Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 270807
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
307 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. EARLIER THIS MORNING THE WATER VAPOR LOOP, AND 00Z
WEDNESDAY UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACED ONE OF THE UPPER WAVES WERE
LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE
OBSERVATION INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLE. NAM, GFS, AND HRRR WERE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND BASED ON 06Z VERIFICATION OF THE UPPER WAVE AND
AREA FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION THESE MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS EARLY MORNING EVENT. WILL THEREFORE KEEP HIGH
CHANCE OR EVEN LIKELY WORDING FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST
15Z ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS AS THE UPPER
WAVE PASSES.

AS THIS FIRST SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
LATER THIS MORNING...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN
TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS
TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE NOSE OF AN 300MB JET STREAK AND IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO CROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET LATE
TODAY/EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH MOISTURE, AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAIN HAZARD CURRENTLY APPEARS TO
BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL, HOWEVER A FEW OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST CENTRAL AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
MAY ALSO PRODUCE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE AND TREND
TOWARDS WHAT THE 850MB 00Z THURSDAY MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES
SUGGESTED FOR HIGHS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND THE 00Z
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
MID 80S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
ELSEWHERE. IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE MORE SUN AND LESS CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THURSDAY
THEN THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND
EXITING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL HELP PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN BE POSITIONED
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS ON FRIDAY. LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SATURATED AND WITH THE LIFT CREATED BY THIS
SYSTEM, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. STORM
CHANCES WILL ALSO BE PRESENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE
OCCURRING THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN THE COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES END FROM WEST TO
EAST ON FRIDAY THEN BE CONFINED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
BY SATURDAY. A DRIER PERIOD IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING
THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA AT
THE SURFACE. MEANWHILE, A UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK, THEN MOVE INTO THE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THIS COULD BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER, IT IS TOO FAR OUT
TO PIN POINT EXACTLY THE BEST LIFT WILL OCCUR. OTHERWISE EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE 80S THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN INCREASE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S ON SUNDAY. HIGHS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
80S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 90S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. LOWS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOK TO GENERALLY BE IN
THE 60S WITH A FEW LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

WATER VAPOR LOOP AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING AT LEAST
TWO SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BE CROSSING SOUTHWEST KANSAS
OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. FIRST OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL
CROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND
WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
BASED ON THE MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES THERE WILL BE A CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL THREE
TAFS EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE CLOUD BASES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE AT OR ABOVE THE 3000FT AGL LEVEL.
GUSTY WINDS WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM EARLY
THIS MORNING OR LATER THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THE PREVAILING WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS AT AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL
DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  67  86  64 /  30  50  50  50
GCK  85  66  84  63 /  50  60  40  40
EHA  85  64  83  62 /  40  50  40  40
LBL  88  67  86  65 /  40  50  40  40
HYS  87  68  85  66 /  50  60  50  50
P28  92  71  88  68 /  20  40  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURGERT



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