Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 242238
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
538 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Area radars show an active afternoon of widespread, unorganized
convection across the area, w/sfc analysis showing a weak sfc
trough oriented SW-NE across the region, and temps pushing the
triple-digits in many locations. This should begin diminishing
shortly, as peak heating has passed. We`ll insert some evening
tempo groups as needed, mainly KMAF/KFST. Otherwise, return flow
continues the next 24 hours. Forecast soundings re-develop a
widespread cu field most locations by late Monday morning, w/bases
7-8 kft agl. Best chances for convection Monday afternoon look to
be invof sfc trough over SE NM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 146 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge centered over the Mississippi valley extends west
across TX and NM and will remain over the region through the week.
An approaching upper trough looks to take the top off the ridge
and it swings east and may result in slightly cooler temps late
in the week.

Models show a weak cold front approaching the CWA late Thursday
/early Friday but latest models not bringing it very far into the
area.  It may briefly make it into the region but does not appear to
be around long enough to bring much cooling.  If rain forms along
the front then could push farther south.

Late afternoon storms mainly over the mountains looks to be a good
bet again today and have started to get a few echos on radar.  Model
qpf keeps storms generally south of the Pecos river.  On Monday qpf
hits SE NM harder with fewer storms over the mtns... and reduced mtns
storms again on Tuesday.  Will keep low pops mainly over the mtns next
few days.

A southerly wind will keep low level moisture good with dewpts in
the 50s and 60s.  MAF sounding had a PW of 1.2 inches this morning
but model soundings indicate will have some drying of the airmass
with PW falling to 1 inch or less.  This could be due to a decrease
in Pacific moisture as the Hurricane off Mexico moves farther out to
see.  Still should have enough moisture for locally heavy rain in
some of the storms as steering winds remain light.

Above average highs are expected the first half of the week with
warm overnight temps.  By the end of the week should have a return
to more normal average highs.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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