Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 151639

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
939 AM MST Sun Oct 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions with lighter winds and above normal
temperatures are expected through much of this week. A trough of
low pressure will bring breezy conditions and a slight chance of
showers around Friday.


.UPDATE...No major updates were required to the ongoing forecast.
Only made minor adjustments to the hourly temperature, dewpoint,
and wind grids based on current obs/trends. Otherwise, the current
forecast is in good shape.


.PREV DISCUSSION /412 AM MST/...A building ridge of high pressure
over the southwest part of the country will be the dominant
weather feature for the next several days. This will bring lighter
winds, above normal temperatures, and continued dry weather to
northern Arizona.

Latest long range model guidance has come into a bit better
agreement in regards to a trough moving onto the West Coast late
in the week. It looks like the trough would pass through the
region late Friday/early Saturday with a chance of showers during
that timeframe. At this time, the highest likelihood of seeing any
precipitation would be over the northern part of the area.
Confidence is still pretty low and this portion of the forecast
will be fine-tuned over the coming days. Breezy southwesterly
winds are also expected ahead of the trough Friday afternoon.
Behind this trough, high pressure is expected to rebuild with
temperatures again likely climbing above normal.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...VFR conditions will prevail
through the TAF period. NE-E winds 10-20kts along and downstream
of higher terrain features from the Mogollon Rim southwestward
through this evening. Otherwise, winds generally light. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments


.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and very dry conditions will continue into
Monday. Expect easterly winds along and downstream of higher terrain
features from the Mogollon Rim southwestward through this evening.
Winds light and variable by tonight and into Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...Warm and dry conditions will persist.
Light winds through Wednesday, increasing from the southwest on






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