Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 262038
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
238 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 PM CST Saturday...Windy weather is in
store for the Guadalupe Mtns Sunday thru Monday.

A strong Pacific Upper Level system moving onshore will progress
across the Mountains into the Plains Sunday and Monday. The
system will pass just to the north of the CWA. Large scale lift
associated with this system could bring a few showers/storms to
the extreme eastern portions of the CWA. However...the main effect
will be the strong winds in the Mountains. H7 winds will increase
to 50 kt or higher...in addition there is a good mtn wave
signature. Based on this...have upgraded the High Wind Watch to a
Warning for the Guadalupe Mtns Sunday through Monday. There might
be a brief period where the winds subside a little Monday
morning...but it will be brief. To keep things simple decided to
just run the Warning thru Monday aftn. The higher elevations of
the Davis Mtns will be windy...but there was not enough confidence
at this time to add them to the warning. It is also possible that
the winds could be strong enough for an Advisory across the SE New
Mexico Plains and the Western/Central Permian Basin...mainly
Monday. Temps Sunday and Monday will be above normal.

In the wake of this Upper Trof a Pacific Cold Front will drop
south Tuesday and Tuesday night. This will bring cooler temps from
Tuesday thru the rest of the week...about five degrees or so below
normal. For the most part it will be dry.

A colder Upper Trof will move inland over Southern British
Columbia on Wednesday then drop south thru the Intermountain West
to the Northern Baja Peninsula by next weekend. This will bring
southwest flow aloft with shortwaves rippling northeast. Temps
will be cool/cold with a low level east to northeast flow. There
will be a chance of precipitation starting Friday and continuing
thru next weekend.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     55  72  47  66 /  10  10  20   0
Carlsbad                       47  69  42  64 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         54  76  51  74 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Stockton                  53  77  46  66 /   0  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 47  64  37  53 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          48  67  39  58 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          43  70  37  56 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           54  71  45  65 /  10   0  10   0
Odessa                         54  70  45  62 /   0   0  10   0
Wink                           51  74  43  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 5 PM MST Monday for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 5 PM MST Monday for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

03/33



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