Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 100453
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1153 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2014
...Updated aviation section...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
A trough of low pressure, located along the lee of the Rockies
earlier this afternoon, will move east into portions of western
Kansas overnight. Southwest winds will decrease but persist
overnight at around 10 mph. Given the expected winds along with
some increasing high clouds after midnight the previous forecast
still looks on track with overnight lows falling back mainly into
the low to mid 30s.
Monday will be unseasonably warm. 925mb and 850mb temperature
increase 4c to 6c from 00z Monday to 00z Tuesday. Based on this
warming trend along with the 00z Tuesday 850mb temperatures of 15c
to 20c will continue to favor highs climbing back into the low to
mid 70s for all of southwest Kansas. These unseasonable warm
temperatures will also result in afternoon relative humidity
values bottoming out in the teens Monday afternoon for much of
western Kansas. Wind speeds however are not expected to be strong
enough for critical fire weather conditions. Very high to elevated
fire weather conditions will be possible for locations along and
west of highway 283.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
Starting Tuesday and continuing through March 17th, a mean longwave
upper level trough will be situated over the Great Lakes, with upper
level ridging near the west coast. This will generally result in
west-northwest mid to high level flow over western Kansas, with
occasional bouts of downslope from the Rockies, and generally mild
high temperatures. However, a couple of upper level, shortwave
features and associated cold fronts will progress across western
Kansas from the west-northwest during this period, the most
significant of which will pass Tuesday and Tuesday evening.
Cyclogenesis will occur with this feature; and as is typical with
progressive upper level systems associated with significant
cyclogenesis, strong winds can be expected as the surface low
pulls away from the high plains later Tuesday. Also, rain will
develop along interstate 70 Tuesday afternoon behind the surface
cold front and just ahead of the upper level feature, which will
quickly change to snow. Snow accumulation could reach around an
inch along Interstate 70, with lesser amounts farther south.
Little in the way of precipitation can be expected along the
Oklahoma state line. High temperatures will briefly fall back into
the lower to mid 50s behind this system for Wednesday before
rising back into the 60s thereafter.
The next upper level feature of interest will pass across western
Kansas by late Saturday along with a weak cold front. This system will
be less impressive than the Tuesday system, and little in the way
of precipitation is expected.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
The downslope pattern we are in will lead to continued VFR
conditions through Tuesday evening. Given the overall broad low
pressure across the the western plains, there will be very little
pressure gradient leading to light winds at less than 8 knots
during much of the day Tuesday.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 33 77 40 58 / 0 0 0 20
GCK 31 76 39 54 / 0 0 0 20
EHA 35 78 41 59 / 0 0 0 20
LBL 31 76 39 59 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 34 76 39 51 / 0 0 0 50
P28 32 77 41 63 / 0 0 0 20