Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 310837
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
337 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING
FROM THE NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH LIBERAL AND NORTHWARD TO
NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEST OF CEDAR BLUFF. THESE WERE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN
1/3 OF KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE HRRR WAS INDICATING A BROKEN LINE OF RELATIVELY LIGHT
REFLECTIVITY MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPMENT
ZONE INTO CENTRAL KS BY AROUND 10-12 UTC. THIS SOLUTION WAS FOLLOWED
WITH BASICALLY LOW POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ISSUE
FOR THE DAY WILL BE A LATE DAY OR EVENING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE
NMM AND ARW MODEL RUNS DEVELOPED A QLCS TYPE BOWING SEGMENT ACROSS
NORTHERN KS, ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION
OVER NORTHERN KS. FARTHER SOUTH, OVER OUR AREA, ANY CONVECTION IN
THESE SOLUTIONS COULD BE GENERALLY MORE DISCREET AND MORE HIGH BASED
(HAIL AND WIND THREATS POSSIBLE) WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE OUTFLOWS/COLD POOLS COULD FORCE
MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMETN FARTHER BRINGING MORE OF OUR AREA INTO A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MORE BREEZY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE
COMMON WITH GUSTS IN TO JUST UNDER 30 KNOTS. YESTERDAY`S HIGHS OF
LOW 90S TO MID 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS ARE A REASONABLE TELL
FOR HIGHS TODAY. THE LATEST SHORT TERM CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MID 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE SW GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR AND BETTER DOWNSLOPE. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
POTENTIAL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OUTFLOW ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, A
LARGE GRADIENT OF AROUND 20 DEGREES COULD EXIST FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
FROM MID 50`S OUT WEST TO MID 70S IN THE PRATT COLDWATER AND
MEDICINE LODGE AREA SETTING AN EARLY MILD LOW JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT 00Z SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF THIS FRONT ALONG WITH
LOCATION OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND LATE
DAY INSTABILITY NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A +13C TO +16C 700MB
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR CONVECTION INCREASING
IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS IT SPREADS EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING IN THIS AREA BASED ON THE 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE AN
ISSUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE PRECIPTABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT THIS TIME
MODELS DIFFERING SOME ON WHERE THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE IT WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT HAVE DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ON SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96.
FURTHER SOUTH A DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS,
HOWEVER ABOVE THIS DRYLINE 700MB TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST TO
WARM TO +14 TO NEAR +16C. THESE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
LIMIT HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH, HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME AM NOT COMPLETELY ABLE TO RULE ON A FEW SCATTERED/WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SIMILAR
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES EXPECTED IN THE EVENING ANY STORM
WHICH DOES DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR BECOMING SEVERE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS/COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BRIEFLY SETTLE INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS BY EARLY MONDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITS
MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z TUESDAY
SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S STILL
APPEAR POSSIBLE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

MOISTURE, WARM AIR ADVECTION, AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF OUR SURFACE BOUNDARY. INCREASING
CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP WHILE AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

A WARMING TREND WILL THEN DEVELOP MID WEEK AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS KANSAS AND A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IMPROVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A VERY SMALL CLUSTER OF GRADUALLY WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
GARDEN CITY EARLIER WERE MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF THE DDC TERMINAL AND
EXPECTED TO NOT HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT. HOWEVER, ELEVATED WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS AND PROBABLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 10 Z. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE TOO
FEW AND FAR BETWEEN TO CONSIDER FOR EVEN A TEMPO GROUP AT THIS TIME.
SLIGHTLY MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A SURFACE DRYLINE. THESE MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
DDC TO HYS. LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP ANYWHERE ALONG THE DRYLINE OR AND INCOMING COLD FRONT
NORTH OF GARDEN CITY IN THE EVENING, POSSIBLY POSING A LOW
PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE BEST CHANCES NEAR THE HYS
TERMINAL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  65  87  65 /  30  50  10  30
GCK  99  62  87  63 /  40  50  10  20
EHA 100  62  91  63 /  10  10  10  10
LBL 102  65  91  64 /  20  20  10  20
HYS  96  64  84  63 /  50  80  20  20
P28  99  71  90  70 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...33


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