Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 260513
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1213 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016
Atmosphere across SW KS has been strongly worked over by last
night`s convection, and this is expected to limit redevelopment
through tonight. Airmass is capped with instability strongly
depleted as of noon, despite moist easterly upslope surface winds.
Mesoanalysis as of noon shows CAPE axis trying to rebuild
immediately south/west of the CWA. Given this and the upslope
moist flow and the old boundary hanging out just south of SW KS
overnight, kept an isolated storm mention across the southern
zones. Confidence is low that any storms will be able to redevelop
at all, and certainly we will not see the widespread coverage
observed last night. With moist upslope surface flow, and
widespread rainfall last night, some areas of radiation fog seem
plausible late tonight through sunrise Tuesday morning. NAM MOS
guidance is most robust with this, other models not so much.
Included areas of fog in the grids across northern counties
tonight as a compromise.
Tuesday...Traditional summer weather continues. Highs in the lower
90s, high humidity, and a prevailing SE wind near 10 mph. Most
locales will be dry for most of Tuesday. Forcing will be weak,
and with no obvious boundaries, purposely kept pop grids capped at
isolated/slight chance (<25%) through 7 pm Tuesday. 12z GFS does
forecast a weak shortwave to round the high pressure ridge axis to
our west, arriving near the CO/KS border late Tuesday night. This
may prove to be enough to direct more storms into western Kansas
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016
Typical summer weather will continue through this week, with no
day-to-day surprises. Temperatures will show little if any diurnal
variation, with afternoon highs in the lower 90s, and lows in the
60s, through Saturday. Dominant upper anticyclone at 500 mb will
be centered near central Nevada on Wednesday, and remain
stationary near central Nevada through Friday. This stagnant
synoptic pattern will ensure unseasonably hot temperatures will
not return, as heights/thickness remain limited. In addition,
NW midlevel flow will become increasingly established during this
time frame, with 12z ECMWF increasing NWly 500 mb winds to 30-40
kts Thursday evening, and persisting through Friday evening. As
such, scattered/chance coverage of thunderstorms is warranted in
the grids, as NW flow directs convection into Kansas each evening.
Mesoscale details will determine the final outcome, but one or two
MCSs appear likely Thursday and/or Friday.
Saturday through Monday...High pressure aloft moves eastward,
ending up near SW KS by Monday. As a result, rain chances dwindle
through the weekend, with afternoon temperatures creeping upward
into the mid to upper 90s.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016
Easterly winds at less than 10 knots will gradually shift to the
southeast early Tuesday morning as a trough of low pressure begins
to develop along the lee of the Rockies. After 21z Tuesday the
southeast winds will range from 10 to near 15 knots.
The latest models soundings do indicate a shallow layer of
moisture near the surface, mainly between 12z and 15z Tuesday. As
a result will continue to follow the previous forecast with some
areas of fog developing towards daybreak, especially near and
northwest of a Dodge City to Hays line. Some patchy IFR stratus
may also develop. After this fog dissipates then VFR conditions
can be expected through the remainder of the TAF period.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 69 92 68 92 / 20 20 30 20
GCK 68 91 67 92 / 20 20 30 10
EHA 69 92 68 93 / 30 30 20 10
LBL 71 92 69 94 / 30 30 30 10
HYS 69 91 69 90 / 20 20 50 20
P28 71 92 71 94 / 20 20 40 20