Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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064
FXUS63 KDDC 181738
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1238 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Virtually full sunshine across SW KS as of midday, with convective
debris clouds now SE of the CWA. Overnight thunderstorm activity
has pretty much wiped instability out of SW KS, with only
marginal CAPE trying to hold on near the KS/OK border.
Mesoanalysis also reveals a strong mesohigh situated across the
eastern TX panhandle and western Oklahoma, which will continue to
prevent moisture return and recovery through today. Removed all
remaining pops for the SE zones through this evening (pops < 15%).
12z NAM and HRRR soloutions are both dry. Highs this afternoon in
the low to mid 90s. It`s still summer.

Tonight...Clear. Light and variable (mostly E/SE) winds of 5 mph
or less. Lows in the 60s (except lower 70s from Coldwater to
Kiowa).

Saturday...Breezy and hot. Lee trough strengthens across eastern
Colorado into NW Kansas during the afternoon, with south winds
increasing in response. South winds will average 10-20 mph with
some gusts near 30 mph at times. Temperature trends at 850 mb show
a net increase of +2C compared to Friday, so highs in the mid 90s
will be common. Did hold back from the hotter MOS guidance a few
degrees with recent rainfall and moist soils, and lack of better
downslope. NAM forecasts decent convergence and modest CAPE along
the lee trough axis near the NW zones by late afternoon. With this
in mind, included a slight chance of thunderstorms for the NW
zones Saturday 5-7 pm.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Although not overly significant, precip chances across western Kansas
do continue each day of the weekend as a modest westerly flow aloft
prevails across the Western High Plains. A quickly returning southeasterly
upslope flow and sufficient moisture/instability will set the stage
for potential thunderstorms in the vicinity of a lee side trough each
day as low/mid level lapse rates steepen each afternoon. A more significant
chance for thunderstorms returns to western Kansas early next week as
medium range models indicate an upper level shortwave trough kicking
out of the Northern and Central Rockies and ushering a cold front into
the western part of the state sometime late Monday into Tuesday. Fairly
seasonal temperatures can be expected each day through Monday with
little change to the general air mass across the region. Should see
highs reaching the lower to mid 90s(F) each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Excellent flying conditions, with VFR/SKC expected to prevail.
Modestly gusty SW/W winds at midday will veer to a NE direction at
lighter speeds through this evening. No convective mention at any
TAFs through midday Saturday. After 15z Sat, expect south winds to
increase to 10-20 kts at all airports, gusting at times near
25 kts (most likely at GCK).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  94  66  96  69 /  20  10  10  10
GCK  93  64  96  67 /  10   0  10  20
EHA  94  62  95  66 /  20  10  20  20
LBL  96  66  98  69 /  20  10  20  10
HYS  92  64  96  69 /  10   0   0  30
P28  95  69  97  72 /  40  20   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Turner



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