Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 250522
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1222 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH TOMORROW. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE CROSSING OVER THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY
FOR STORMS WILL OCCUR IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES WILL BE AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SURFACE CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. STORMS THAT FORM WILL MOVE DOWN INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS AND MAY CLIP THE AREA AROUND ELLIS COUNTY.
CONDITIONS ARE MUCH LESS FAVORABLE FURTHER SOUTHEAST WITH SHEAR
VALUES OF LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND VERY LITTLE CAPE. ADDITIONAL
STORMS MAY FIRE UP IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO, BUT WILL LIKELY STAY
SUBSEVERE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THE HEAT WILL BE THE HEADLINE AGAIN TOMORROW WITH HEAT INDICES
RISING UPWARDS OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES ACROSS THE DODGE CITY AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY. THE HIGHEST VALUES WILL BE SEEN IN BARBER COUNTY
WHERE DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 100 DEGREES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT AROUND
10-15 MPH AND THE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE SOUTHWEST TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY THE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS WILL SEE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS BRINGING A CHANCE
OF RAIN AND STORMS INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE A
STRONGER WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
WESTERN KANSAS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL NOT BE AS STRONG SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THE THREAT FOR RAIN AND STORMS WILL BE MORE INTO
NORTHERN KANSAS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO THE EARLY PARTS OF
NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH VALUES OF AROUND 100 EXPECTED EVERY DAY BEFORE A WEEK
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT AROUND
10-15 MPH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AROUND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT AT THE DDC AND GCK
TERMINALS WITH OVERCAST SKIES AOA250. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HYS TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING CREATING BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE HYS
TERMINAL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HOWEVER, OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE STORMS UP
NORTH MAY SHIFT THE WINDS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  99  73 100 /  40  30  30  10
GCK  70  97  71  99 /  40  40  40  10
EHA  71  97  70  99 /  30  30  30  20
LBL  72  98  72 100 /  30  30  30  10
HYS  73  98  73 100 /  40  20  50  10
P28  75 100  76 100 /  30  30  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WHITE
LONG TERM...WHITE
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42


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