000
FXUS63 KDDC 161800
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
100 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...


.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING UP AND OVER THIS RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES C AT 700 MB. WINDS AT THE SURFACE
TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
UPPER 80 AND LOWER 90S. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN
THE MORNING DUE TO OVERNIGHT CONVECTION BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY BY
THE AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO FORM ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND MOVE EASTWARD AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
THESE STORMS ARE THEN FORECASTED TO MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY
FORM INTO A CLUSTER OR MCS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN KANSAS IN THE EVENING THEN INTO CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME SEVERE IN NATURE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. OTHERWISE
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START OUT A LITTLE ACTIVE, WITH A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.  SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL TRAIN
THROUGH THE PLAINS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL
BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MOST OF THE CWA, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WHEN A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE DRAPED
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.  THEN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY LOOKS
DRY AND WARMER AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED JUST TO
OUR WEST.  THEN BY NEXT SUNDAY, AN UPPER WAVE WILL EDGE IN FROM THE
WEST AND HELP BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL KANSAS
SUNDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BOTH LOOK RELATIVELY COOL, WITH A COLD FRONT
JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA, WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOMEWHAT NORTH DURING
THE DAY LIGHT HOURS.  THEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND
BRINGS SOME WARM TO HOT AIR BACK INTO WESTERN KANSAS FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL BASICALLY RANGE IN THE 90S TO NEAR
100F DEGREES.  MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, RISING INTO THE 70S FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS LEE TROUGHING
DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS. A STORM CLUSTER MAY DEVELOP IN NORTHWEST
KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST, AFFECTING THE TAF
SITES BETWEEN 01 AND 06 UTC WITH STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL. ANY SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN CEILING AND VISIBILITY
WOULD BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  89  65  86  62 /  10  60  20  30
GCK  89  64  86  62 /  10  60  10  40
EHA  92  64  87  62 /  20  60  10  40
LBL  91  65  86  63 /  10  60  20  40
HYS  87  64  85  62 /  10  60  20  30
P28  91  68  88  64 /  20  70  50  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...FINCH