Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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698
FXUS63 KDDC 281826
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
126 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

A relatively quiet day is expected today across southwest Kansas after
a week of severe weather on a nearly daily basis. The weak upper low
over western Kansas Friday evening had moved into Nebraska early this
morning and will continue northeast today. The central High Plains will
be under confluent flow aloft and the associated subsidence will bring
mostly sunny and drier conditions to the area.

An upper level disturbance dropping south along the West Coast will
close off into an upper low over southern California by Sunday morning.
Ahead of this system, low level winds will become southerly across
the central and southern Plains which will bring increasing low level
moisture back into western Kansas later tonight. This flow pattern
will be under weak isentropic ascent across western Kansas late
tonight. With increasing instability aloft, a few elevated showers
and thunderstorms could develop late tonight or toward Sunday
morning across western Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

The medium range models show a somewhat messy upper level pattern
over the western and central conus through the first half of next
week. The upper low over the southwestern states will slowly move
east through the first part of the week. This system will phase
with another upper system that moves onshore over British Columbia
and then drops into the northern Plains by late Tuesday. While
synoptic scale details are not overly specific, the models suggest
that weak disturbances will be moving out over the central Plains
ahead of the upper lows. This will bring periods of scattered to
numerous thunderstorms to the area through Tuesday night.

By Wednesday, the upper systems are progged to push eastward
across the central conus with northwesterly flow developing over
the region between the exiting upper trough and an upper level
ridge building over the western states. The models are drier in
this pattern so chances for thunderstorms should diminish by late
Wednesday nearly negligible precipitation chances through the
remainder of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

VFR conditions will prevail today and tonight, although
visibilities may drop to locally to 4-5 SM in mist around sunrise
Sunday morning. The upper level cyclone that moved across
northwest Kansas Friday was in northwest Iowa late this morning
and should open up and reach northern Wisconsin by Sunday morning.
A weak cold front extending from a surface low in Iowa across
eastern Missouri into central Oklahoma will remain nearly
stationary today and will begin to lift north as a warm front
tonight. Weak high pressure will prevail across western Kansas,
resulting in light surface winds and mostly clear skies except for
a few cumulus clouds near 050 this afternoon. A few The cumulus
clouds will dissipate this evening.

During the night, a weak low level jet will develop in west Texas
and extend into southwest Kansas after midnight. Scattered high
based showers and thunderstorms with bases aoa 080 can be expected
to develop toward morning near GCK and DDC. The showers and
thunderstorms will move across south central Kansas during the
morning hours. Additional thunderstorms can be expected to develop
in southwest Kansas Sunday afternoon near the old warm front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  58  82  59 /  10  10  30  40
GCK  80  56  84  59 /  10  10  30  30
EHA  81  54  83  57 /  20  20  30  30
LBL  82  57  84  58 /  10  20  40  40
HYS  78  57  81  59 /  10  10  20  30
P28  83  62  84  62 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Ruthi



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