Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KOUN 261124
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
624 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
A NARROW BAND OF DENSE FG FROM NEAR KSPS TO KOKC WILL DISSIPATE
BETWEEN 1230Z AND 1500Z. MEANWHILE...A FEW SHRA WILL TREK E ACROSS
W OK AND W N TX THIS MORNING. THESE HIGH-BASED SHRA SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH OF A CONCERN TO AVIATION...UNLESS THEY DEVELOP INTO TSRA.
THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD NOON. STRONG INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT SEVERE TSRA WHEREVER THEY ARE ABLE TO
FORM...MOST LIKELY IN S OK AND N TX. THESE TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE NE INTO CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL OK THIS EVENING. THERE IS
GREAT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FORECAST AFTER ABOUT 06Z
TONIGHT...AS IT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX THAT ROLLED THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY IS
RECEDING SLOWLY EAST THIS MORNING. AT 4 AM...THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE CLOUD COVER WAS ALONG I-35. JUST TO THE WEST OF THIS
EDGE...DENSE FOG WAS FORMING IN THE VERY HUMID AIRMASS. WE HAVE
ELECTED TO INCLUDE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE...BEGINNING WITH COUNTIES THAT HAVE...OR SHOW A STRONG
PROMISE OF...VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/4 MILE. WE MAY HAVE TO EXTEND
THE ADVISORY TO THE NORTH OR WEST IF FOG SPREADS MUCH BEYOND ITS
CURRENT BOUNDS.

FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY NONDESCRIPT UPPER-AIR
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN LOOSELY-FOCUSED CONVECTION. THE
DRYLINE...OR PERHAPS THE NOT-AS-HUMID-LINE...MAY PROVIDE A BIT OF
A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND BEYOND. IN ANY
CASE...ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL HAVE A HUGE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
TO WORK WITH...AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO BECOME QUITE
SEVERE.

THURSDAY EVENING AND BEYOND...THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN BECOMES MORE
ACTIVE...WITH STRONGER WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH
A SURFACE FRONT THAT SHOULD ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE
GREATER SUPPORT FOR STORMS...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS...OF
COURSE...ASSUMES THAT THE COLD FRONT DOES ACTUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. IT TENDS TO BE FAIRLY DIFFICULT TO GET COLD
FRONTS DEEP INTO TEXAS THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE
THAT THE ECMWF IS BEING UNREALISTIC IN ITS PLAN OF TAKING THE
FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. THE GFS LOOKS PERHAPS A BIT
MORE IN LINE WITH CLIMATOLOGY...AND THIS WOULD ARGUE FOR HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  62  82  67 /  20  40  50  50
HOBART OK         80  60  83  65 /  20  20  40  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  85  65  86  66 /  30  30  40  40
GAGE OK           79  56  83  62 /  20  20  30  50
PONCA CITY OK     81  61  83  65 /  20  40  30  40
DURANT OK         82  66  83  66 /  20  40  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ019-020-
     023>030-038>041-044>046-050.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ086-
     088>090.

&&

$$

17/23/23



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.