Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 152147

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
347 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

...Updated Short and Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 340 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

A de-amplifying upper level shortwave is exiting the Rockies,
entering western Kansas and lifting north into the Great Lakes
region today. An attendant surface cold front is sliding south
across Southwestern Kansas this afternoon. Behind the cold front,
Canadian high surface pressure will quickly move in from Montana.
While the upper level southwest flow intensifies late this
evening in tandem with a strong baroclinic zone, which induces
healthy 700mb frontogenesis across across Kansas, the best
boundary layer available moisture is located southeast and just
northwest of our region. Because of this, isolated flurries can`t
be ruled out in a line northwest of Johnson City to Hays.
Otherwise, this system is dry, yet again, for our region. We do
need to talk about the wind. Southwest Kansas is going from a
1007 mb low this afternoon to a 1035 mb high by tomorrow morning,
so this surface high is moving quickly, with a strong pressure
gradient from the north. This is going to cause wind tonight to be
strong, upwards of 20-25 mph sustained wind with gusts to 35-40,
through about 10 am. Wind will become less than 10 mph thereafter
until the wind shifts south on Friday evening. Thankfully the
coolest air from this Canadian high will remain to the northeast
of western Kansas causing Friday`s high temperatures to reach into
the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 340 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

The cool air won`t be around long. Southerly flow returns late
Friday afternoon as the aforementioned high pressure moves east.
The upper level flow becomes zonal Friday evening ahead of the
next trough, allowing for short-lived lee cyclogenesis to form
and then move east on Saturday along with the upper level
shortwave. This will shift wind to the north Saturday morning,
then back to the south Saturday night. Temperatures will reach
into the upper 50s/lower 60s on Saturday with wind blowing as a
typical Kansas windy day. Upper level wind becomes zonal again on
Sunday with lee cyclogenesis strengthening in eastern Colorado.
This increased pressure gradient will create strong southwesterly
wind gusts on Sunday. Temperatures will to reach into the 70s.
Due to the high temperatures, dry ground, strong wind and low
relative humidity, fire weather will likely be a concern on both
Saturday and Sunday.

Monday the next cold front comes through ahead of a positively
tilted upper level trough. Long-range models are showing this
will bring good moisture to the north and east of us. Once again
leaving our area dry.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be dominated with cool high pressure,
with lee troughing building on Thursday. Models are showing the
next big system for our area coming through next weekend. It`s
still too early to sort out it`s exact path, but will keep you
updated as it unfolds. Our region needs rain.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1144 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

VFR conditions at all terminals through tonight when ceilings
begin to drop behind a cold front. At this time, KHYS, KGCK and
KDDC ceilings drop into a marginal MVFR status for a few hours
starting around 3Z for KHYS and after 8Z for KGCK and KDDC.
Confidence is low at this time and therefore have left it out of
the TAF. This is something we will continue to monitor. Wind is
transitioning through 0Z from westerly to northerly at 10-20
knots, with gusts to 25. Behind the front, northerly wind
increases from 15-25, gusts to 35 from roughly 2Z to 10-12Z
Friday, where wind will become less than 12 knots thereafter.


DDC  20  42  27  59 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  19  43  25  58 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  23  45  29  59 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  23  44  28  60 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  17  40  24  55 /  10   0   0   0
P28  25  42  28  61 /   0   0   0   0




SHORT TERM...Reynolds
LONG TERM...Reynolds
AVIATION...Reynolds is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.