Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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890
FXUS63 KDDC 212316
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
616 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Dry conditions will continue across western Kansas through late
Monday afternoon as short range models indicate moisture/instability
slow to return to western Kansas as surface high pressure moves
slowly east across eastern Kansas into Missouri during the period.
As for temperatures, a developing lee side trough of low pressure
will slowly strengthen across eastern Colorado tonight as the
aforementioned surface high departs eastward. This will set up a
southerly flow across western Kansas which will begin to draw
slightly warmer air northward into the area. Look for lows down
into the upper 50s(F) to the lower 60s(F) tonight. Afternoon
highs will bump up a little Monday afternoon from today with
temperatures well up into the 80s(F) to near 90F.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Precip chances return Monday evening as medium range models indicate
a series of weak H5 vort maxima lifting northeast across the Southern
Rockies into the high plains of eastern Colorado and western Kansas
early in the time period. A prevailing low level southerly flow will
slowly draw moisture into central and portions of southwest Kansas
ahead of a strengthening lee side trough in eastern Colorado with
H85 dewpoints climbing above 10C. Even though the southwest flow
aloft will slowly strengthen overnight as a +70kt jet core lifts
northeast across New Mexico into the Panhandles of Texas/Oklahoma
and southwest Kansas, the presence of any instability will be
limited at best. Still, thunderstorm development is likely further
west across eastern Colorado in the vicinity of the surface trough.
A few isolated storms could potentially drift into west central
and extreme southwest Kansas Monday night.

Thunderstorm chances shift further east into Kansas Tuesday as an upper
level trough of low pressure transitions eastward across the Dakotas,
ushering a cold front southeastward into western Kansas. Meanwhile,
a prevailing southerly flow will continue to draw moisture northward
ahead of a deepening surface low and an associated dryline across
the high plains, increasing instability across central and portions
of western Kansas. Considering increasing dynamic support aloft
as a +70kt jet core lifts northeast into the high plains, thunderstorms
will be possible late Tuesday. The best chances will be across central
Kansas where moisture and instability is expected to be more favorable.
Thunderstorm chances could linger into Wednesday depending on the speed
of the frontal boundary as it pushes further southeast across Kansas.

A warming trend is likely through Tuesday as a prevailing low level
southerly flow pulls warmer air back into western Kansas. Highs are
expected to reach up into the lower to mid 90s(F) Tuesday afternoon.
A cold front is projected to push into western Kansas during the day
Wednesday lowering high temperatures across west central Kansas and
possibly even south central Kansas depending on the timing of the
passage. Highs will drop back down below seasonal levels Thursday
as cooler once again filters southward into western Kansas behind
the advancing boundary.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours given that the
RAP and NAM both only move mid to high level moisture across
western Kansas overnight through Monday as an upper level
disturbance approaches from the south southwest. Southerly winds
overnight will be at around 10 knots. These southerly winds will
increase to near 20 knots by the early afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  60  90  68  92 /   0  10  20  20
GCK  62  90  66  92 /   0  10  20  20
EHA  63  88  63  93 /   0  10  20  20
LBL  62  88  66  93 /   0  10  20  20
HYS  58  88  67  90 /   0   0  20  30
P28  60  88  69  89 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert



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