Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 260517
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1217 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

...Updated Synopsis and Aviation Discussions...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

At 00z Friday a 500mb trough was located across the panhandle of
Oklahoma and Texas with another, stronger, upper level trough
extending from northern Utah to southern Nevada. East of the
Panhandle of Texas and Oklahoma upper trough a surface and 850mb
stationary front extended from the Panhandle of Texas to southwest
Oklahoma to southeast Kansas. The better 850mb moisture and warm
air advection at 00z Friday appears to be just west of this
surface boundary in south central Kansas. South central Kansas was
also located near the right entrance region of a 250mb jet.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Main concern is for the overnight hours in terms of precipitation chances.
A front is well south of the forecast area. Convection will be tied
to this boundary with activity propagating northward into Kansas. The
4 km NAM solution is the farthest to the north with the precipitation
shield. The ARW and NMMB are to the south and look closer to observations.
As a result, have trended pops to the southeast. Have the highest values
across Barber county for the overnight hours as isentropic-induced
activity moves across said county. Despite SPC, do not think severe
weather is very likely. The LHP is around 4, however, upscale growth,
a lack of discrete storms, and a high PWAT environment should cut down
on hail growth. There could be some marginally severe winds, but by
the time it passes through, this activity should mainly pose a heavy
rain threat. Up to a inch could be possible in the southeast zones,
although isolated higher amounts are possible, should the 4 km NAM
solution verify. Otherwise, the next chance at precipitation will be
tomorrow afternoon and evening across the western and northwestern zones
in association with the tail end of a trof to the north. Highs will
moderate a bit, but still think there will be a gradient of 70s north
to 80s south.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Will be dealing with the highest pops across the northern zones tomorrow
evening. This activity may be marginally severe, but instability will
be on the lower end to moderate side. Some shear though is indicated
with faster winds passing through at the base of the trof. Otherwise,
for the rest of the period, there will be a chance of storms through
the weekend as weak flow aloft and a low level baroclinic boundary prevails.
Drier weather may prevail by the middle portion of next week as mid
level ridging retrogrades. Highs will be fairly normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Clouds will thicken and lower as convection increases in coverage
overnight ahead of an upper level trough as it crosses western
Kansas. At this time it appears the better moisture and lift will
be located near and south/southeast of the Dodge City area. Where
the better chances for precipitation will be overnight so will be
the lower ceilings with RAP, NMM, and ARW all suggesting possible
IFR ceilings developing towards 12z Friday at DDC. At GCK and HYS
low MVFR ceilings are more likely. With a light upslope flow some
patchy fog will be possible at all three TAF sites around
daybreak. VFR conditions will return to all three taf sites
between 15z and 18z Friday. Winds overnight will be easterly at
less than 10 knots. These light easterly winds will then gradually
veer to the south southeast early Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  80  62  88 /  40  30  50  20
GCK  59  79  58  89 /  20  40  50  30
EHA  60  82  61  89 /  30  40  50  30
LBL  61  84  62  91 /  50  30  50  30
HYS  59  76  61  85 /  10  40  60  20
P28  65  83  67  88 /  60  30  40  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burgert


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