Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 191052
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
552 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Elevated showers were ongoing across northern KS early this morning,
associates with a weak mid level warm advection in the base of the
upper trough/nose of the westerly jet axis. Most of this activity
should remain to the north as we head toward 12 UTC, however will be
monitored for update to pops/wx in the next few hours.  Models are
slightly warmer this morning than MOS, and current trend would seem
to support the models low 60s for MinT`s a little better. Latest
NAM/WRF is a bit warmer in the west for this afternoon`s high,
indicating low 90s possible for Garden/Liberal/Elkhart areas.

Overnight we will see a return of more robust low level moisture,
850 mb dew points and surface values into the low-mid 60s once again
all the way west into eastern CO. The higher theta-e airmass should
help hold temperatures up a few more degrees as well, supportive of
the NAM/WRF`s upper 60s low temperatures by early Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

By Tuesday, the surface winds become more southwesterly downsloping
and moderate. Convective chances seem to increase as well.
Instability should be returning 3,000-4000 j/kg cape values. Pattern
suggests the potential convection late afternoon and evening may be
generally diurnally driven with little forcing/little propagation,
and focused along the best convergence axis in the far west.  Both
the GFS and ECMWF suggest a better chances  for more widespread
convection by late Wednesday/Wednesday evening, with better forcing
from a possible weak a mid level shortwave and better storm
propagation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 552 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

VFR cigs will persist around Hays this morning. Some isolated
light rainshowers could also impact the terminal but looks pretty
unlikely at this time. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions with winds
at 10 knots or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  65  95  70 /   0   0  10  20
GCK  92  65  97  70 /   0   0  20  30
EHA  93  68  97  69 /   0   0  20  20
LBL  92  67  97  70 /   0   0  10  20
HYS  86  64  94  71 /  20   0  20  30
P28  87  67  94  70 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Gerard



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