Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 180842
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
342 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The second shortwave trough in this week`s series is rounding the
base of the longwave trough, and is now centered near Salt Lake
City, Utah. At the same time, a surge in low-level moisture is
advancing quickly north across Oklahoma. High dewpoint
temperatures have extended to Ponca City, Oklahoma City, and
Lawton, and this humidification will extend across most of the
remainder of Oklahoma (and western north Texas) by this
afternoon.

The HRRRX model has been fairly consistent in breaking out the
initial convection early this afternoon over Texas, in the general
vicinity of Abilene, then spreading/expanding this area rapidly
north through the afternoon. In a general sense, this is probably
what will happen. Supercell thunderstorms are likely within the
expected environment, and the SPC has issued a "High Risk" of
severe storms for today for much of the northwest quadrant of
Oklahoma, with lesser risk areas covering the remainder of our
forecast area.

A cold front will move into northern Oklahoma on Friday, and by
evening, it should be near I-44. This will limit the risk of
severe storms to the north, but along and south of the front,
there will again be a risk of severe storms. There is more
question about what will happen tomorrow, since lingering early-
morning convection will alter the environment in unpredictable
ways.

Rainfall tomorrow may be quite heavy near the front. There is
still some uncertainty where the heaviest rain may fall, and
whether it will be enough to cause more than localized flooding,
so there is not yet justification for a flood watch. Nevertheless,
some urban and small stream flooding seems likely, if the expected
scenario is correct.

The front will continue its advance on Saturday and Sunday, as
rain/storm chances slowly diminish from the northwest. This will
bring a relatively quiet period for most of the weekend and into
early next week. Another wave sweeping south across the Plains
will, however, bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms
(with a lower risk of severe storms) for Tuesday and parts of
surrounding days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  85  66  78  58 /  60  60  80  90
Hobart OK         85  65  82  55 /  60  50  70  70
Wichita Falls TX  89  69  84  61 /  60  40  70  80
Gage OK           83  57  79  48 /  60  60  40  30
Ponca City OK     84  65  78  56 /  30  70  70  80
Durant OK         86  69  83  66 /  30  40  40  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

09/23



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