Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 030545
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1245 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016

Vigorous shortwave will pass south through SW KS this morning,
with a period of enhanced mid layer clouds, some virga, and
perhaps a sprinkle or two. The odds of any measurable rain
continue to look very low, and maintained the dry forecast
(pop grids less than 15%) as inherited. A mostly cloudy sky at
sunrise will rapidly clear from north to south today, as
subsidence and drier air arrive behind the departing shortwave.
NW winds will increase some this afternoon behind the trough
passage, averaging 15-25 mph across the western zones, with much
lighter winds east of Dodge City. Despite the NW flow, the warming
trend will continue on Tuesday, with 850 mb temperatures
increasing about 3C. Afternoon max temperatures will be within a
few degrees of 70 for most locales, except mid 70s across Barber,
Pratt and Stafford counties, where NW downslope will enhance the
warming trend.

Tonight...clear and quiet with light winds. Not as cold as
previous nights, with lows at sunrise Wednesday ranging from near
40 far NW zones, to near 50 far SE.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016

After the recent cool period, we will see temperatures warm back
up to seasonal values in the upper 70s to lower 80s for highs
beginning Thursday. Western Kansas will be under the influence of
synoptic ridging midweek, which will result in the warming of the
lower to mid troposphere across the higher terrain out west.
Eventually, this warm air will spread out into western Kansas once
we see some deep tropospheric southwestern momentum enter the
picture again, which really won`t come back until Friday. By
Thursday, though, we should start to see some lower 80s for highs
across the far west/southwest counties. A persistent trough in the
eastern CONUS will keep high pressure along the Gulf Coast region,
keeping deep Gulf of Mexico moisture from returning back to
western Kansas anytime soon. Even with the approach of the next
big Pacific trough next weekend, we will likely only see marginal
moisture return (surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s
mainly). There may be enough south flow from the Gulf by late in
the weekend to support some organized convective activity across
our part of the world again, which is the time frame of highest
POPs in the forecast. It remains to be seen if or how much severe
weather will be involved with this weekend storm system given the
poor moisture return (until late).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016

VFR through Tuesday. A vigorous shortwave passing south through
SW KS will produce a period of BKN/OVC mid clouds through about
15z Tuesday. Partial clearing to a scattered cumulus field
expected Tuesday afternoon. After 15z, NW winds increase behind
the trough passage, with the strongest winds at GCK, averaging
15-25 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  40  71  45  76 /   0  10   0   0
GCK  38  69  42  75 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  42  70  42  76 /   0  10   0   0
LBL  39  69  43  77 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  40  72  46  75 /  10  10   0   0
P28  42  74  48  78 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Turner


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