Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 190848
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
348 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

The 00z upper air analysis showed a split upper level flow pattern
over North America. The strongest westerly flow aloft extended from
the Pacific Northwest through the Great Lakes and New England.
Strong shortwaves in the flow were over Montana and the eastern
Great Lakes. Across the southern tier of states, closed lows were
located over southern California and in the Deep South. A mid level
ridge axis extended from Minnesota into southern Texas. At the
surface, a high pressure ridge extended from the Great Lakes into
eastern Texas. This ridge has kept rich Gulf moisture at bay over
the Gulf Coast with only modest moisture return into the central
High Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

The Montana shortwave moves east into Manitoba by this evening. An
associated cold front will push south into the central High Plains
this afternoon, extending from west central into north central Kansas.
Model soundings show some limited instability along with some mid
level capping across much of southwest and central Kansas later this
afternoon. There should be enough convergence along the front for
some scattered late afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
Precipitation chances should diminish through the evening hours with
the loss of daytime heating with any thunderstorms activity
basically ending across the area before midnight. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms could begin to ramp up again later tonight
as a low level jet strengthens and provides some weak moist advection
into south central Kansas.

The temperature forecast for today and tonight looks fairly
reasonable with only some minor adjustments.  We should see high
temperatures topping out in the upper 70s to low 80s with overnight
lows in the 50s.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

A couple of precipitation episodes are possible during the medium
range forecast period aided by a progressive shortwave pattern in
the westerlies. The first will be a vertically stacked 500 mb
trough, with surface reflection low moving through western Kansas on
Sunday. The GFS, ECMWF and SREF solutions handle the precipitation
quite differently but what is likely is at least numerous showers
and scattered thunderstorms in this weak isentropic lift and weak to
moderate MUCAPE environment. A Northern High Plains surface high
will bring breezy to possibly windy conditions on Monday as the wave
deamplifies into the southern Mississippi valley and general
subsidence develops. Models show another wave moving through the
northern Rockies on Tuesday night into Wednesday as easterly
surface winds turn southerly following lee surface pressure falls. A
sharp dryline will develop across western Kansas Wednesday
afternoon, supported by both ECMWF and GFS, but with highly
different convective solutions at this time. In either case, severe
storms could be supported although the GFS is not as aggressive in
it`s CAPE and precipitation field.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Southerly winds will continue around 15 to 20 knots through much
of the early morning hours at the TAF sites. Winds will ramp up
from the south southwest again during the day today with gusts of
around 30-35 knots possible. Scattered thunderstorms are expected
to develop over west central into north central Kansas later in
the afternoon. There is some potential for these to impact Garden
City and Hays late this afternoon and evening but confidence on
timing and coverage is low enough to preclude adding them to the
TAFs at this time.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  56  74  50 /  10  10  40  40
GCK  80  54  71  49 /  20  20  30  30
EHA  79  51  75  50 /  20  30  20  20
LBL  79  53  77  49 /  10  10  20  20
HYS  81  57  74  53 /  20  40  60  60
P28  81  58  77  55 /  10  20  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gerard
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Gerard






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