Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 080525

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1125 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Friday night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

Ideal radiational cooling has allowed temperatures to tank into
the 10-15 degree range at many locations this evening. Mid and
high clouds are approaching from the NW, associated with warm air
advection and an embedded shortwave. Expecting a period of mid
layer overcast through about sunrise, under which temperatures
will slowly rise. Light SW winds currently will veer more NWly by
sunrise, and most locations will be back in the 20s by 6 am.

Friday...Milder, but also windy. Any clouds near sunrise will
clear quickly, allowing for plenty of sunshine. With the very dry
ground, and a net change of +5C at 850 mb versus Thursday,
temperatures will recover noticeably Friday afternoon. Max T
grids show a gradient from mid 40s east to upper 50s west. Elected
to go a few degrees above MOS guidance given very dry soils. The
Kansas wind will blow again, with N/NW winds averaging 20-30 mph
across the eastern zones, with stronger north winds along and west
of US 83. For example, 00z MAV guidance depicts sustained winds
of 28 kts at Liberal at midday. Areas of blowing dust are possible
given the persistently dry conditions.

Tonight...Cirrus at times and not as cold, with temperatures
falling to the mid to upper 20s with a light NW wind.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 152 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

The large amplified weather pattern in the upper levels continues
through the time period with no real chance of precipitation.

Saturday the longwave trough moves father east towards the Great
Lakes however a backdoor cold front will keep the eastern half
of the forecast region slightly cooler through the day Saturday.

Sunday as the longwave trough looks to be well off to the north
and east a milder airmass will move in from the northwest. Given a
slight west to northwest downslope breeze, a very dry atmosphere,
and a dry ground I put highs in the mid 60s. Depending on how the
forecast evolves these temperatures may need to be warmer.

Next week it`s playing the game of the straight north to south jet
bringing in cold fronts and side shots of arctic air. The next
cold front will move in Monday. By the afternoon Monday, it could
be another strong wind/fire danger event. The cold air should
push out by Tuesday afternoon before another shortwave and cold
front moves in Wednesday. Each frontal passage won`t have much
moisture so the dry weather pattern continues.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

VFR will continue through Friday. A period of mid level overcast
(8k ft AGL) is expected tonight through about 12z Friday courtesy
of warm air advection and a weak passing shortwave. Clouds will
clear quickly Friday morning, with SKC by 15z. After 15z Fri,
strong N/NW winds will again impact aviation operations at all of
the airports. The strongest N/NW wind gusts of 35-37 kts are
expected at GCK and LBL, while gusts will be slightly less (30-32
kts) at HYS and DDC. Around 00z Sat, expect diminishing winds and
increasing cirrus.


DDC  17  49  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  22  53  26  56 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  21  54  26  59 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  19  52  25  57 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  14  50  28  53 /  10   0   0   0
P28  13  51  26  54 /   0   0   0   0




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