000
FXUS63 KDDC 151912
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
212 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017


.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

A ridge of high pressure will generally be situated over
the central and southern plains for the next week with
some variation in positioning from day to day. A series of
minor upper level disturbances will ride over the north
side of the ridge across the central plains, the first of
which will be today through Sunday. The first system along
with rich low level moisture in the wake of a frontal
passage, was resulting in shower and thunderstorm activity,
with renewed activity with daytime heating early this
afternoon.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Isolated thunderstorm activity could evolve into a cluster
over southwestern Kansas this evening with locally heavy
rainfall possible due to the slow movement. Hail as large
as quarters and some wind gusts up to 55 mph are possible
with any local downbursts. Widespread severe weather is
not expected due to weak vertical wind shear. Temperatures will
fall back into the 60s to lower 70s tonight and then rise back
into the upper 80s to lower 90s Sunday. There are continued
chances of afternoon and evening thunderstorms Sunday.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

The frontal system that is south of us today will have moved
north as a warm front by Monday into northern Kansas. The upper
level system is still expected to be over northwestern Kansas
Monday so that a few thunderstorms still can`t be ruled out.
Temperatures should rebound back into the mid 90s. Generally hot
and dry weather can be expected Tuesday through Saturday as the
aforementioned upper level disturbances riding over the ridge are
expected to affect areas mainly north of Kansas.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Scattered thunderstorms will affect KGCK and KDDC through the
early evening as an upper level storm system lingers over
eastern Colorado. Given the light pressure gradient, light winds
and VFR conditions can be expected outside of thunderstorms.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  91  68  90  68 /  30  40  20  10
GCK  88  66  89  67 /  40  50  30  20
EHA  87  62  88  66 /  40  50  30  30
LBL  90  68  91  68 /  40  50  30  20
HYS  94  67  91  69 /  10  10  10  10
P28  92  71  92  71 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch