Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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004
FXUS63 KDDC 260100
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
800 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 800 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Looks like atmosphere will remained capped this evening, as
stationary boundary remains draped over the CWA. Removed all pops
through this evening. Consensus of short term models indicates fog
and low ceilings will spread NW after midnight, and increased
the mention of fog through Thursday morning across the N/NE zones
as moisture surges back NW. Finally, volatile severe weather
threat setting up across the eastern/NE CWA Thursday afternoon.
Indications are this threat will be east of Dodge City. Model
parameters strongly suggest storms producing giant hail and/or
tornadoes are likely across eastern and NE counties Thursday.
Social media updates are being sent out on this shift to increase
public awareness. Updated to grids to mention severe across E/NE
zones Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

This evening there will be a slight chance for thunderstorms north
of a surface boundary that will extend from west to east across
western Kansas. Given the 2-8km mean winds expected any storm that
does develop along this boundary will move quickly northeast.
Still for a short window early this evening a few of the stronger
storms will be capable of producing hail up to the size of
quarters.

Tonight an area of low pressure will deepen along the lee of the
Rockies as an upper level trough begins to move east across the
four corners region. As this surface low deepens overnight a
surface boundary will become nearly stationary either across
southwest Kansas or near the Oklahoma border. Models appear to be
struggling with how far south this front will drop south tonight.
At this time given the general agreement between the NAM, GFS, NMM
and ARW will keep this boundary in southwest and north central
Kansas through 12z Thursday.

South of this surface front there will be a north to south
oriented surface boundary front/dry line will extend south into
eastern portions of the panhandle of Texas. East of this surface
boundary, across northwestern Oklahoma and south central Kansas, a
south to southeast wind along with dew point in the 60s can
expected. This should give rise may give rise to some status and
fog overnight along with lows in the 65 to near 70 degree range.

On Thursday the south to southeast winds east of the north south
oriented dry line will continue to draw more humid low level
moisture back into south central and portions of western Kansas as
the upper level trough continues to approach from southwest. By
late day the upper level trough will begin to move into the Texas
panhandle and as this system approaches late day there will be a
chance for thunderstorms across south central and portions of
southwest Kansas. Some of these storms will be severe along and
east of a dry line that is forecast to be located just east of
Dodge City given the improving upper level dynamics, low level
moisture return along with late day instability, and 0-6km shear.
Hail up to 3 inches will be possible. The chance of tornadoes will
also exist near the dry line and also where this dry line
intersects the stationary front in north central Kansas. At this
time there still is some uncertainty on where these surface
boundaries will be located, however all models indicated the more
favorable area late Thursday will be east of Dodge city.

Convection north of this front Thursday night currently appears
to be located north of the I-70 corridor but this area of
overnight convection will begin drop south into western Kansas
afternoon midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

On Friday and Friday night a 500mb will low slowly moves east
northeast across the west central high plains. As this upper level
system crosses western Kansas during the day the models indicate
that the dry line will move further east into central Kansas and a
cold front will drop south into western Kansas by late day.
Convection along either of these boundaries still look possible,
especially late day and early Friday night. Based on the latest
forecast on the location of these boundaries late day will keep
chance for thunderstorms going east and north of Dodge City. The
better opportunities will be in north central Kansas.

Highs in the 80s for much of south central Kansas given the 850mb
temperatures at 00z Saturday south of the cold front and west of
the dry line. Northwest of the cold front in west central Kansas
temperatures may struggle to warm much higher then the mid 70s
given the increase in cloud cover and the afternoon cooling 900mb
to 850mb temperatures.

On Saturday the upper low will continue to slowly move east
across the central plains and a westerly down slope flow will
begin to improve across eastern Colorado and far western Kansas.
In north central Kansas during the day there will be a chance for
clouds and possibly some lingering precipitation given the
moisture and weak lift west of the upper low as it crosses central
Kansas. Further west there will be more sun with highs climbing
back into the lower 80s.

Sunday will be sunny and warm as a trough of low pressure
develops along the lee of the Rockies. By late day or early Sunday
night the chance for thunderstorms will begin to increase across
western Kansas as moisture begin to return ahead of an upper level
trough that will be approaching the area from the southwest. At
this time there are some timing differences between the GFS and
ECMWF with this late weekend/early next week upper level system so
given this uncertainty will stay close to the CRExtendeFcst_Init
as for precipitation chances for Sunday night into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Stationary boundary draped near GCK/DDC terminals this evening
will bring variable winds the next several hours. Atmosphere is
capped along this boundary through this evening, as such
convection is not expected. E/SE surface flow returns overnight as
moisture surges back into SW KS. Consensus of short term models
indicates IFR/LIFR stratus and fog likely to affect HYS and P28
through 12z Thursday. Included a TEMPO group at HYS for this, where
confidence is highest. Briefly reduced visibility in BR/FG at DDC
around sunrise. No vis restrictions expected at GCK. After 15z
Thu, strong south winds at GCK/DDC 15-25 kts, and SE winds at HYS.
Dryline sharpens just east of DDC after 18z Thu, with scattered
TSRA likely east of DDC. Severe convection with large
hail/tornadoes likely near HYS after 21z. GCK expected to remain
convection free.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  88  56  80 /  10  30  40  20
GCK  51  88  52  77 /  10  20  30  30
EHA  53  86  51  76 /   0  10  20  30
LBL  54  89  53  78 /   0  20  20  30
HYS  59  82  58  79 /  10  30  50  30
P28  67  87  62  83 /  10  40  60  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Turner



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