Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 160735
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
135 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 107 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

A strong winter storm may have lingering impacts across portions
of southwest and central Kansas early today as short range models
show a closed off upper level low lifting slowly northward across
central and eastern Kansas through early this afternoon. Meanwhile,
strong H5 vort maxima will continue to cycle around the low as it
pivots northward across the Central Plains, in turn, setting off
further redevelopment of precipitation bands across much of western
Kansas. Also taking into consideration recent radar trends and
expected surface temperatures, freezing rain is likely to linger
across central and portions of southwest Kansas through late this
morning before dissipating. A few tenths to potentially a half
inch of additonal ice accumulation is possible. A brief switchover
to snow is still possible across west central and extreme southwest
Kansas toward daybreak as colder air begins filtering southward
across the high plains. Generally light amounts of snow are possible.
Have already extended the Ice Storm Warning until 18Z. Otherwise,
precip chances will end by this evening with drier conditions taking
hold through Monday night.

As for temperatures today, little change to the overall air mass and
prevailing mostly cloudy to overcast skies will limit highs to the
30s(F) this afternoon. Look for lows down into the 20s(F) Monday
night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 132 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Dry conditions can be expected through the end of the week as medium
range models continue to show weak upper level ridging moving out of
the Intermountain West into the Western High Plains during the period.
An extremely weak flow aloft and drier air in the lower/mid levels
moving into western Kansas will limit precip chances across the area
through at least Friday. A warming trend can be expected through the
end of the week as a developing lee side trough creates a west to
southwesterly flow across western Kansas through week`s end, in turn
helping to draw warmer air into the high plains. Well above normal
temperatures remain likely by Thursday with highs reaching the
50s(F).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Periods of freezing rain and prevailing low level stratus will
result in IFR cigs/vsbys in the vicinity of all TAF sites through
early Monday afternoon. Snow is possible across west central and
extreme southwest Kansas toward daybreak potentially reducing vsbys
to MVFR/IFR at KGCK. Northeasterly winds 10 to 20kt will persist
across western Kansas through daybreak as a surface low lifts
northeast across western Oklahoma into eastern Kansas. Winds will
become more north to northwesterly 10 to 20kt by early Monday
afternoon as the surface low moves further northeast across the
Central Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  35  26  40  26 /  70  10   0   0
GCK  35  24  39  22 /  70  20  10   0
EHA  35  23  46  28 /  50  20   0   0
LBL  35  26  43  27 /  50  10   0   0
HYS  33  25  40  25 /  90  20   0   0
P28  37  27  45  28 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Ice Storm Warning until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>079-084>087.

Ice Storm Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for KSZ080-
081-088>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson


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