Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 200800
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

...updated discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 200 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

The first item of concern is dense fog. Pratt, Hays, and surrounding
locations have been reporting dense early this morning. Have widened
the advisory to include more counties based off these observations.
Short term guidance still suggests that a hole of less dense fog is
possible, particularly near Dodge City. This will be watched and adjusted
as trends become more apparent.

For the rest of today, some the guidance is cooler (ARW) versus others
(NAM). With the fog and stratus lingering, opted for the cooler solution.
This might be particularly true across the northern zones. Anyway, calling
for a gradient of mid 40s north to 50s south.

For these evening, a shortwave trof will move across northwest Kansas.
Light showers will be possible and both global and mesoscale models
keep much of the heavier precipitation across northwest Kansas. The
highest pops are in the northwest zones, and this still looks on track.
Otherwise, lows tonight will be in the mid 20s west to lower 30s east.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 200 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Yet another trof is progged to move across the Southern Plains over
the weekend. Again, some light showers and snow showers will be possible
with this second feature. The main low is forecast rather far south,
so precipitation along the OK state line will be light and much of our
area will remain dry. Beyond this, a third system moves across Nebraska
Tuesday and Wednesday, leaving much of southwest Kansas dry. After that,
a dry pattern is forecast from the ECMWF. Temperatures look fairly warm
through the weekend with 50s. A slight cool down is forecast in the
wake of the weather systems next week with mainly 30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

MVFR cigs still start out for KDDC, however, will decrease to LIFR in
a few hours as the stratus deck lowers. Improvement back to VFR is possible
this evening. For KGCK, dense fog and a low stratus deck will also bring
in LIFR conditions by morning. MVFR conditions are possible by this
evening. Lastly, for KHYS, LIFR conditions expected to continue for
much of the TAF pd. Light showers will be possible this evening.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  48  29  53  31 /  10  10  10  20
GCK  48  27  51  29 /  20  10  10  20
EHA  52  27  51  30 /  10   0  20  30
LBL  55  28  53  30 /  10   0  20  30
HYS  46  31  52  31 /  30  20   0   0
P28  53  32  57  35 /  10   0   0  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ this morning for
KSZ030-031-046-061-062-065-066-074-075-079>081-084-085-089-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden


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