000
FXUS63 KDDC 132045
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
345 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

AT 12Z THURSDAY A 500 MB UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A 500MB THERMAL TROUGH WAS
LOCATED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN COLORADO. ANOTHER,
BETTER DEFINED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO SOUTHWEST OF DEL RIO TX. FURTHER WEST A -27C 500MB LOW WAS
LOCATED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF WASHINGTON. AT THE 700MB LEVEL
+14 TO +16C TEMPERATURES EXTENDED FROM DODGE CITY SOUTHWEST INTO
THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS AND NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO. THE WIND WAS
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. AT THE 850MB LEVEL +14 TO +18C
DEWPOINTS EXTENDED FROM DODGE CITY SOUTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE
850MB TEMPERATURES AT DODGE CITY AND AMARILLO WERE 22C THIS
MORNING AT 12Z THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT
STRETCHED FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

FOR THIS EVENING, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AND SURFACE
THAT-E ADVECTION WAS OCCURRING NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WAS
STILL LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS OF 18Z. MUCAPES FROM SPC
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WERE AROUND
2000 J/KG BUT THERE WAS ALSO SOME INHIBITION TO OVERCOME AS WELL.
AT THIS TIME GIVEN SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF HEATING THE CHANCE FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO LATE TODAY IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. A FEW OF THE NON HYDROSTATIC MODELS EVEN SUGGESTED
THAT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTION NEAR OR
NORTHWEST OF THE GARDEN CITY AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AS AN
OUTFLOW FROM THE INITIAL COLORADO STORMS CROSSES WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.  AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON HOW OR IF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS IN COLORADO WILL DEVELOP. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS AND ADJUST FORECAST AS NEEDED. AT THIS
TIME WILL KEEP SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS. MAIN HAZARD THIS EVENING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 50 TO 55
MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

ON FRIDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND EASTERN KANSAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS BY LATE DAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM EASTERN COLORADO TOWARDS
NORTHWEST KANSAS. AT THIS TIME THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR LATE DAY
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN NORTHWEST
KANSAS SO WILL TRIM PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH 7 PM. THE 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE
NAM AND GFS AT 00Z SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE GREATER THAN 30C
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHILE 700MB TEMPERATURES VARY FROM
+14 TO +16C. GIVEN THESE 850-700MB TEMPERATURES LATE FRIDAY THE
AFTERNOON HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 100 TO NEAR 103 DEGREE
RANGE STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE THE 40S WILL RESULT IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER AM UNSURE IF THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REACH RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE CURRENT
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED. AS A RESULT WILL NOT UPGRADE THE FIRE WATCH
THAT IS CURRENTLY ISSUED FOR MOST OF WESTERN KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY:

AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT CONVECTION
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY AND HAVE GONE WITH SILENT PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
UP NORTH. THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS PRETTY CAPPED AND INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
DIMINISH AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE, MINIMUMS
HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 60S/70S DEG F.

ON SATURDAY, A MINOR AND DE-AMPLIFYING WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION, A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PRAIRIES WILL USHER IN THE PASSAGE OF SFC FRONT BY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS. THESE FEATURES COULD LEAD TO CONVECTION ACROSS SW KANSAS. WITH
850 HPA WARM PLUME LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION, IT APPEARS THAT
SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR SW KANSAS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S DEG F (VERSUS 100S DEG F). LINGERING CLOUD
COVER FROM CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO LIMIT INSOLATION AND RESULTANT IMPACTS
TO HIGHS. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE 60S DEG F AS A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN.

SUNDAY:

CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. MAINLY FOLLOWED
THE ECMWF FOR GUIDANCE AS THE GFS APPEARS TOO WET OF A SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME (VIA CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK NON LINEAR ERRORS). HIGHS EXPECTED
IN THE LOW 90S OR POSSIBLY UPPER 80S DEG F.

MONDAY AND BEYOND:

THE ECMWF SHOWS AN UPSLOPE REGIME ACROSS KANSAS POST FRONTAL MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE BOUTS OF THUNDERSTORMS UNDER A NORTHWEST/WEST
FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. 850 HPA TEMPERATURES SUGGEST THAT 80S COULD BE MORE
LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD. USED A BLEND OF ALLBLEND/ECMWF RAW/ECEMOS
AS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT IN JUST ONE DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTION, BUT THE TREND FOR MORE REASONABLE/SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WAS ALSO SUGGESTED BY YESTERDAYS ECMWF SOLUTIONS. BEYOND MIDWEEK, A
LARGE TROF MAY FORM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS COULD FAVOR THE
EVENTUAL ADVECTION OF A WARM/HOT PLUME ACROSS THE REGION, THIS WOULD
LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND REDUCED PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION
VIA A CAPPED/WARM ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO
NEAR 20KTS RANGE AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. TONIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BACK INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE 850 TO 700MB LEVEL NORTH
OF THIS FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
VFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 100 TO 103 DEGREE
RANGE ON FRIDAY AS GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP. THIS
COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S WILL RESULT IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE TEENS FOR SEVERAL HOURS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCATED IN
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN
EFFECT. OUTDOOR BURNING IS DISCOURAGED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71 101  71  90 /   0  10  10  40
GCK  72 101  70  92 /  10  10  10  30
EHA  71  98  68  93 /  10  10   0  30
LBL  72  99  70  91 /   0  10  10  30
HYS  71 103  71  92 /  10  10  10  40
P28  71 100  73  91 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>077.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURGERT
FIRE WEATHER...BURGERT