Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 211729
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1129 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with clear skies. Wind will remain westerly and may be a
little gusty during the afternoon.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 343 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Near record high temperatures are expected the next couple of days
as an upper ridge builds over west Texas and southeastern New
Mexico in the wake of a departing low pressure system currently
over east Texas. This ridge will dampen Thursday due to a trough
over the Pacific northwest moving across the northern Rockies.
The polar jet stream located at the base of this trough will
approach the CWA and strong winds will be possible in the higher
elevations of the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains Thursday and
Thursday night. The trough will push a Pacific front through the
area Friday bringing cooler temperatures, followed by a secondary
push of slightly cooler Canadian air on Saturday as the trough
departs to the east. Deep layer moisture will be pushed well east
of the area due to the westerly mid level flow so there will not
be any chance for rain with this system. Warmer conditions return
early next week ahead of yet another storm system impacting the
west coast.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and dry conditions will persist the next few days, increasing
fire weather concerns across portions of the region. Afternoon rh/s
today will drop to near 15 percent across some areas however 20 foot
winds will remain below 20 mph areawide. Wednesday, afternoon rh/s
10-15 percent can be expected areawide but critical 20 foot winds
will remain confined to the Guadalupe Mountains and a Fire Weather
Watch is now in effect for this area Wednesday afternoon. Elsewhere,
elevated fire weather conditions are possible and Fire Danger
Statement may be needed. Otherwise, overnight recovery Wednesday
night will generally be poor to fair.

An upper trough will pass just north of the region Thursday with a
lee surface trough strengthening in the Central Plains. This will
increase westerly winds across much of the area and 20 foot winds
well above 20 mph can be expected through the afternoon,
particularly across Southeast New Mexico, NW Permian Basin and
southward through the Davis Mountains and Presidio Valley. Critical
fire weather conditions are expected across these locations as RH
values drop to near 10 percent and a Fire Weather Watch is in effect
for these areas Thursday afternoon. Gusty west winds will diminish
Thursday evening, at which point fire weather concerns will
diminish.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     78  44  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       82  42  86  48 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         84  48  88  50 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  80  49  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 69  47  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          77  42  82  45 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          73  34  80  39 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           80  45  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         80  46  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           82  40  87  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-
     Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Presidio
     Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$



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