Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 180226
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
926 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.UPDATE...
PRECIP/WX...TEMPS...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLEANED UP POPS FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT... AS ACTIVITY HAS
SETTLED DOWN... NOT MUCH TO SEE ACROSS WRN OK/WRN N TX AT THE
MOMENT BUT SOME BATS TAKING FLIGHT. WITH THAT SAID... CONTINUE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLVING CONVECTION ACROSS S CENTRAL NE AND
INTO NRN/WRN KS. THE RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO EXPAND
CONVECTION ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY... PUSHING INTO NRN OK/CENTRAL
OK BY MON MORNING. DOUBTS ARE HEAVY WITH THIS SOLUTION... AS THIS
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND AN OUTLIER WHEN COMPARED TO OTHERS.
OVERALL... CONDITIONS FOR AN AGGRESSIVE BUILDING OF CONVECTION
SWRD ARE LACKING CONSIDERING THE WEAK LLJ PROGGED OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS. WITH THAT SAID... WE WILL KEEP MULING OVER THE
DATA... BUT CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT LOOK FAIRLY QUIET AT THE MOMENT.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

AVIATION...
18/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK DISTURBANCE AND RESIDUAL MCV INFLUENCE CONT TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY AND THIS WILL BE THE LOCATION MOST LIKELY
TO SEE SOME EARLY EVENING STORMS. HOWEVER WITH A FEW WEAK SFC
BOUNDARIES AND SOME RESIDUAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SEE ISOLATED
STORMS THIS EVENING NORTH INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED STORMS UNTIL AROUND
SUNDOWN. OTHERWISE... ABOUT THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIP MAY RESIDE
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER WAVE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS KANSAS. HAVE REINTRODUCED SOME
LOW POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY EVENING.

BEYOND MONDAY... MUCH OF THE WEEK WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT BUILDS NORTHWEST FROM THE GULF COAST. THIS
WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND HOT. CURRENTLY... DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE
NEED FOR HEAT ADVISORY AS WE CONT TO DRY THINGS OUT THE AFTN HEAT
INDICES SHOULD GRADUALLY DECLINE EVEN WITH SIMILAR DAY-TO-DAY
TEMPS. HIGHEST HEAT INDICES WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SOME AREAS NEAR 105 DURING THE AFTN HOURS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO HOWEVER TRY AND KNOCK THIS RIDGE BACK
SOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND AS STRONGER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE TO THE WEST.
THIS MAY RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE FOR A SFC FRONT TO APPROACH THE
AREA BYE THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  72  99  73 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         99  72 101  70 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  99  73 101  74 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK          100  68 100  69 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     93  71  98  73 /  10  10  10  20
DURANT OK         91  72  98  74 /  60  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/02



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