Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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092
FXUS63 KDDC 221700
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 838 AM CDT Sun May 22 2016

WV imagery indicates a broad upper level trough of low pressure
lifting slowly northeast across the Northern Rockies while an
embedded shortwave cycles eastward through the trough axis across
southern Nevada. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low
pressure remains anchored across eastern Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sun May 22 2016

The convective allowing models indicate convection through the day,
while having been overdoing this very same convective output on the
mid shift. There is probably better confidence in convective
initiation occurring along the dryline in the late afternoon
somewhere along the highway 83 corridor. No real significant chance
in the environment is present today over yesterday. Hail in excess
of 2 inches, damaging wind and tornadoes are all possible threats
through the mid evening. With storm motions north northeast, the
most severe storms are not likely to propagate very far east, however
lingering convection could develop into central Kansas into the
overnight hours, as well as some activity along a weak pacific
origin cold front making its way into the area by early Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Severe weather chances exist for our area for the next several days
as the pattern of relatively moderate instability, and weak upper
forcing remains stagnant. Storms will typically develop along the
dryline diurnally and probably be followed by yet another round
of stratus development for the overnight in this cycle. Monday
the pacific front look to have enough influence to favor the far
eastern counties for severe storms vs. the far west. The synoptic
pattern appears persistent overall leaving out the smaller scale
details. A shortwave moving through Friday will have little impact
on the overall synoptic pattern heading into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

MVFR cigs will give way to VFR conditions in the vicinity of all TAF
sites late this afternoon as a low stratus deck slowly lifts and
scatters out. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening,
potentially affecting all TAF sites with brief MVFR/IFR conditions.
Otherwise, high relative humidity combined with a south to
southeasterly upslope flow will create conditions conducive to
stratus redevelopment later tonight. IFR cigs will be possible at
all TAF sites generally after 06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  63  84  60 /  10  40  20  20
GCK  83  60  84  55 /  20  40  10  10
EHA  83  57  85  52 /  20  20   0   0
LBL  82  62  87  56 /  20  40  10  10
HYS  82  62  81  61 /  10  40  20  30
P28  81  65  82  65 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...JJohnson



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