Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 241112

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
412 AM MST SUN JUL 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...We will continue to see increases in deeper monsoon
moisture today from the Mogollon Rim south...then spreading north
to the Utah border through Tuesday. By Wednesday the high
pressure ridge moves over southern California and Nevada bringing
much drier air into northeastern Arizona. Expect good chances for
showers along and south of the Mogollon Rim region each day from
Wednesday through Saturday, with low grade Monsoon activity and
only isolated storms across the northern third of the state.


.DISCUSSION...Another excessive heat warning was issued for today
for the Grand Canyon Below 4000 feet through 8 pm this
evening...forecast high temperatures running from 109 to 114.

Subtropical moisture is forecast to continue to move northward
from Mexico over the next several days as a subtropical low near
Baja and the subtropical high to the east over New Mexico-Texas serve
to provide favorable moist southerly trajectories for bringing up
deep subtropical moisture. Meso-scale Convective Complexes on the
east side of the Baja low will help saturate the atmosphere
through a deep layer as they redevelop each afternoon through the
overnight hours. This moisture will surge northward as well on the
favorable southerly flow. Moderate to high grade monsoon activity
can be expected from the Mogollon Rim south today...with activity
spreading northward each day through Tuesday...then a down turn in
activity Wednesday through the subtropical high
repositions to southern Nevada and California. A drier northernly
flow is forecast which will bring a down turn in thunderstorm
activity mainly from the Coconino Plateau and Mogollon Rim north
with scattered thunderstorm activity southward.

By Sunday of next week models begin to hint at that the
subtropical high is forecast to move off to the east of
Arizona...with a moist southerly flow of subtropical moisture
moving northward into the forecast area. &&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Scattered SHRA/TSRA will
redevelop across northern AZ aft 18Z Sunday. Conditions to remain
mostly VFR with local MVFR/IFR in +RA possible. Gusty winds up to 35
kts also possible near any storms. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Excessive Heat Warning until
8 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ006.



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