Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 302346
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
646 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
...Updated for Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
Short range models indicate the upper level ridge of high pressure
in the Desert Southwest building northeastward across the
Central and Southern Rockies tonight enhancing a northwest flow
aloft across the Western High Plains. Meanwhile, a strengthening
upper level jet is projected to crest the ridge axis and dig
southeastward into western and central Kansas overnight.
Additionally, a prevailing southeasterly upslope flow will
continue to reinforce low level moisture across central and
southwest Kansas with surface dewpoints holding generally in the
50s(F) to near 60F. As dynamic support aloft becomes more
favorable in conjunction with marginal mid level instability
present, light to moderate precip may be possible tonight across
central and portions of southwest Kansas in the vicinity of a H7
baroclinic zone. A few isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out based on NAM/GFS model soundings indicating MUCAPE upward of
500 J/KG. Due to the prevailing southeasterly upslope flow,
increased cloud cover and potential light precip may linger
across central Kansas early Thursday as the upper level ridge
axis shifts slowly east into the high plains of eastern Colorado.
Fog development is a realistic possibility as well with high
relative humidity levels likely.
Low temperatures in the 50s(F) to near 60F can be expected
tonight with surface dewpoints remaining generally in the lower
to mid 50s(F) across central and southwest Kansas. High
temperatures may be a challenge Thursday depending on how much
and how long cloud coverage persists. As a result, highs may only
reach the 60s(F) across central Kansas with the 70s(F) possible in
southwest Kansas where some sunshine is more likely.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday NIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
Drier conditions are expected during the day Friday as medium range
models indicate upper level ridging moving east across the Western
High Plains. Chances for precip return going into the early part of
the weekend as an upper level trough is projected to push east
across the Great Basin into the Central and Southern Rockies.
Meanwhile, a prevailing southeasterly upslope flow will provide some
lift as a series of H5 vort maxima begin to eject out of the Rockies
into the high plains of western Kansas. Although the strength of the
flow aloft is expected to remain modest at best, showers with a few
rumbles of thunder may be possible Friday night into Saturday.
Conditions are expected to dry out a bit Sunday as the GFS/ECMWF
show upper level ridging redeveloping across the Central and Western
Below normal temperatures are expected Friday as lingering precip
and increased cloud cover limit insolation during much of the day.
Look for highs only up into the 60s(F) Friday afternoon with a
warming trend beginning by early next week as upper level ridging
builds across the Central Plains.
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Thursday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
Cigs will again lower tonight with more stratus and fog as moist
southeasterly upslope at around 10kt continues. Expecting IFR
cigs with light fog generally after 06-09Z, then lifting gradually
after 15-18Z. Some locally dense fog at times is also possible. KGCK
may be stuck in MVFR cigs for much of the afternoon.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 55 70 51 64 / 10 10 20 40
GCK 55 72 51 64 / 10 10 20 40
EHA 56 80 53 73 / 20 0 10 40
LBL 58 78 53 70 / 20 10 10 40
HYS 52 67 50 60 / 20 20 20 40
P28 55 69 51 64 / 20 20 10 30