064
FXUS63 KDDC 071751
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1251 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- MCS potential late tonight into early Tuesday morning

- Dry and warmer midweek

- Active weather pattern returns for the end of the workweek into
the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

07z upper air and surface analysis shows a weakening MCS ranging
from near Johnson to west of Dodge City to Dighton.  Earlier the
line was producing 60-70 mph gusts but with the strengthening
nocturnal cap the storms have been weakening over time.  A 594 dm
high is centered in southern New Mexico/Arizona with the stronger
westerly jet extending from central California through northern
Colorado.

Today the main forecast challenge will be how worked over the
atmosphere is from the morning convection and how much sun will we
get to warm the cool outflow air and destabilize the atmosphere.
Another challenge will be that models vary a bit in the position and
strength of the high in the desert southwest which will
influence the location of stronger 200-300 mb winds. These
winds will serve as the steering mechanism for another complex
of storms to develop in northeast Colorado through the Nebraska
panhandle later this afternoon. CAM trends tend to keep the bulk
of the severe weather and heavier rain mainly in Nebraska and
far northern Kansas tonight with some possible storm development
along the outflow boundary after sunset tonight in our
northwest zones. Should any storms develop if we get enough
destabilization we could get some rogue wind gusts greater than
60 mph. Short term model trends keep the CAPE at bay through
much of the morning and we really only begin to see 1000- 2000
J/kg CAPE values appear in our far west by late afternoon once
we have breaks in the clouds. That said with ample low level
moisture and modest instability I can`t rule out an isolated
storm in southwest Kansas in the afternoon however with the
lower confidence of storms happening I kept POPs 15-20%.

For mid week models have the heat dome in the southwest intensifying
and expanding northward which should put the stronger westerlies
moreso into Wyoming and that would keep the more organized MCS
activity well to the north.  There`s higher confidence that Tuesday
and Wednesday should be dry across southwest Kansas as well as
warmer.  Since we should have more sunshine through the day and the
eastern extent of the hotter air moves into far western Kansas we
should see highs reach into the low to middle 90s.

Long range models show the return of an active weather pattern
towards the end of the week with MCS and severe weather potential
returning Thursday night.  With the heat dome shifting to the south
and west as a stronger trough moves through the Rockies we should
see the return of the stronger westerlies moving into Colorado and
therefore the initiation of storms will be in the front range.  GEFS
and EPS 6 hour QPF mean output is showing the return of 30-40%
chances of at least 0.1 inch of rain during the overnight hours
Thursday.  The 20-30% NBM POPs seem reasonable at this time.  More
rounds of mainly overnight storms continue in the forecast through
the weekend as a strong trough moving through the northern plains
will keep the brunt of the heat dome over the desert southwest and
the stronger westerlies stay in the central Rockies through the
central plains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

A weak MSLP gradient resulted in light and variable winds across
southwest Kansas this afternoon. Weak winds will continue
through this TAF period with the prevailing direction from the
southeast. Another round of thunderstorms appears likely to move
out of eastern Colorado late this evening, but the model
consensus is tonight`s activity will not be as widespread in
coverage as yesterday, so we will only carry PROB30 for
thunderstorms late this evening/overnight at GCK and keep DDC,
LBL, and HYS thunderstorm-free for this synoptic TAF issuance.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Umscheid