Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 230713
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
213 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Quiet and dry conditions will continue today as weak upper level
ridging moves eastward across the Western High Plains into the
Central Plains during the period. Little instability present and
a weaker flow aloft will keep precip chances at bay through Sunday
night. A developing lee side trough of low pressure will strengthen
across eastern Colorado today, helping to draw warmer air into
the region with H85 temperatures ranging from around 10C across
central Kansas to near 20C along the Colorado border. Under plenty
of sunshine, look for highs up into the 70s(F) across southwest
and portions of central Kansas this afternoon. Expect lows down
into the 40s(F) across south central Kansas tonight to the 50s(F)
in extreme southwest Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

A drier pattern will continue Monday as medium range models indicate
a zonal flow aloft setting up across the Western High Plains in wake
of a departing upper level ridge. Although the flow aloft is expected
to intensify somewhat, a lack of low/mid level moisture/instability
will hinder precip chances through Monday night. Precip chances finally
return late Tuesday as an upper level trough dips southeast across the
Rockies into the Western High Plains setting up an increasingly difluent
southwest flow aloft while sending an attendant frontal boundary into
western Kansas. Although instability is expected to remain limited based
on GFS/ECMWF model soundings, enough forcing associated with the boundary,
increasing mid/upper level moisture, and more favorable dynamic support
aloft will increase the potential for shower development across portions
of southwest and central Kansas late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
night. Precip chances will dwindle going into early to mid day Wednesday
as the upper level shortwave kicks off to the east out of the Central
Plains.

An ongoing warming trend will continue into Monday despite a weak cold
front projected to push into extreme western Kansas by mid to late
afternoon. Highs are expected to reach the 80s(F) across southwest
and portions of central Kansas Monday afternoon. Cooler air will filter
into the high plains Tuesday in wake of a frontal passage resulting
in high temperatures falling closer to what is expected for this time
of the season. The cooling trend will persist through mid week as much
cooler air surges southward into western Kansas Wednesday, dropping
high temperatures well below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Sunday
evening. Southerly winds 5 to 15kt will set up toward daybreak as
lee side troughing slowly develops across eastern Colorado. Southerly
winds will then increase 20 to 35kt through this afternoon as the
lee side trough strengthens.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  49  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  72  50  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  75  52  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  73  50  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  72  50  80  51 /   0   0   0  10
P28  70  46  79  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/ this morning for KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>064-074>078-084>087.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson



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