Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDDC 250649
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
149 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
TODAY. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY I304 TO I313 ISENTROPIC SURFACES
FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATED MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE
IMPROVING EARLY TODAY. BASED ON THIS IMPROVING MOISTURE AND LIFT
EARLY TODAY AM RELUCTANT TO REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR
AREAS MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. AT THIS TIME THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS PRECIPITATION FROM THIS ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

FURTHER NORTHWEST MODELS THIS MORNING ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY MID DAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, LOCATED OVER IDAHO/WESTERN MONTANA AT 00Z
WEDNESDAY, MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BY LATE DAY
THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE IMPROVING ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. WITH MOISTURE LOCATED
AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGH AND AN AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS MOVING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATE TODAY WILL
MENTION ANOTHER AREA WHERE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE END BEFORE MIDNIGHT SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY MIDNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENESIS MOVES INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS. BEHIND THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THE SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AND BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING UNDER
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE AT LESS THAN 10
KNOTS. BASED ON THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 09Z WILL FOLLOW
THE COOLER GUIDANCE AND FAVORED OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MID 20S IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 35 DEGREES IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THIS FRONT PASSES A
NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO 30 MPH
RANGE. IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS COOLER AIR WILL BE
INVADING WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON INCREASING
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES AT 18Z WEDNESDAY AND 00Z THURSDAY BEHIND THIS COLD
FRONT THE HIGHS ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS MAY
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH WARMER THAN THE UPPER 50S. FURTHER
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST 850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY GIVING WAY TO A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MUCH
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND
AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH.
ALONG WITH A WEAKER FLOW ALOFT, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR PRECIP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN H5 VORT
MAXIMA DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN VOID OF NECESSARY MOISTURE,
A STRONG ENOUGH JET CORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 VORT MAXIMA MAY BE
ENOUGH SUPPORT ALOFT TO PRODUCE SPRINKLES OR EVEN A FEW ISOLATED
HIGH BASED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OUT WEST BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THURSDAY AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO BRINGING ABOUT A WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL WARM THE
NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER RAISING H85 TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND 5C
IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 10C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LOOK FOR
HIGHS UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S(F) THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUES FRIDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION RAISES H85
TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER WITH VALUES AROUND TO A LITTLE ABOVE 10C.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED WELL UP INTO THE 60S(F) FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
LOWER TO MID 70S(F) POSSIBLE IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING APPROACHES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HIGHS ARE LIKELY
TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S(F) THIS WEEKEND WITH THE LOWER 80S(F) A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS WERE BOTH IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
MOISTURE SPREADING INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TODAY
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE THE 650 MB LEVEL AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING THE CLOUD
BASES DECREASE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATE
AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THERE MAY ALSO BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z BUT AT
THIS TIME GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY WILL NOT INCLUDE A MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE TAFS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN EARLY TONIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. THE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE AFTER 18Z AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  29  63  33 /  30  20  10  10
GCK  59  27  63  33 /  20  20  10  10
EHA  60  31  63  35 /  20  20  10  10
LBL  63  28  64  35 /  20  20  10  10
HYS  57  27  58  31 /  20  20  10  20
P28  67  33  62  33 /  30  20  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURGERT


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.