Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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847
FXUS63 KDDC 212258
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
458 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Skies have cleared over western Kansas in the wake of the upper level
shortwave trough that was moving southeast over the central High Plains
this afternoon. Surface high pressure in the wake of the shortwave
and cold front will build southeast across the central Plains overnight.
This airmass was fairly chilly with current temperatures in the lower
to middle 20s across central and eastern South Dakota. This cold airmass
will impact western Kansas with a glancing blow with the coldest overnight
temperatures expected to fall into the upper teens across central Kansas.
Farther southwest, lows are expected to fall to around 30 over the far
southwest corner near Elkhart.

The center of the high pressure will move south across central Kansas
overnight. Winds will be light and variable this evening before becoming
southerly across western parts of the forecast area toward Wednesday
morning. An increasing pressure gradient in the wake of the
surface high will bring increasing southerly winds to the area on
Wednesday with wind gusts to around 25 mph possible. Highs on
Wednesday will range from the lower 50s over south central Kansas,
closer to the center of the high pressure, to the mid 60s along
the Colorado border where some weak downsloping will be in place.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

A strong high pressure ridge aloft will dominate the weather
pattern over the western CONUS through much of the holiday
weekend. A shortwave trough will top the upper ridge and move into
the northern Plains and Midwest on Friday. Ahead of this wave,
increasing downslope flow and warm advection will help warm
temperatures into the upper 60s and 70s on Thanksgiving Day and
Friday. Friday could be warmer depending on how soon the front
drops through southwest Kansas. Temperatures will fall back into
the 50s and 60s into the weekend before warming back into the
upper 60s and 70s again by Monday.

This morning`s runs of the GFS and ECMWF are both in a little
better agreement with each other regarding the next shortwave
progged to move out over the central Plains toward the middle of
next week. The models both show a stronger wave moving out with a
cold front pushing through western Kansas Monday night. This
system is tending to have a positively tilted orientation which is
not favorable for precipitation over the High Plains, and the
latest model runs are keeping it dry. Still a lot of uncertainty
this far out as details on this storm system will likely change
with subsequent model runs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 455 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Quiet weather will prevail through the upcoming TAF period.
Northerly winds of 12-14 knots will weaken to below 10 knots not
long after sunset. Winds of 6 knots or less are expected through
the remainder of the night as a surface ridge moves across
southwestern Kansas. On the back side of the departing surface
ridge, winds will turn around to the south-southwest on Wednesday,
increasing above 12 knots in the 15-17z time frame. VFR will
continue under very dry conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  23  61  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  25  64  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  30  67  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  27  64  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  20  58  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
P28  21  52  36  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Umscheid



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