Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 171157
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
557 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS DOMINATING THE WEATHER PICTURE OVER
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WAS LOCATED OVER THE WEST COAST. IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES, A FAIRLY
LONG FETCH OF NORTHERLY FLOW EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

A STRONG 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW LINED UP PARALLEL TO THE GRADIENT,
DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES TODAY EXCEPT FOR
SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30
AROUND HAYS WITH MID 30S EXPECTED FARTHER WEST AROUND GARDEN CITY.
LEFTOVER SNOW COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA
WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES TO AROUND 30 OR SO.

THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST OVER THE
NEXT DAY. INCREASING HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL ALLOW
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO SPREAD EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. IN SPITE OF THIS, CLEAR SKIES AND DECOUPLING
WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

NORTHWESTERLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTER LEE TROUGHING RESULTS IN A WARM UP
FOR TUESDAY, WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN
KANSAS WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURE CHANGES FROM
DAY TO DAY FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
LARGE. THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY FRIDAY, AND
BY THIS TIME AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SOME RAIN ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, BUT THE OTHER MODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER
SOUTH. GIVEN THAT COLD AIR WILL NOT BE IN PLACE AS THIS SYSTEM
ARRIVES, ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PROBABLY NOT BE THAT STRONG SO THAT
LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE NOT EXPECTED. IN THE ABSENCE OF ARCTIC
AIR, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE FAR FROM SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND PLAINS REGIONS INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT THIS IS
STILL NOT A VERY WET PATTERN FOR WESTERN KANSAS. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CAN`T BE RULED OUT INTO SUNDAY ALONG WITH FAIRLY
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD, RESULTING IN NORTHWEST WINDS AT 8 TO
15 KTS TODAY AND LIGHT WEST WINDS TONIGHT. VFR CONDTIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  33  11  43  24 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  34   9  46  22 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  32  15  45  23 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  31  12  44  23 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  29   8  45  26 /   0   0   0   0
P28  33  11  43  26 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH



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