Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 191100
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

The Arctic front and associated stratus continues to move southward
early this morning across southwest Kansas. The main forecast concern
is where this boundary will stall out. Usually in these situations,
the cold air wins. Some of the models return the boundary northward
as a warm front due to cyclogenesis. Feel this might be a bit
aggressive and took the cooler solution guidance. Elkhart, Kansas
will probably win out with the warmest temperatures during the day.
Otherwise, the northern zones will see 30s, central zones 40s. The
southern zones near the Oklahoma border will see the most impressive
temperature gradient across these counties with 10 to 20 degree
difference likely across just a single county. The bottom line is
that there is uncertainty in the high temperature forecast for
today. The good news is that with the cooler temps, fire weather
concerns should be lower if the evolution of temps go as anticipated.

Have some slight pops late tonight across the eastern zones.
Confidence on actually seeing measurable precipitation is low. The
EC and ARW/NMMB show much of the light precipitation remaining east
of the forecast district. Would not be surprised if these pops are
overdone and much of the area remains dry.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 333 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

On Tuesday and Wednesday the cold air will prevail across the Central
Plains. Highs should range from the 20s to lower 40s Tuesday and
mainly 30s Wednesday. Attention the turns to Thursday. Confidence on
precipitation and precipitation type is very low at this point. Some
of the models show a wintry mix, while others less so. At this
point, it is just too early to determine which model is correct. Any
precipitation should be mainly relegated to the eastern zones with
much of the CWA remaining dry. Beyond this, temperatures will
moderate through the rest of the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 500 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

IFR to MVFR cigs associated with stratus will improve later this
morning across the terminals to VFR. Additional stratus with
lower cigs is possible late tonight. LLWS could also be possible
late tonight. Winds will be NW then N to NE today behind a front.
This front will stall out near the Oklahoma border. 10-25 kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  27  35  11 /   0  10   0   0
GCK  44  20  32   9 /   0  10   0  10
EHA  68  28  40  13 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  59  32  43  11 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  34  18  27   9 /  10  20   0   0
P28  55  43  43  16 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden



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