Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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691
FXUS63 KDDC 161828
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
128 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

ABBREVIATED SHORT TERM WITH MET WATCH. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
CONCERNING THE NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS OKLAHOMA
HAS BEEN INCREASING IN INTENSITY, SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE BASICALLY SE OF A LINE FROM ASHLAND TO ST JOHN.
THE NEXT AREA OF CONCERN IS OUT WEST. BUBBLING CUMULUS HAS BEEN
NOTED ON VIS SAT. TOOK A BLEND OF THE HRRR AND WRF-ARW FOR POP
ARRANGEMENTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. WE LAUNCHED AN 18Z RAOB, WHICH
LOOKS FAR FROM SPECTACULAR. FIRST, INSTABILITY IS OBVIOUSLY VERY
LIMITED WITH ALL LINGERING CLOUD COVER. SECOND, 850-HPA WINDS ARE
VERY WEAK. IN FACT, THE ENTIRE LOW LEVELS ARE WEAK, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS DECENT VEERING. THIRDLY, UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE BACKED.
TRANSLATION: MESSY HP SUPERCELLS. SO THE SITUATION HAS CHANGED A
BIT FROM PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PROBABLY HAVE DELETERIOUS IMPACTS TO STORM INTENSITY. RAP
ANALYSIS DOES SHOW CAPE INCREASING OUT WEST. STILL THINK WE WILL
STILL SEE SEVERE. THINK TORNADO POTENTIAL IS NOT AS HIGH AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGH. THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR TO GET ROTATING STORMS
THOUGH AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHAT IS
IN QUESTION IS IF THE TORNADOES WILL BE STRONG OR NOT. HAVE SEEN
AN UPTICK ON UPDRAFT HELICITY RECENTLY, SO SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
FROM THE 18Z RAOB, IT WILL TAKE QUITE THE ATMOSPHERIC TURN OVER
TO GET IT PRIMED FOR STRONG TORNADOES WITH DECENT INSTABILITY AND
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL KANSAS THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS THIS EVENING WILL STRENGTHEN
AND THE TORNADO POTENTIAL COULD GO UP. BUT BY THAT TIME, THE
STORMS COULD BE OUTFLOWY, PRECIPITATION LADEN MESSY STORMS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MESOSCALE SITUATION AND ADJUST AS
NECESSARY. STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP TOO.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

FAIR WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, ALONG WITH 10-15 KT SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. ANOTHER STRONG UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES BY LATE MONDAY, AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE UPPER 60S MONDAY NEAR INTERSTATE 70, WITH MID 70S IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES ON
TUESDAY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE, LEADING TO INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH-END SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, BUT MARGINALLY SEVERE ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S TUESDAY.

ANOTHER BREAK IN THE RAIN MAY WILL PROBABLY OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. HIGHS OUGHT TO BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY; AND SOME OF THE
STORMS SATURDAY MAY BE SEVERE AS WARMER AND MOIST AIR MOVES INTO
WESTERN KANSAS FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

CIGS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPORARY IFR
CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH +TSRA. THIS
WILL BE LOCALIZED AND NOT THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CB/VCTS GROUPS FOR KHYS AND KGCK AND USE A TEMPO
GROUP FOR KDDC FOR STORMS THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KT
TODAY WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY 10-15 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  52  82  49  70 /  70   0   0  10
GCK  50  80  47  69 /  60   0   0   0
EHA  48  79  47  69 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  50  81  50  73 /  20   0   0   0
HYS  53  80  48  67 /  80   0   0   0
P28  56  83  54  76 /  80   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN



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