Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 231927
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
127 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

PRETTY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. RADAR TRENDS
HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY TRENDED DOWN WITH ONLY SPOTTY FLURRIES NOW.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DONE BY THE AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC
DOWNGLIDE AND SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10
MPH ARE EXPECTED BY DUSK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COLD AND IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS EXCEPT LOW TEENS FROM HAYS DOWN TO MEDICINE LODGE.
FOR TOMORROW, SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, WHICH
IS DOWNSLOPE. AS A RESULT, SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WARM UP
WITH MID TEENS BY ELKHART AND LIBERAL TO LOWER 40S BY HAYS AND
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TOMORROW
WITH POPS AT ZERO PERCENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINICITY WILL HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SO THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION OUGHT TO BE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF KANSAS. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN EARLY
THIS WEEK, TO BE REPLACED BY WEAK LEE TROUGHING, LOW LEVEL
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MONDAY WILL
STILL BE IN THE 20S, BUT WARMING INTO THE MID TO HIGH 40S AROUND
HAYS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE ABSENCE OF SNOW COVER.
HOWEVER, FARTHER SOUTHWEST, HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN SOME
PLACES WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY SNOW COVER, WITH MAINLY 30S TO LOWER
40S FOR HIGHS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN ANOTHER
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
FROM THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT TO THE ORIENTATION AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS TROUGH. THERE
WILL BE CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD; BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. HIGHS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S BY THURSDAY
AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF TAF PD ALTHOUGH KGCK MAY
HOLD ON JUST A BIT LONGER TO MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY BY EVENING 5-10 KT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  10  37  17  43 /   0   0   0  10
GCK   8  36  17  39 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  10  36  20  42 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  10  35  18  43 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  13  44  22  48 /   0   0   0  10
P28  13  41  21  46 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN


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