Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 272014
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
314 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...

VERY QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC THIS MORNING, AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WAS DIGGING
INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DOWNSTREAM FROM A SHARP RIDGE CENTERED NEAR
140 W. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WAS CENTERED IN NORTHWEST IOWA,
AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE CYCLONE INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE EVIDENT IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAK TROUGH, WHILE WESTERN KANSAS WAS FREE
OF CLOUDINESS. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH
OF THE WESTERLIES EXTENDED FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY TO CENTRAL ALBERTA,
AND A SURFACE CYCLONE WAS CENTERED IN NORTHEAST MANITOBA. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW CENTER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO
CENTRAL WYOMING. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM A LOW IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED IN WISCONSIN COVERED MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
RICH MOISTURE WITH H8 DEWPOINTS NEAR 15C AND H7 DEWPOINTS HIGHER
THAN 5C WAS EVIDENT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE, AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
FLOWING THROUGH WEST TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN KANSAS. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WERE WARM IN THE HIGH PLAINS WITH H7 READINGS IN EXCESS
OF 8C.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY QUIESCENT IN SOUTHWEST
KANSAS WITH BROAD RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN
THE BLOCKED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IN IOWA AND THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE IN WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE IOWA CYCLONE WILL BEGIN
TO OPEN UP AND PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AS THE VIGOROUS TROUGH IN
CENTRAL CANADA RIPPLES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO
AMPLIFYING RIDGING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE
CURRENTLY IN CALIFORNIA WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT STRONG TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. HOWEVER, ALL OF THE EXCITEMENT WILL OCCUR BEYOND THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

A SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO NEW MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS AS SOME OF THE
DEEP MOISTURE IN WEST TEXAS HAS SPREAD NORTH INTO KANSAS, AND AN
EXTENSIVE AREA OF SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPED LATE THIS
MORNING EAST OF A LINE FROM GCK TO HLC. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN
SOUTHWEST TEXAS WILL PROPAGATE INTO EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA BY
SUNDAY EVENING, AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE DIVERGENT IN
WEST TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE NO
MORE PLENTIFUL SUNDAY THAN TODAY, BUT THERE STILL WILL BE ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR SOME CUMULUS AGAIN SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAINFALL IS NEAR ZERO THROUGH SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT LIKELY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A CONSEQUENCE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
WINDS. SUNDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S AND SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. H8
TEMPERATURES ON THE ECMWF, GFS AND GEM ARE A FEW TENTHS OF A DEGREE
LOWER SUNDAY THAN TODAY. IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE SOME THIN
CIRRIFORM CLOUDINESS SUNDAY AS A HIGH LEVEL TROUGH IN NEW MEXICO
LIFTS INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AS A CONSEQUENCE, HIGHS SUNDAY MAY BE A
DEGREE OR SO COOLER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER LATE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA AND APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. 850MB TO 700MB
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AT 00Z MONDAY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT HIGHS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MID 80S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL IMPROVE LATE MONDAY OVER FAR WESTERN
KANSAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO CROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. BASED ON THE 21Z SUNDAY AND 00Z MONDAY CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG ALONG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR A FEW STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING COULD BE SEVERE. AT THIS TIME
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN HAZARD FROM THESE STORMS MONDAY EVENING.

CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN
KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS TIME BASED ON
WHERE THE NAM AND GFS PLACES THE BETTER WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
LIFT MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL KEEP THE BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

AS THIS FIRST UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES. AS THIS
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WESTERN KANSAS MID WEEK AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP/DEEPEN OVER EASTERN KANSAS. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE WEEK AS THIS
NEXT SYSTEM CROSSES CENTRAL PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT CROSSES
WESTERN KANSAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS EARLY IN THE
WORK WEEK, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE
LOW TO MID 70S BY LATE WEEK AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE INTO UTAH BY MONDAY
MORNING, AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
IN NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. A TROUGH WILL
PERSIST FROM THE LOW INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES 050-060 WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE
SUNSET BUT WILL REDEVELOP LATE SUNDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL SPREAD INTO KANSAS SUNDAY, AND
THIN SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 300 CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AROUND 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON, DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KTS TONIGHT AND INCREASING
AGAIN TO 15-20 KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS AFTER 15Z SUNDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  59  84  61  84 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  59  83  60  84 /   0   0  10  20
EHA  58  81  59  82 /   0   0  10  20
LBL  59  83  60  84 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  60  85  61  84 /   0   0  10  10
P28  61  86  62  86 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUTHI
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...RUTHI


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