Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 161833
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
133 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...Fire Weather Forecast...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Besides the gusty wind this afternoon, we`re having a nice fall
day across western Kansas. Water vapor imagery at 18Z shows upper
level ridging over the Pacific Northwest, creating northwest flow
over western Kansas this afternoon. A low amount of mid-level
moisture being advected from northeastern Colorado caused some
high cirrus clouds near Elkhart this morning. Therefore, a high
cloud or two this afternoon can`t be ruled out, but for the most
part skies will remain clear today. Temperatures will reach the
lower 70s, which is normal for this time of the year. With the
deepening surface lee trough in eastern Colorado, southerly wind
speeds will reach 15-20 mph sustained, with gusts up to 35 mph.
Relative humidities in the lower 20s this afternoon will make for
a low-end risk of fire danger for our central zones through about
0Z. Skies will remain clear tonight, with winds calming down to
under 10-12 mph. Temperatures will dip into the lower 40s, which
is again, normal for this time of the year.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

The pattern above more-or-less remains unchanged for Tuesday.
Winds may be slightly weaker and highs look to be slightly warmer.
Fire weather doesn`t appear to be elevated as higher dewpoints
will advect in with the continued southerly winds/lee troughing.
For Wednesday, SW KS ends up in split aloft and a weak high at
the surface. Highs will continue to increase a few degrees with
values flirting around the 80F mark. The warm and tranquil weather
prevails Thursday and Friday. The 00Z EC shows a weather system
moving across the state with an associated fropa and the threat
for showers/thunderstorms. Most of the BL moisture in the model is
SE for the forecast area, so not expecting any significant rains
at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

VFR conditions and clear skies through Tuesday morning for all
TAF sites. Surface high pressure is moving east today, with lee
troughing developing behind the high in Eastern Colorado. This
will cause the pressure gradient over southwest Kansas to increase
and therefore provide for windy conditions at all TAF sites this
afternoon. Both the GFS and NAM show wind flowing from the south
up to 20 knots sustained, gusting to 30 knots. Wind will decrease
to less than 10 knots after 1Z through the overnight.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 133 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Wind and temperatures will combine with relative humidities
reaching close to 15 percent today, creating elevated fire weather
concerns for a few hours this afternoon. Wind will gust up to 35
mph through sunset. Caution is advised if burning outdoors today.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  43  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  75  40  79  44 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  73  40  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  73  39  79  45 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  74  45  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
P28  73  44  76  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reynolds
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Reynolds
FIRE WEATHER...Reynolds



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