Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 142328
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
528 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Our nice little warmup today will be replaced by another arctic
airmass early tomorrow morning as a fairly robust and sprawling trough
in the northwest flow pattern moves into the Northern Plains and
Midwest region. The surface cold front timing will be into western
Kansas around midnight tonight, with very strong cold advection
following very closely behind the initial wind shift. A northwest
to southeast orientation of deformation around 700mb will promote
enough upward vertical motion to saturation, leading to light snow
development after midnight as well. Some of the initial
precipitation will be in the form of cold rain, but the large
majority of the light precipitation event will be in the form of
snow, especially from Hays to Stafford in the roughly 08-13Z time
frame early tomorrow morning. After 12Z, the 700mb frontogenetic
zone will start to become more ill-defined with only flurries
expected thereafter across the remainder of southwest Kansas.
There may be slightly more than a dusting across southwest Kansas
and areas of west central Kansas near the Colorado border, but the
greatest signal for any meaningful accumulation will be in the
aforementioned Hays to Stafford corridor where an inch to an inch
and a half of accumulation can be expected.

As far as temperatures are concerned, there will be a sharp drop
of about 15 or so degrees with the front in the 09-12Z time frame,
with temperatures slowly falling into the upper teens to around
20F from 12Z to 18Z. Thereafter, temperatures will likely plateau
or maybe increase a degree or two with a little sun mid to late
afternoon. The fresh arctic airmass will fully be in place
tomorrow evening, and temperatures will drop into the single
digits late evening most locations. A continued north breeze up to
15 mph will lead to wind chills down to -5 to -10F through the
evening, with a slow drop down to -15 to perhaps -20F between
Highway 50 and I-70 during the overnight hours as temperatures
fall to around zero or slightly colder with an 8 to 10 mph wind. A
Wind Chill Advisory was coordinated with neighboring offices to
the northwest and east for this expected hazard.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

The arctic high will be in place Tuesday, and after a very slow
start in the morning, temperatures will finally touch 20-25F most
locations by afternoon with some sun. The exception will be
farther east in central and south central KS where highs will be
in the mid-upper teens. The arctic high will finally be displaced
by Wednesday with a warm up above freezing (35 to 45F most areas).
The warming trend continues into Thursday with highs about 10
degrees warmer across the board, thanks to fairly strong downslope
momentum across the Rockies, resulting in 850mb temperatures +9 to
+11C. Friday is looking quite mild over much of western Kansas
with much of the region looking at highs in the upper 50s to mid
60s. This large warmup will be out ahead of a developing deep
trough over the west, which could lead to increased chance of
unsettled winter weather going into the weekend. There is still a
fairly decent chance of some impacts from at least a light winter
precipitation event, but the synoptic details of the weekend
winter system are still very unclear with even the most respected
global model still showing a lot of run-to-run instability in the
handling of the Pacific jet stream with this feature. Bottom line
is, keep up to date on the latest forecast thinking as we head
into next weekend if you have any travel interests.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 515 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late this
evening. Low level stratus developing along and behind a cold
front pushing southward across Nebraska will spread further south
into western and central Kansas overnight as the front moves
across Kansas. This will result in MVFR cigs developing at KHYS
generally after 06Z and at the remaining TAF sites subsequently
through the later overnight hours. Brief periods of IFR cigs will
also be possible toward daybreak Monday morning in the vicinity of
all TAF sites. Additionally, light snow is expected to develop
behind the front across portions of west central and central
Kansas late tonight, potentially affecting KHYS with IFR vsbys.
Light snow is expected to remain primarily north of a KGCK to KDDC
line, but cannot be completely ruled out at the two TAF sites.

Westerly winds 5 to 15kt will prevail through late evening ahead
of the approaching cold front, then turn northerly around 20 to
30kt behind the front as it surges southward across western Kansas
overnight. North winds will then gradually subside late Monday
morning through Monday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  21  23   0  20 /  20  20   0   0
GCK  21  24   1  23 /  20  20   0   0
EHA  24  27   7  29 /   0  30   0   0
LBL  24  26   3  25 /   0  20   0   0
HYS  16  19  -3  15 /  70  60   0   0
P28  24  27   3  19 /  30  30   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory from 9 PM Monday to 10 AM CST Tuesday for
KSZ030-031-043>046-063>066-076>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...JJohnson



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