Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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342
FXUS63 KDDC 040700
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
100 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Dry conditions will persist across western Kansas through Thursday
night as short range models indicate a weak upper level ridge moving
out of the Central Rockies into the Western High Plains. A weak flow
aloft and drier air infiltrating the region within a westerly downslope
flow near the surface will hinder precip chances through the period.
Warmer temperatures are expected for highs today as the aforementioned
westerly downslope flow persists across the region. This will help
initiate a gradual erosion of a colder air mass with H85 temperatures
climbing up to a little under 0C. Look for highs well up into the
40s(F) across south central and portions of southwest Kansas this
afternoon with only the 30s(F) expected further north where snowpack
will linger. For Thursday night, lows are expected down into the
teens(F) across west central Kansas to the 20s(F) in south central
Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday NIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

Dry forecast continues through the entire long term forecast.

Vigorous shortwave dives SE through SW KS on Friday. Dynamic lift
from this system is progged to be quite strong, but a moisture
supply will be sorely lacking. Sprinkles or virga are certainly
possible during this time, but the odds of measurable
precipitation is very low, and kept pop grids less than 15%.
Increasing clouds Thursday night, and clouds will prevail on
Friday as this shortwave passes. Temperatures cool several degrees
on Friday compared to Thursday`s readings, with a gusty NW breeze
Friday afternoon.

Sky clears Friday night, as progressive shortwave ridge spreads
over Kansas. Saturday promises to be a pleasant day, with
moderating temperatures, few clouds, and light winds under the
ridge axis. Saturday expected to be the pick day of the weekend.

Sunday...Arctic airmass invades the northern plains, with a
portion of this colder airmass invading SW KS. 12z ECMWF has
backed off considerably regarding the magnitude of the cold air
coming into SW KS, while 12z GFS remains substantially colder.
CR extended init has max temps near normal, and followed this for
now. Strong dry NW flow will ensure SW KS, and all areas nearby,
will remain dry.

Monday...Highly meridional PNA pattern unfolds, with ECMWF placing
a very strong 584 dm high pressure ridge over the Great Basin, and
a strong cold 520 dm upper low over Lake Michigan by 6 pm Monday.
A dry forecast is ensured for SW KS in this pattern, with the
resulting NW flow offering no hope of moisture return. 12z ECMWF
slowly deamplifies the longwave pattern over North America Tuesday
and Wednesday next week, but the dry forecast and quiet weather
will continue.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Thursday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through Thursday
evening. Light westerly winds will persist during the period
as surface high pressure moves slowly east across north Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  43  21  40  22 /   0   0  10   0
GCK  38  16  37  17 /   0   0  10   0
EHA  43  22  42  24 /   0   0  10   0
LBL  47  21  44  22 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  35  16  36  19 /   0   0  10   0
P28  48  25  48  26 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...JJohnson



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