Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 232006
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
306 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WAS ON THE FRONT SIDE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER UTAH. AN EFFECTIVE SURFACE STATIONARY
FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA,
WITH RAIN COOLED AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT, MOST LIKELY
TO THE SOUTH OF WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
SOME SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IN COLORADO WILL MOVE
INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING BEFORE DYING OFF LATER
TONIGHT. THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL. FAIRLY HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING A LOT, VARYING FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER TO THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THE MOIST
AIRMASS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW,
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AFTER THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND PERHAPS EVEN FOG LATER TONIGHT.

AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES ON SUNDAY, A SURFACE DRYLINE
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WITH MODERATE SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES AND STRONG SHEAR, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD
BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. WITH MORE SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES
OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE 70S.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AN UPPER LOW (500 MB CIRCULATION) WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION LATER IN THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT,
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE IN PLACE,
WHILE THE MODELS DEVELOP A DRYLINE SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE DDC CWA. THE NAM/GFS MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST CONVECTION DEVELOPS
ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE THE ECMWF
INDICATES A BETTER SIGNAL. THE NAM RATHER INDICATES LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TERRAIN STORMS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO MOVING EAST PERHAPS
INTO  OUR FAR WESTER COUNTIES LATER SUNDAY EVENING. UNCERTAINTY FOR
SUNDAY REMAINS HIGH WITH THIS PATTERN. A STEADY BROAD WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS SHOWN BY THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE GENERAL PATTERN ENABLES NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES TO AFFECT THE REGION
EVERY 24 TO 36 HOURS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING
INTO THE AREA MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATE MONDAY
OR MONDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND MONDAY HIGHLIGHTS
POPS BETWEEN 15 AND 40 PERCENT CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
MORE SEASONAL IN THE LOW 80S FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER WITH THE CONTINUED WET
PATTERN, CONSIDERABLY COOLER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ANY GIVEN DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

IFR THEN LIFR CIGS AND PERHAPS EVEN VISBYS WILL DEVELOP AT THE
TAF SITES THIS EVENING BY 02-04Z AS LOW LEVEL, MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. CIGS WILL
IMPROVE AFTER 14Z-15Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  74  57  79 /  30  30  20  10
GCK  59  77  52  78 /  20  40  20  10
EHA  56  78  51  77 /  20  20  10  10
LBL  60  78  54  79 /  20  30  10  10
HYS  60  73  57  78 /  40  30  20  20
P28  63  73  60  81 /  70  30  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH



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