Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 231700
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Quiet and dry conditions will continue today as weak upper level
ridging moves eastward across the Western High Plains into the
Central Plains during the period. Little instability present and
a weaker flow aloft will keep precip chances at bay through Sunday
night. A developing lee side trough of low pressure will strengthen
across eastern Colorado today, helping to draw warmer air into
the region with H85 temperatures ranging from around 10C across
central Kansas to near 20C along the Colorado border. Under plenty
of sunshine, look for highs up into the 70s(F) across southwest
and portions of central Kansas this afternoon. Expect lows down
into the 40s(F) across south central Kansas tonight to the 50s(F)
in extreme southwest Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

A drier pattern will continue Monday as medium range models indicate
a zonal flow aloft setting up across the Western High Plains in wake
of a departing upper level ridge. Although the flow aloft is expected
to intensify somewhat, a lack of low/mid level moisture/instability
will hinder precip chances through Monday night. Precip chances finally
return late Tuesday as an upper level trough dips southeast across the
Rockies into the Western High Plains setting up an increasingly difluent
southwest flow aloft while sending an attendant frontal boundary into
western Kansas. Although instability is expected to remain limited based
on GFS/ECMWF model soundings, enough forcing associated with the boundary,
increasing mid/upper level moisture, and more favorable dynamic support
aloft will increase the potential for shower development across portions
of southwest and central Kansas late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
night. Precip chances will dwindle going into early to mid day Wednesday
as the upper level shortwave kicks off to the east out of the Central
Plains.

An ongoing warming trend will continue into Monday despite a weak cold
front projected to push into extreme western Kansas by mid to late
afternoon. Highs are expected to reach the 80s(F) across southwest
and portions of central Kansas Monday afternoon. Cooler air will filter
into the high plains Tuesday in wake of a frontal passage resulting
in high temperatures falling closer to what is expected for this time
of the season. The cooling trend will persist through mid week as much
cooler air surges southward into western Kansas Wednesday, dropping
high temperatures well below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

VFR with only some scattered cirrus. Strong south winds this
afternoon with gusts near 30 kts. Winds will remain elevated and
gusty tonight, in response to a strong low level jet with 850 mb
winds as high as 60 kts. Widespread low level wind shear expected
at all airports during the 03z-12z Mon timeframe. SW winds will be
strong and gusty for a few hours after sunrise Monday, followed
by rapidly weakening winds midday Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  49  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  71  50  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  71  52  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  71  50  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  72  50  80  51 /   0   0   0  10
P28  70  46  79  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Turner



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