Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 231656
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
956 AM MST THU JUL 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE OUT OF NORTHERN ARIZONA...WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
LIMITED TO MAINLY EASTERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.UPDATE...SENT A MINOR UPDATE FOR HIGHER RAIN/T-STORM CHANCES
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM HEBER TO WINDOW ROCK. DEEPER
MOISTURE RESIDES IN THIS AREA WITH DRIER AIR FARTHER WEST. THIS
MOISTURE SHOULD PUSH A BIT FARTHER WEST FRIDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STORMS BACK TO THE FLAGSTAFF AND PRESCOTT AREAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /420 AM MST/...THE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND THE MOIST FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS BEGIN TO PUSH INTO SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF
ARIZONA TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM...PORTIONS OF GILA COUNTY...AND THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. MORE MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF COCONINO AND
YAVAPAI COUNTIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED STORMS AS FAR
NORTH AS FLAGSTAFF AND SCATTERED STORMS OVER SECTIONS OF THE
EASTERN RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO
THE NORTHWEST OF ARIZONA...STRENGTHENING THE DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW...AND THIS WILL TEND TO PUSH THE MOISTURE FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN
NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE MOIST SUBTROPICAL FLOW CONTINUES TO
SPREAD WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. IF A COMPLEX OF
STORMS FORM OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA...THIS WOULD TEND TO HELP PUSH
THE MOISTURE INTO NORTHER ARIZONA SOONER. FOR NOW...MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST A SLOW BUILD OF MOISTURE MID TO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOOK FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
19Z TO 01Z OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM KSOW-KRQE EAST. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LIMITED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA
FOR AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND FRIDAY OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DECREASING HUMIDITY AND BREEZY
AFTERNOON WINDS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A SLOW INCREASE IN MONSOON MOISTURE IS
ANTICIPATED. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
WITHIN SEASONABLY NORMAL RANGES FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ/TC
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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