Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 111725

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1125 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

Strong but dry arctic cold front entering the northern zones at
midday, with north winds gusting over 30 mph near Hays. Decent
cold air advection behind the front will continue to push the
boundary SW across SW kS this afternoon, reaching Morton county
early this evening. Temperatures across the NE zones will hold
steady in the 30s and 40s this afternoon, as cold air advection
balances insolation. Ahead of the cold front, strong warming is in
progress (already 60 degrees here at the office), with downslope
and prefrontal compression doing its thing. Many locations south
of Dodge City likely to eclipse 70 this afternoon. Enjoy it while
we got it.

Tonight...Cold/dry advection continues, as surface high builds
into eastern Nebraska. Dry advection driving dewpoints down
through sunrise Thursday is expected to preclude fog/stratus
development behind the front tonight. Given the dry air, weakening
winds, and mostly clear sky, followed the coldest guidance for
lows tonight, well down into the teens along and north of U.S.
highway 50.

Thursday...Much cooler. Temperatures return to January reality, as
NE winds and cold air advection emanate from strong 1040 mb arctic
high pressure building into South Dakota. Temperatures will
struggle to reach freezing across the NE zones. Expecting about a
20 degree gradient across the CWA Thursday afternoon, ranging from
near 30 near Hays, to near 50 near Elkhart. Dry weather continues
Thursday, but all models show thickening/lowering mid/high clouds
during the day.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

Dry conditions continue through Thursday with increased mid level
cloudiness. Meanwhile, a strong upper level low strengthens across
the Desert Southwest Thursday into Friday before ejecting
northeastward towards the Central Plains this weekend into the
first part of next week. Closer to home, high pressure looks to
persist, with continued NE winds and cold air advection. Low level
clouds will also increase in coverage Friday. Light freezing rain
or sleet will be possible Friday afternoon, first along the KS/OK
border spreading northward into the evening and overnight hours.
This is due to moisture and warm air advection increasing aloft.
Models continue to suggest a strong winter storm will affect most
of Kansas this weekend. Ample moisture in the low to mid levels of
the atmosphere will allow a large sum of precipitation to fall
across the area. This precipitation intensifies through Sunday
morning, as the upper low intensifies and approaches. Dynamic lift
across SW KS will be intense, with strong diffluence aloft, being
fed by tremendous moisture advection from the Gulf of Mexico.
There is still some question on what form all of this
precipitation will fall as. As of now, most of the precipitation
looks to fall as freezing rain or sleet due to a warm tongue
inserting itself between two layers of colder air. If this comes
to fruition, it will cause a large disruption in travel over the
weekend as well as possible power outages. The best chance for
snow to fall with this system will be across far west and west
central Kansas. This system looks to exit the CWA Monday with
drier conditions expected into the mid part of next week. As for
temperatures, highs Thursday look to range from around 30 degrees
across north central Kansas to around 50 degrees across far
southwestern Kansas. Lows Thursday night are anticipated to dip
into the mid teens with the exception of south central Kansas
where around 20 degrees is possible. Highs will fall into the 20s
Friday with 30s expected Saturday and Sunday. Highs for the first
part of next week will generally reach into the upper 30s to mid


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

A dry arctic cold front near HYS at midday will progress
southwestward, clearing all the airports by 00z. NE winds will be
gusty at 15-25 kts for several hours following frontal passage.
N/NE winds diminish to near 10 kts after sunset. VFR is expected
through the TAF period, with scattered cirrus. Dry advection is
expected to preclude stratus/fog development behind the cold front
tonight. Forecast soundings show increasing mid/high clouds after
12z Thu.


DDC  66  18  39  14 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  64  16  41  14 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  68  32  50  18 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  71  26  48  17 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  46  13  30  14 /   0   0   0   0
P28  69  22  40  19 /   0   0   0  10




LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
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