Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 250259
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
800 PM MST WED JUN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SLOWLY SPREADING
NORTHWEST OVER ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
FORM ALONG AND NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING WEST THROUGH
SOUTHERN COCONINO COUNTY...OTHERWISE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA IS GENERALLY DISSIPATING AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST GRIDS WERE UPDATED FOR THE TIMING OF THE STORM DISSIPATION
THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO
ADDITIONAL UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../349 PM MST/...IT HAS BEEN AN ACTIVE DAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES. A GROUP OF STORMS FORMED LATE
MORNING IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION AND QUICKLY DEVELOPED INTO A
LINE OF STORMS THAT PUSHED WESTWARD IMPACTING LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM. A 61 MPH WIND GUST WAS RECORDED
AT THE SHOW LOW REGION AIRPORT AND WE RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF PEA
TO DIME SIZED HAIL. WHILE THIS LINE HAS BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED
OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO, EXPECT NEW STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW IMPACTING NORTHERN GILA COUNTY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ELSEWHERE, ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS EVENING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA/SOUTHERN UTAH WILL LEAD TO A DRIER NORTHERLY
FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT BAY, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN
MOGOLLON RIM SOUTHWARD. GUSTY/DOWNBURST WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT.

FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...LONGER TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING
MOISTURE BEGINNING SUNDAY AND INCREASING STORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW ISOLD SHRA MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT EAST
NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

ISOLD TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STORM MOTION
SHOULD GENERALLY BE TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...WITH ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS POSSIBLE GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KPAN-KINW.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP EAST OF I-17 AND HIGHWAY 89 BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WINDS. MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE IN THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT
RANGE.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS MONSOONAL FLOW RAMPS
UP. THE HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE ERRATIC WINDS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BAK
AVIATION...BAK
FIRE WEATHER...TM


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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