Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 190755 AAA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
255 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...Updated for Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Early morning showers and thunderstorms from near Liberal to Dodge
City and Saint John will gradually weaken as they drift
southeastward towards Pratt, Coldwater, and Medicine Lodge by 6 am
this morning. These storms set off from outflow from an MCS that
traveled across parts of north central Kansas.

Upper level ridging will build back into the Central Plains today
and tonight with mostly clear skies and warm temperatures. A trough
of low pressure will deepen in the lee of the Rockies today with
south winds increasing to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. 850mb temps
are forecast to be a few degrees cooler than yesterday when many
areas hit around 100 degrees. Today`s highs look to be warm and
in the upper 90s. Tonight, south winds will still be in the 10 to
20 mph range with a mild night and lows around 70.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Medium range models indicate an upper level ridge of high pressure
transitioning eastward out of the Western High Plains into the
Central Plains to begin the period Tuesday night. Combined with
a weak flow aloft, drier conditions are likely to prevail through
late Wednesday afternoon. Meanwhile, an upper level trough will dig
southeast across southern California Wednesday setting up a strong
southwest flow aloft across the Central and Southern Rockies,
including a +90kt jet core projected to lift northeast out of the
Desert Southwest into the Colorado Rockies. With a prevailing lee
side trough providing increased convergence in the lower levels,
thunderstorm development is likely across portions of eastern
Colorado Wednesday afternoon with a few storms potentially
drifting into western Kansas later in the evening through early
Thursday. However, the weaker flow aloft across western Kansas
will limit the strength and coverage of any storms. The upper
level shortwave will then lift northeast going into the weekend
while a large scale upper level high remains locked in across the
Deep South. Although precip chances will remain present virtually
each day into the weekend, the weaker flow aloft will limit storm
development, strength, and coverage.

Temperatures will remain above normal Wednesday as the
aforementioned upper level ridge shifts east across the Central
Plains. A prevailing southerly flow across western Kansas will
reinforce the warmer air mass already in place across the region
with H85 temperatures ranging from the upper 20s(C) in central
Kansas to around 30C closer to the Colorado border. As lower level
lapse rates steepen into the afternoon, look for highs well up
into the 90s(F) to near 100F Wednesday. Similar temperatures are
then expected each day through Saturday as the low level southerly
flow persists into the early part of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will dissipate by 07-09Z
this morning. A lee trough of low pressure will deepen with south
winds increasing to 15-25kt after 18Z. VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  71  97  74 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  98  70  97  70 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  97  69  96  68 /  10  10  20  20
LBL  98  70  97  71 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  98  71  99  73 /   0   0  10  20
P28  98  74  98  76 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Kruse






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