Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 280726
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
226 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BREAKING DOWN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ALONG WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT
AND A LACK OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DUE TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY, A LEE
SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
CREATING SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S(F) WITH A FEW UPPER 30S(F) STILL
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THIS WILL RAISE H85 TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE TEENS(C)
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 20C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
UNDER CLEARING SKIES, LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE 70S(F) ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE LOWER TO MID 80S(F) POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

EARLY IN THIS PERIOD (SUNDAY), A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE COLD FRONT PASSAGE (IN
TERMS OF WIND SHIFT/STRENGTH). THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE
WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN, SO MUCH OF THE FLOW BEHIND THIS STORM
WILL BE DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORIES. DESPITE THE FRONT
PASSAGE EARLY IN THE DAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL HIT 70+ ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER. WINDS WERE INCREASED IN THE GRIDS,
AS THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG
ISALLOBARIC WIND WITH RAPID PRESSURE RISES. 20 TO 25 KNOTS SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE WIND BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

POLAR FLOW RIDGING WILL THEN APPROACH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY
AND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
WINDS RETURNING TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. A RECIRCULATION OF THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL PREVENT A MAJOR WARM-UP MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY EAST. LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 75-77F RANGE SHOULD
OCCUR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. ON TUESDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH MOST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH. WE
WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS COUNTIES ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, THOUGH, FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 70S PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE.

THE MID TO LATE WEEK WEATHER LOOKS A BIT MORE INTERESTING AS A
LARGER SCALE TROUGH FORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN A BROAD, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS, FAVORING A DEEP LEE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS, INCLUDING SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
DETAILS ARE OBVIOUSLY QUITE UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT, BUT THE SIGNALS
ARE INCREASING THAT ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORM EPISODES SHOULD RESULT
IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WHICH COULD INCLUDE AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST-WEST CENTRAL-SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL ACCOUNT FOR
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY ONLY
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED, SUPPORTED BY RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FIELDS AND GFS LOCAL MOS OUTPUT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  48  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  80  46  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  82  47  70  41 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  82  47  72  41 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  75  47  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
P28  75  47  73  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL



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