Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 120747
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
247 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014
...Updated short term and fire sections...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
Two upper level shortwaves will move east towards western Kansas
bringing a chance of precipitation to western Kansas. The first
shortwave is a weakening as it passes through the Four Corners
region today and into the Central High Plains tonight. The second
shortwave will move southeast across western Canada today then
through the Intermountain west tonight. Towards the surface, a dome
of high pressure will be located well east of the area with an area
of low pressure intensifying across western Kansas. Low level
moisture will advect northward east of this low with the possibility
of low clouds developing across central and south central Kansas
early this morning. The remainder of the forecast area should only
observe high clouds throughout the day. Farther west, winds will
generally be from the southwest bringing up dry air from New Mexico.
A dryline will be present in between these two airmasses this
afternoon. There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms across
central and south central Kansas late this afternoon just ahead of
this dryline. However, chances are low due to a strong mid level
cap across this same area. Warm temperatures are expected today with
highs ranging from the lower 80s across the I-70 corridor to around
90 degrees across the KS/OK border.
A better chance of precipitation will be possible across central
Kansas this evening into the overnight along a frontal boundary. A
few of these storms may become severe with large hail and strong
winds being the main concern. Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies
with increasing mid level clouds towards sunrise. The aforementioned
frontal boundary in the previous paragraph will slowly sag southward
after midnight with northerly winds felt behind it. Lows tonight are
expected to range from the mid 40s across west central Kansas to
upper 50s across south central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
Mild and southerly breezy conditions are likely to persist through
the evening and overnight Saturday across central Kansas with any
convection diminishing in the evening hours. A lead shortwave will
rotate out of the southern Rockies early Sunday, ahead of a deeper
cold airmass pushing southward through the Central Plains. A large
surface temperature gradient may exist by early Sunday afternoon as
insolation is allowed to warm up areas from Pratt to Coldwater
longer than in the west central Kansas counties. The 700 mb trough
develops by midday Sunday with a 400 mb potential vorticity anomaly
moving through western Kansas in the Monday or Monday night
timeframe. This should bring a period of rain showers with a better
chance for a change over to snow with minor accumulation possible
in the colder and higher terrain areas (west of highway 83).
In addition to the chance of snow overnight Sunday and Monday
morning temperatures will likely fall to around freezing or colder
again Tuesday morning, more form radiational cooling of drier air
rather than wet bulbing effects. Surface winds will response to lee
troughing by Tuesday, retuning to southerly and breezy lasting
through mid week. By that time, the models indicate another Northern
Plains front diving into the region by Wednesday night.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
VFR conditions will prevail overnight with a few high clouds
overnight. A few mid level clouds develop by late morning. Winds
will generally be from the south at 10 to 15 knots overnight
shifting to the southwest by late morning.
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
Very dry conditions are expected today across far southwest Kansas
with RH`s falling to below 15 percent. This will increase fire
danger across this area in the afternoon and early evening hours.
Burning is not recommended due to the dry conditions. Winds will
generally be from the southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts
approaching 25 mph. As for now, winds look to remain below red flag
criteria which is why the fire watch has been canceled.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 90 53 61 30 / 10 10 40 50
GCK 86 49 57 28 / 10 10 50 50
EHA 87 50 61 29 / 10 10 40 50
LBL 89 51 64 29 / 10 10 40 50
HYS 83 51 55 30 / 20 30 60 40
P28 88 60 71 33 / 20 20 50 40