Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 181712

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1112 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

...Updated Aviation and Fire Weather Sections...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Earth, wind and fire concerns for today. Today will be very warm with
strong southwesterly downslope winds as low level cyclogenesis occurs
across southeast Colorado. A weak dryline will surge across the central
zones with very warm temperatures and strong southwest winds expected
in its wake. To the southeast, with higher dewpoints, the relative
humidity will be more on the marginal side for the southeastern zones.
For temps and weather, expect widespread mid to upper 70s across a
good portion of southwest Kansas. The air quality model does show a
plume of sfc dust in the axis of stronger sfc winds. Have areas of
blowing dust for Liberal, Dodge City, Greensburg, and Larned areas.
Confidence on this is not particularly high, but our dry and drought
plagued Earth could easily stir up some dust with the 20 to 40 mph
winds that are expected today. The other and more impacting concern
is red flag conditions. For the specifics, see the section below. The
bottom line, do not burn today as fires can easily get quickly out
of control. Any hot work should be safely monitored as well as cigarettes
properly extinguished.

Attention the turns to tonight. An Arctic front will approach the region
tonight and clear much of the forecast district by morning. The main
exception to this is near the Oklahoma border, particularly for far
southwest Kansas, as the front slows down.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 333 AM CST Sun  Feb 18 2018

For tomorrow, highs will likely occur around midnight or in the morning
hours with values crashing through the day. This is particularly true
across the northern zones, where about a 40-50 degree temperature drop
is expected between today and tomorrow. Did sharpen the highs for tomorrow
across the southern zones, where the gradient will be impressive, even
just across the southern counties. The front is expected to be dry
with no precipitation associated with it. There could be elevated fire
weather conditions across far southwest Kansas, but confidence on this
is medium. If the front does not slow down, then obviously any fire
weather concerns will be lower.

Cold air will continue to surge southward on Tuesday with 850-hPa temperatures
around -11C across the north. Highs will only be in the 20s to the
north and 30s to the south. It looks like any precipitation will be
east and south of the forecast area.

Beyond Tuesday, cold air will continue across the Central Plains on
Wednesday. The fb grids have some pops across the eastern zones early
Thursday. Would not be surprised if there is a trend to a drier solution
with time as the main wave and best WAA is probably going to be too
far away from much of the forecast area. Something to watch. Temperatures
will continue to moderate through the rest of the extended period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1108 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

VFR conditions will persist today and most of tonight with only
sct-bkn cirriform cloudiness near 250. Some local visibility
restrictions to around 5 miles in blowing dust can be expected. Stratus
with ceilings 010-015 is likely to develop late tonight and
Monday morning after passage of a cold front.

An area of low pressure will deepen in northeast Colorado this
afternoon, and a sharp pressure pressure gradient will produce
south to southwest winds at 25 to 30 knots with gusts to near 45
knots. Winds will begin to diminish by mid afternoon in west
central Kansas as the pressure gradient weakens with the approach
of a pre-frontal low pressure trough. A cold front that extended
from eastern South Dakota into eastern Wyoming late this morning
will move into northern Kansas around sunset and become stationary
near the Oklahoma border Monday morning. Although low level
moisture will remain very limited, an area of stratus is likely to
develop over the shallow cold air behind the front. Ceilings 010
to 015 can be expected in Hys around 11Z and in GCK and DDC around


Issued at 333 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

South to southwest winds of 25 to 30 knots with gusts to near 45
knots will continue for most of the day, although winds will begin
to diminish this afternoon in west central Kansas with the
approach of a pre-frontal trough. The driest air with relative
humidities in the 10% to 15% range will move into west central
Kansas northwest of a line from Elkhart to Dighton during the
early afternoon hours. Dewpoints will be higher farther east and
probably will not fall below 20% to 25% east of a Hays-Liberal
line. However, vegetation is extremely dry with low moisture
content even in 10 and 100 hour fuels, and grasses still are
standing erect due to the absence of snow and ice this winter. Any
fire that starts will burn hot and fast even with relative
humidities above red flag warning thresholds. As such, the red
flag warning will continue through 01z even in areas with higher


DDC  76  44  51  24 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  76  36  54  18 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  75  42  71  23 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  76  46  73  29 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  74  32  38  16 /   0   0   0  10
P28  71  54  70  37 /   0   0  10  30


Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ this evening for



LONG TERM...Sugden
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