000
FXUS63 KDDC 072338
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
538 PM CST Fri Mar 7 2014

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

A strong cold front is currently moving quickly to the south through
SW Kansas.  Along with it, strong north to northeast winds have
formed in nearly a wind advisory category.  I think temperatures
will be quick to fall and set the stage for a round of snow tonight
and much of Saturday.  A developing upper and mid level wave will
cross tonight, and enhance the upper lift over the cold air.  A lot
of strong cold air is evident upstream from the trough/wave.  I
upgraded the WSW around 10:45 am, expanding the area south of I-70
clear to Barber to Stafford county.  I also bumped up snow amounts
to 2 to 4 inches, with possibly up to 5 inches in my west near
Syracuse, Ulysses, and Elkhart.  Went with 2 to 3 inches in the
eastern Finney County, Ford and Meade counties, and near 2 inches in
the southeast zones including Edwards, Pratt and Barber.  The
southeast zones will be the snow later, for instance, after 12z
Saturday, but will receive snow longer into Sat afternoon.  These
snow amounts and the timing is based on a compromise of the NAM, the
HiRes-ARW-West and NamDNG5 models.  The longer range models of the
EC and GFS are less with snow amounts, but similar to the other
models in the timing. I also checked the model soundings for those
models.  There is a warm tongue this afternoon, but the entire lower
level soundings is below 0C degree by 06z.  After 06z is when the
soundings saturate in the dendritic formation zone.  The other
weather factor for tonight is the wind.  North winds of 15 to 20 mph
with higher gusts will cause some drifting and blowing of the snow.
This factor was included in the WSW.

As for temperatures, I kept the mid 20s going for tonight.  Clouds,
winds and precip will play with tonight`s temperatures.  The clouds
will continue on Saturday and the fresh snow will have a cooling
affect on maximum temperatures.  Thus, I lowered max temps into the
mid to upper 30s across the southern 2/3rds of the forecast area,
mainly based on where I expect accumulated snow from tonight to be,
or snow still occurring Saturday for most of the day.  In the north
near Hays and northwestern areas north of Scott City, highs will
likely reach the mid to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

Saturday night/Sunday/Monday:

We will see moderating temperatures during this period. The warmest
looks to be Monday as a result of downslope flow and warm air advection.
Widespread 70sF still looks good attm. No precipitation is expected
during this period. Lows will moderate as well and minimums Monday morning
could end up relatively mild - mid to upper 30sF with 40sF for Tuesday
morning.

Tuesday and beyond:

Attention then turns to Tuesday evening into Wednesday. The 00Z ECMWF
was looking pretty ominous and hinting at a blizzard. Well, the 12Z EC
is still fairly closed off compared to the 12Z GFS. The overall system
is slightly weaker with lower QPF and resultant snowfall amounts than
compared to the 00Z EC. The 12Z GEM is in fair agreement with the 12Z
GFS. Both 00Z/12Z EC runs seem more amplified and than the ensemble
mean. Putting all this together, there is very large uncertainty if
we will get a progressive trof with some light rain/snow or a wrapped up
system that could potentially be a high impact event. With the large
uncertainty, felt it was safe to stick with the conservative Allblend
solution for pops and temperatures. Stay tuned as models will hopefully
come into better consensus. The overall trend for either some rain or
snow and cooler temperatures exists during this period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

VFR/MVFR ceilings will deteriorate into the IFR category after
06z. Light snow will develop and increase in intensity with
visibilities dropping to around a mile later tonight into early
Saturday morning. At Hays, ceilings and visibilities are expected
to remain in the MVFR category. Conditions will improve across the
entire area by 18z Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  39  27  64 /  80  80   0   0
GCK  25  43  26  66 /  80  70   0   0
EHA  28  38  30  65 /  90  80   0   0
LBL  27  37  27  64 /  90  80   0   0
HYS  25  48  27  67 /  40  40   0   0
P28  27  35  25  62 /  80  80   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening to
3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ Saturday FOR KSZ061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Gerard