Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 171717
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1217 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, REINFORCING
THE DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF
THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NAM/GFS
SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES ONLY UP AROUND 10C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO
NEAR 15C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED UP INTO THE
60S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER 70S(F) IN LOCATIONS CLOSER
TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE
40S(F) TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH PUSHES
FURTHER SOUTH INTO KANSAS. THE UPPER 30S(F) CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME VERY LIGHT DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY, WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STILL IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS STATES. SATURDAY SHOULD BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD WITH SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. AS
SUNDAY APPROACHES, A LOBE OF UPPER VORTICITY WILL SWING THROUGH
OUR AREA, BRINGING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, BUT WITH WARMING
SOUTH SURFACE WINDS. SUNDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
ON SATURDAY. THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY WORK IT`S
WAY EAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAVE
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOUT THE SAME, IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

BY WEDNESDAY, A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COLORADO LINE,
AND SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO OUR FAR WEST
ZONES.  THAT UPPER TROUGH WILL STRADDLE WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY, AND SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD FARTHER EAST ACROSS ALL BUT OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. MOST OF
THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY, SO I DO
NOT THINK WE WILL SEE MUCH MEASURABLE RAIN. THE CONSALL MODEL
PLACED 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS MAINLY IN OUR WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES
WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY, AND THIS LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY SEEMS ABOUT
RIGHT TO ME.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.  MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH AROUND 10 KNOTS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  45  66  48 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  70  43  67  47 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  68  45  67  48 /   0   0  10  10
LBL  70  45  67  47 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  68  40  63  46 /   0   0   0   0
P28  73  45  66  46 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



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