Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 120718
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
218 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

...Updated Short/Long Term, Fire Weather...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm afternoons continue Tuesday and Wednesday.

- A strong cold front will bring strong north winds and much
  cooler air Thursday.

- Light rain favoring northwest zones Thursday. Much of
  southwest Kansas will remain dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Overnight infrared satellite imagery and surface observations
depicted a weak dryline retrograding westward across SW KS, with
dewpoints in the teens and 20s west of the dryline, and in the
upper 30s to near 40 east of it. Scattered cirrus continued,
while a low level jet was firmly established, keeping south
winds gusty and elevated. As such, radiational cooling was being
strongly discouraged, and most locations remained in the 50s at
midnight. All locations are expected to remain above freezing
through sunrise Tuesday, with 30s west of the dryline, and 40s
east of it.

A weak shortwave approaching from the west is expected to
generate weak low pressure near Hays by 6 am Tuesday, with
surface winds veering SWly across SW KS. This shortwave is
progged to race into central Kansas by midday, and winds will
quickly veer NWly and increase behind the associated dry cold
front. Some northwest wind gusts to near 30 mph will occur,
between 10 am and 2 pm, especially north and east of DDC.
Models impressively collapse the pressure gradient to pretty
much zero across SW KS after 2 pm, and winds will quickly
diminish to light and variable. Models show no changes in the
thermal 850 mb fields from Monday, so mid 70s will repeat
themselves again Tuesday. Unseasonably warm temperatures and
light to calm winds will make for one of the most beautiful
afternoons of the year.

SWly midlevel flow quickly returns Tuesday night and Wednesday,
in response to the next longwave trough approaching from the
Rockies. Associated lee cyclogenesis near Baca county Colorado
is forecast by 6 am Wednesday, forcing winds to become
southeasterly, and again holding Wednesday morning temperatures
well above normal, in the 40s.

Leading shortwave from the larger Rockies trough is expected to
swing over SW KS daylight Wednesday, and the models consistently
track the associated surface cyclone over the DDC CWA. These
solutions for Wednesday will largely dryslot SW KS. However,
there should be a window of stratus, fog and drizzle northeast
of the surface low the first half of Wednesday, as shown by 00z
NAM`s classic light QPF drizzle signature favoring northeast
zones. Any rain of significance will remain north of SW KS, with
rain blossoming along the KS/NE border Wednesday afternoon, and
spreading across Nebraska Wednesday evening. The far southern
edge of this rain event will be near I-70, and kept minimal pops
for Trego/Ellis counties Wednesday afternoon. Most locations
will remain dry. Models still show no cooling at 850 mb,
allowing 70s to return for one more day. Southeast counties,
from the Red Hills to Medicine Lodge will easily reach 80, in
SWly downslope south of the surface low track. Wind directions
will be highly variable Wednesday as the surface low tracks
through, but wind speeds will be tempered by the low`s
proximity.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Much cooler air is scheduled to arrive Thursday, on strong north
winds behind the next cold front. Trimmed NBM temperature grids
Thursday several degrees, closer to MEX guidance keeping more
locations in the 50s. Of course, 50s are perfectly normal in
March, but after several days of 70s, Thursday will be
distinctly more uncomfortable. Models continue to waffle on how
much colder this new air mass will be, with guidance suggesting
the colder air may arrive in 2-3 stages through Friday. As one
example, 00z GFS drops 850 mb temperatures to 0C at DDC by 7 pm
Thursday, but on the 00z ECMWF this doesn`t occur until midday
Friday. At any rate, two much cooler days are expected Thursday
and Friday, as high pressure drives much cooler air down the
plains on strong north winds, and the large cutoff cyclone spins
over the Desert Southwest. Used the 90%ile of the NBM for wind
grids Thursday night, when the strongest north winds are
expected. Temperatures on Friday will again be held several
degrees below mid March normals, in the lower to mid 50s.

Precipitation prospects for the Thursday through Friday continue
to look bleak for SW KS. NBM maintains chance category pops for
rain showers Thursday for the far northwest zones, mainly north
and west of Garden City (adjacent to the GLD CWA). 00z EPS
probability of QPF > 0.10 inch is still 30-50% for these
northwest zones on Thursday, so places such as Syracuse to Scott
City to Wakeeney have the best chances of settling some dust. On
Friday, any precipitation with the large cutoff cyclone is
projected to remain south and west of SW KS, with perhaps some
dribbling into far SW KS (Elkhart vicinity) at times. Kept
chance category pops for Morton county vicinity through early
Friday. Dry weather will continue to prevail this weekend and
Monday, with day and night temperatures not too far from normal
(50s, 30s). Long range models predict a very quiet pattern early
next week, with strong warming Tuesday, as the old cutoff
cyclone dies a slow death near Las Vegas.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

VFR/SKC will continue through this TAF period, with limited
amounts of cirrus. A low level jet was in progress at 0330z,
keeping south winds elevated and gusty, and contributing toward
low level wind shear that will continue through 09-12z Tue.
South winds will weaken and veer SWly toward 12z Tue. After
15z Tue, several hours of elevated NW winds are expected behind
a weak dry cold front. Gusts to near 25 kts are expected through
midday, before pressure gradients collapse, and winds rapidly
diminish to light and variable Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 218 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Unseasonably warm afternoon temperatures in the 70s Tuesday will
once again force minimum relative humidity in the 10-20% range
across all of SW KS. Several hours of elevated/gusty NW winds
are expected for a few hours at midday, with the strongest gusts
near 30 mph favoring areas north and east of Dodge City. Winds
are forecast to weaken rapidly to light and variable late this
afternoon after 3 pm, or by peak heating. Clearly wildfire
danger will remain elevated Tuesday in the warm dry environment
with dormant fuels. Since winds are expected to weaken prior to
the warmest temperatures and lowest relative humidity, a red
flag warning is not planned for Tuesday. Outdoor burning is
discouraged Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner
FIRE WEATHER...Turner


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