Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 172302
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
402 PM MST THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A DROP IN TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. BEGINNING SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BEFORE
ANOTHER PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM CAUSES A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY
WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING WEATHER SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA
ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM NOON ON FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...HOWEVER...RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP TO NEAR NORMAL.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EXPECT FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE STATE.
HOWEVER...SOME LINGERING MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY ONWARD...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE A ROUND OF
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS. OTHERWISE...CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND WITH A COOLER AIR MASS...A DROP
TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT TWENTY-FOUR HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE
FORECAST UNTIL AROUND 17-18Z FRIDAY...WHEN WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
BOTH ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS...PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RH VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT ARE FORECAST ON FRIDAY WITH
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS...INCREASING TO 20 TO 35 PERCENT ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO VALUES FROM 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID APRIL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY DECREASING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
STRONG AND GUSTY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......AT
FIRE WEATHER...AT

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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