Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 310438
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1138 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SURFACE LEE TOUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WILL INTENSIFY
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO TREK EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT THEN INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS THROUGH
TOMORROW. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS TOMORROW. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TOMORROW WITH THE NOSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL BE WHERE
INITIAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
TREK EASTWARD AS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CONFINED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA,
HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH
AS GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. ANY STORMS THAT DUE DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO BECOME SEVERE AS 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE ABOVE
30 KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES WILL BE ABOVE 1500 J/KG. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT 00Z SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF THIS FRONT ALONG WITH
LOCATION OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND LATE
DAY INSTABILITY NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A +13C TO +16C 700MB
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR CONVECTION INCREASING
IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS IT SPREADS EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING IN THIS AREA BASED ON THE 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE AN
ISSUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE PRECIPTABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT THIS TIME
MODELS DIFFERING SOME ON WHERE THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE IT WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT HAVE DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ON SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96.
FURTHER SOUTH A DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS,
HOWEVER ABOVE THIS DRYLINE 700MB TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST TO
WARM TO +14 TO NEAR +16C. THESE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
LIMIT HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH, HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME AM NOT COMPLETELY ABLE TO RULE ON A FEW SCATTERED/WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SIMILAR
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES EXPECTED IN THE EVENING ANY STORM
WHICH DOES DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR BECOMING SEVERE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS/COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BRIEFLY SETTLE INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS BY EARLY MONDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITS
MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z TUESDAY
SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S STILL
APPEAR POSSIBLE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

MOISTURE, WARM AIR ADVECTION, AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF OUR SURFACE BOUNDARY. INCREASING
CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP WHILE AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

A WARMING TREND WILL THEN DEVELOP MID WEEK AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS KANSAS AND A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IMPROVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A VERY SMALL CLUSTER OF GRADUALLY WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
GARDEN CITY EARLIER WERE MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF THE DDC TERMINAL AND
EXPECTED TO NOT HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT. HOWEVER, ELEVATED WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS AND PROBABLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 10 Z. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE TOO
FEW AND FAR BETWEEN TO CONSIDER FOR EVEN A TEMPO GROUP AT THIS TIME.
SLIGHTLY MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A SURFACE DRYLINE. THESE MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
DDC TO HYS. LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP ANYWHERE ALONG THE DRYLINE OR AND INCOMING COLD FRONT
NORTH OF GARDEN CITY IN THE EVENING, POSSIBLY POSING A LOW
PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE BEST CHANCES NEAR THE HYS
TERMINAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  98  65  87 /  20  20  20  10
GCK  67  99  62  87 /  20  20  20  10
EHA  68  99  62  91 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  69 101  65  91 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  69  96  64  84 /  20  40  60  20
P28  70  98  71  90 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...33



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