Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 151103
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
503 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1234 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Short term models indicate a weakening upper level shortwave
pushing eastward across the Great Basin into the Central Rockies
today, ushering an attendant cold front through western Kansas
this afternoon. Although a rather robust southwest flow aloft will
intensify across the region through much of the period, a lack of
mid/upper level moisture will hinder precip chances across the
high plains of western Kansas. However, an isolated shot for
sprinkles transitioning to flurries/light snow cannot be ruled out
closer to the Colorado border where short fuse models hint at a
band of increased post-frontal H7 frontogenesis setting up briefly
late this afternoon into early evening. Weak QPF signals suggest
light if any snow accumulations.

Well above normal temperatures are likely again today as a west-
northwest downslope flow reinforces the warmer air mass ahead of an
approaching cold front expected to arrive later this afternoon. Look
for highs up into the 70s(F) across south central and much of southwest
Kansas with the 60s(F) more likely in west central Kansas. Cold air
will spill into western Kansas tonight lowering temperatures into
the teens(F)/20s(F) by early Friday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 107 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

A relatively dry air mass, reinforced by yet another frontal passage
Saturday, will limit precip chances across western Kansas through
the early part of next week as a general westerly flow aloft
prevails across the region. More seasonal temperatures can be
expected Friday as high pressure drops southeast across the Dakotas
into the Central Plains, keeping a colder air mass in place across
the high plains of western Kansas. Expect highs only up into the
40s(F) across much of southwest Kansas Friday afternoon with the
upper 30s(F) still possible in central Kansas. Much warmer
temperatures return by Sunday as deepening low pressure lee of the
Rockies sets up a strong southerly flow across western Kansas
late in the day. This will draw warmer air into the area with H85
temperatures climbing well into the teens(C) Sunday afternoon.
Should see highs pushing the 70s(F) Sunday afternoon as a result
with yet another frontal passage early next week dropping highs
once again to kick of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 501 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late this
evening. West-northwest winds 10 to 20kt will persist across
southwest and central Kansas through late morning as a surface
trough continues to edge east across the Central Plains. A cold
front will then push through western Kansas this afternoon turning
winds northerly 10 to 20kt with winds increasing 20 to 30kt this
evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  20  41  27 /   0  10   0   0
GCK  65  19  42  25 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  72  23  44  30 /   0  10   0   0
LBL  71  23  43  28 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  62  17  39  24 /   0  10   0   0
P28  75  25  41  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson


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