Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 100902
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
402 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2014

...Updated for short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

A weak shortwave trough was progressing southeastward across the
central plains early this morning. Just ahead of this feature,
low to mid level frontogenesis and warm/moist advection has resulted
in thunderstorms with heavy rain across parts of central and south
central Kansas. This feature will be moving southeastward and away
from western Kansas today. In the wake of this feature, upper level
ridging will develop across western Kansas by later this afternoon.
Zonal mid level flow across the Rockies from northern Kansas
northward will result in lee troughing that will extend as far south
as Texas. A very warm plume of air up though 700mb from the
southern high plains will advect into southwestern Kansas during the
day. However, as the early morning storm cluster progresses from
southern Kansas into Oklahoma, an outflow boundary will be situated
from central Oklahoma into northwestern Oklahoma to around Dodge
City and Ness City by noon. During the afternoon, the models advertise
this boundary to get shunted to the east by southwesterly momentum
associated with the lee trough. However, sometimes the models are
not strong enough with low level cold pools left over by convection.
Therefore, I opted to lower the high temperatures by several degrees
along a Hays to Pratt line and eastward. The NAM continues to be too
hot for daytime highs in the warm sector. This model does very well in
dry regimes; however, given all the rain that has occurred over
the past month or so, it is not performing as well. Despite the
100+F readings in the NAM for Dodge City and Garden City for
today, current thinking is that we may end up just shy of 100F,
assuming the outflow boundary is east of Dodge City. With upper
level ridging and mid level warming, any thunderstorms that
develop along this outflow boundary will be very isolated, and
there may be no thunderstorms at all. Storm chances were kept
below 15%.

Thunderstorms are not expected tonight given the upper level ridging
and since the 700mb warm plume will have advected well into eastern
Kansas by this time. Low temperatures will be held up into the upper
60s to lower 70s by persistent southerly winds.



.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

For Friday into Sunday, a broad area of upper level high pressure
begins to weaken ahead of a strong upper level low moving southward
from Central Canada and into the Upper Midwest. Weak surface low
pressure will continue in far western Kansas then move slowly into
central Kansas by Sunday. Some moisture convergence along the trough
may be enough to set off a few thunderstorms mainly far west on
Friday then a slight chance into much of western Kansas into Sunday.
High temperatures will be warm and around 100 on Friday, and mid to
upper 90s Saturday, then low to mid 90s for Sunday. Overnight lows
will continue mild and in the low to mid 70s into Sunday morning.

For Monday into mid week next week, the upper level low and
associated cold upper trough will continue to build southward into
the Upper Midwest and Central Plains with a cooling trend. Highs
cool from around 90 on Monday into the 70s and 80s for Tuesday into
Wednesday. Some small chances for thunderstorms continue with the
best chances with and behind a cold front on Monday night and
Tuesday. Overnight lows look to be in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

Winds will generally stay southerly with VFR conditions at
DDC/GCK through the period as a lee trough remains in the lee of
the Rockies. An outflow boundary will pass trough KGCK just after
06z (now) and could temporarily shift winds to northwest. At KHYS,
thunderstorms will be in vicinity through 08z as low to mid level
warm advection persists early this morning, with winds persisting
from the southeast. Even at KHYS, CIGS and VISBYS will generally be
VFR except briefly lower in any thunderstorms.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  71  98  72 /  10  10  10  10
GCK 100  70  99  71 /   0   0  10  20
EHA 101  69  97  71 /   0   0  10  20
LBL 102  70  99  72 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  87  72  99  73 /  10  10  20  20
P28  92  72  98  75 /  60  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Finch






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