Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 190553

1253 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)

A subtropical upper level shortwave trough will move slowly into the
Desert Southwest into Saturday. High level moisture will increase
ahead of this wave with models showing nearly saturated layers at
upper levels. The increasing moisture will cause thickening cirrus
clouds to increase mainly late tonight into Saturday. At the
surface, low pressure in eastern Colorado will move slowly east
toward the Kansas border into Saturday. Strong south winds this
afternoon will weaken slightly by evening, however a low level jet
is forecast to develop after midnight. South winds of 15 mph later
this evening may begin to get gusty with the low level jet at 15 to
25 mph after midnight. Good mixing and increasing high level clouds
will help to keep tonight`s temps on the mild side of around 50

For Saturday, strong winds will continue at 25 to 35 mph from the
south ahead of a lee low with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies.
Winds should be just under wind advisory criteria. Relative
humidities should also stay above 20 percent, so not planning on any
Fire Weather headlines at this time. High temps will be tempered a
little by the cirrus cloudiness, and should be around 79 to 81
degrees. Will keep a slight chance for thunderstorms in the far west
near the Colorado border and far north in the I-70 corridor towards
late afternoon as a weak upper level disturbance moves into western
Kansas. South of those areas the atmosphere looks capped. Some
strong thunderstorms may be possible, if storms develop along and
near a warm front, northeast of a surface low, from near Syracuse
to Scott City and Wakeeney. The severe threat looks marginal at
this time with the weak instability and shear.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)

The weekend:

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible
across the northern zones Saturday night near a sfc front.
Severe weather is not expected due to meager CAPE and particularly
very weak bulk shear. A better chance at more widespread showers
and thunderstorms is expected Sunday as a weak upper level trough
moves across the region. Made spatio-temporal adjustments of pops
with a bias towards the ECMWF as this model seems to be less
problematic than the GFS (overdoing boundary layer moisture).
Again, overall instability and particularly shear are on the weak
side, so the main threat will be lightning.

Next week:

There may be isolated convection on the edge of the EML plume Tuesday
night for the northern zones, but confidence is very low as the GFS is
the only model showing this (versus EC/GEM). Will cap pops at 15 percent
and use isolated coverage since the overall convective signal is marginal
at best.

Attention then turns to Wednesday. The GFS is waffling back and forth,
whereas the EC seems to be a bit quasi-stable with synoptic/mesoscale
features. Have a concern for supercells in the eastern zones (generally
along and east of Highway 183). Warm 700-hPa temperatures will limit
overall coverage, but think that an isolated storm developing along
the dryline is not out of the question. CAPE from the EC is lower than
compared to yesterday (model is probably catching on to the front that
is currently across the Gulf basin and resultant impact in the future
with with moisture advection). Still, the model shows upper 50sF to
around 60F dewpoints advecting northward with 1500 J/kg of cape. Bulk
shear of 40-50 kt would support the notion of more organized convection.
Local research using the GFS (since EC lacks some parameters) suggests
a large hail threat (hen egg/tennis ball). Wouldn`t total rule out an
isolated tornado, however, LCL`s look fairly high given expected lower
dewpoints in the boundary layer. Anyhow, something to watch as we
get out of the global model spectrum and come into the mesoscale
model spectrum by that time. Red flag conditions look likely in
the wake of dryline with downslope winds and mixing. Some 90sF
look possible Wednesday in the western zones.

Beyond that, the forecast looks dry with warm/Spring-like
temperatures prevailing.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)

Southerly winds will continue around 15 to 20 knots through much
of the early morning hours at the TAF sites. Winds will ramp up
from the south southwest again during the day today with gusts of
around 30-35 knots possible. Scattered thunderstorms are expected
to develop over west central into north central Kansas later in
the afternoon. There is some potential for these to impact Garden
City and Hays late this afternoon and evening but confidence on
timing and coverage is low enough to preclude adding them to the
TAFs at this time.


DDC  55  74  50  75 /  10  40  40   0
GCK  53  71  49  74 /  20  30  30  10
EHA  50  75  50  76 /  40  20  20  10
LBL  52  77  49  78 /  10  20  20  10
HYS  56  74  53  73 /  60  60  60   0
P28  57  77  55  76 /  50  60  60  10




LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Gerard is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.