Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 140946
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
346 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Observations early this morning reveal low clouds and drizzle at
several location. Some fog is occurring but is generally light
with visibilities at most locations above two miles. Forecast
challenge continues to be extensive moisture below capping EML
resulting in periods of drizzle and/or shallow convective showers
for the next few days. Weather impacts should be fairly minor
through the period, although windy and warm conditions may result
in fire weather concerns by Friday (see fire weather section
below for details).

Very weak instability in a shallow layer below the capping
EML has been enough for shallow convective elements near and south
of I-44 early this morning. Measurable rainfall so far has been
limited to just a few hundredths of an inch with these showers
and/or persistent light drizzle. Deepening mixed layer and slight
rising of cloud bases should occur by late morning resulting in
most of the drizzle diminishing. The except for perhaps north-
central Oklahoma where forecast soundings show the boundary layer
remaining most stable and low level saturation being the deepest.
The way we`ve handled this for the public forecast is to emphasize
drizzle and some fog through mid morning and then transitioned
wording to "slight chance of drizzle or sprinkles" for the midday
period across a good portion of the area, and then confined
drizzle to north-central Oklahoma during the afternoon and into
tonight.

On Wednesday, a cold front will move into the area and similar
thermal/moisture profiles to what we`ve seen the last few days
should yield some drizzle or shallow convective showers once
again. Stronger forcing will stay north of us so the cap will
remain.

Wednesday night into Thursday, southerly flow and low level
moisture advection will occur once again. It may take until later
in the morning before low levels moisten up enough for what will
probably be more shallow convective showers than drizzle due in
part by the time of day and increasing boundary layer mixing.
Showers/drizzle should persist across portions of the area (mainly
eastern half) into the night and possibly into early Friday. We
may have confined precipitation and clouds too far southeast
Friday and later forecasts may need to continue clouds/drizzle and
showers into early Friday across a larger portion of the area,
with clearing once Pacific front moves through. If the slowing
trend continues, we may need to significantly adjust temperatures
as well, but at this point it looks like at least the far west
will see anomalously warm temperatures as plume of warm downsloped
air moves east on strong west-southwesterly low level flow.

Near normal temperatures and dry conditions will return for the
weekend into early next week. Medium range models differ on
timing and position of the next shortwave that could impact the
area next Tuesday.

BRB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Anomalous warmth, and dry nature of post-frontal/dryline air
mass Friday afternoon, along with windy conditions, raises concern
for fire weather. Elevated to critical conditions may develop. A
slowing trend in medium range model guidance suggests that
clouds/cooler temps could linger longer across much of central
Oklahoma, and possibly western Oklahoma. This casts some doubt on
exactly how things will evolve, and may confine the more
significant threat to the Panhandles. We`ll continue to monitor
trends and refine the forecast as necessary. Post frontal
northwesterly winds could be quite strong on Saturday and dry air
mass may support a second period of elevated fire weather
conditions during the day on Saturday.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  64  58  62  46 /  20  10  30  10
Hobart OK         67  56  63  46 /  10  10  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  71  60  67  52 /  20  10  20  20
Gage OK           71  48  61  39 /  10  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     62  57  62  39 /  20  30  20  10
Durant OK         66  59  67  55 /  30  10  40  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

11/12



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