Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 141754
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1154 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

A high amplitude ridge/trough pattern had developed over North
America with northwest flow aloft over the central High Plains. A
weak disturbance in the flow was moving southeast over western
Nebraska and Kansas early this morning. This system was generating
light snow mainly over eastern parts of Kansas and Nebraska with
flurries farther west. Even some showery mixed precipitation had
developed over northwest Kansas where a slightly warmer boundary
layer temperature profile was in place. As the upper system
continues southeast, a few areas of light snow flurries will
persist over central and southwest Kansas. Chances for measurable
precipitation look pretty slim and the flurry activity should be
winding down by sunrise.

In the wake of the upper system, west to northwest downslope flow
will develop across much of central and southwest Kansas today.
High temperatures should climb into the mid 50s over far southwest
Kansas but may only reach the mid and upper 40s farther east into
central Kansas, and especially in areas to the southwest and northeast
of Dodge City where some lingering snow cover is located.

The models show a stronger upper disturbance moving out of the
Northwest Territories and into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
region by Monday morning. This will push an Arctic cold front into
western Kansas late tonight. Models continue to show mid level
frontogenetic forcing with this system moving down into central
Kansas later tonight. Enough mid level moisture will be in place
for some light snow to develop over northern parts of the forecast
area along I-70 during the late night/early morning hours. Given
the fairly transitory nature of the forcing, do not think snowfall
amounts will be all that much and will continue to show amounts
generally less than an inch.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

The models all show strong low level cold air advection taking
place on Monday. High temperatures will likely be realized Monday
morning as temperatures will likely be falling during the day.
Have adjusted the forecast over the Superblend initialization to
include stronger north/northeast winds during the day. Very cold
air will move into the region Monday night. 850 millibar
temperatures will likely range from -12c over Elkhart to -20c over
Hays by Tuesday morning. With skies potentially clearing Monday
night, overnight lows could dip into the single digits above and
below zero. Headlines for wind chill may be needed by Tuesday
morning.

Tuesday will be another cold day with highs not expected to get
out of the teens over central Kansas. Areas along the Colorado
border could climb to the freezing mark as the colder air begins
to slosh back to the east out of the High Plains.

The upper ridge over the western CONUS flattens out and moves east
through the mid to latter part of the week, allowing temperatures
to moderate back into the 50s and low 60s by Friday. Both the GFS
and ECMWF show another wave moving over the central CONUS on
Thursday with a closed low will move out somewhere in the
vicinity of Nebraska. Moisture appears to be lacking with this
system. An even stronger upper level trough/closed low is progged
to move east over the region next weekend. The models are struggling
with the details on this system but there could be at least a chance
for some light snow somewhere in the central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

A strong, arctic cold front will push south across western Kansas
through this TAF period. Winds out of the north-northeast will
increase to 15 to 20 knots sustained late night, with ceiling in
the IFR category expected at all terminals. The duration of IFR is
expected to be 5 to 7 hours from roughly 09-15z Monday time frame,
give or take a couple hours. Light accumulating snow is expected
at the HYS terminal, but other terminals are expected to see only
flurries/non-accumulating very light snow with this system.
North-northeast winds will remain fairly breezy in the 14-18 knot
range through Monday afternoon, but flight category is expected to
improve to VFR as stratus clouds scatter out toward the end of
this TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  51  22  23   1 /   0  20  20   0
GCK  54  22  24   2 /  10  20  20   0
EHA  54  24  28   8 /   0   0  30  10
LBL  54  23  27   4 /  10   0  20   0
HYS  48  19  19  -2 /   0  70  60   0
P28  53  25  27   4 /   0  30  30   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Umscheid



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