Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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185
FXUS63 KDDC 251740
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1240 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Atmosphere across SW KS has been strongly worked over by last
night`s convection, and this is expected to limit redevlopment
through tonight. Airmass is capped with instability strongly
depleted as of noon, despite moist easterly upslope surface winds.
Mesoanalysis as of noon shows CAPE axis trying to rebuild
immediately south/west of the CWA. Given this and the upslope
moist flow and the old boundary hanging out just south of SW KS
overnight, kept an isolated storm mention across the southern
zones. Confidence is low that any storms will be able to redevelop
at all, and certainly we will not see the widespread coverage
observed last night. With moist upslope surface flow, and
widespread rainfall last night, some areas of radiation fog seem
plausible late tonight through sunrise Tuesday morning. NAM MOS
guidance is most robust with this, other models not so much.
Included areas of fog in the grids across northern counties
tonight as a compromise.

Tuesday...Traditional summer weather continues. Highs in the lower
90s, high humidity, and a prevailing SE wind near 10 mph. Most
locales will be dry for most of Tuesday. Forcing will be weak,
and with no obvious boundaries, purposely kept pop grids capped at
isolated/slight chance (<25%) through 7 pm Tuesday. 12z GFS does
forecast a weak shortwave to round the high pressure ridge axis to
our west, arriving near the CO/KS border late Tuesday night. This
may prove to be enough to direct more storms into western Kansas
Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

No significant changes to the extended period, as main focus was
on active weather. Temperatures continue to be expected around
climatological highs and lows. Upper flow transitions slowly from
broad weak westerly to more NW by end of week with opportunities
for nw flow impulses.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Lingering stratocumulus will diminish to scattered cumulus this
afternoon. VFR with surface winds maintaining an easterly
component this afternoon near 10 kts. Atmosphere has been strongly
stablized by last night`s convection. As such, no thunderstorms
mentioned in the 18z TAFs. SKC prevails overnight. NAM model
suggests some areas of fog are possible across SW KS after 09z.
With a clear sky and recent widespread rainfall, some radiation
fog seems reasonable. Will only include VCFG for now with not the
greatest confidence. After 15z Tue, SE winds near 10 kts at all
TAF sites.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  90  70  92  70 /  10  20  20  20
GCK  90  68  91  68 /  10  10  20  20
EHA  93  69  92  67 /  20  20  20  30
LBL  93  71  92  69 /  20  20  20  20
HYS  88  69  92  70 /  30  10  10  20
P28  91  72  93  72 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Turner



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