Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 130411

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
910 PM MST Sat Aug 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect typical monsoon weather conditions through the
weekend. Much drier air will bring a decreasing trend in storm
coverage by Monday, with isolated or no storms after Tuesday.


.DISCUSSION...A wet airmass over the area coupled with some decent
mid/upper level shear gave central Arizona a pretty active evening.
Things seem to be dying off now, outflows have pushed south of the
CWA border and new convection is primarily in Maricopa county.

Mesoscale models show these trends and have things pretty quiet by
late evening. This seems reasonable. A similar patter develops on
Sunday, perhaps not quite as active as much of the area will start
with a rain-cooled boundary layer and then mid-level drying develops
during the afternoon. Much more significant drying remains on tap
for early next week.

Trends are covered, no updates needed.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue through late evening. Storms will be
mainly south of the I-40 corridor, with a secondary area along the
Utah border. Localized MVFR/IFR conditions expected in the stronger
storms. Storm coverage and intensity will decrease after midnight.
Redevelopment expected by 18Z-20Z Sunday. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms
will continue through Monday, with temperatures slightly below

Tuesday through Thursday...A drier air mass will move back into the
region with significantly decreased storm chances.






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