Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 290707
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
107 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2013
...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CST THU NOV 28 2013
Water vapor imagery and 00Z upper air analysis indicate a
prevailing westerly flow aloft across the Western High Plains.
Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure is shifting slowly
southeastward across the Upper Midwest while a dry and fairly
cold air mass remains in place across western Kansas with surface
dewpoints primarily in the 20s(F).
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CST FRI NOV 29 2013
Short range models indicate the general zonal flow aloft persisting
across the Western High Plains through Friday night. Even with a
gradual strengthening of the flow aloft as a strong jet approaches
from the west, a lack of low/mid level moisture will lend to dry
conditions continuing across western Kansas through the period.
Warmer temperatures are likely today as a developing lee side
trough quickly strengthens across eastern Colorado. This will
bring about a more southerly low level flow across western Kansas
by mid to late morning, in turn drawing warmer air northward into
the area. As a result, look for highs generally up into the 50s(F)
this afternoon with a few upper 40s(F) still possible closer to
the I-70 corridor. For Friday night, the lee side trough will
edge eastward into western Kansas during the night turning winds
more west to northwesterly, helping to erode the colder air mass
somewhat. So, lows can be expected down into the upper 20s(F) to
near 30F early Saturday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST THU NOV 28 2013
A series of upper level shortwaves are expected to move across the
area this weekend into next week. The first shortwave is expected to
move across the Central Plains Friday with the second on Sunday.
Both of these systems will be lacking moisture so only some wind
shifts at the surface along with some mid level clouds are expected
to be observed. Highs through this weekend are forecasted to reach
into the 50s with lows ranging from the mid 20s to lower 30s.
Lee troughing develops across eastern Colorado early next week as a
strong shortwave moves into the Pacific Northwest. Ergo, southerly
winds are anticipated across the CWA Monday into Tuesday. This
system will move eastward towards the Northern Plains with a second
piece of energy moving down along the West Coast. The northern
system will help push a surface cold front through western Kansas
Tuesday night into Wednesday bringing much cooler temperatures, an
increase in clouds, and a wind shift to more of a northerly
direction. A few showers could be possible Tuesday night into
Wednesday but confidence is low of this happening at this time.
Highs Monday and Tuesday are forecasted to be in the 50s with lows
ranging from the lower 30s to lower 40s. Highs Wednesday are
currently forecasted to range form the mid 40s across west central
Kansas to lower 50s across the KS/OK border.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST THU NOV 28 2013
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites overnight. However,
low level stratus and areas of fog may develop across extreme
southwest Kansas toward daybreak as already high relative humidity
increases while a southeasterly upslope flow develops early this
morning. IFR cigs/vsbys will be possible as far east as KGCK with
any potential restrictions dissipating mid to late morning. As for
winds, lee side troughing will develop and strengthen across
eastern Colorado as the surface high in the Upper Midwest slips
further southeastward throughout the day. As a result, light
easterly winds overnight will become more southeasterly 5 to 10kt
toward sunrise, then become more southerly Friday afternoon while
increasing up to around 15 to 25kt.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 52 28 57 27 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 52 27 57 26 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 57 28 56 28 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 54 28 57 27 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 48 25 53 26 / 0 0 0 0
P28 52 30 56 30 / 0 0 0 0