Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 121711
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1211 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

AT 12Z FRIDAY A -25C 500MB TROUGH EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING
TO THE WESTERLY GREAT LAKES. A 300MB JET STRETCHED FROM NEBRASKA
TO QUEBEC. A 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS LOCATED NEAR THE RIGHT EXIT
REGION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL JET AND EXTENDED FROM EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO TO SOUTHWEST IOWA. A SURFACE TO 850MB HIGH WAS CENTERED
OVER FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA/SOUTHEAST WYOMING AT 12Z FRIDAY AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING IN THIS REGION WERE MAINLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S. 850MB TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM +10C AT
AMARILLO TO -1C AT NORTH PLATTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TURNING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY TODAY PROVIDING INCREASED
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH MID DAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE TRANSITIONS THROUGH, A STRONG
+90KT UPPER LEVEL JET WITH A RIGHT FRONT ENTRANCE REGION SET UP
ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS, WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, THE NAM AND GFS
SHOW H7 FRONTOGENETIC BANDING MIGRATING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF SECONDARY FRONT PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT, ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING
EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK FURTHER
EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH ANY LINGERING
PRECIP COMING TO AN END WEST TO EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY AS A SECONDARY
SURGE OF COOLER AIR MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF A
BROAD SURFACE HIGH EDGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
REINFORCED COOLER AIR MASS COMBINED WITH LINGERING PRECIP AND A
PREVAILING STRATUS DECK WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING ABOVE
THE LOWER TO MID 50S(F) TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING
INTO THE 40S(F) IN SOME LOCATIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLDER
AIR SETTLES IN. FOR TONIGHT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS WILL KEEP THE MUCH COOLER AIR MASS LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. ALONG WITH THE HELP OF LIGHTER WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES, LOOK FOR LOWS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S(F)
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH NEAR 40F STILL
POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. WITH AMPLE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE PRESENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS AND
POSSIBLY FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
FROST HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED BY THE FOLLOWING SHIFT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS AND WAVES. THE FIRST WILL COME ALONG ABOUT LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
IT. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL GO THROUGH A SLOW WARMING TREND, WITH
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ON
SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F DEGREE RANGE. THE FLOW ALOFT
DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BE ZONAL, WITH A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE IS A TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. I DID NOT GO VERY HIGH WITH POPS MONDAY,
EXCEPT FOR 30 TO 40 PERCENT IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES NEAR BARBER
AND PRATT COUNTIES, WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE THE GREATEST. IT WILL
ALSO BE A PRIME TIME FOR LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT, WITH THE COOLER
SURFACE AIR AND A PASSING UPPER WAVE. THIS UPPER FORCING WILL
SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, TAKING THE
PRECIPITATION WITH IT.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES BACK INTO WESTERN
KANSAS WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S, MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMER
AGAIN. A LEE SIDE TROUGH IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THERE. THERE IS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE CUTTING EAST THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND LOWER END POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

I ACCEPTED AND KEPT THE MIN TEMPS WHICH WERE ALREADY IN THE GRIDS,
OR THE NEW CR_EXTENDED APPLICATION GAVE. MINIMUMS WILL BASICALLY
BE IN THE 55F TO 65F DEGREE RANGE FOR THIS 3 TO 7 DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DECREASING
NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY
VEERING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARDS BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.
CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTH OF SOUTH LATE TODAY
BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
BASED ON BUFR SOUNDINGS AND HRRR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE INTO THE VFR CATEGORY BETWEEN 21Z FRIDAY AND 00Z SATURDAY.
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK GIVEN CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  38  67  49 /  70   0   0  10
GCK  49  35  68  49 /  70   0   0   0
EHA  49  42  72  52 /  70   0   0  10
LBL  52  41  71  53 /  70   0   0  10
HYS  50  37  64  47 /  60   0   0  10
P28  55  42  68  52 /  50   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT



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