Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KMAF 192124
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
324 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...

An upper level trough is digging southward over the west coast, and
an upper low is over the Texas coast. This upper pattern has put the
CWA under north to northeast flow aloft. A surface trough extends
from southeast New Mexico to the Davis Mountains this afternoon.
Surface winds are out of the southwest contributing to downslope
warming. Temperatures today are expected to warm up quite a bit from
yesterday with highs in the 60s and 70s.

The upper trough out west will move further east on Saturday putting
the area under southwest flow aloft. A surface trough will be across
the area with southwest to west surface winds. Temperatures will
further warm up in response to this pattern with highs in the 70s
across most of the CWA on Saturday. The upper trough out west begins
to move over the region on Sunday with the base of the trough moving
over the CWA. This will result in higher winds aloft mixing down to
the surface with possible high winds across much of the area with a
tight pressure gradient in place. A High Wind Watch is in effect for
the Guadalupe Mountains beginning Sunday morning and extends along
and west of a line from Lamesa to Midland to Fort Stockton to Alpine
beginning Sunday afternoon. The watch is set to expire Sunday
evening. These west winds will also bring in a Pacific front on
Sunday resulting in temperatures cooling close to normal values with
highs mostly in the 50s and 60s. Surface winds will decrease on
Monday as the upper trough moves further east, but temperatures will
be similar to the previous day. Temperatures fluctuate a little
through next Friday but will mostly stay in the 50s and 60s. Another
upper trough is expected to move over the area beginning next
Friday. No precipitation is expected for the entire forecast
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns are building as fuels have undergone recent
drying and they will have another day of strong drying on Saturday.
This along with above normal temperatures on Saturday will result in
elevated fire weather concerns and a Fire Danger Statement will
likely be needed for most areas. Sunday fire weather concerns do
increase in response to an anticipated wind storm. Despite the
likelihood of strong winds on Sunday there are a few factors that
are not in alignment and they preclude greater concerns including;
cool temperatures and marginal humidities. So for now we are focused
on the wind which will increase likelihood of Initial Attack type
fires (possibly a busy day for VFDs and Urban FD), Significant Fire
Potential is forecast to be in the low to moderate category for
Sunday across the PB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     35  75  44  61 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       36  74  37  56 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         35  69  40  69 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  42  77  43  59 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 41  64  32  45 /   0   0  10  10
Hobbs                          31  72  35  55 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          27  70  33  53 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           35  74  42  59 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         36  74  41  59 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           34  75  38  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday
     afternoon for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for
     Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-
     Southern Lea County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for Andrews-Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-
     Howard-Loving-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday
     afternoon for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch Sunday afternoon for Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Loving-Marfa Plateau-
     Martin-Midland-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$

49/80


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.