Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 041828
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
128 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO NEBRASKA WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE I-
70 CORRIDOR WITH THE WAVE. 700MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO
AROUND 12 CELSIUS WHICH MAY INHIBIT AN MCS FROM DEVELOPING. TIMING
OF THESE STORMS LOOK TO BE FROM 10 PM TO AROUND MIDNIGHT. OTHER
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE OUT OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND
INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IF
ANY STORMS DEVELOP, SOME COULD BE NEAR SEVERE LIMITS WITH QUARTER TO
LARGER SIZE HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.

FOR TONIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, EXCEPT FOR INCREASING CLOUDS
WITH STORMS IN THE HAYS AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 12 TO 22
MPH. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOKS TO BE MILD AND FROM 68 TO 71 DEGREES.

FOR SUNDAY, AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE FOR STORMS. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH SOUTH WINDS
INCREASING TO 20 TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGHS COULD
APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK NEAR 100 DEGREES WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SUNDAY WILL BE SUNNY, WINDY, AND WARMER. 850MB TO 700MB
TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM 00Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY SUGGESTS HIGHS
APPROACHING 100 DEGREES IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS, HOWEVER GIVEN THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NOT GO THAT WARM JUST
YET AND HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND CROSSES THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT
AND BY 12Z MONDAY AND BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. BY 00Z
MONDAY THERE WILL BE BETTER 0-1KM FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA, HOWEVER WEAK SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES FROM THE NAM WERE
BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALSO WILL
BE PRESENT LATE DAY BUT BASED ON EXPECTED HIGHS AM NOT COMPLETELY
ABLE TO RULE OUT A LATE DAY STORM NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER ALL OF
WESTERN KANSAS WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY MONDAY.

BY 12Z MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY WITH DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ADVERTISED IN THE 900MB TO 850MB LEVEL. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER, PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AND TIMING OF THE COOLER
SPREADING BACK INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT IT APPEARS THE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK SO
WILL NOT STAY FAR. BETTER COOLING EXPECTED WILL OCCUR ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THESE LOCATIONS.

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY BASED ON THE GFS 850MB
TEMPERATURES AT 00Z WEDNESDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES INDICATED HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO BE
DECREASING DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY A SURFACE HIGHS BUILDS INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AND AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE MID WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COOL DOWN WILL END BY THURSDAY
AS WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT THEN
DEEPEN ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY 12-18KT INTO
TONIGHT, THEN INCREASE AFTER 15Z TO 15-25KT. CONVECTION LOOKS TO
HOLD OFF INTO TONIGHT AS NVA SPREADS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. NEW MODELS SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL EXCEPT FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF AN
ELEVATED STORM NEAR HAYS TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  98  70  83 /  10  10  40  70
GCK  69  98  70  80 /  10  10  40  50
EHA  70  98  67  81 /  20  10  30  40
LBL  70  97  70  83 /  10  10  30  50
HYS  69  99  71  81 /  10  10  50  70
P28  71  97  73  88 /  10  10  30  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...KRUSE



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