Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 211908
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1215 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY. EXPECT ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG ANS OUT OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM THIS AFTERNOON. SATURDAY NIGHT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA. LOOK FOR BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING
TREND RETURN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NOON UPDATE...HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIP AND REDUCED OPAQUE
SKY COVER FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-40 THIS AFTERNOON. GRIDS AND TEXT
PRODUCTS BEING SENT.

&&

.925 AM DISCUSSION...A WEAK PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED
OVER YUMA AT 8AM. AREA RADAR SHOW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO SW
YAVAPAI COUNTY AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THE LOW CENTER WEST
OF YUMA. PROGS SHOW THE LOW CENTER TO HEAD TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY
FEATURES WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECT WEST OF A LINE FREDONIA TO FLAGSTAFF TO SHOW
LOW WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH
OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST HERE.

SATURDAY EXPECT FAIR AND BREEZY WEATHER WITH OCCASIONAL MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. CROSS
SECTION HAVE ONLY SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT AND THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FOUR CORNERS AREA LOOKS GOOD. WE WILL LILY
BE LOWERING SUNDAYS MAX TEMPS A 2-5 DEGREES WITH THE GREATEST
COOLING IN THE FOUR CORNERS. BRISK NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST WINDS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE
WEST COAST WILL KEEP NORTHERN ARIZONA DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
OVERSPREAD NORTHERN AZ TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN AZ. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/SHSN ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PRIMARILY FROM A KGCN-KFLG-KSOW LINE
WESTWARD WITH SNOW LEVELS RANGING FROM 6500-7000 FT MSL. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR...THOUGH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWER
ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH
CLEARING SKIES THEREAFTER. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF














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