Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 270354
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
855 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT PERIODS OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF FLAGSTAFF. FAIR WEATHER RETURNS
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY
AND INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW NEARING SAN DIEGO THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OVERNIGHT...BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE OVER
ARIZONA. SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT WAS BROUGHT NORTHWARD BY THIS
WAVE IS EVIDENT OVER MUCH OF THE WEST. SHOWERS BEING REPORTED FROM
PHOENIX WEST AND NORTHWEST...ALL THE WAY TO PALM SPRINGS AND UP TO
LAS VEGAS. RAINFALL HAVING TROUBLE DEVELOPING EAST OF I-17 AS THE
AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WAS VERY DRY...SEE THE 00Z
FLAGSTAFF SOUNDING.

WE WERE GOING TO MAKE UPDATES EARLIER THIS EVENING TO TRIM BACK POPS
AND PUSH THE HIGHER POPS TO THE WEST. THIS WAS BASED ON THE LATEST
INFORMATION FROM OUR MESOSCALE MODELS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...BASED
ON CURRENT IR/RADAR IMAGERY...IT SEEMS LIKE THIS WAS PREMATURE AND
OUR POPS MAY BE GOOD IN A FEW HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE EVENING
MESOSCALE MODELS INITIALIZED POORLY BASED ON THE VERY DRY ARIZONA
SOUNDINGS AND LACK OF RADAR ACTIVITY...BUT THINGS HAVE FILLED IN
SINCE THEN.

OTHER WORRIES/ISSUES INCLUDE POSSIBLE WET-BULBING AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. FLAGSTAFF CURRENTLY AT 38/26 AND THE SOUNDING HAS
PLENTY OF ROOM FOR WET-BULBING FROM TOP TO BOTTOM. WE WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON THIS. OTHER CONCERNS ARE THAT POPS ARE STILL A BIT HIGH...A
BIT TOO FAR TO THE EAST AND MAY PERSIST TOO LONG INTO TUESDAY.

BUT...IN GENERAL...THE CURRENT TRENDS LOOK GOOD AND NO UPDATES WILL
BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. MINOR UPDATES MAY ARISE LATER AS WET BULB
AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE QUESTIONS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS SPREADING SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
LOCAL IFR IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....PETERSON
AVIATION...KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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