Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 280740
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
240 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUE TO REMAIN COOL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 700 MB SHIFTING TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS YOU HEAD TOWARDS THE SURFACE. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE CONFINED ALONG THE KS/CO
BORDER THROUGH TOMORROW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS THIS MORNING SHIFTING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THIS FRONT THIS MORNING THEN BE CONFINED TO
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
CONCERN. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORMS END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH
DECREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO MID 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY
PROGRESSES TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
HIGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING ON FRIDAY AND PERHAPS
REDEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL STORM CLUSTERS WILL OF COURSE DEPEND ON AIRMASS
RECOVERY FROM PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WE
ARE CONSIDERING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT
SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY
REACH NEAR 70, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A WARMING
TREND THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER 80S BY MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE
TROUGHING AND SOME CHANCE FOR LATE DAY AND NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE BUT IT`S NOT LOOKING LIKE A
TORNADIC PATTERN SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO STAY
NORTH OF KANSAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HELD UP BY HIGH DEWPOINTS
AND SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND POSSIBLY THROUGH 08Z. ASIDE FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PERSIST, WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
AT 10 TO 15 KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  60  77  55 /  50  50  50  50
GCK  83  57  79  53 /  50  60  30  40
EHA  83  55  79  53 /  50  60  40  40
LBL  82  60  80  56 /  50  60  40  50
HYS  80  60  78  54 /  50  60  50  40
P28  80  65  78  59 /  50  60  50  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ065-066-078>081-
088>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH



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