Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 222215
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
315 PM MST FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HELPED PRODUCE STORMS OVER
ARIZONA THIS WEEK IS PUSHING INTO NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER
AIR BEHIND THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
A GRADUAL DOWN TURN IN STORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE MAY
INCREASE AGAIN OVER ARIZONA BY TUESDAY.

&&
.DISCUSSION...THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST HAS PUSHED INTO NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...STORMS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVED INTO
NEW MEXICO...UTAH...AND COLORADO. MOST SHOWERS SHOULD END BY DARK
THIS EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A
DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE CHANCE
OF PRECIP SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
ARIZONA.

BY TUESDAY...THE GFS AND EC SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD
OVER ARIZONA AGAIN. THE EC INDICATES MORE MOISTURE THAN THE GFS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF INCREASING POPS ON TUESDAY...THEN TAPERING OFF
SLIGHTLY WED/THU LOOKS GOOD. THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY NEXT WEEK...SO STAY TUNED FOR
UPDATES.

&&

.FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A MINIMAL POSSIBILITY OF MVFR
CIG/VSBY EXISTS OVERNIGHT UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....MAS
AVIATION...AT

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








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