Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 182144
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
245 PM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE
LOW WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND
BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND FAIR...WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ONLY A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RECENT SFC OBS INDICATE LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO RISE A BIT WITH AREA DEW POINTS GENERALLY UP A FEW
DEGREES SINCE YESTERDAY. WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN LIGHT.

THE SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIF
WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF ARIZONA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...BRINGING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...CLOUDS...AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. RAINFALL WILL
BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS FORECAST TO BE
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO ARIZONA
BY TUESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE FORECAST MODELS...ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS...ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

AS A REMINDER...THE FALL PRESCRIBED BURNING SEASON HAS STARTED IN
ERNEST...WITH MORE BURNS PLANNED ACROSS THE FOREST NEXT WEEK. WIND
SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...AND ALLOW SMOKE NEAR PRESCRIBED
BURNS TO FLOW INTO LOW LYING DRAINAGES...PARTICULARLY AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ISOLD-SCT -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH 03Z. SCT -SHRA WILL DEVELOP AFTER 08Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM KPRC...KFLG...KRQE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BAK/BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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