Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 191200
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
700 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 430 AM CDT Thu May 19 2016

What appears to be recirculated cool air from the large surface high
pressure moving through the central Mississippi valley will influence
our weather again today. A wave moving through the southern Plains
may spread a few showers into central Kansas this morning, however
the subsident side of the wave will be into our area fairly quickly
and the true isentropic lift is well to the south near the red river
area. This will result in another mainly cool, mostly cloudy day.
The convective allowing models are favoring a few isolated to
scattered showers likely due to afternoon instability and mainly
relegated to the eastern half of our area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 430 AM CDT Thu May 19 2016

The return of and upper/mid level level ridge will bring back more
sun and warmer temperatures  heading into Friday. Surface winds will be
southeasterly, so the heating will be limited from the lack of
downslope. During this early part of the weekend, a huge wave will
be coming onto the west coast into the Great basin region. The
models tend to break out QPF across our area of into central
Kansas, which looks like a limited moisture mid level warm air
advection showers early Saturday. NAM is far more aggressive than the
GFS on true dryline convection Saturday afternoon, however the
POPS ramp up into Sunday and beyond as the influence of the upper
wave becomes likely for at least the northern high plains and
quite possibly farther south across the Dodge City forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu May 19 2016

A cool, fairly moist airmass will remain in place, and because of
which, we will see a return to IFR/LIFR conditions later this
evening. Until then, VFR is expected to prevail through around
sunset with a south to southeast wind increasing to 12 to 15 knots
by late morning or midday. Widespread LIFR ceilings are likely to
develop tonight as additional low level moisture moves in from
Oklahoma.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  51  73  56 /  20  20  10  10
GCK  64  50  76  56 /  20  10  10  10
EHA  63  50  80  56 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  63  51  78  56 /  30  10  10  10
HYS  64  49  72  56 /  10  10  10  10
P28  60  51  74  57 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Umscheid



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