Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 180500

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

Water vapor loop early this afternoon showed a fairly vigorous, yet
small scale disturbance moving across the Northern Rockies. A very
subtle shortwave trough extended south of the main storm system,
which was moving into western Colorado. This could be identified
somewhat by enhanced cirriform development pushing east across
Wyoming and western Colorado. Meanwhile, shortwave ridging was
located across southwest Kansas. At the surface, the flow field was
becoming increasingly influenced by lowering pressure across the
Northern High Plains, with winds becoming more easterly and
eventually southeasterly. This flow was quite stable, though, as can
be seen by the swath of low stratus hanging around even at 18z from
northwest Oklahoma through western Kansas into western Nebraska.
Insolation was definitely limited in these areas. SPC has a marginal
risk for severe thunderstorms touching our western counties, and
this is probably a decent forecast for now, given that at least some
instability should develop along the CO border in the 21-00z time
frame, but more so over eastern Colorado where low clouds are
already scattering out. We will have 20 POPs confined to areas just
along the border, and continuing through the late night hours in the
northern zones as a nebulous region of 800-700mb warm frontogenesis
develops in response to the aforementioned mid level trough axis
coming out. The less-aggressive convective model solutions are
favored given the boundary-layer based instability issues from low
clouds and lack of appreciable insolation.

The cool, moist boundary layer airmass will be replaced by a much
warmer airmass from the southwest on Tuesday as a new lee trough
develops across northeastern New Mexico and eastern Colorado. Some
low, remnant morning stratus will likely linger in central Kansas
through late morning, but even by midday, those areas should start
to see clouds scatter out with a warm-up taking place. We should end
up with widespread lower 80s and even some 85-86F readings in the
Elkhart to Liberal corridor along the OK border. Surface winds will
be on the increase as well as the remnant surface high departs and
our overall pressure gradient increases as a result of that and the
new, deepening lee trough to the west.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

In the long term, the main point of emphasis will be on the fairly
impressive storm system arriving at the end of the week. Before
then, however, there will be a slight chance for severe thunderstorm
development across western portions of central KS... mainly south
and east of roughly a La Crosse to Bucklin to Ashland line. The
ECMWF is a bit slower with the front timing late in the day
Wednesday, and given time uncertainties, we expanded the 20 percent
POP line northwest a bit, which matches closer the western edge of
the 5 percent probabilistic contour from SPC Day 3 Convective
Outlook for Wed. SuperBlend POP and QPF still look pretty good for
the Friday event, as all the global models are in pretty good
agreement placing western Kansas in the good 850-700mb frontogenetic
zone north of the surface front. This should be a cold rain event,
with an isolated thunderstorm here and there (mainly across south
central KS). Temperatures will struggle to reach even the mid 50s
for most locations, and perhaps staying in the upper 40s all day in
far west central KS. Severe weather threats look very low for our
part of the world, with that risk being confined to southern
Oklahoma and North Texas.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Low confidence in the evolution of stratus tonight into Tuesday
morning. Outside of convective anvil debris, sky is generally
clear as of midnight. Last few images of satellite imagery do show
stratus beginning to redevelop just east of DDC, which is
reasonable given continued moist upslope flow. Stratus now
developing at DDC as of this writing. Forecasted MVFR cigs in
stratus at DDC/HYS through sunrise Tuesday, but kept out of the
GCK/LBL TAFs. A period of IFR cigs is most likely at DDC. Any
stratus will burn off quickly after 15z Tue. South winds will
increase some Tuesday afternoon, averaging 15-25 kts, in response
to lee troughing east of the Rockies. After 00z Wed, S/SE winds
will remain strong and gusty as a strong low level jet develops
over SW KS. With SWly 850 mb winds near 55 kts, low level wind
shear is included in all TAFs starting around 03z Wed.


DDC  56  85  60  86 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  54  86  57  85 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  52  87  56  86 /  20   0   0   0
LBL  54  87  58  89 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  56  81  60  83 /  20  10  10  10
P28  57  84  61  85 /  10   0   0  10




SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Turner is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.