Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 212138

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
238 PM MST SAT MAY 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Look for breezy to windy conditions and below normal
temperatures through the coming week as a series of dry weather
disturbances brush northern Arizona.


.DISCUSSION...Strong and gusty south to southwest winds will
diminish following sunset today. Until then winds will continue to
gust from 40 to 50 mph across northern Arizona from the Mogollon
Rim northward. As a result, a Wind Advisory remains in effect
until 700 PM MST this evening.

Models indicate that over the coming week a series of shortwave
troughs will move across the western United States and the Great
Basin, brushing Arizona. The stronger pressure gradient produced
by this series of disturbances will deliver gusty afternoon
southwest winds, generally in the 15 to 25 mph range, through
Thursday or Friday. The cooler air mass associated with this
pattern will result in daytime high temperatures around 10 degrees
below normal. Conditions will remain dry through Wednesday before
a bit of additional moisture and upward motion associated with a
stronger disturbance produces a slight chance of showers toward Thursday
and Friday.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...VFR conditions will prevail over
northern Arizona during the next 24 hours. Gusty SW winds 25-30
knots will gradually diminish this evening and overnight...but will
remain gusty at times through Sunday morning. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry/breezy winds will continue across Arizona this
afternoon through Sunday. The strongest winds will occur this
afternoon with near critical fire weather conditions possible across
the lower elevations of northeastern Arizona. Breezy conditions will
continue Sunday with critical fire weather conditions not expected.

Monday through Wednesday...Dry weather and below normal temperatures
will continue with gusty south/southwest winds each afternoon.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ004>007-009>013-




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