
and showers spread over the terminals. KHYS might have the best opportunity
of just MVFR conditions. A slight improvement is possible towards end
of TAF pd. Winds will be NE/E 10-20 kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  47  52  38  59 /  10  70  30  10
GCK  46  51  36  58 /  10  60  30  10
EHA  47  54  37  58 /  10  40  10   0
LBL  48  54  37  58 /  10  50  20   0
HYS  46  53  40  60 /  10  90  50  10
P28  50  55  42  60 /  10  90  40  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Sugden



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