Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 190905
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
405 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Latest sfc analysis shows the cold front has made it to the Rio
Grande and beyond.  Yesterday`s highs indicate the front had a hard
time dislodging the residual heat from the previous days, but any
relief was welcome.  Today looks even cooler, w/models keeping temps
just a bit abv normal most locations.  The front generated little
convection yesterday, and even though forecast soundings show plenty
of instability in place this afternoon, the consensus today looks
pretty dry, as well.  However, as sfc flow veers back to SE and
return flow resumes, best chances over the next 24 hrs looks to be
the Big Bend/lwr Trans Pecos as the warm front moves back across the
border.

Otherwise, as the upper lvl trough moves thru the ern seaboard and
beyond, the upper ridge will build east and park over AZ/NM,
w/increasing thicknesses pushing temps back into the triple digits
most locations by midweek.

This time of year, one could be forgiven for assuming that the upper
ridge, and the general lack of rainfall that comes with it, is here
to stay for awhile.  However, long-range models suggest at least one
more whack at the convective pinata over the weekend as they bring
an upper trough and associated front out of Canada.  Of course, by
that time, models are completely out of sync, w/the GFS bringing
fropa to West Texas and Southeast New Mexico as soon as Friday
afternoon, whereas other models lag as late as Sunday night.
Nevertheless, all act to suppress the ridge south, putting West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico under NW flow aloft, and advertising
plenty of disturbances moving thru the flow.  A blend of models
suggest convective chances ramping up beginning Saturday night and
continuing into next week.  Temps should come down to, or below,
normal by Sunday.

Again, models are way out of sync, but the general trend looks
favorable for cooler, wetter wx.  Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     93  73  98  74 /  10  10  10   0
Carlsbad                       97  71 101  72 /  10  10  10   0
Dryden                         98  75  99  75 /  10  30  10   0
Fort Stockton                  99  73 100  73 /  10  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 90  69  94  71 /  10  10  10   0
Hobbs                          93  68  98  70 /  10  10  10   0
Marfa                          96  64  95  63 /  10  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           95  74  99  75 /  10  10  10   0
Odessa                         95  73  99  75 /  10  10  10   0
Wink                           98  72 101  73 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

80/44


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