Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 261921
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
121 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL IMPROVE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE
NAM, GFS, AND ECMWF WERE ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES FROM 00Z TUESDAY TO 00Z WEDNESDAY WARMING 3 TO 7C
DESPITE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY. AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT THE
WARMER AIR IN THE 900 TO 850MB LAYER LATE TUESDAY WILL BE LOCATED
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND BASED ON THIS 850MB WARMUP EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WHICH WAS NEAR THE LATEST WARMER THAN THE WARMER GUIDANCE.

WIND SPEEDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE AT LEAST AS STRONG THAN WHAT THEY
WERE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS
GIVEN THE DEVELOPING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS
FAR EASTERN COLORADO, AND 0-1KM MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS. BASED ON
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH LATE DAY NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER AND AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE MID
20S THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR WILDFIRES,
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. THE LOWEST AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE NEAR AND WEST OF GARDEN CITY,
HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS IN THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES TUESDAY AND THEN PROGRESS ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
LEE TROUGHING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY, THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS.
DESPITE THE DEVELOPING COLD ADVECTION BY AFTERNOON, HIGHS WILL STILL
REACH WELL INTO THE 60S.

BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL EVOLVE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES, CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. COOL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF WEDNESDAY`S SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
PROGRESS OFF TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY, WITH WEAK LEE TROUGHING
DEVELOPING ON THE HIGH PLAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AFTER
MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S AND THEN 20S. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO BAJA BY SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER, SOME PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY OWING TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WEAK MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS, WITH RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL WHETHER APPRECIABLE
QUANTITIES OF RAIN OR SNOW WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER, IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT THIS WILL BE A MAJOR WINTER STORM. COLDER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED
BY LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES, WITHS HIGHS AND LOWS FALLING BACK TO BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY SUNSET AND
THEN BEGIN TO GRADUALLY BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS 12Z TUESDAY
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS/DEEPENS ACROSS FAR EASTERN
COLORADO. THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO NEAR 15
KNOTS BY MID DAY. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS BASED ON 12Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 119 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AND
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO
THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR WILDFIRES WEST OF HIGHWAY 283 TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. ANY OPEN BURNING IS DISCOURAGED DUE TO THE EXPECTED
WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  34  73  41  69 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  33  75  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  37  74  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  33  74  40  69 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  34  72  41  67 /   0   0   0   0
P28  36  73  42  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...BURGERT
FIRE WEATHER...BURGERT



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