Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 140746
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
246 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

...Updated Short term and Long term discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Models this morning appear to be doing a decent job with
precipitation continuing near and east of Dodge City early this
morning where the better 850mb warm air advection near the nose of
a low level jet moves north across central Kansas. Severe weather
this morning from these storms is not expected at this time. This
area of early morning convection is then expected to lift north
northeast by early this afternoon.

Another round of convection will then be possible late day as a
stronger upper level trough exits the Rockies and begins to cross
eastern Colorado and western Kansas. As this upper wave begins to
cross western Kansas late day the 0-1km moisture convergence will
improve along a cold front that will be located near and east of
highway 283. Also better instability and shear will be present
late day ahead of this next approaching wave so there will be a
chance for some of these storms late Saturday to be strong or
possibly even marginal severe. Area most favorable for these
stronger storms will be along and east of a Stafford to Coldwater
line with the main hazard being 60 mph winds gusts along with
hail up to the size of quarters.

Behind the cold front late Saturday afternoon strong northwest
winds can be expected based on the reinforcement of cooler air
spreading across western Kansas, and forecast mean wind speeds in
the 0-1km level, and 850mb winds. Winds of 30 to 35 mph not out of
the question for several hours late Saturday afternoon behind
this cold front and wind gusts of 45 mph also being possible.

Gusty northwest winds will decrease after midnight as the upper
wave/cold front moves east across central Kansas and an area of
high pressure starts to build into western Kansas. The lightest
winds around 12z Sunday are still forecast to be near the Colorado
border and based on the expected clear skies, magnitude of the
cold air returning, and light winds the current Freeze Watch still
looks on track. Still that some differences still exist on how
quickly and exactly where the lightest winds will be early Sunday
morning am currently favoring keeping the Freeze watch in place
for now. Will continue to look at the latest models as they become
available and adjust as needed.

As for temperatures today will be favoring raising the highs
based on the wedge of warm air forecast by all the models in the
850-800mb level, good mixing potential, and a more shallow layer
of low level moisture. Highs climbing back into the lower 80s
appearing more likely now south of Dodge City before temperatures
begin to fall during the mid to late afternoon as cold air
advection improves across western Kansas.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

A progressive upper level trough will move quickly east across
the Mississippi and Ohio Valley on Sunday as a northwesterly flow
develops across the Western High Plains. At the surface a cool
dome of high pressure will build across western Kansas and based
on the 850mb temperatures forecast at 00z Monday the highs are
expected to be mainly in the low to mid 60s. Could be a few
degrees warmer across far western Kansas where westerly down slope
flow begins to improve.

Early next week an upper level ridge axis will move across the
western United States as a down slope northwesterly flow continues
across eastern Colorado and western Kansas. This continues to
support a warming trend next week as temperatures climb from
around 70 on Monday into the 75 to near 80 degree range mid week.
Precipitation chances still appear low through Wednesday despite
several upper level waves rotating around the upper ridge axis and
down the northwest flow across the central Plains.

Wednesday and Thursday a stronger upper level trough is forecast
to move out of the Central Rockies and across the West Central
High Plains. As this next, more significant, upper wave passes
moisture still appears limited so precipitation chances late week
still appear small for western Kansas. There will be a chance for
some slightly cooler air to filter into southwest Kansas late week
behind a weak cold front but what little, if any, cooler air that
does filter into western Kansas will brief with warmer
temperatures expected to return by early next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Model soundings continue to advertise a 45 to 50 knot low level
jet across southwest Kansas between 06z and 12z Saturday. Radar
trends at 05z now indicating scattered showers trying to develop
south/southeast of Dodge City where the better mid level
instability and 700mb moisture is forecast to be located through
the early morning hours. This combined with improving warm air
advection near the nose of the strengthening southerly low level
jet the chance for some widely scattered convection overnight into
early Saturday morning still appears likely. Areas of low clouds
and fog are also forecast given the developing moist
east/southeasterly upslope flow. It still appears that although a
moist southeasterly up slope flow is forecast to develop late
tonight at the surface...given the mixing potential from the
stronger winds forecast to be located just above the surface dense
fog does not appear likely. Possible exception will be around
Hays where at this time can not rule out a period of LIFR
visibilities and ceilings between between 09z and 15z Saturday.
Elsewhere, mainly at Garden City, Dodge City, MVFR visibility and
ceilings are more likely...if that.

On Saturday scattered thunderstorms will again be possible near
and east of a Dodge City to Hays line but the more significant
feature Saturday will the strong gusty northwest winds that will
be developing during the late afternoon and early evening.
Northwesterly winds will increase into the 25 to near 30 knots
after 21z Saturday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  39  63  40 /  30  10   0   0
GCK  78  35  64  38 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  78  37  62  40 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  85  38  63  37 /  20  10   0   0
HYS  73  38  64  39 /  30  10   0   0
P28  79  44  65  40 /  60  60   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for KSZ061-
062-074.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert



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