Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 240719
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
219 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING A 3000 TO 3500FT AGL MOIST LAYER
NEAR THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME WEAK LIFT IN LAYER WILL BE OCCURRING
UNDER A LAYER OF WARM 800 TO 700MB TEMPERATURES THROUGH 15Z. WILL
THEREFORE TREND TOWARDS HIGH CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY
THIS MORNING NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96. WILL ALSO KEEP A MENTION OF
THUNDER GOING GIVEN THE IMPROVING INSTABILITY EXPECTED UNDER THE
500MB COOL POOL THAT WILL BE CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THE MODELS THIS MORNING STILL
INDICATING A MIXED LAYER DEPTH UP TO AROUND THE 750MB LEVEL DURING
THE AFTERNOON. USING THESE TEMPERATURES AS A GUIDE TODAY FOR HIGHS
TODAY THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS BOTH INDICATED THIS
MORNING THAT THE MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS IN THIS DEPTH WILL NOT AS
STRONG AS WHAT THE PREVIOUS RUNS SUGGESTED. WILL HAVE SOME 35 TO
45 KNOTS IN THE 850MB TO 800MB LEVEL EARLY THIS MORNING BUT BY 18Z
THE MEAN WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN INTO THE 25 TO 35 KNOT
RANGE. THIS STILL SUGGESTS A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AT 20
TO NEAR 30 MPH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVE THESE EXPECTED WINDS ALONG WITH THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY AND KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING GOING. A FEW AREAS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE WIND CRITERIA BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE.

TONIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THIS
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THIS
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS A COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING SOUTH OUT OF NEBRASKA AND INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL TREND
TOWARDS THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

FOR WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A COLD FRONT. CHANCES FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE NILL WITH THIS WAVE WITH ONLY MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABLE. HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM 60 TO 65 DEGREES
WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE
AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY AS COLDER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE COLD SURFACE HIGH RETREATS, WARMER WINDS FROM
THE SOUTH DEVELOP ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS FROM 60 TO 65. A WARMING
TREND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, THEN WARMING INTO THE 40S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

OVERNIGHT AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
CROSSES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THE EASTERLY WINDS OVER SOUTHWEST
KANSAS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND RANGE FROM 10 TO NEAR 15
KNOTS. AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THE 00Z BUFR
SOUNDING DOES INDICATED THE THE MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE WILL
INCREASE. THE DEPTH OF THIS MOIST LAYER TOWARDS 12Z TUESDAY IN
HAYS WILL RANGE FROM 3000 TO 4000 FT AGL WHILE AT DDC AND GCK WILL
BE LESS THAN 1500FT AGL. GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THIS MOIST LAYER
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z TUESDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER INTO THE MVFR/IFR
CATEGORY IN THE HYS AREA. FURTHER SOUTH HRRR AND BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
MAINLY IN THE DDC AREA.

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS
WESTERN KANSAS AS AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM PASSES SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP. ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS
THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO NEAR 25 KNOT RANGE
BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z TUESDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY FALL BACK INTO THE
10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO NEAR 30
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THE
INCREASING WINDS THE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE BY 3 PM. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WHERE RAPID WILDFIRE GROWTH WILL
OCCUR. ANY OUTDOOR BURNING TODAY SHOULD BE AVOIDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  40  65  32 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  71  38  62  30 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  71  41  63  34 /   0   0  10  10
LBL  73  40  65  33 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  70  39  60  30 /  30   0  10  10
P28  75  43  69  36 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-
074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...BURGERT
FIRE WEATHER...BURGERT



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