Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 292304
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
604 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE
NORTHERLY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN BECOMES MORE TILTED TO THE NORTHEAST. A
WEAKER FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH DECREASED MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER/MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT
OF NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR MASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, LOOK
FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE 60S(F) TONIGHT. HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE
90S(F) TO NEAR 100F CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION RETROGRADING WESTWARD TO A POSITION FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS IT MOVES WEST, A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TOPPING THE RIDGE OVER MONTANA ON TUESDAY WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WIDELY
SCATTERED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OR MOVE SOUTH OUT OF KANSAS WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

LATER IN THE WEEK, A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE SURFACE FRONT STALLS OUT JUST TO
OUR SOUTH. MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE DEVELOP TO
THE NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY.

THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES BACK TO THE EAST
WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S CELSIUS
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. AFTER A FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH LATE WEEK, HIGHS SHOULD BE CLIMBING
BACK UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS EARLY THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALL ONGOING CONVECTION AS OF 00Z TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATING CLOUD BASES FROM THESE STORMS WILL RANGE FROM 5000FT
AND 10000FT AGL. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY BY DAYBREAK. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  97  72  99 /  20   0  10  20
GCK  65  97  71  99 /  30   0  10  20
EHA  65  98  72  97 /  10   0   0  20
LBL  65  98  73  98 /  20   0   0  20
HYS  64 100  72  97 /  10   0  10  20
P28  67 100  75 102 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...BURGERT



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