Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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621
FXUS63 KDDC 150529
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1129 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1215 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

Impacts of a strong winter storm will affect southwest and central
Kansas tonight and Sunday as short range models indicate a strong
closed off upper level low shifting slowly eastward out of Baja
California into extreme west Texas during the period. This will
continue to influence an increasingly difluent southwest flow aloft
across the Western High Plains while increasing low/mid level
moisture transport spreads north and west across the region. As a
result, a drier H85-H7 boundary shown on this morning`s DDC sounding
will begin to slowly saturate through this evening. Meanwhile, an
easterly upslope flow will develop across the area tonight
increasing lift across the area as surface high pressure in the
Upper Midwest begins to push slowly eastward. Factoring in recent
radar trends, widespread precip across the Texas and Oklahoma
panhandles will continue to spread slowly northeast into south
central and portions of southwest Kansas this evening through Sunday
afternoon.

With model soundings showing H85 temperatures around 3C to 8C while
higher than forecast temperatures this afternoon are expected to
drop to around 27F to 32F tonight, look for primarily rain late this
afternoon with a switch over to freezing rain later this evening as
precip overspreads the region. Based on NAM/GFS/ECMWF QPF fields, we
could see widespread ice accumulations ranging around .5 to 1.0
inch. Locally higher amounts above 1.0 inch cannot be ruled out.
Ice accumulation will likely be hindered initially because of the
aforementioned higher temperatures this afternoon.

Factoring in steadily climbing surface dewpoints, lows tonight are
expected to only drop into the mid to upper 20s(F) with near 30F
possible in locations closer to the Oklahoma border. Temperatures
will not climb much Sunday with highs expected only up into the
lower to mid 30s(F) by the afternoon time frame.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 113 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

Impacts of the winter storm will continue through Sunday night and
Monday as medium range models indicate the closed off upper level
low in west Texas turning northeast and lifting across the Texas
Panhandle into eastern Kansas early in the period. Areas of freezing
rain are likely to continue across central and portions of southwest
Kansas through the period. Snow will begin to enter the equation
across west central and extreme southwest Kansas Sunday night as
colder air begins to filter southward into that part of the state
on the backside of a surface low lifting northeast across eastern
Kansas. Looking at recent QPF signals, snow amounts could exceed
1 to 3 inches.

Much drier conditions are then likely Tuesday through the end of the
week as the upper level trough lifts well up into the Upper Midwest
while drier air in the lower/mid levels moves into western Kansas
to kick off the middle part of the week. A general warming trend
can be expected through the end of the week as a westerly, then
southwesterly downslope flow set up across western Kansas through
much of the period. Well above normal temperatures are likely by
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

A deep upper level cyclone in northern Mexico will progress into
northwest Oklahoma by Monday morning. Upper level flow over
western Kansas will become increasingly diffluent today. At the
surface, a ridge of cool high pressure extending from the Great
Lakes to southeast Colorado will move little. An area of low
pressure will move from near El Paso into western Oklahoma by
sunrise Monday. Rich low level moisture will continue to flow into
southwest Kansas over the shallow dome of cold air, and widespread
precipitation in the form of freezing rain will continue today.
The precipitation will change to snow in far western Kansas Sunday
evening, and the snow line will approach GCK by 06z.

Ceilings near 005 and visibilities from 2 to 4 miles in light to
moderate freezing rain and mist will persist in GCK and DDC
through Sunday night. Low level flow will be somewhat variable,
but an east component will be favored. Wind speeds will be around
5 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  26  32  28  36 / 100 100 100  70
GCK  26  30  27  36 / 100 100 100 100
EHA  26  31  26  39 / 100 100 100  90
LBL  27  32  27  40 / 100 100 100  90
HYS  26  30  27  35 /  90 100 100  90
P28  29  35  32  42 / 100 100 100  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Ice Storm Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Monday for KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Ruthi



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